February 2023

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Thank you Don. One thing I am noticing in Feb...  despite above normal, it doesn't look as warm as it did in January. Certainly GEFS ensembles are muted on warmth...while the CMCE is much more aggressive on warmth.  

All ensembles imply an event of some sort (ice or snow) I80 corridor northward to Canada 2/10-12.  Canadian op needs to get on board.  At least EC op has a chance and the GFS--- might be a little overboard in what has been a severe dud of a winter I84 corridor southward. 

 

I agree with you. February should be cooler than January, perhaps by several degrees. There does seem to be some window of opportunity on the ensembles. Let’s hope it is realized.

[the_other_guy]

10 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I agree with you. February should be cooler than January, perhaps by several degrees. There does seem to be some window of opportunity on the ensembles. Let’s hope it is realized.

Just based on law of averages, it would be hard to match or top a record month.

But Don, what exactly is going on here?

We arent in an El Nino. There is a lot of comparison to a warmer 97/98; but there isnt a direct correlation. What exactly went wrong here?

[Cfa]

Snowing at ISP right now.

[forkyfork]

2 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Just based on law of averages, it would be hard to match or top a record month.

But Don, what exactly is going on here?

We arent in an El Nino. There is a lot of comparison to a warmer 97/98; but there isnt a direct correlation. What exactly went wrong here?

carbon dioxide 

[SnoSki14]

16 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I agree with you. February should be cooler than January, perhaps by several degrees. There does seem to be some window of opportunity on the ensembles. Let’s hope it is realized.

Idk the EPS is looking extremely mild. I would still go +7 

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Idk the EPS is looking extremely mild. I would still go +7 

That's way too warm . Nothing shows that extreme warmth except the eps which has been erractic.

[bluewave]

The latest Euro gets the 0° line down to near White Plains tomorrow morning. It would be a top 10 coldest reading for February. Also has NYC dipping below 5°. 

 

 

 

Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	1979	-10	0
2	1961	-7	1
3	1967	-6	1
4	2015	-5	0
5	1963	-4	0
6	2016	-3	0
-	1955	-3	1
7	1962	-2	1
8	1958	-1	0
9	1996	0	9
-	1993	0	0
-	1987	0	2

[SACRUS]

 

[the_other_guy]

14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The latest Euro gets the 0° line down to near White Plains tomorrow morning. It would be a top 10 coldest reading for February. Also has NYC dipping below 5°. 

 

 

 

Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	1979	-10	0
2	1961	-7	1
3	1967	-6	1
4	2015	-5	0
5	1963	-4	0
6	2016	-3	0
-	1955	-3	1
7	1962	-2	1
8	1958	-1	0
9	1996	0	9
-	1993	0	0
-	1987	0	2

this will be highlight of winter… everyone on this forum should really enjoy the next 24 hours

[Cfa]

Grateful we aren’t in Boston’s shoes. Single digit negatives are insane enough, but double digit negatives take the cake. New England is a different world compared to here.

[donsutherland1]

54 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Just based on law of averages, it would be hard to match or top a record month.

But Don, what exactly is going on here?

We arent in an El Nino. There is a lot of comparison to a warmer 97/98; but there isnt a direct correlation. What exactly went wrong here?

I don't think there's a simple explanation. I suspect a combination of factors have contributed. Ongoing marine heatwaves distorted the pattern leading to, among other things, California's excessive precipitation during a La Niña, almost unrelenting push of Pacific air into North America, and tendency for expansive ridging in the western Atlantic to which the earlier blocking linked up. Long-term changes taking place in the Arctic have also led to an increased tendency for "stuck patterns."  Stochastic factors at the synoptic level also contributed.

[JustinRP37]

I am so excited to be in Putnam County. Thunder Ridge has been blasting snow. Should be able to get to 100% open this weekend. But alas, all good things come to a quick end. Now the story will switch to how long will the pack last. I do hope we at least get some more cold nights by the end of the month. 

[wdrag]

23 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The latest Euro gets the 0° line down to near White Plains tomorrow morning. It would be a top 10 coldest reading for February. Also has NYC dipping below 5°. 

 

 

 

Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	1979	-10	0
2	1961	-7	1
3	1967	-6	1
4	2015	-5	0
5	1963	-4	0
6	2016	-3	0
-	1955	-3	1
7	1962	-2	1
8	1958	-1	0
9	1996	0	9
-	1993	0	0
-	1987	0	2

Good check... it has been holding pretty close to within 2F of 3 above the past 10+ cycles (EC OP cycles every 6 hours). I am going to go for a low in CP within 2F of the BGM 2PM temp (barring it's snowing heavily at 2P there). That as I recall (please correct me old timers) was a good rule of thumb.  My guess is close to 5F.   EPS from 00z/3 seems to have 4F at 12z/4. EPS about 4-6F colder than the CMCE,GEFS, SREF. Let's see what happens. If it does get down to 5F without snow cover in the lower Hud Valley,  quite a feat. 

[jm1220]

20 minutes ago, Cfa said:

Grateful we aren’t in Boston’s shoes. Single digit negatives are insane enough, but double digit negatives take the cake. New England is a different world compared to here.

It’s about -10 or so where it hurts to even breathe outside. I’ve been in that a few times and it’s not fun. With -30 wind chill it’s unbearable. Thankfully it’s just for one day. 

[bluewave]

14 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

this will be highlight of winter… everyone on this forum should really enjoy the next 24 hours

These brief Arctic shots in a sea of warm have become the norm. This should be the coldest February reading after such a warm January. Then we get a quick rebound back to we’ll above average.
 

 

Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	February Min Temp
1	2023	40.0	?
2	1990	36.9	4
3	2006	36.5	13
4	2017	35.6	15
-	2002	35.6	15
5	1998	35.4	12

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

I agree with you. February should be cooler than January, perhaps by several degrees. There does seem to be some window of opportunity on the ensembles. Let’s hope it is realized.

aren't we supposed to bake in the middle of the month?

also the GFS hasn't been anywhere near as good as the Canadian

[LibertyBell]

16 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I don't think there's a simple explanation. I suspect a combination of factors have contributed. Ongoing marine heatwaves distorted the pattern leading to, among other things, California's excessive precipitation during a La Niña, almost unrelenting push of Pacific air into North America, and tendency for expansive ridging in the western Atlantic to which the earlier blocking linked up. Long-term changes taking place in the Arctic have also led to an increased tendency for "stuck patterns."  Stochastic factors at the synoptic level also contributed.

This is the rainiest California winter since 82-83 and may even exceed that year.

Despite what has been going on here this season, this winter has been good news on multiple fronts (warmer so much less heating costs, and lots of rain and snow in California who need it much more than we do.)

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

carbon dioxide 

and methane

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

30 minutes ago, Cfa said:

Grateful we aren’t in Boston’s shoes. Single digit negatives are insane enough, but double digit negatives take the cake. New England is a different world compared to here.

It will not be -13 in Boston, there's forecasts and then there's reality. The average tempertaures in Boston during winter are higher than most of the HV 40 miles north and northwest of NYC.

If you're comparing Central New England to NYC then yes there's no comparison, a different world as you say.

[LibertyBell]

50 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The latest Euro gets the 0° line down to near White Plains tomorrow morning. It would be a top 10 coldest reading for February. Also has NYC dipping below 5°. 

 

 

 

Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	1979	-10	0
2	1961	-7	1
3	1967	-6	1
4	2015	-5	0
5	1963	-4	0
6	2016	-3	0
-	1955	-3	1
7	1962	-2	1
8	1958	-1	0
9	1996	0	9
-	1993	0	0
-	1987	0	2

How much of a difference is there between this arctic shot and the one on VD 2016?  Both occured during mild winters.

 

[bluewave]

17 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Good check... it has been holding pretty close to within 2F of 3 above the past 10+ cycles (EC OP cycles every 6 hours). I am going to go for a low in CP within 2F of the BGM 2PM temp (barring it's snowing heavily at 2P there). That as I recall (please correct me old timers) was a good rule of thumb.  My guess is close to 5F.   EPS from 00z/3 seems to have 4F at 12z/4. EPS about 4-6F colder than the CMCE,GEFS, SREF. Let's see what happens. If it does get down to 5F without snow cover in the lower Hud Valley,  quite a feat. 

Looks like some of the coldest 850 mb temperatures for this time of year in New England since 1979.

 

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

It will not be -13 in Boston, there's forecasts and then there's reality. The average tempertaures in Boston during winter are higher than most of the HV 40 miles north and northwest of NYC.

If you're comparing Central New England to NYC then yes there's no comparison, a different world as you say.

Boston may be like -6

I don't believe even that is possible anymore down where I live (or in NYC for that matter)

[Volcanic Winter]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Boston may be like -6

I don't believe even that is possible anymore down where I live (or in NYC for that matter)

Didn’t the Euro originally have the lobe extend further south and get the immediate metro just negative? 

For sure NE would always be deeper into the lower heights, but I think we would’ve been colder had it been oriented a bit differently. You can see the lower heights directly to our east, move that west and NYC is colder. 

[donsutherland1]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

aren't we supposed to bake in the middle of the month?

also the GFS hasn't been anywhere near as good as the Canadian

We will go through a very warm period. Right now, it appears that the closing week to 10 days of the month could see a cooling trend. That's very far out in the future, so that outcome is far from assured. The current short but severe cold shot coupled with late month uncertainty suggests that a similar or even warmer outcome is far from assured. What could be reachable, but still not assured at this point in the month, is only the second January-February combination where both months had mean temperatures of 40° or above in NYC. 1998 is the only year when that happened. 1990 (39.7° in February), 2002 (39.9° in January), and 2020 (39.1° in January) came close.

[TWCCraig]

Euro is still way too cold. Pretty amazing that 24 hours out it'll have a forecast for -17 in Provincetown, on Cape Cod, surrounded by water. In fact, the Euro has the entire Gulf of Maine below 0 all the way to the 40/70. It's not going to get that cold over 40+ degree ocean.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Didn’t the Euro originally have the lobe extend further south and get the immediate metro just negative? 

For sure NE would always be deeper into the lower heights, but I think we would’ve been colder had it been oriented a bit differently. You can see the lower heights directly to our east, move that west and NYC is colder. 

Yes it was -3 in NYC and -5 on Long Island.  I saved that map lol

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, TWCCraig said:

Euro is still way too cold. Pretty amazing that 24 hours out it'll have a forecast for -17 in Provincetown, on Cape Cod, surrounded by water. In fact, the Euro has the entire Gulf of Maine below 0 all the way to the 40/70. It's not going to get that cold over 40+ degree ocean.

ocean effect snow storm?

 

[SnoSki14]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Boston may be like -6

I don't believe even that is possible anymore down where I live (or in NYC for that matter)

No it's possible it's just that it'll be a drop in the bucket compared to the record warm weather. 

If the orientation was different than subzero temps would've came further south. 

[Volcanic Winter]

I know the time to surface expression of a SSW varies, but assuming it happens as some models depict, when is its impact likely to be felt?

Would really be a shame to have it for mid March and beyond, but of course that keeps the trend of luck falling the wrong way this year. 

And yes, no guarantee it even happens just like the previous failed attempt. 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Didn’t the Euro originally have the lobe extend further south and get the immediate metro just negative? 

For sure NE would always be deeper into the lower heights, but I think we would’ve been colder had it been oriented a bit differently. You can see the lower heights directly to our east, move that west and NYC is colder. 

I guess we got caught between two cold shots, the one that went straight down to Texas (more common pathway) and this one which will go just to our east.