February 2023

[WX-PA]

We are experiencing the worst winter ever. I mean everything is going wrong. MJO now looks like it will die again before phase 8 lol..Forget about late February and March..the pattern will not change until El nino takes over..The big question is can we break the snowless winter record from 72-73?..What do you think?

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Pulling ahead of 1998 for lowest snowfall by February 7th.

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Feb 7	Missing Count
1	2023-02-07	0.4	1
2	1998-02-07	0.5	0
3	1919-02-07	0.6	0
4	1900-02-07	1.1	0
5	1914-02-07	1.6	0
6	1973-02-07	1.8	0
7	1901-02-07	2.1	2
8	1992-02-07	2.2	0
9	1906-02-07	2.5	0
10	2007-02-07	2.6	0

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Feb 7	Missing Count
1	2023-02-07	0.7	1
2	1998-02-07	1.0	0
3	1973-02-07	1.5	0
4	2007-02-07	1.9	0
5	1969-02-07	3.0	0
6	2008-02-07	3.4	0
7	2002-02-07	3.7	1
8	2012-02-07	4.1	0
9	1992-02-07	4.3	0
10	1997-02-07	4.5	0

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Feb 7	Missing Count
1	2023-02-07	0.4	1
2	1973-02-07	1.1	0
3	1992-02-07	1.5	0
4	1931-02-07	3.0	123
5	1997-02-07	3.5	0
6	2002-02-07	3.6	0
7	1998-02-07	3.8	0
8	2007-02-07	3.9	0
9	1932-02-07	4.1	0
10	2008-02-07	4.3	0
-	1993-02-07	4.3	0

What about for JFK and LGA Chris?

 

[vegan_edible]

im gonna cross my fingers for this weekend but definitely doesnt look promising... hopefully el nino next year helps us???

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Records:

 

Highs:

EWR: 60 (2020)
LGA: 58 (2020)
NYC: 56 (2020)

 

Lows:

NYC: 1 (1910)
EWR: 5 (1993)
LGA: 5 (1993)

 

Historical:

1812: The Hard Shock of the New Madrid Earthquake series strikes the area around the small town of New Madrid, Missouri. A three-mile-long island, Island #32, was completely sunk! The Mississippi River once again ran backward. This major shock marked the beginning of the end of New Madrid's extended ordeal, even though aftershocks would continue to be felt for years, and the fault is still active.

 

 

1861 - The temperature at Gouverneur, NY, bottomed out at -40 degrees, a drop of 70 degrees in one day. Two days later the mercury hit 55 degrees. (David Ludlum)

1861 - Hanover, NH, plunged from 37 degrees at 1 PM on the 7th to 32 degrees below zero at 7 AM on the 8th, and West Cummington MA plummeted 80 degrees to -32 degrees. Boston MA plunged from 46 degrees to -14 degrees, and on the 11th was back up to 60 degrees. (7th-8th) (The Weather Channel)

1904: A small fire in the business district of Baltimore, Maryland becomes wind-whipped into an uncontrollable conflagration that engulfs a large portion of the city by evening.

1933: The USS Ramapo, a 478 ft. Navy oiler was traveling from Manila to San Diego when it encountered the tallest rogue wave ever recorded. The wave measured 112 feet in height was caused by 70 mph winds over a broad fetch of the ocean.

1934 - A deep freeze made it possible to drive from Bay Shore to Fire Island NY. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

 

1978 - The worst winter storm of record struck coastal New England. The storm produced 27.5 inches of snow at Boston, and nearly 50 inches in northeastern Rhode Island. The fourteen foot tide at Portland ME was probably the highest of the century. Winds gusted to 79 mph at Boston, and reached 92 mph at Chatham MA. A hurricane size surf caused 75 deaths and 500 million dollars damage. (David Ludlum)

1987 - Low pressure in Manitoba, Canada, pulled warm air up from the Gulf of Mexico, and more than forty cities in the north central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date, including North Platte NE and Rapid City SD with readings of 73 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Twenty-two cities in the eastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Binghamton NY with a reading of 5 degrees below zero. Snow blanketed southern Louisiana, with three inches reported at Cameron. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Twenty-five cities in the western U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date. Lows of 16 at Las Vegas NV, 26 at Bakersfield CA, -29 degrees at Milford UT, and -16 degrees at Reno NV were February records. The low of 43 degrees below zero at Boca CA was a state record for the month of February. In Utah, lows of -32 degrees at Bryce Canyon, -27 degrees at Delta, -29 degrees at Dugway, and -38 degrees at Vernal were all-time records for those locations. (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - A slow moving cold front spread heavy snow across the state of Utah. Storm totals ranged up to 31 inches at Alta, with 24 inches at reported Brighton and 23 inches at Snowbird. Bitter cold weather prevailed across Alaska for the thirteenth day in a row, with morning lows of -42 degrees at Fairbanks, -48 degrees at Nenana, and -54 degrees at Bettles. Anchorage AK reported a record low of 23 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

2017: Six tornadoes traveled across southern Louisiana. The strongest tornado, an EF-3, impacted eastern New Orleans. 

 

I forgot how cold it was in 1993....

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, EasternLI said:

Well, it can't get much worse 

I don't hate la nina. Some of them can be good. This one just has it all wrong lol. Tired of it though, I welcome a change. 

Some of them have been amazing for snow.

Also let's not forget that el ninos have been among our worst winters ever too.

ENSO only controls about 20% of the winter outcome here

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Wow, 10,211.7 inches of snow in NC has to be close to the record snowfall, no?

some of our worst winters had snowstorms down there like 1972-73 and 2001-02

 

[LibertyBell]

48 minutes ago, WarrenCtyWx said:

I think 1914 had a very snowy period later in February and March.

That might have been a triple phaser

[SnoSki14]

29 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

We are experiencing the worst winter ever. I mean everything is going wrong. MJO now looks like it will die again before phase 8 lol..Forget about late February and March..the pattern will not change until El nino takes over..The big question is can we break the snowless winter record from 72-73?..What do you think?

Yeah this is one for the record books. We will challenge the futility record for lack of snow + warmth (already #3). 

I don't need a pity March snow either that melts the next day or a miserable March (30 & 40s with rain) either. 

[Great Snow 1717]

25 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Some of them have been amazing for snow.

Also let's not forget that el ninos have been among our worst winters ever too.

ENSO only controls about 20% of the winter outcome here

 

I'm hoping for a La/EL Nothing next winter.....with that said bet on the strongest EL Nino ever...

[bluewave]

50 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

What about for JFK and LGA Chris?

 

Lowest snowfall at both stations ahead of 1998 and 1973.

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Feb 7	Missing Count
1	2023-02-07	0.2	1
2	1998-02-07	0.7	0
3	1973-02-07	0.8	0
4	2007-02-07	1.7	0
5	1992-02-07	2.8	0
6	2008-02-07	2.9	0
7	2012-02-07	3.1	0
8	1997-02-07	3.4	0
9	1975-02-07	3.5	0
10	1993-02-07	3.6	0

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Feb 7	Missing Count
1	2023-02-07	0.6	1
2	1973-02-07	1.5	0
3	2007-02-07	1.9	0
4	1998-02-07	2.4	0
5	2008-02-07	2.7	0
6	1992-02-07	2.8	0
7	2002-02-07	3.3	0
-	1997-02-07	3.3	0
8	2013-02-07	4.0	0
9	2020-02-07	4.6	0
10	2012-02-07	5.1	0

[CIK62]

0% till Sunday/Monday then dead till the 18th, when some tail end period snow might happen.      Basically FORGET SNOW for the City till week 3 when I am sure you all will be able to muster up some wet flakes to make at least one snowball.

Here is your first BN Week:       The 30-Day Period beginning Feb. 18 looks BN too.      That damn Gulf Stream won't cool and you really need Arctic air to do battle with it for a biggie storm.    Comes too late.

Well at least March 1958 had 16" here.        However not a good analog since it snowed nicely all season too.

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, WarrenCtyWx said:

I think 1914 had a very snowy period later in February and March.

1913-1914 didn't only have the March blizzard, which dumped 14.5" of snow in New York City. It was a much colder winter than the current one. The December-February mean temperature was 32.1°. This winter is extremely likely to finish with a mean temperature of 39.0° or above and possibly 40.0° or above (average through February 6: 40.1°).

Since 1869, there have been 8 winters with a December-February mean temperature of 39° or above. Five (62.5%) had seasonal snowfall less than 10". 2 (25%) had seasonal snowfall of 30" or more: 2015-16: 32.8"; 2016-17: 30.8". Both those winters had 10" or more seasonal snowfall through February 7th and 20" or more through February 15th.
Of the winters referenced by @bluewave, a breakdown of seasonal snowfall through February 15th and final seasonal snowfall is below:

February 15: < 4" Seasonal Snowfall:

1899-1900: 1.1", Final: 13.6"
1900-1901: 3.1", Final: 5.1"
1918-1919: 0.8", Final: 3.8"
1972-1973: 1.8", Final: 2.8"
1997-1998: 0.5", Final: 5.5"

February 15: 4" or more Seasonal Snowfall:

1905-1906: 8.5", Final: 20.0"
1913-1914: 11.8", Final: 40.5"
2006-2007: 4.6", Final: 12.4"

[romba]

4 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

0% till Sunday/Monday then dead till the 18th, when some tail end period snow might happen.      Basically FORGET SNOW for the City till week 3 when I am sure you all will be able to muster up some wet flakes to make at least one snowball.

 

40-50% for 1 inch of snow or more the city seems high even for 384 hours, but that could be my negativity speaking

[donsutherland1]

30 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Lowest snowfall at both stations ahead of 1998 and 1973.

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Feb 7	Missing Count
1	2023-02-07	0.2	1
2	1998-02-07	0.7	0
3	1973-02-07	0.8	0
4	2007-02-07	1.7	0
5	1992-02-07	2.8	0
6	2008-02-07	2.9	0
7	2012-02-07	3.1	0
8	1997-02-07	3.4	0
9	1975-02-07	3.5	0
10	1993-02-07	3.6	0

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Feb 7	Missing Count
1	2023-02-07	0.6	1
2	1973-02-07	1.5	0
3	2007-02-07	1.9	0
4	1998-02-07	2.4	0
5	2008-02-07	2.7	0
6	1992-02-07	2.8	0
7	2002-02-07	3.3	0
-	1997-02-07	3.3	0
8	2013-02-07	4.0	0
9	2020-02-07	4.6	0
10	2012-02-07	5.1	0

That's not the "horse race" I wanted to be witnessing.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

That's not the "horse race" I wanted to be witnessing.

Every season since 1994 has been all or nothing on Long Island. More in the middle seasons before 1994. So our snowfall cycle has become more amplified or extreme with higher highs and lower lows. The 18-30” season used to be common with 1999 being the last one.
 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30	Missing Count
2023-04-30	0.7	83
2022-04-30	37.0	0
2021-04-30	33.5	0
2020-04-30	6.8	0
2019-04-30	12.8	0
2018-04-30	65.9	0
2017-04-30	39.3	0
2016-04-30	41.4	0
2015-04-30	63.7	0
2014-04-30	63.7	0
2013-04-30	46.9	0
2012-04-30	4.7	0
2011-04-30	55.3	0
2010-04-30	53.8	0
2009-04-30	36.2	0
2008-04-30	10.7	0
2007-04-30	9.0	0
2006-04-30	36.0	0
2005-04-30	58.8	0
2004-04-30	41.4	0
2003-04-30	54.6	0
2002-04-30	3.7	1
2001-04-30	38.9	1
2000-04-30	9.0	0
1999-04-30	19.4	0
1998-04-30	2.6	0
1997-04-30	12.4	1
1996-04-30	77.1	0
1995-04-30	5.1	0
1994-04-30	37.1	0

 

1993-04-30	28.6	0
1992-04-30	13.4	0
1991-04-30	13.8	0
1990-04-30	19.0	0
1989-04-30	19.0	0
1988-04-30	19.5	0
1987-04-30	22.5	0
1986-04-30	15.2	0
1985-04-30	26.9	0
1984-04-30	27.5	0
1983-04-30	31.9	0
1982-04-30	35.4	0
1981-04-30	20.8	0
1980-04-30	9.0	0
1979-04-30	28.1	0
1978-04-30	68.0	0
1977-04-30	28.0	0
1976-04-30	30.2	0
1975-04-30	14.5	0
1974-04-30	34.0	0
1973-04-30	4.5	0
1972-04-30	15.6	0
1971-04-30	18.9	0
1970-04-30	27.0	0
1969-04-30	33.5	0
1968-04-30	22.6	0
1967-04-30	50.8	0
1966-04-30	15.7	0
1965-04-30	39.5	0
1964-04-30	39.7	6

[Winterweatherlover]

18Z GFS brings the weekend storm back north, what a tease lol. 

[donsutherland1]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Every season since 1994 has been all or nothing on Long Island. More in the middle seasons before 1994. So our snowfall cycle has become more amplified or extreme with higher highs and lower lows. The 18-30” season used to be common with 1999 being the last one.
 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30	Missing Count
2023-04-30	0.7	83
2022-04-30	37.0	0
2021-04-30	33.5	0
2020-04-30	6.8	0
2019-04-30	12.8	0
2018-04-30	65.9	0
2017-04-30	39.3	0
2016-04-30	41.4	0
2015-04-30	63.7	0
2014-04-30	63.7	0
2013-04-30	46.9	0
2012-04-30	4.7	0
2011-04-30	55.3	0
2010-04-30	53.8	0
2009-04-30	36.2	0
2008-04-30	10.7	0
2007-04-30	9.0	0
2006-04-30	36.0	0
2005-04-30	58.8	0
2004-04-30	41.4	0
2003-04-30	54.6	0
2002-04-30	3.7	1
2001-04-30	38.9	1
2000-04-30	9.0	0
1999-04-30	19.4	0
1998-04-30	2.6	0
1997-04-30	12.4	1
1996-04-30	77.1	0
1995-04-30	5.1	0
1994-04-30	37.1	0

 

1993-04-30	28.6	0
1992-04-30	13.4	0
1991-04-30	13.8	0
1990-04-30	19.0	0
1989-04-30	19.0	0
1988-04-30	19.5	0
1987-04-30	22.5	0
1986-04-30	15.2	0
1985-04-30	26.9	0
1984-04-30	27.5	0
1983-04-30	31.9	0
1982-04-30	35.4	0
1981-04-30	20.8	0
1980-04-30	9.0	0
1979-04-30	28.1	0
1978-04-30	68.0	0
1977-04-30	28.0	0
1976-04-30	30.2	0
1975-04-30	14.5	0
1974-04-30	34.0	0
1973-04-30	4.5	0
1972-04-30	15.6	0
1971-04-30	18.9	0
1970-04-30	27.0	0
1969-04-30	33.5	0
1968-04-30	22.6	0
1967-04-30	50.8	0
1966-04-30	15.7	0
1965-04-30	39.5	0
1964-04-30	39.7	6

Yes. That is true. The standard deviation for seasonal snowfall has increased markedly from 12.9" (1964-93) to 22.5" (1994-2022).

[MJO812]

Great track but barely any cold air on the GFS

 

SMFH

[Franklin0529]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Great track but barely any cold air on the GFS

 

SMFH

Don't do it to yourself Anthony lol. Watch DC get pummeled an we get rain. When the storm gets to or latitude there is no cold air 

[vegan_edible]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Great track but barely any cold air on the GFS

 

SMFH

definitely better than the last run though

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yes. That is true. The standard deviation for seasonal snowfall has increased markedly from 12.9" (1964-93) to 22.5" (1994-2022).

A seasonal forecaster wouldn’t have had any misses since 2000 if they simply said the snowfall range at Islip would be outside 18-30”. But the real trick is knowing whether it would have been over 30” or under 18” before the seasons started. Getting some type of extreme has been a sure bet to make before the seasons began. 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

I'm hoping for a La/EL Nothing next winter.....with that said bet on the strongest EL Nino ever...

Yes I hate enso too, it would be nice not to have anything for a few years

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

A seasonal forecaster wouldn’t have had any misses since 2000 if they simply said the snowfall range at Islip would be outside the 18-30”. But the real trick is knowing whether it would have been over 30” or under 18” before the seasons started. But some type of extreme has been a sure bet to make before the seasons began. 

It's why people who say meteorology is a pseudoscience are wrong but what IS a pseudoscience is thinking that computing averages has any value whatsoever.  The climate has changed throughout the history of the planet, so we shouldn't be computing averages based on very subjective 30 year snapshots.  I wish we would stop talking about averages altogether as that makes it seem like the climate "should be" static.

 

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Don't do it to yourself Anthony lol. Watch DC get pummeled an we get rain. When the storm gets to or latitude there is no cold air 

DC wont get anything either

[LibertyBell]

22 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Every season since 1994 has been all or nothing on Long Island. More in the middle seasons before 1994. So our snowfall cycle has become more amplified or extreme with higher highs and lower lows. The 18-30” season used to be common with 1999 being the last one.
 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30	Missing Count
2023-04-30	0.7	83
2022-04-30	37.0	0
2021-04-30	33.5	0
2020-04-30	6.8	0
2019-04-30	12.8	0
2018-04-30	65.9	0
2017-04-30	39.3	0
2016-04-30	41.4	0
2015-04-30	63.7	0
2014-04-30	63.7	0
2013-04-30	46.9	0
2012-04-30	4.7	0
2011-04-30	55.3	0
2010-04-30	53.8	0
2009-04-30	36.2	0
2008-04-30	10.7	0
2007-04-30	9.0	0
2006-04-30	36.0	0
2005-04-30	58.8	0
2004-04-30	41.4	0
2003-04-30	54.6	0
2002-04-30	3.7	1
2001-04-30	38.9	1
2000-04-30	9.0	0
1999-04-30	19.4	0
1998-04-30	2.6	0
1997-04-30	12.4	1
1996-04-30	77.1	0
1995-04-30	5.1	0
1994-04-30	37.1	0

 

1993-04-30	28.6	0
1992-04-30	13.4	0
1991-04-30	13.8	0
1990-04-30	19.0	0
1989-04-30	19.0	0
1988-04-30	19.5	0
1987-04-30	22.5	0
1986-04-30	15.2	0
1985-04-30	26.9	0
1984-04-30	27.5	0
1983-04-30	31.9	0
1982-04-30	35.4	0
1981-04-30	20.8	0
1980-04-30	9.0	0
1979-04-30	28.1	0
1978-04-30	68.0	0
1977-04-30	28.0	0
1976-04-30	30.2	0
1975-04-30	14.5	0
1974-04-30	34.0	0
1973-04-30	4.5	0
1972-04-30	15.6	0
1971-04-30	18.9	0
1970-04-30	27.0	0
1969-04-30	33.5	0
1968-04-30	22.6	0
1967-04-30	50.8	0
1966-04-30	15.7	0
1965-04-30	39.5	0
1964-04-30	39.7	6

and 1999 was just barely in that range..... 19" is still below normal for us....how many were in the 20-29" range, Chris?  None I'm guessing.

 

[Winterweatherlover]

54 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Great track but barely any cold air on the GFS

 

SMFH

It would be odd for it to snow in DC/Baltimore be rain in Philly/NYC and then snow in Eastern CT/RI/SE Mass like GFS is showing. Not saying it's impossible but it just looks odd. 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023020718&fh=141&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=snku_acc-imp&m=gfs

[winterwx21]

59 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

18Z GFS brings the weekend storm back north, what a tease lol. 

A tease of rain. We don't have cold enough air in place for the weekend. 

[Winterweatherlover]

1 minute ago, winterwx21 said:

A tease of rain. We don't have cold enough air in place for the weekend. 

Depends on track/strength, it's not as simple as lack of cold air since DC gets snow on this run but definitely will need to thread the needle hard with this one. 

[winterwx21]

3 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

It would be odd for it to snow in DC/Baltimore be rain in Philly/NYC and then snow in Eastern CT/RI/SE Mass like GFS is showing. Not saying it's impossible but it just looks odd. 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023020718&fh=141&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=snku_acc-imp&m=gfs

The UKMET brings the storm north too, but is more realistic with rain except for way to the northwest. There just isn't much cold air. The GFS is a horrific crazy model that should be ignored. 

[eduggs]

11 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

inexact science is probably  a better term

 

Maybe.

I was just trying to point out the difference between atmospheric scientists, climatologists, hydrologists with graduate degrees, PhDs etc who do research vs. "weather forecasters" who tend not to utilize the scientific method as readily. Certainly there is overlap, but in a general sense there is a divide between the types who study meteorology in college vs. physics or chemistry.