jm1220 Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 10 minutes ago, forkyfork said: this is the fastest arctic shot i've seen It’s comical how it’s in and out in a day. One way below average day in 30 torch days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 I should’ve savored the 09-16 period more than I did. Lived all over the state in that timeframe and just had too much going on to really appreciate it, but I have a feeling that will end up the best six - seven year stretch of winters (yes even with a bad one in there, lot easier to take sandwhiched between great winters) I’m likely to see. Was in Long Branch for that Dec 09 crushjob, then North Brunswick for Boxing Day, ultimately landing where I am now just before the 13-16 period where I actually had snow that persisted for weeks at a time. Obviously a rarity down here, because it requires a real winter not transient cold shots muted by torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 32 minutes ago, forkyfork said: this is the fastest arctic shot i've seen Hit and run! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 37 minutes ago, forkyfork said: this is the fastest arctic shot i've seen Remember the one in Late Jan 94 that went from 0 in the morning to 32 at midnight (so from 0 F to 0 C) and then 58 the next day on screaming southeast gusts and heavy rain? It was the third time we hit zero or below that month! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 48 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said: Can’t wait to be outside taking pictures of 0.4 inches (sorry, eternal optimist) of snow like a complete degenerate. What's the wife going to say? "I've seen more" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 14 hours ago, HailMan06 said: Lol at a 29F-16F split being considered bitter. it is for this "winter" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 5 hours ago, wdrag said: 06Z/30 GFS for the first time offer exceedingly minor measurable snowfall for NYC/PHL areas early Wed. EC shutout all this week. UK/Canadian, especially RGEM-RDPS while sagging a little south from previous days (I84) have been constantly advertising a period of snow for PA/NJ/LI Tue night, as has the ICON(not my favorite model). Don't know what to say except for my friends, I'm continuing the 'possibility' of a dusting. Also of note and probably already discussed: I want to think the EC has gone off the deep end at 132 hours or thereabouts, but offers all of our area the coldest temps of the winter, including brutally cold wind chills that if verified would be near WARNING for most of our subforum. Even without snow cover, the low temp in NYC could be the coldest since Jan 2019? I don't want to believe the subzero on the EC and will accept that it's too extreme which makes the wind chill too extreme. Does look like a serious 1-2 day cold shot. Getting below zero like VD 2014 would be interesting. I'd shoot for -2 this time areawide or lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 31 minutes ago, jm1220 said: It’s comical how it’s in and out in a day. One way below average day in 30 torch days. The record warmth during the first part of November was a harbinger of things to come but some individuals. chose to downplay it and/or ignore it altogether. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 12 minutes ago, MANDA said: Hit and run! It's so jarring that in the middle of an endless March we have this bitter cold shot for a day. Euro still shows subzero temps which is wild given how warm its been. Still think it'll moderate though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said: The 12Z HRRR now looks like the RGEM at 48...not anywhere near as north but basically worlds different than the NAM which at 12Z through 30 appears it won't bit yet 12z RGEM backed down somewhat, but it does still give the area a coating to 1 inch. You mentioned the HRRR and it does give us a coating of snow tuesday night as well. Not looking great, but the fact that the HRRR is seeing a little snow for us keeps this alive even though the RGEM backed down somewhat on the 12z run. Sad that this potential minor event is looking like our only chance. The pattern for February looks terrible after the brief arctic shot. If we don't get an inch wednesday morning, there is going to be the real threat of getting to late February without even an inch of snow. Worst winter ever. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It's so jarring that in the middle of an endless March we have this bitter cold shot for a day. Euro still shows subzero temps which is wild given how warm its been. Still think it'll moderate though endless March? we wish lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 25 minutes ago, MANDA said: Hit and run! Yup fast flow/no blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 11 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It's so jarring that in the middle of an endless March we have this bitter cold shot for a day. Euro still shows subzero temps which is wild given how warm its been. Still think it'll moderate though Brrr! Valentine's Day of 2016 was the coldest in New York City's history - ABC7 New York (abc7ny.com) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 Our first snow, if it happens, could very well occur in March like 97/98. A lot of funky things happen during seasonal transitions. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: endless March? we wish lol it can't be march because the north rays have not announced an injury to chris sale... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 GFS tries to get a storm going ahead of the arctic air. If that trends stronger we could get some snow ahead of it Additionally a stronger system will help bring that bitterly cold air further south. Ensembles have been trending stronger and further south with the arctic vortex and there's precedent for this back in December. If this continues then believe it or not we would see widespread subzero temperatures 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 43 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: 12z RGEM backed down somewhat, but it does still give the area a coating to 1 inch. You mentioned the HRRR and it does give us a coating of snow tuesday night as well. Not looking great, but the fact that the HRRR is seeing a little snow for us keeps this alive even though the RGEM backed down somewhat on the 12z run. Sad that this potential minor event is looking like our only chance. The pattern for February looks terrible after the brief arctic shot. If we don't get an inch wednesday morning, there is going to be the real threat of getting to late February without even an inch of snow. Worst winter ever. This may be another case of 200-250 jet inducing an area of snow. The HRRR has sometimes done a good job of seeing these events 36-48 here when other guidance is all over the place or showing nothing. It won't be a big event but it probably has decent potential to break the snowless streak 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: GFS tries to get a storm going ahead of the arctic air. If that trends stronger we could get some snow ahead of it Additionally a stronger system will help bring that bitterly cold air further south. Ensembles have been trending stronger and further south with the arctic vortex and there's precedent for this back in December. If this continues then believe it or not we would see widespread subzero temperatures I think that that event is probably dead because of the front running low over Quebec...it'll probably torch the mid levels or just manage to raise thicknesses enough that we would rain if that wave got far enough north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 Just took my winter mats out of my car. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I think that that event is probably dead because of the front running low over Quebec...it'll probably torch the mid levels or just manage to raise thicknesses enough that we would rain if that wave got far enough north I mostly agree. It's more of a catalyst to bring the PV further south instead of just a glancing blow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 9 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Just took my winter mats out of my car. Sorry man, this is brutal. Not even having the excitement of a trackable event even if it doesn’t pan out for one area or another is especially tough. It just feels like an endless shutout without any dopamine injection from a model showing at least a quasi-favorable outcome in the short range. Most fun I’ve had on AmericanWX was in the lead up to 1/29/22, and second most fun was going back and skimming the threads from old storms the past decade. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: Our first snow, if it happens, could very well occur in March like 97/98. A lot of funky things happen during seasonal transitions. I am hoping for a Feb 18 repeat. 60s and a couple 70 degrees days surrounding a fluke 3 to 6 inch event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 21 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I am hoping for a Feb 18 repeat. 60s and a couple 70 degrees days surrounding a fluke 3 to 6 inch event. I see a lot of rainers followed by seasonal cold and wash rinse repeat. Active pacific jet Mostly 40s & 50s 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 GEFS ensembles don't look terrible for a snow chance Wednesday. i don't think it's right to write this one off. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Just took my winter mats out of my car. Now I'm betting on this happening! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Just took my winter mats out of my car. That should do it. Now we will get some snow this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 30, 2023 Author Share Posted January 30, 2023 5 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said: That should do it. Now we will get some snow this winter. Not good enough. Everyone must sell their snowblowers and shovels 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said: This may be another case of 200-250 jet inducing an area of snow. The HRRR has sometimes done a good job of seeing these events 36-48 here when other guidance is all over the place or showing nothing. It won't be a big event but it probably has decent potential to break the snowless streak Yeah I see even 12z GFS now develops a little band of snow that drops a little half inch coating across northern NJ wednesday morning. Very minor, but it's looking more likely that we'll get a little something to finally end NYC's no measurable snow streak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 14 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said: That should do it. Now we will get some snow this winter. Even Kevin Garnett is all in!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 Well, at least there is one member that wants to play ball 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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