February 2023

[bluewave]

18 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The Euro is probably closer to reality than the GFS...but the CMC/Icon idea of basically a miss or weak follow up wave is more likely.  The GFS failing to pull the entire baroclinic zone east and still taking a storm inland is probably not realistic at all

The GFS is pretty far behind the other major global models.

https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/headlines/
 

[EasternLI]

Not sold yet on a technical ssw even occurring. Some warming, sure, but the gefs seems to have backed down on wind reversal today at 00z. Plus, the 06z run now only has 60% of the members on board with it. So it's still possible it doesn't even occur this time either. I realize the eps weeklies were bullish yesterday. However, I'd prefer to see total agreement. Not going the other direction. Especially as we're getting inside of day 10 now. You'd really want to see a strong event too in hopes of impacting where it matters. This is just uninspiring so far IMO. I also agree with the sentiment that even if one should occur, it doesn't necessarily have to matter for us. This is always the case and should be baked into any thinking about this topic any year.

[bluewave]

Pulling ahead of 1998 for lowest snowfall by February 7th.

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Feb 7	Missing Count
1	2023-02-07	0.4	1
2	1998-02-07	0.5	0
3	1919-02-07	0.6	0
4	1900-02-07	1.1	0
5	1914-02-07	1.6	0
6	1973-02-07	1.8	0
7	1901-02-07	2.1	2
8	1992-02-07	2.2	0
9	1906-02-07	2.5	0
10	2007-02-07	2.6	0

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Feb 7	Missing Count
1	2023-02-07	0.7	1
2	1998-02-07	1.0	0
3	1973-02-07	1.5	0
4	2007-02-07	1.9	0
5	1969-02-07	3.0	0
6	2008-02-07	3.4	0
7	2002-02-07	3.7	1
8	2012-02-07	4.1	0
9	1992-02-07	4.3	0
10	1997-02-07	4.5	0

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Feb 7	Missing Count
1	2023-02-07	0.4	1
2	1973-02-07	1.1	0
3	1992-02-07	1.5	0
4	1931-02-07	3.0	123
5	1997-02-07	3.5	0
6	2002-02-07	3.6	0
7	1998-02-07	3.8	0
8	2007-02-07	3.9	0
9	1932-02-07	4.1	0
10	2008-02-07	4.3	0
-	1993-02-07	4.3	0

[EastonSN+]

30 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Not sold yet on a technical ssw even occurring. Some warming, sure, but the gefs seems to have backed down on wind reversal today at 00z. Plus, the 06z run now only has 60% of the members on board with it. So it's still possible it doesn't even occur this time either. I realize the eps weeklies were bullish yesterday. However, I'd prefer to see total agreement. Not going the other direction. Especially as we're getting inside of day 10 now. You'd really want to see a strong event too in hopes of impacting where it matters. This is just uninspiring so far IMO. I also agree with the sentiment that even if one should occur, it doesn't necessarily have to matter for us. This is always the case and should be baked into any thinking about this topic any year.

Annnnnd of course the wave dies again in 7.

We have a legit shot at lowest historical snowfall.

Good to get it out of the way! Prolly won't see a winter this bad again in our lifetimes.

[SACRUS]

Records:

 

Highs:

EWR: 60 (2020)
LGA: 58 (2020)
NYC: 56 (2020)

 

Lows:

NYC: 1 (1910)
EWR: 5 (1993)
LGA: 5 (1993)

 

Historical:

1812: The Hard Shock of the New Madrid Earthquake series strikes the area around the small town of New Madrid, Missouri. A three-mile-long island, Island #32, was completely sunk! The Mississippi River once again ran backward. This major shock marked the beginning of the end of New Madrid's extended ordeal, even though aftershocks would continue to be felt for years, and the fault is still active.

 

 

1861 - The temperature at Gouverneur, NY, bottomed out at -40 degrees, a drop of 70 degrees in one day. Two days later the mercury hit 55 degrees. (David Ludlum)

1861 - Hanover, NH, plunged from 37 degrees at 1 PM on the 7th to 32 degrees below zero at 7 AM on the 8th, and West Cummington MA plummeted 80 degrees to -32 degrees. Boston MA plunged from 46 degrees to -14 degrees, and on the 11th was back up to 60 degrees. (7th-8th) (The Weather Channel)

1904: A small fire in the business district of Baltimore, Maryland becomes wind-whipped into an uncontrollable conflagration that engulfs a large portion of the city by evening.

1933: The USS Ramapo, a 478 ft. Navy oiler was traveling from Manila to San Diego when it encountered the tallest rogue wave ever recorded. The wave measured 112 feet in height was caused by 70 mph winds over a broad fetch of the ocean.

1934 - A deep freeze made it possible to drive from Bay Shore to Fire Island NY. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

 

1978 - The worst winter storm of record struck coastal New England. The storm produced 27.5 inches of snow at Boston, and nearly 50 inches in northeastern Rhode Island. The fourteen foot tide at Portland ME was probably the highest of the century. Winds gusted to 79 mph at Boston, and reached 92 mph at Chatham MA. A hurricane size surf caused 75 deaths and 500 million dollars damage. (David Ludlum)

1987 - Low pressure in Manitoba, Canada, pulled warm air up from the Gulf of Mexico, and more than forty cities in the north central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date, including North Platte NE and Rapid City SD with readings of 73 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Twenty-two cities in the eastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Binghamton NY with a reading of 5 degrees below zero. Snow blanketed southern Louisiana, with three inches reported at Cameron. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Twenty-five cities in the western U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date. Lows of 16 at Las Vegas NV, 26 at Bakersfield CA, -29 degrees at Milford UT, and -16 degrees at Reno NV were February records. The low of 43 degrees below zero at Boca CA was a state record for the month of February. In Utah, lows of -32 degrees at Bryce Canyon, -27 degrees at Delta, -29 degrees at Dugway, and -38 degrees at Vernal were all-time records for those locations. (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - A slow moving cold front spread heavy snow across the state of Utah. Storm totals ranged up to 31 inches at Alta, with 24 inches at reported Brighton and 23 inches at Snowbird. Bitter cold weather prevailed across Alaska for the thirteenth day in a row, with morning lows of -42 degrees at Fairbanks, -48 degrees at Nenana, and -54 degrees at Bettles. Anchorage AK reported a record low of 23 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

2017: Six tornadoes traveled across southern Louisiana. The strongest tornado, an EF-3, impacted eastern New Orleans. 

 

[USCG RS]

2 hours ago, Dark Star said:

Pseudo science?

I guess someone leaked my snow dance 

[EasternLI]

4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Annnnnd of course the wave dies again in 7.

We have a legit shot at lowest historical snowfall.

Good to get it out of the way! Prolly won't see a winter this bad again in our lifetimes.

Here's a great example of why extreme caution is always needed with those charts. If we look at what is actually occurring on the model. We can see the MJO wave moving right along. However, we can also see the warm pool convection associated with la nina never fades away enough as this is occurring. This renders the whole thing less effective. This is the destructive interference we sometimes mention. We'd really want something strong enough to fully disrupt that in order for more meaningful changes. Something we just haven't seen much this year. So that forecast crashing into the COD is really trying to say it's retaining its dominance in spite of the MJO. Which is a problem for us this year. That positioning right there is the anchor for a western trough. So we end up stuck with that as much as we are. Now, let's shift that thing closer to the central Pacific next year hopefully. Then you get a western ridge instead. 

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, EasternLI said:

Here's a great example of why extreme caution is always needed with those charts. If we look at what is actually occurring on the model. We can see the MJO wave moving right along. However, we can also see the warm pool convection associated with la nina never fades away enough as this is occurring. This renders the whole thing less effective. This is the destructive interference we sometimes mention. We'd really want something strong enough to fully disrupt that in order for more meaningful changes. Something we just haven't seen much this year. So that forecast crashing into the COD is really trying to say it's retaining its dominance in spite of the MJO. Which is a problem for us this year. That positioning right there is the anchor for a western trough. So we end up stuck with that as much as we are. Now, let's shift that thing closer to the central Pacific next year hopefully. Then you get a western ridge instead. 

IMO getting out of this 3 year la Nina will work wonders in so many ways.

 

[Franklin0529]

And poof. Just like that the storm is shredded an ots

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said:

And poof. Just like that the storm is shredded an ots

Cmc never had it and euro lost it last night. It was over then

[EasternLI]

13 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

IMO getting out of this 3 year la Nina will work wonders in so many ways.

 

Well, it can't get much worse 

I don't hate la nina. Some of them can be good. This one just has it all wrong lol. Tired of it though, I welcome a change. 

[brooklynwx99]

8 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

And poof. Just like that the storm is shredded an ots

it's not shredded, it's just south. even adjusting for ratios, that's still 6-8" of heavy, wet snow

[winterwx21]

5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Cmc never had it and euro lost it last night. It was over then

GFS is a horrendous model. CMC often leads the way with our winter storm threats. Hard to get interested unless CMC is showing something for us. 

[Volcanic Winter]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

it's not shredded, it's just south. even adjusting for ratios, that's still 6-8" of heavy, wet snow

Wow, 10,211.7 inches of snow in NC has to be close to the record snowfall, no?

[MJO812]

Models are so horrible this winter it's sad. We lost the GFS.

 

[Stormlover74]

Would be a final kick in the nuts if my parents in SC end up with more than us up here

[Volcanic Winter]

In all seriousness, thought it was okay for the GFS to show a storm to the south at this point as it normally corrects NW with time? Or is that no longer something the GFS does / and or not applicable in this set up? Genuinely asking. 

Didn’t have any expectations anyway as it seemed very, very low odds of a favorable outcome without any support from other models and warm temp profile. 

[winterwx21]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Models are so horrible this winter it's sad. We lost the GFS.

 

It's not as if we've had many legitimate winter storm threats get to a realistic range and then the more reliable models failed us. There have been hardly any realistic threats this winter. We just had a record warm January and now February is shaping up as another very warm month. Hard to get snow that way. It's more that we've just been in a very warm/unfavorable pattern than the models being horrible. GFS/NAM are terrible models that have teased us a few times, but the more reliable models have done a decent job. Follow the CMC. It never had anything for us next weekend and it will likely be right again. 

[Stormlover74]

4 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

In all seriousness, thought it was okay for the GFS to show a storm to the south at this point as it normally corrects NW with time? Or is that no longer something the GFS does / and or not applicable in this set up? Genuinely asking. 

Didn’t have any expectations anyway as it seemed very, very low odds of a favorable outcome without any support from other models and warm temp profile. 

If all the other models have a storm and the gfs is too far south it will correct north in the final 72 hours. When it's all alone it's always wrong

[mattinpa]

8 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

In all seriousness, thought it was okay for the GFS to show a storm to the south at this point as it normally corrects NW with time? Or is that no longer something the GFS does / and or not applicable in this set up? Genuinely asking. 

Didn’t have any expectations anyway as it seemed very, very low odds of a favorable outcome without any support from other models and warm temp profile. 

Well it is certainly too far away to give up on it. But yes, we like when the GFS is south - and I hope if it comes back that we get more support. I remember the GFS being right while alone more with bad outcomes.

[Snowshack]

3 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Annnnnd of course the wave dies again in 7.

We have a legit shot at lowest historical snowfall.

Good to get it out of the way! Prolly won't see a winter this bad again in our lifetimes.

 

I don't know - if you look at Don's futility chart six of those years are in the last 25 years.   Think its pretty likely we see awful winters like this again, along with some high snowfall years mixed in as well.   The endangered species is probably a wall to wall cold winter.  

[weatherpruf]

It isn't going to snow in any significant way this year is it? Maybe we can get a few slushy wet inches in March. It would be something. Happened in 92. Long time ago. 2019 had two late ones that evaporated as well.

[Dark Star]

4 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Don’t forget Youtube-ology. That’s when you make a YouTube channel with -science in the name and make videos about how Yellowstone is going to blow any day now and wipe out the US. 

Or spamology?  If nothing else, meteorology gave me an appreciation of mathematics (and how I am not as smart as I thought I was)...

[Dark Star]

2 hours ago, Franklin0529 said:

And poof. Just like that the storm is shredded an ots

Just like the balloon...

 

[Great Snow 1717]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Models are so horrible this winter it's sad. We lost the GFS.

 

For the most part the models are horrible beyond 3-4 days max. It is why I never believe in a pattern change that is modeled. I always wait for a pattern change to take place. Then I wait to see if the pattern change holds for at least a week.

Trusting the models is always going to lead to a lot more disappointment than happiness..  Far too many individuals take them as gospel. It is what led to so many individuals in the SNE subforums being wrong about this winter.  The record warmth in November was downplayed but it was a harbinger of things to come. The "heat" in November served as a warning sign but it was ignored and/or downplayed. As was La Nina.

People want it to be cold and snowy so they will ignore the obvious that is staring them in the face.

[Winterweatherlover]

Euro is a little NW although still not too close for our area. I guess still worth keeping an eye on tracking this for another day or so. 

[Great Snow 1717]

6 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Just like the balloon...

 

The Chinese shot the storm out of the sky in retaliation for shooting the balloon down...

[WarrenCtyWx]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Pulling ahead of 1998 for lowest snowfall by February 7th.

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Feb 7	Missing Count
1	2023-02-07	0.4	1
2	1998-02-07	0.5	0
3	1919-02-07	0.6	0
4	1900-02-07	1.1	0
5	1914-02-07	1.6	0
6	1973-02-07	1.8	0
7	1901-02-07	2.1	2
8	1992-02-07	2.2	0
9	1906-02-07	2.5	0
10	2007-02-07	2.6	0

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Feb 7	Missing Count
1	2023-02-07	0.7	1
2	1998-02-07	1.0	0
3	1973-02-07	1.5	0
4	2007-02-07	1.9	0
5	1969-02-07	3.0	0
6	2008-02-07	3.4	0
7	2002-02-07	3.7	1
8	2012-02-07	4.1	0
9	1992-02-07	4.3	0
10	1997-02-07	4.5	0

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Feb 7	Missing Count
1	2023-02-07	0.4	1
2	1973-02-07	1.1	0
3	1992-02-07	1.5	0
4	1931-02-07	3.0	123
5	1997-02-07	3.5	0
6	2002-02-07	3.6	0
7	1998-02-07	3.8	0
8	2007-02-07	3.9	0
9	1932-02-07	4.1	0
10	2008-02-07	4.3	0
-	1993-02-07	4.3	0

I think 1914 had a very snowy period later in February and March.

[mikem81]

11 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Euro is a little NW although still not too close for our area. I guess still worth keeping an eye on tracking this for another day or so. 

Look at the Ukie

[winterwx21]

32 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

Look at the Ukie

You have to go WAY to the northwest to see snow on the Ukie. If the storm holds off until late sunday like the UKMET is showing, it would be rain because what little cold air we had is gone by that point.