February 2023

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Most of the times when LGA/NYC go below 0 the setup is not one where LI will because often its a strong W-NW gradient and while those stations go -1 or -2 LI will be like 0-3

I've also wondered why JFK hasn't gone below zero since 1985....same reason as ISP?

 

[SACRUS]

Records 

Highs:

EWR:  69 (1991)
LGA: 68 (1991)
NYC: 68 (1991)


Lows:

EWR:  7 (1996) -  5 (2023)
NYC:  0 (1918)
LGA: 10 (1996) / 5 (2023)

 

Historical:

 

1961 - The third great snowstorm of the winter season struck the northeastern U.S. Cortland NY received 40 inches of snow. (David Ludlum)

1987 - Gales lashed the northern Pacific coast and the coast of northern New England. A storm in the central U.S. produced five inches of snow at Rapid City SD. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - A winter storm produced heavy snow from the Upper Ohio Valley to New England, with up to 12 inches reported in Vermont and New Hampshire. Strong northerly winds in the Upper Midwest produced wind chill readings as cold as 60 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Two dozen cities in the south central and northwestern U.S. reported new record low temperatures for the date. The low of 14 below zero at Boise ID was a February record. A winter storm continued in the southwestern U.S. Alta UT reported 49 inches of snow in four days, Wolf Creek CO reported 66 inches in six days, including 28 inches in 24 hours, and up to 84 inches buried the ski resorts of northern New Mexico in three days. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - A winter storm produced heavy snow in the northeastern U.S. Snowfall totals in Maine ranged up to 13 inches at Gorham, with 11 inches reported at Portland. Totals in New Hampshire ranged up to 14 inches at Franconia, with 13 inches reported at Portsmouth. A mixture of snow, sleet and freezing rain caused numerous traffic accidents in eastern New York State resulting in three deaths and fourteen injuries. Subzero cold also gripped parts of the northeastern U.S. Caribou ME and Houlton ME reported morning lows of 15 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2004 - 7.15 inches of rain deluges Pinson, AL, setting an all-time record rainfall over 24 hours for the town. The Weather Doctor

2007 - Kahului reports a minimum temperature of 54°F, a daily low temperature record for the date. The Weather Doctor

 

[SnowGoose69]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I've also wondered why JFK hasn't gone below zero since 1985....same reason as ISP?

 

They downslope pretty good on a WNW flow so they can be 2 degrees warmer than LGA even a strong CAA setup.  Even on 1/27/94 which was maybe about the best setup for JFK, snow pack and a 010-020 wind they only got to 2 

[EastonSN+]

Negative 3 here in Easton CT. Pretty cool.

[bluewave]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks Chris, are all of these oceanic low temps correct?

some of these coastal temps are jarring

-10 Boston

-1 Cape Cod

-6 Block Island

-3 Nantucket

-2 Montauk

-3 Bridgeport

It was the 2nd coldest at Block island on record. So the core of the cold went to our east. Probably would have made it close to -10 like Boston without water influence.

Time Series Summary for BLOCK ISLAND STATE AP, RI - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	1994	-7	74
2	2023	-6	0

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It was the 2nd coldest at Block island on record. So the core of the cold went to our east. Probably would have made it close to -10 like Boston without water influence.

Time Series Summary for BLOCK ISLAND STATE AP, RI - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	1994	-7	74
2	2023	-6	0

so -7 in 1994 is good context for what it would have been here had the cold air came right over us---- -2?

Did they not go below zero in Block Island on Jan 21, 1985?

 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Near record and record cold readings will give way to a less harsh, but still cold afternoon. High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 20s in most of the region.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 25°

Newark: 26°

Philadelphia: 30°

It will turn much milder tomorrow. 

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 40.3°; 15-Year: 40.5°

Newark: 30-Year: 40.9°; 15-Year: 41.1°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 42.1°; 15-Year: 42.1°

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

They downslope pretty good on a WNW flow so they can be 2 degrees warmer than LGA even a strong CAA setup.  Even on 1/27/94 which was maybe about the best setup for JFK, snow pack and a 010-020 wind they only got to 2 

That makes Jan 21, 1985 really special-- after all these years that's still the coldest day in my memory.

 

[CIK62]

All the Next 30 look similar.    IT'S OVER unless there is an accidental snowstorm---just like the accidental single digit bookend days to the warmest winter period ever.

[bluewave]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

so -7 in 1994 is good context for what it would have been here had the cold air came right over us---- -2?

Did they not go below zero in Block Island on Jan 21, 1985?

 

The core of the cold in 1994 missed to our west.

 

PA	READING 4 NNW	COOP	-20
PA	HAMBURG	COOP	-19
PA	SPRINGTOWN 1 NNE	COOP	-18
NJ	LONG VALLEY	COOP	-18
PA	GRATERFORD 1 E	COOP	-17
NJ	BELVIDERE BRIDGE	COOP	-17
PA	ALLENTOWN LEHIGH VALLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	-15
NJ	FLEMINGTON 5 NNW	COOP	-14
NJ	BOONTON 1 SE	COOP	-13
PA	HOPEWELL MORGANTOWN	COOP	-12
PA	COATESVILLE 2 W	COOP	-11
NJ	SOMERVILLE 4 NW	COOP	-11
NJ	SUSSEX 8 NNW	COOP	-11
NJ	LAMBERTVILLE	COOP	-10

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, CIK62 said:

All the Next 30 look similar.    IT'S OVER unless there is an accidental snowstorm---just like the accidental single digit bookend days to the warmest winter period ever.

 

If you want a chance for snow you'll take that anomaly map in February or March every time...December definitely not unless you're across the interior but that is once again nowhere near a shutout setup

[LibertyBell]

Just now, bluewave said:

The core of the cold in 1994 missed to our west.

 

PA	READING 4 NNW	COOP	-20
PA	HAMBURG	COOP	-19
PA	SPRINGTOWN 1 NNE	COOP	-18
NJ	LONG VALLEY	COOP	-18
PA	GRATERFORD 1 E	COOP	-17
NJ	BELVIDERE BRIDGE	COOP	-17
PA	ALLENTOWN LEHIGH VALLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	-15
NJ	FLEMINGTON 5 NNW	COOP	-14
NJ	BOONTON 1 SE	COOP	-13
PA	HOPEWELL MORGANTOWN	COOP	-12
PA	COATESVILLE 2 W	COOP	-11
NJ	SOMERVILLE 4 NW	COOP	-11
NJ	SUSSEX 8 NNW	COOP	-11
NJ	LAMBERTVILLE	COOP	-10

weird....so neither of these airmasses went "right down the Hudson"?

-2 is really cold for an airmass to miss to our west (but I guess that's why JFK only got to 0 and did not go below)?

That airmass must have been much colder and deeper than this one for Block Island to get down to -7!

Did the one in Jan 1985 hit us directly?

 

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

weird....so neither of these airmasses went "right down the Hudson"?

-2 is really cold for an airmass to miss to our west (but I guess that's why JFK only got to 0 and did not go below)?

That airmass must have been much colder and deeper than this one for Block Island to get down to -7!

Did the one in Jan 1985 hit us directly?

 

Not really, Jan 85 was similar to the Dec 80/83/94 as far as the air mass came down from the Lakes and we had massive CAA from the W-NW...but their air mass was just WAY colder.  I think 850s were -31C over NYC whereas 94 it was -28C I think

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

That makes Jan 21, 1985 really special-- after all these years that's still the coldest day in my memory.

 

January 1985 missed just to our west also. 

 

Data for January 1, 1985 through January 21, 1985
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Lowest Min Temperature
NJ	ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG	COOP	-14
NJ	CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR	COOP	-12
NJ	RINGWOOD	COOP	-12
NJ	CRANFORD	COOP	-10
NY	MIDDLETOWN 2 NW	COOP	-10
NY	PORT JERVIS	COOP	-9
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	-8
NJ	LITTLE FALLS	COOP	-8
NY	YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W	COOP	-8
NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	-7
NY	WEST POINT	COOP	-7
CT	DANBURY	COOP	-7
NJ	PLAINFIELD	COOP	-6
NJ	TETERBORO AIRPORT	WBAN	-6
NY	GARNERVILLE	COOP	-6
NY	WALDEN 1 ESE	COOP	-6
NY	NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS	COOP	-5
NY	DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY	COOP	-5
NY	SCARSDALE	COOP	-5
CT	NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT	COOP	-5
NY	NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN	COOP	-4
NY	WESTBURY	COOP	-4
CT	STAMFORD 5 N	COOP	-4
NY	WESTCHESTER CO AP	WBAN	-4
NY	LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	-3
NY	WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK	COOP	-3
CT	MOUNT CARMEL	COOP	-3
NY	PATCHOGUE 2 N	COOP	-3
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	-2
NY	JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	-2

[nycwinter]

1 hour ago, kat5hurricane said:

Why would I make that up? It was the warmest January on record. Maybe you wear heavy coats when it's in the 40s and 50s, I don't.

In any event, it's 6 here and feels every bit of it. Kind of amazing that this will be a 12 hour cold snap basically then back to March weather for the foreseeable future.

you said you did not wear a coat from late december which i do not believe plenty of mornings where temps were in the 30's and a few 20's are you telling me you never wore a coat from late december on that is why i do not believe you

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

weird....so neither of these airmasses went "right down the Hudson"?

-2 is really cold for an airmass to miss to our west (but I guess that's why JFK only got to 0 and did not go below)?

That airmass must have been much colder and deeper than this one for Block Island to get down to -7!

Did the one in Jan 1985 hit us directly?

 

The last -10 or colder airmass to go down the Hudson was February 1934.

 

Data for February 1, 1934 through February 28, 1934
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Lowest Min Temperature
NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	-26
NY	WALDEN 2 NE	COOP	-24
NY	CARMEL	COOP	-24
CT	COLCHESTER 2 W	COOP	-21
NJ	CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR	COOP	-21
CT	NORWALK	COOP	-20
CT	BRIDGEPORT	COOP	-20
NY	BEDFORD HILLS	COOP	-19
NY	PORT JERVIS	COOP	-19
NY	SCARSDALE	COOP	-18
NJ	LITTLE FALLS	COOP	-18
NY	WEST POINT	COOP	-17
CT	NEW LONDON	COOP	-17
NJ	PLAINFIELD	COOP	-17
NJ	RIDGEFIELD	COOP	-17
CT	WATERBURY ANACONDA	COOP	-16
CT	WATERBURY CITY HALL	COOP	-16
NJ	PATERSON	COOP	-16
NJ	ELIZABETH	COOP	-15
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	-15
NY	MOUNT VERNON	COOP	-14
NJ	JERSEY CITY	COOP	-14
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	-14
NY	WORLD TRADE CENTER	WBAN	-14
NY	FLUSHING	COOP	-14
NY	FARMINGDALE 2 NE	COOP	-12
NY	BRIDGEHAMPTON	COOP	-12
NY	SETAUKET STRONG	COOP	-11
NY	CUTCHOGUE	COOP	-10

[Volcanic Winter]

Only made it down to 8F here for a low. I hit 7F in the Christmas cold shot, down here (TR Manchester border) this one wasn’t too notable. Makes sense as the core of the cold pushed ENE of the Metro (interesting how the easternmost part of LI had colder temps). 

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

It’s probably the new calculation.

Was that with the temp at -2, Don?

Also would that still qualify for wind chill warnings with the new wind chill calculation-- I think -25 or below qualifies for that with the new numbers?

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Only made it down to 8F here for a low. I hit 7F in the Christmas cold shot, down here this one wasn’t too notable. Makes sense as the core of the cold pushed ENE of the Metro (interesting how the easternmost part of LI had colder temps). 

Philly only got down to 15 I think wow

 

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

January 1985 missed just to our west also. 

 

Data for January 1, 1985 through January 21, 1985
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Lowest Min Temperature
NJ	ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG	COOP	-14
NJ	CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR	COOP	-12
NJ	RINGWOOD	COOP	-12
NJ	CRANFORD	COOP	-10
NY	MIDDLETOWN 2 NW	COOP	-10
NY	PORT JERVIS	COOP	-9
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	-8
NJ	LITTLE FALLS	COOP	-8
NY	YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W	COOP	-8
NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	-7
NY	WEST POINT	COOP	-7
CT	DANBURY	COOP	-7
NJ	PLAINFIELD	COOP	-6
NJ	TETERBORO AIRPORT	WBAN	-6
NY	GARNERVILLE	COOP	-6
NY	WALDEN 1 ESE	COOP	-6
NY	NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS	COOP	-5
NY	DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY	COOP	-5
NY	SCARSDALE	COOP	-5
CT	NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT	COOP	-5
NY	NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN	COOP	-4
NY	WESTBURY	COOP	-4
CT	STAMFORD 5 N	COOP	-4
NY	WESTCHESTER CO AP	WBAN	-4
NY	LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	-3
NY	WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK	COOP	-3
CT	MOUNT CARMEL	COOP	-3
NY	PATCHOGUE 2 N	COOP	-3
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	-2
NY	JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	-2

Thanks, did Jan 1977 also miss just to our west?  I think that's the other one were NYC and JFK both got down to -2

 

[LibertyBell]

13 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Not really, Jan 85 was similar to the Dec 80/83/94 as far as the air mass came down from the Lakes and we had massive CAA from the W-NW...but their air mass was just WAY colder.  I think 850s were -31C over NYC whereas 94 it was -28C I think

I'm guessing Jan 1977 was the same way?  That might have been the coldest of them all (either that or Jan 1985)

 

[wdrag]

37 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

The next 8 days are averaging      41degs.(34/48) or +6.

Reached 35 here yesterday at 3am, in the teens daytime.

Today:    Rising T's from near 0 to 20 by sunset, 29 tomorrow AM, wind w.-breezy, p. sunny.

NOW HERE COMES THE 70's:

+5*(43%RH) here at 6am.       6* at 8am.

I'm focused on your op GFS guidance for the 11th-12th and 19th-20th... Hmmm...mighr be something going on, at least I84.  It's Feb .    If USA and Canadian guidance at 12 hours can be in error by 4F, who is to know for sure on what the next two weekends bring.  

[wdrag]

26 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

If you want a chance for snow you'll take that anomaly map in February or March every time...December definitely not unless you're across the interior but that is once again nowhere near a shutout setup

I am in agreement...that single member anomaly map includes the two 5 day very warm periods ending there 10th and 18th. 

I'm seeing anomalies cooling after the 19th...all ensembles.  That could just mean climo???? or it could mean the modeling hasn't decided whether the AK ridge returns per GEFS and shoots big time cold air into the northern USA (we need an AK ridge to have hope, especially if we don't have blocking near Greenland) or...  we continue the oft disgusted warm winter.   I don't know but I am looking for a pretty good event coming here around 11th. Whether its all rain or some sort of  mixed bag, I don't know, Canadian doesn't have anything like the GEFS 5H trough which continues to amplify in successive cycles ending 06z/4 .It's up to the GEFS two lose it, like it did for this coming Mondays (6th) 7day advance storm signal, or the Canadian to start seeing it.

Off line all day.

[bluewave]

16 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks, did Jan 1977 also miss just to our west?  I think that's the other one were NYC and JFK both got down to -2

 

Yeah, the core of the cold went to the Ohio Valley.

 

Time Series Summary for Cincinnati Area, OH (ThreadEx) - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	1977	-25	0
2	1994	-24	0
3	1985	-21	0
-	1984	-21	0
4	1989	-20	0
5	1982	-19	0
-	1963	-19	0

 

Time Series Summary for Cincinnati Area, OH (ThreadEx) - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	1977	12.0	0
2	1918	16.3	0
3	1978	18.3	0
4	1940	19.1	0
5	1893	21.1	0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	1918	21.7	0
2	1977	22.0	0
3	1888	23.2	0
4	1920	23.4	0
5	1875	23.6	1

[dmillz25]

Got down to 1 here impressive 

[donsutherland1]

30 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Was that with the temp at -2, Don?

Also would that still qualify for wind chill warnings with the new wind chill calculation-- I think -25 or below qualifies for that with the new numbers?

 

Yes. The full hourly data for the observed -28° wind chill:

January 21, 1985 9 am:

Temperature: -2°

Winds: 29 mph

Gusts: 37 mph

[snywx]

-4 for a low here

[gpsnavigator]

-3 low in Sparta.  Wind has died down nice, and I'm ready for a little warmup, although not to the extent of what's forecast.

I'm wondering what will become of the spring bloom, with things already popping through, and quite a ways to go yet until the official start of spring.

[ForestHillWx]

7 minutes ago, gpsnavigator said:

-3 low in Sparta.  Wind has died down nice, and I'm ready for a little warmup, although not to the extent of what's forecast.

I'm wondering what will become of the spring bloom, with things already popping through, and quite a ways to go yet until the official start of spring.

Too soon for any major effect on blooms/foliage.
 

If this happened at the end of February, early March I think we would have a more noticeable impact. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

Bottomed out at -8, now -2.