Allsnow Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Rgem went south for Wednesday. Under an inch for most Shocking. Models r only correct this winter when they show rain and warmth 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 13 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Shocking. Models r only correct this winter when they show rain and warmth Nam went the opposite way. I wouldn't discount some snow around that time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 10 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Nam went the opposite way. I wouldn't discount some snow around that time Yeah I think it's the best chance for our area to finally see a little accumulating snow this winter. RGEM didn't go too far south ... it has us on the edge of the accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 The 18z GFS was the first model run I've seen in a while to get a little piece of northern stream energy to a neutral position with respect to the "southern stream" wave. In general, if a wave closer to the equator is downstream (i.e., to the east in N. Hemisphere) of another wave closer to the pole, the longwave trof will amplify. Conversely, if the poleward wave is downstream of the other wave, it will dampen (i.e., suppression). So any shortwave, even a tiny packet of vorticity that gets to a neutral or ideally upstream position with respect to the southern wave will serve to amplify the waves and raise heights downstream. The GFS moved a little bit in this direction for the Thurs-Fri "event", which resulted in some precipitation into the mid-Atl. The 18z RGEM also looks to have moved slightly in this direction with a weak wave over Kansas at 84hr slightly more aligned with the southern stream wave near the TX panhandle. This is longshot territory, but still trackable IMO. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 Would be quite the feat if NYC records a below 0 reading yet has not had any measurable snow yet 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 15 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Would be quite the feat if NYC records a below 0 reading yet has not had any measurable snow yet Strong likelihood we see moderation. No snow cover and a glancing blow for us Slight northward adjustment of the vortex and we only see seasonably cold weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 39 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Would be quite the feat if NYC records a below 0 reading yet has not had any measurable snow yet Channel 7 is on board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 4 hours ago, EasternLI said: We 2001-2002... How are 1967, 1982 and 1994 on this list lol Granted 2002 is on this list twice so thats probably most likely 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 8 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: I feel like DC is in a terrible location for snow in general. Last 10 years it seems to always snow north, south east and west of them lol. DC Needs Miller A, those are my favorite too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 Point and click shows 0 for Friday night now 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 1 hour ago, qg_omega said: Channel 7 is on board Lol at a 29F-16F split being considered bitter. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 49 minutes ago, psv88 said: Point and click shows 0 for Friday night now -3 here Friday night with a high of 13 Saturday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Strong likelihood we see moderation. No snow cover and a glancing blow for us Slight northward adjustment of the vortex and we only see seasonably cold weather If we do get real cold from this, the way models are showing is the right way for it to happen. Little/any moderation from the due north cold advection, and snow cover isn't terribly far away. The Christmas cold snap got most of us down to the mid single digits and it came in literally the worst way cold air can come in for it to stay cold. But it's comical how the cold air lasts for literally one day because there's no blocking. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 For the stat gurus; in winters with strong December blocking that later returned, when did that typically occur? I'm assuming it varies? Also realize there are cases where it didn't return. Wondering if there's any chance we'll get a pity block in March. Regardless, it's very polite of the TPV to lift out of the NE in time for our next rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 0z GEFS and 18z EPS are essentially dry through next weekend. Hard to go against it. With tightly spaced Isohypses, fast flow, and an extremely unfavorable and suppressive orientation of the approaching PV, there doesn't seem to be much wiggle room to allow precipitation. I guess predawn Wed still offers some fleeting hope of a coating. But this marks yet another week of virtually nothing to track. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 9 minutes ago, eduggs said: 0z GEFS and 18z EPS are essentially dry through next weekend. Hard to go against it. With tightly spaced Isohypses, fast flow, and an extremely unfavorable and suppressive orientation of the approaching PV, there doesn't seem to be much wiggle room to allow precipitation. I guess predawn Wed still offers some fleeting hope of a coating. But this marks yet another week of virtually nothing to track. UKMET just came north with the wednesday morning light snow. Gives most of the area about an inch. So at least the RGEM isn't completely alone, and the fact that the RGEM has been the best model this winter gives us some hope. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 4 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: UKMET just came north with the wednesday morning light snow. Gives most of the area about an inch. So at least the RGEM isn't completely alone, and the fact that the RGEM has been the best model this winter gives us some hope. One inch of snow in a winter like this is like a blizzard in a good winter around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 Just now, Rtd208 said: One inch of snow in a winter like this is like a blizzard in a good winter around here. Yep. Sad that a 1 to 2 inch snow event would excite me, but it's the only possibilty we have right now in this joke of a winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 7 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: UKMET just came north with the wednesday morning light snow. Gives most of the area about an inch. So at least the RGEM isn't completely alone, and the fact that the RGEM has been the best model this winter gives us some hope. I really hope it happens as it would be nice to wake up to a little snow on the ground even though most of us will be sleeping during any falling flakes. Temps should be at or slightly below freezing during that period, which is a plus. On the negative side, models show only weak lift in the snow growth zone. The UK, ICON, and RGEM have a little snow, although the RGEM has been shifting southward for a few runs. The EC and GFS, as well as their ensembles, are suspiciously dry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 1 minute ago, eduggs said: I really hope it happens as it would be nice to wake up to a little snow on the ground even though most of us will be sleeping during any falling flakes. Temps should be at or slightly below freezing during that period, which is a plus. On the negative side, models show only weak lift in the snow growth zone. The UK, ICON, and RGEM have a little snow, although the RGEM has been shifting southward for a few runs. The EC and GFS, as well as their ensembles, are suspiciously dry. Yeah for all of the other events this month, NYC had no chance because it was too warm. At least it feels as if we have a chance with this one because it will be cold enough. It just a matter of getting a little precip in here. I haven't even seen a dusting of snow this winter, so seeing an inch or two on the ground would be a nice change. I'm rooting for it. Hopefully RGEM will score another victory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Yeah for all of the other events this month, NYC had no chance because it was too warm. At least it feels as if we have a chance with this one because it will be cold enough. It just a matter of getting a little precip in here. I haven't even seen a dusting of snow this winter, so seeing an inch or two on the ground would be a nice change. I'm rooting for it. Hopefully RGEM will score another victory. I am going to laugh if March winds up being epic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 06Z/30 GFS for the first time offer exceedingly minor measurable snowfall for NYC/PHL areas early Wed. EC shutout all this week. UK/Canadian, especially RGEM-RDPS while sagging a little south from previous days (I84) have been constantly advertising a period of snow for PA/NJ/LI Tue night, as has the ICON(not my favorite model). Don't know what to say except for my friends, I'm continuing the 'possibility' of a dusting. Also of note and probably already discussed: I want to think the EC has gone off the deep end at 132 hours or thereabouts, but offers all of our area the coldest temps of the winter, including brutally cold wind chills that if verified would be near WARNING for most of our subforum. Even without snow cover, the low temp in NYC could be the coldest since Jan 2019? I don't want to believe the subzero on the EC and will accept that it's too extreme which makes the wind chill too extreme. Does look like a serious 1-2 day cold shot. 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 I thought an Aleutian low helps to pump the pna? Why not this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 The consistency of the RGEM holding the weak wave is interesting. It did subtly shift the best snow to far south Jersey, but at least it’s still showing something area wide. It’s really not comforting how little the other models want to do with this (CMC went south), I would have to imagine something would begin to cave by tonight? Either the RGEM just sniffed this one out or it’ll dissipate into the ether. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: I thought an Aleutian low helps to pump the pna? Why not this time It floods the continent with PAC air. Also, like the NAO, the actual position and strength are important as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 17 hours ago, EasternLI said: We 2001-2002... Was thinking about this. So far we've had three looks. The Neg NAO period, the PAC flood period and now we are heading into the look above. Kind of amazing CPK is at 0 with three different setups. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 1 hour ago, Volcanic Winter said: The consistency of the RGEM holding the weak wave is interesting. It did subtly shift the best snow to far south Jersey, but at least it’s still showing something area wide. It’s really not comforting how little the other models want to do with this (CMC went south), I would have to imagine something would begin to cave by tonight? Either the RGEM just sniffed this one out or it’ll dissipate into the ether. The 12Z HRRR now looks like the RGEM at 48...not anywhere near as north but basically worlds different than the NAM which at 12Z through 30 appears it won't bit yet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 Can’t wait to be outside taking pictures of 0.4 inches (sorry, eternal optimist) of snow like a complete degenerate. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 this is the fastest arctic shot i've seen 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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