LibertyBell Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: No it's possible it's just that it'll be a drop in the bucket compared to the record warm weather. If the orientation was different than subzero temps would've came further south. My location officially (using JFK for numbers) has not gotten below zero since January 1985 (Reagan's second inauguration)...unofficially, I was measuring temps and snowfall in 1993-94 and I'm pretty sure we went below zero here on the south shore in January 1994. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 I was definitely down to something like 3-4F at my home location during one of those stronger cold shots in the mid 2010’s. Back then I had an Accurite, but now I have a Tempest set up. Hit 7F in the Dec cold shot. Curious what I’ll see tonight but I’m not sure I’ll beat my Dec reading as the north to south gradient of the cold is very tight and falls off quick. Probably won’t radiate much tonight with the winds? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Yes it was -3 in NYC and -5 on Long Island. I saved that map lol I always warn people and see people doing it on twitter posting the Euro/GFS SFC temp maps at like Day 4...in outbreaks like this I always use the 850s and go from there...my guess was 2 for NYC for a few days ago, despite the -27 or -28C 850 I felt the lack of snow cover might result in it being 2-3 degrees warmer than normal with those 850s..also I did not like the idea of a 310-320 win at 10kts late at night. That means you're probably already into neutral or warm advection and your best 850s have moved east. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 3 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said: I was definitely down to something like 3-4F at my home location during one of those stronger cold shots in the mid 2010’s. Back then I had an Accurite, but now I have a Tempest set up. Hit 7F in the Dec cold shot. Curious what I’ll see tonight but I’m not sure I’ll beat my Dec reading as the north to south gradient of the cold is very tight and falls off quick. Probably won’t radiate much tonight with the winds? what was your low in December? we might tie it-- it was 6 then and might get to 6 now. I'm interested in seeing the number of single digit arctic outbreak shots per season and then the average per decade. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 Just now, LibertyBell said: what was your low in December? we might tie it-- it was 6 then and might get to 6 now. I'm interested in seeing the number of single digit arctic outbreak shots per season and then the average per decade. This Dec I hit 7F. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I always warn people and see people doing it on twitter posting the Euro/GFS SFC temp maps at like Day 4...in outbreaks like this I always use the 850s and go from there...my guess was 2 for NYC for a few days ago, despite the -27 or -28C 850 I felt the lack of snow cover might result in it being 2-3 degrees warmer than normal with those 850s..also I did not like the idea of a 310-320 win at 10kts late at night. That means you're probably already into neutral or warm advection and your best 850s have moved east. Isn't this also what happened in January 2004? What were NYC and BOS lowest lows then? Below zero was predicted but I think we got down to 1 two nights in a row. at JFK too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 Just now, LibertyBell said: Isn't this also what happened in January 2004? What were NYC and BOS max lows then? Below zero was predicted but I think we got down to 1 two nights in a row. at JFK too Yeah the core of the air mass went way too far NE but we also got hurt clearing out that day following the snow, we ended up getting to 17 in NYC I think and most guidance showed 12-15...had we only reached that we'd probably have done it...the 850s were only like -23C I think but with major snow cover across all of NY and areas to our N-NW we undercut what we probably normally would in that setup 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: Yeah the core of the air mass went way too far NE but we also got hurt clearing out that day following the snow, we ended up getting to 17 in NYC I think and most guidance showed 12-15...had we only reached that we'd probably have done it...the 850s were only like -23C I think but with major snow cover across all of NY and areas to our N-NW we undercut what we probably normally would in that setup Did that cold also last longer because I remember a two night peak? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Did that cold also last longer because I remember a two night peak? We got all the way down to 2 the night before as it was snowing the entire night. I think it was like a 30:1 ratio snow event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 34 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said: For sure NE would always be deeper into the lower heights Not always. Check out January 1985, among others. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 31 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: How much of a difference is there between this arctic shot and the one on VD 2016? Both occured during mild winters. I guess the one similarity is getting a more Nino-like coldest winter temperature in February. We also got our biggest snow of the season this month. So more of a backloaded winter than we normally see during a La Niña. El Niño years with coldest winter readings in February. Monthly Lowest Min Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Dec Jan Feb Season 2022-2023 7 28 26 7 2015-2016 34 11 -1 -1 2014-2015 24 8 2 2 2006-2007 18 9 8 8 1994-1995 19 15 6 6 1986-1987 19 8 4 4 1977-1978 13 12 10 10 1972-1973 19 10 7 7 1957-1958 18 12 3 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 Just now, NorthShoreWx said: Not always. Check out January 1985, among others. Yeah January 82 also...core of air mass went down almost into the Gulf so places like Birmingham and Atlanta went below 0, same as 85...we've seen less of that the last 25 years for sure 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 Surface temperature gradient is modeled pretty tight just to our north. A little nudge in either direction and most of LI could go below zero ... or struggle to get below +10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 26 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said: I know the time to surface expression of a SSW varies, but assuming it happens as some models depict, when is its impact likely to be felt? Would really be a shame to have it for mid March and beyond, but of course that keeps the trend of luck falling the wrong way this year. And yes, no guarantee it even happens just like the previous failed attempt. It's still something that's really being figured out in the research sector. General idea currently is that the stronger it is the faster it would happen. But it's variable and sometimes there are no surface effects at all. Other times, it happens very quickly. This a topic that is still being studied. Only recently has a slightly better understanding of this begun to take shape. As far as I'm aware. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 13 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: Not always. Check out January 1985, among others. Thanks, yeah I was thinking more with a direct shot over the northeast but I sort of contradicted myself anyway as it does depend on orientation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 Pretty impressive wind gusts. My station just registered a gust to 42.3. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt8204 Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 55 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: My location officially (using JFK for numbers) has not gotten below zero since January 1985 (Reagan's second inauguration)...unofficially, I was measuring temps and snowfall in 1993-94 and I'm pretty sure we went below zero here on the south shore in January 1994. Same day of the 49ers/Dolphins Super Bowl (Marino's only appearance in the big game). Wonder how many people decided not to venture out to parties and elected to hunker down and watch the game at home because of the cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 8 minutes ago, FPizz said: Pretty impressive wind gusts. My station just registered a gust to 42.3. Yeah it’s breezy and pretty chilly here in Hillside right now. No gusts that strong yet though. Impressive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 Gfs looks good next weekend but it's a week away =( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 If the warmer guidance showing little or no snowfall through mid-February verifies, that would put Winter 2022-2023 on a trajectory that has led to much below normal seasonal snowfall (less than 50% of the current seasonal normal figure) for New York City in the 8 prior cases that reached February 14th with less than 4" of snowfall. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
guinness77 Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 LOL at no wind advisory. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 12 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs looks good next weekend but it's a week away =( More BS from the GFS We spring starting Sunday. If there's any more snow it'll happen in the Feb 25-March 15 period. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 3, 2023 Author Share Posted February 3, 2023 7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: More BS from the GFS We spring starting Sunday. If there's any more snow it'll happen in the Feb 25-March 15 period. Next weekend is cold on all the models 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 Winds are absolutely ripping right now on the uws right next to the Hudson. I’m sitting in my suv for alternate side parking and I’m rocking back and forth. Street signs are banging too. Must be a local situation with the hudson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 12 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: More BS from the GFS We spring starting Sunday. If there's any more snow it'll happen in the Feb 25-March 15 period. What spring ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 26 minutes ago, guinness77 said: LOL at no wind advisory. why is it we no longer get wind advisories or high wind warnings or wind chill advisories or wind chill warnings like we used to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 10 minutes ago, MJO812 said: What spring ? widespread 50s and a chance at 60 lows in the 40s I'd call that early spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 15 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Next weekend is cold on all the models all the cold is going into the west though and none of the long range forecasts I've seen has any cold coming here for awhile. Highs in the 40s (if that's what it is) isn't really cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 1 hour ago, NorthShoreWx said: Surface temperature gradient is modeled pretty tight just to our north. A little nudge in either direction and most of LI could go below zero ... or struggle to get below +10. why is it so tight? are warmer ocean waters responsible for this (and maybe this is why these airmasses don't make it as far south as they once did?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said: Yeah January 82 also...core of air mass went down almost into the Gulf so places like Birmingham and Atlanta went below 0, same as 85...we've seen less of that the last 25 years for sure Yeah I'm wondering if warming waters have made this much less likely on the coastal plain now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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