February 2023

[eduggs]

1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

A tease of rain. We don't have cold enough air in place for the weekend. 

Actually cold air does seep in after the initial Saturday impulse but is quickly displaced before the pinched off ULL can rotate in some precipitation on Sun or even early Mon.

[JustinRP37]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

It's why people who say meteorology is a pseudoscience are wrong but what IS a pseudoscience is thinking that computing averages has any value whatsoever.  The climate has changed throughout the history of the planet, so we shouldn't be computing averages based on very subjective 30 year snapshots.  I wish we would stop talking about averages altogether as that makes it seem like the climate "should be" static.

 

In a thirty year period the climate should be stable. If you look at the history of the planet yes climate changes over thousands to hundreds of thousands of years. Not within 30 years. Rapid climate change has only be seen a handful of times and that is still in a period of hundreds of years which tended to lead to mass extinction events. What we are seeing right now with the shifts is rapid. Meteorology is NOT a pseudoscience. It is a peer reviewed science. All science is inexact. We are actually very good a predicting climate in the long term. We are not great at predicting weather out more than 5 days in the future. That does not make it a pseudoscience. What does tend to happen is Twitter comes along and certain people who talk about cold and snow gain more followers and thus more prominence. Unfortunately many still cling to whatever met or model shows the most snow or cold then get mad when that doesn’t happen. I’m very nervous that people aren’t paying more attention to the subtle queues we are being given. Even in years where we had plentiful snowfall recently in most of them the days of snow cover was still below average. Last I looked at the data it was something like 2 out of the last 15 winters met the average number of days with snow cover over an inch. It isn’t always about the amount of snow but what about duration? I’m 37 years old and can tell you winter is our most changing season. 

[JustinRP37]

5 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Maybe.

I was just trying to point out the difference between atmospheric scientists, climatologists, hydrologists with graduate degrees, PhDs etc who do research vs. "weather forecasters" who tend not to utilize the scientific method as readily. Certainly there is overlap, but in a general sense there is a divide between the types who study meteorology in college vs. physics or chemistry.

There are plenty of meteorologists with PhDs. Don’t confuse a media meteorologist with credentials. There are some TV meteorologists without and formal met training. There are also many with great credentials too. 

[donsutherland1]

It will be mostly cloudy tonight. A few places could see a shower. The clouds and possible shower will be the result of a warm front's moving across the region.

In the wake of the frontal passage, tomorrow will be noticeably milder. Generally above normal and much above normal temperatures will continue into at least early next week. During the February 10-11 period, there is a chance that a storm could bring some frozen precipitation to interior areas. Model uncertainty has decreased during the most recent cycles.

The potential exists for temperatures to run generally above to much above normal through mid-month. Both the CFSv2 and EPS weeklies show much above normal temperatures through the second week of February. Afterward, temperatures could cool during the closing 7-10 days of the month. There is disagreement among the ensembles about whether it will turn colder for a sustained period or just briefly.

In terms of ENSO, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly went positive for the week centered around February 1st. That is the first positive reading since a +0.2 anomaly during the week centered around October 6, 2021.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around February 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions are beginning to fade and they should evolve to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring.

The SOI was +12.78 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.247 today.

On February 5 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.800 (RMM). The February 4-adjusted amplitude was 1.674 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 80% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 39.0° (3.1° above normal).

 

[KeithB]

22 hours ago, eduggs said:

Not saying the GFS or EC will happen, but big fail for the Mets and amateurs alike who obsess over fantasy pattern changes, long range anomaly charts, ENSO states, and stratospheric warming events. The never ending quest for a simple causal relationship to predict snowstorms coming far out in fantasy land has led to an atrophying of actual mid-range forecasting skills. "Patterns" don't produce local snowstorms. Particular combinations of synoptic features do.

 

Yea. Long term weather predicting couldn't be worse. It's far better to predict "historical averages", in a forecast 30 days out for example, then what any computer data is outputting. That said, in a changing climate, historical averages can be pretty erroneous too. And shorter term historical averages doesn't really work either, as the sample needs to be somewhat large.  

[KeithB]

6 hours ago, WX-PA said:

We are experiencing the worst winter ever. I mean everything is going wrong. MJO now looks like it will die again before phase 8 lol..Forget about late February and March..the pattern will not change until El nino takes over..The big question is can we break the snowless winter record from 72-73?..What do you think?

I am starting to think we can....and I am also starting to think about moving. This lack of snow is way too aggravating

[KeithB]

1 hour ago, JustinRP37 said:

In a thirty year period the climate should be stable. If you look at the history of the planet yes climate changes over thousands to hundreds of thousands of years. Not within 30 years. Rapid climate change has only be seen a handful of times and that is still in a period of hundreds of years which tended to lead to mass extinction events. What we are seeing right now with the shifts is rapid. Meteorology is NOT a pseudoscience. It is a peer reviewed science. All science is inexact. We are actually very good a predicting climate in the long term. We are not great at predicting weather out more than 5 days in the future. That does not make it a pseudoscience. What does tend to happen is Twitter comes along and certain people who talk about cold and snow gain more followers and thus more prominence. Unfortunately many still cling to whatever met or model shows the most snow or cold then get mad when that doesn’t happen. I’m very nervous that people aren’t paying more attention to the subtle queues we are being given. Even in years where we had plentiful snowfall recently in most of them the days of snow cover was still below average. Last I looked at the data it was something like 2 out of the last 15 winters met the average number of days with snow cover over an inch. It isn’t always about the amount of snow but what about duration? I’m 37 years old and can tell you winter is our most changing season. 

Great post!

[wishcast_hater]

https://electroverse.co/north-america-hit-again-europe-snow/


.

[donsutherland1]

 

16 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

https://electroverse.co/north-america-hit-again-europe-snow/


.

It was a two day severe Arctic shot in an unseasonably warm winter. The coming warmth will wipe out February’s cool anomalies in the region.

And a map showing the sad tale of this winter in much of the Northern Hemisphere:

[winterwx21]

4 hours ago, eduggs said:

Actually cold air does seep in after the initial Saturday impulse but is quickly displaced before the pinched off ULL can rotate in some precipitation on Sun or even early Mon.

Yeah it's very borderline cold air. It might've been just barely cold enough to get some frozen on saturday, especially to the northwest of NYC. But as I mentioned in my post this afternoon  when talking about the UKMET model (and you pointed out in your post) bringing the storm far enough north to give us precip, the problem is the little bit of cold air we had is gone by the time the storm finally makes it up to us. So we're looking at rain if it does make it up here sunday into monday.

In fact I see that the new run of the CMC tonight does bring the storm north, and some rain moves in late in the afternoon sunday. Unfortunately with the cold air gone by then, it would be rain even well to the northwest of NYC. We needed a storm to happen for us on saturday to have any slim hope, but there's no hope with it holding off until late sunday like the models are showing. This horrendous winter continues. It appears that we're gonna be waiting a long time to have a winter storm threat. Maybe something will happen end of February or March. 

[Winterweatherlover]

Really bad timing with the storm coming up the coast just as the cold air retreats, even 12 hours earlier and it could be a different story but this is winter 2023. 

[eduggs]

7 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah it's very borderline cold air. It might've been just barely cold enough to get some frozen on saturday, especially to the northwest of NYC. But as I mentioned in my post this afternoon  when talking about the UKMET model (and you pointed out in your post) bringing the storm far enough north to give us precip, the problem is the little bit of cold air we had is gone by the time the storm finally makes it up to us. So we're looking at rain if it does make it up here sunday into monday.

In fact I see that the new run of the CMC tonight does bring the storm north, and some rain moves in late in the afternoon sunday. Unfortunately with the cold air gone by then, it would be rain even well to the northwest of NYC. We needed a storm to happen for us on saturday to have any slim hope, but there's no hope with it holding off until late sunday like the models are showing. This horrendous winter continues. It appears that we're gonna be waiting a long time to have a winter storm threat. Maybe something will happen end of February or March. 

I don't like when the cold air source gets pinched off like most models are showing. And for the reason that you describe - the mid-levels get torched. That said, a good number of 18z GEFS and especially EPS members showed showed some snow for our area, so I don't agree that there is no hope for a Sun or even early Mon event.

[Winterweatherlover]

18 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I don't like when the cold air source gets pinched off like most models are showing. And for the reason that you describe - the mid-levels get torched. That said, a good number of 18z GEFS and especially EPS members showed showed some snow for our area, so I don't agree that there is no hope for a Sun or even early Mon event.

Maybe inland, I don’t see how the coast can get snow in this setup without drastic changes in the setup.  

[eduggs]

10 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Maybe inland, I don’t see how the coast can get snow in this setup without drastic changes in the setup.  

If a model shows it, it can probably happen. I'm not optimistic either, but snow is still plausible. One good thing is the delayed progression of the now bowling ball modeled ULL allows colder surface air to filter in. In earlier modeled scenarios, the mid-levels cooled faster than the surface. Now we will be fighting the rapidly warming mid-levels instead.

[wdrag]

Looks like the GFS has been the first to consistently highlight a potential heavy wet snow stripe associated with an ECWS. The EC-EPS got on board yesterday, and the Canadian finally capitulated overnight. Now the question, how far north and west does this actually get, and the thermal profiles where it does precipitate. You all will be all over it.  Not much I can add. My first concern is the interior highlands of the Carolinas and western VA high terrain for possible heavy wet branch clingy snow. Still early and plenty of uncertainty, especially ptype. EDUGGS had the most faith.  WBC is not yet on board.  I'd monitor their afternoon D4 winter outlook for an updated idea of their concerns, if they do have any and if the early arriving 12z/8 model runs continue supporting.   I'm pretty confident if this precip shield makes it to the I84 corridor including nw NJ hilly areas, that it will be mostly snow. 00z/8 EPS fun.

Added raw EPS freezing rain, which I usually take about 30% for glaze thickness.  Also the +snowdepth change from the EPS. I like conservative in marginal temperature situations, especially D5.  

[donsutherland1]

New York City's snow season futility rankings through February 7th:

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will be partly sunny and milder. High temperatures will reach the lower 50s in most areas. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 51°

Newark: 53°

Philadelphia: 54°

It will be unseasonably mild through Friday.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 40.9°; 15-Year: 40.9°

Newark: 30-Year: 41.6°; 15-Year: 41.7°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 42.8°; 15-Year: 42.7°

[wishcast_hater]

Had freezing rain and ice pellets last night. Everything coated this morning with a temp of 28°. Roads were a bit slippery until I hit the main road which was salted.


.

[MJO812]

48 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Looks like the GFS has been the first to consistently highlight a potential heavy wet snow stripe associated with an ECWS. The EC-EPS got on board yesterday, and the Canadian finally capitulated overnight. Now the question, how far north and west does this actually get, and the thermal profiles where it does precipitate. You all will be all over it.  Not much I can add. My first concern is the interior highlands of the Carolinas and western VA high terrain for possible heavy wet branch clingy snow. Still early and plenty of uncertainty, especially ptype. EDUGGS had the most faith.  WBC is not yet on board.  I'd monitor their afternoon D4 winter outlook for an updated idea of their concerns, if they do have any and if the early arriving 12z/8 model runs continue supporting.   I'm pretty confident if this precip shield makes it to the I84 corridor including nw NJ hilly areas, that it will be mostly snow. 00z/8 EPS fun.

Added raw EPS freezing rain, which I usually take about 30% for glaze thickness.  Also the +snowdepth change from the EPS. I like conservative in marginal temperature situations, especially D5.  

1-3 inches would be a win

[bluewave]

The 5 year snowfall average is under 20” at several locations since 2018-2019. The WPAC warm pool preventing the El Niño from coupling in 2018-2019 began this period. So a persistent La Niña background state has dominated most years. While long term averages at places like NYC are still in the 20s, these 5 year averages can be useful at detecting change points. If the current 5 year average represents a shift, then NYC 30 year average snowfall may eventually dip under 20” in the long range. 

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/csi-enso-case-missing-central-pacific-rainfall

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	Season
Mean	0.0	1.3	2.6	4.2	6.2	2.7	T	16.4
2022-2023	0.0	0.0	T	T	0.4	M	M	0.4
2021-2022	0.0	T	0.2	15.3	2.0	0.4	0.0	17.9
2020-2021	0.0	0.0	10.5	2.1	26.0	T	0.0	38.6
2019-2020	0.0	0.0	2.5	2.3	T	T	T	4.8
2018-2019	0.0	6.4	T	1.1	2.6	10.4	0.0	20.5

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	Season
Mean	T	1.3	3.3	4.3	7.6	2.7	T	18.6
2022-2023	0.0	T	0.1	T	0.3	M	M	0.4
2021-2022	0.0	0.1	0.1	14.6	2.3	0.8	0.0	17.9
2020-2021	T	0.0	11.9	3.2	30.6	T	0.0	45.7
2019-2020	0.0	T	4.2	2.7	T	T	T	6.9
2018-2019	0.0	6.4	T	0.9	4.8	9.9	0.0	22.0

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	Season
Mean	T	0.9	2.5	7.3	6.4	1.4	T	18.2
2022-2023	0.0	0.0	0.4	T	0.3	M	M	0.7
2021-2022	0.0	T	0.3	31.8	3.3	1.6	0.0	37.0
2020-2021	T	0.0	7.5	1.1	24.9	T	T	33.5
2019-2020	0.0	0.1	4.2	2.5	0.0	T	T	6.8
2018-2019	0.0	4.3	T	0.9	3.5	4.1	T	12.8

 

[Brian5671]

Icy here this morning.   Public works caught off guard-no salt and schools on time...

[Volcanic Winter]

Man, am I happy 1/29 worked out for me last year. Didn’t realize how much I’d be clinging to that storm. I will ALWAYS take the cold, always. I know occasionally it works against us, I know it’s not always “needed,” but there was nothing sweeter than getting 16 inches of powder at a wintry 22f. There is nothing worse than a good track coastal with temp issues even up through NYC. That’s just… painful. 

I’m expecting nothing but counting rain bands down here, but I really hope you guys further north get something out of this. Fingers crossed. 

[EastonSN+]

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The 5 year snowfall average is under 20” at several locations since 2018-2019. The WPAC warm pool preventing the El Niño from coupling in 2018-2019 began this period. So a persistent La Niña background state has dominated most years. While long term averages at places like NYC are still in the 20s, these 5 year averages can be useful at detecting change points. If the current 5 year average represents a shift, then NYC 30 year average snowfall may eventually dip under 20” in the long range. 

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/csi-enso-case-missing-central-pacific-rainfall

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	Season
Mean	0.0	1.3	2.6	4.2	6.2	2.7	T	16.4
2022-2023	0.0	0.0	T	T	0.4	M	M	0.4
2021-2022	0.0	T	0.2	15.3	2.0	0.4	0.0	17.9
2020-2021	0.0	0.0	10.5	2.1	26.0	T	0.0	38.6
2019-2020	0.0	0.0	2.5	2.3	T	T	T	4.8
2018-2019	0.0	6.4	T	1.1	2.6	10.4	0.0	20.5

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	Season
Mean	T	1.3	3.3	4.3	7.6	2.7	T	18.6
2022-2023	0.0	T	0.1	T	0.3	M	M	0.4
2021-2022	0.0	0.1	0.1	14.6	2.3	0.8	0.0	17.9
2020-2021	T	0.0	11.9	3.2	30.6	T	0.0	45.7
2019-2020	0.0	T	4.2	2.7	T	T	T	6.9
2018-2019	0.0	6.4	T	0.9	4.8	9.9	0.0	22.0

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	Season
Mean	T	0.9	2.5	7.3	6.4	1.4	T	18.2
2022-2023	0.0	0.0	0.4	T	0.3	M	M	0.7
2021-2022	0.0	T	0.3	31.8	3.3	1.6	0.0	37.0
2020-2021	T	0.0	7.5	1.1	24.9	T	T	33.5
2019-2020	0.0	0.1	4.2	2.5	0.0	T	T	6.8
2018-2019	0.0	4.3	T	0.9	3.5	4.1	T	12.8

 

Can't wait for this background state to change. Hope it does not have to wait until another super Nino to flip. 

[bluewave]

37 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Man, am I happy 1/29 worked out for me last year. Didn’t realize how much I’d be clinging to that storm. I will ALWAYS take the cold, always. I know occasionally it works against us, I know it’s not always “needed,” but there was nothing sweeter than getting 16 inches of powder at a wintry 22f. There is nothing worse than a good track coastal with temp issues even up through NYC. That’s just… painful. 

I’m expecting nothing but counting rain bands down here, but I really hope you guys further north get something out of this. Fingers crossed. 

The one good thing we can say about the guidance from 7 days out was it saw the coastal storm signal. But the slower evolution and cutting off allowed heights to rise too much in advance of the storm. So their won’t be much cold available when the storm arrives.

New run

Old run

 

 

 

 

[EastonSN+]

18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The 5 year snowfall average is under 20” at several locations since 2018-2019. The WPAC warm pool preventing the El Niño from coupling in 2018-2019 began this period. So a persistent La Niña background state has dominated most years. While long term averages at places like NYC are still in the 20s, these 5 year averages can be useful at detecting change points. If the current 5 year average represents a shift, then NYC 30 year average snowfall may eventually dip under 20” in the long range. 

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/csi-enso-case-missing-central-pacific-rainfall

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	Season
Mean	0.0	1.3	2.6	4.2	6.2	2.7	T	16.4
2022-2023	0.0	0.0	T	T	0.4	M	M	0.4
2021-2022	0.0	T	0.2	15.3	2.0	0.4	0.0	17.9
2020-2021	0.0	0.0	10.5	2.1	26.0	T	0.0	38.6
2019-2020	0.0	0.0	2.5	2.3	T	T	T	4.8
2018-2019	0.0	6.4	T	1.1	2.6	10.4	0.0	20.5

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	Season
Mean	T	1.3	3.3	4.3	7.6	2.7	T	18.6
2022-2023	0.0	T	0.1	T	0.3	M	M	0.4
2021-2022	0.0	0.1	0.1	14.6	2.3	0.8	0.0	17.9
2020-2021	T	0.0	11.9	3.2	30.6	T	0.0	45.7
2019-2020	0.0	T	4.2	2.7	T	T	T	6.9
2018-2019	0.0	6.4	T	0.9	4.8	9.9	0.0	22.0

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	Season
Mean	T	0.9	2.5	7.3	6.4	1.4	T	18.2
2022-2023	0.0	0.0	0.4	T	0.3	M	M	0.7
2021-2022	0.0	T	0.3	31.8	3.3	1.6	0.0	37.0
2020-2021	T	0.0	7.5	1.1	24.9	T	T	33.5
2019-2020	0.0	0.1	4.2	2.5	0.0	T	T	6.8
2018-2019	0.0	4.3	T	0.9	3.5	4.1	T	12.8

 

Looking at the graph, it's shocking how great 2000 through 2018 were. Really the best period since 1900 to 1920. 

can you run that for 1920 to today? I do not like to compare to the 1800s as we were still emerging from the mini ice age.

[MJO812]

Eps has a more defined low for this weekend in a good spot but no cold air.

Can't make this up at all

Smh

[EastonSN+]

Just in time for spring.....

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Looking at the graph, it's shocking how great 2000 through 2018 were. Really the best period since 1900 to 1920. 

can you run that for 1920 to today? I do not like to compare to the 1800s as we were still emerging from the mini ice age.

 

Since 1920 in NYC, there is no snowfall trend. But much more volatility in the 5 year averages since the 90s. So years with higher highs and lower lows. The 2010s was the best decade for snowfall in the last 100 years. But we have also seen several years with lowest snowfall rankings since the 1990s. 
 

 

[the_other_guy]

There is no cold air.

 

The models were grasping onto a thread the needle scenario. CPK has a shot at seeing 32F briefly on Saturday night.

This is like rooting for a snowstorm in April.

 

So, we didnt miss out on anything. This was/is a Hail Mary when you are down by 14.

[bluewave]

34 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Can't wait for this background state to change. Hope it does not have to wait until another super Nino to flip. 

Yeah, the rapid expansion of the WPAC warm pool has been one of the biggest climate drivers in recent years.