February 2023

[EastonSN+]

45 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

March will be warm This year as well. Mjo stuck in warm phases 

What? It's in a cold phase now. May be 8 by late February.

[Allsnow]

11 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Where do you see this? Smarter and safer to expect a warm March, yes. But I just checked out the MJO on a page that lists all the model forecasts for it and it generally looked like it’s moving pretty quickly. I’m not good with MJO prognostication though by any means. 

 

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

2018 again. We DID get a moderate snow event during that epic torch so although it looks warm we cannot assume no snow.

All the warm water is stacked up in the warm phases. Mjo is thunderstorm convection training over the same warm water. 

[EastonSN+]

Just now, Allsnow said:

 

All the warm water is stacked up in the warm phases. Mjo is thunderstorm convection training over the same warm water. 

I personally do not believe in the warm water in certain areas will never change theory AS OF YET. I mean we JUST had an above average snowfall winter 2 years ago and an almost epic winter 17/18. Like I said before I will start believing if we outdue the disaster that was the 90s (2 above average snowfall winters and endless warmth).

[weatherpruf]

28 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Hurricane this year?

Let's hope not. There is nothing redeeming about hurricanes. They equal death and destruction. Full stop.

[psv88]

19 this morning. Still snow in the backyard. 

Deep winter.

[brooklynwx99]

the reason why Ninas usually suck here is because there is constructive interference with the MJO in phases 4, 5, and 6, which is why it always ends up getting warm in those phases. there is destructive interference in the "good phases" of Zones 7, 8, and 1, which is why the waves almost always collapse before they make it there, and they usually don't do much if they do

we just can't expect much from Ninas here. they almost always lead to ridging, and it takes anomalous -NAO blocking to beat it down, as seen in 2010-11 and this December... unfortunately, we couldn't cash in this year

Ninos are great because there is actually constructive interference in those "good phases" due to tropical forcing that's farther east... this ties into the Aleutian Low that's normally featured in Nino winters. this leads to cold usually getting dumped into the Plains and E US instead of the Rockies

we should see a change once we get a solid Nino, which has a good shot of happening next year, definitely the one after

[MJO812]

36 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

What? It's in a cold phase now. May be 8 by late February.

Yep

[SACRUS]

Records:

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 62 (1973)
LGA: 59 (1988)
NYC: 59 (1988)
 

Lows:

LGA; -1 (1961)
EWR:  -2 (1961)
NYC: -3 (1881)

 

Historical:

1988 - A dying low pressure system over southern California deluged the San Diego coastal mountains with more than four inches of rain causing half a million dollars damage. Arctic air invading the north central U.S. sent the mercury plunging to 38 degrees below zero at Park Rapids MN.  Raleigh NC reported a record high of 75 degrees along with other east cost cities. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

[Gravity Wave]

Would be great if the Nino could break some of the stuck patterns of the last 6-7 years (endless SE ridge, NW Atlantic warm pool, eastern Pacific cold pool).

[EasternLI]

8 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the reason why Ninas usually suck here is because there is constructive interference with the MJO in phases 4, 5, and 6, which is why it always ends up getting warm in those phases. there is destructive interference in the "good phases" of Zones 7, 8, and 1, which is why the waves almost always collapse before they make it there, and they usually don't do much if they do

we just can't expect much from Ninas here. they almost always lead to ridging, and it takes anomalous -NAO blocking to beat it down, as seen in 2010-11 and this December... unfortunately, we couldn't cash in this year

Ninos are great because there is actually constructive interference in those "good phases" due to tropical forcing that's farther east... this ties into the Aleutian Low that's normally featured in Nino winters. this leads to cold usually getting dumped into the Plains and E US instead of the Rockies

we should see a change once we get a solid Nino, which has a good shot of happening next year, definitely the one after

Pretty much, yeah. That's a good way to explain it. I'd just add, the reason why la nina is often better in early winter. Is because la nina phases can be ok in early winter. Because wavelengths are different. But later winter, forget about it. I'm interested about next year. QBOE is on deck also. 

[bluewave]

Another one of these brief but impressive Arctic shots in a sea of warm like around Christmas with single digit lows.

 

 

[EastonSN+]

50 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Another one of these brief but impressive Arctic shots in a sea of warm like around Christmas with single digit lows.

 

 

Wow surprised to see that many top 50 and 25 coolest out west. They were due!

[HeadInTheClouds]

Short lived but pretty damn cold. 

 

[lee59]

For those who want real winter, start driving to Caribou Maine.

 

Scattered snow showers, mainly after 8pm. Widespread blowing snow after 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around -8. Breezy, with a south wind 13 to 20 mph becoming west after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Friday

Isolated snow showers before 8am. Widespread blowing snow. Mostly sunny and cold, with a temperature falling to around -16 by 5pm. Wind chill values as low as -44. Breezy, with a west wind 18 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Friday Night

Widespread blowing snow. Partly cloudy, with a low around -24. Wind chill values as low as -56. Windy, with a west wind 22 to 26 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph.

[MANDA]

Once this fleeting cold shot is done and out of here by Sunday morning the weather the next week or so will be about as interesting as watching oil based paint dry.  What a S**T show.  Cold then moderating to very mild and pretty much dry for the next 7 days or so.  Those cutters and coastal huggers at least gave us some variety.  This is just a wretched pattern coming up.

[Volcanic Winter]

1 hour ago, lee59 said:

For those who want real winter, start driving to Caribou Maine.

 

Scattered snow showers, mainly after 8pm. Widespread blowing snow after 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around -8. Breezy, with a south wind 13 to 20 mph becoming west after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Friday

Isolated snow showers before 8am. Widespread blowing snow. Mostly sunny and cold, with a temperature falling to around -16 by 5pm. Wind chill values as low as -44. Breezy, with a west wind 18 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Friday Night

Widespread blowing snow. Partly cloudy, with a low around -24. Wind chill values as low as -56. Windy, with a west wind 22 to 26 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph.

Yeah. We actually have family on my wife’s side in Rochester, also near Nashua NH. I have family in Mass. If my wife were comfortable moving that far I’d be out of here. For several reasons we’re looking at an area from N NJ through the lower HV through the SW CT area. Been in roughly the same part of Nj all my life and ready to shake things up. 

My wife is also part French Canadian and I always joke with her mom to hook us up with some citizenship, her mom lived in Canada through college.   

[winterwx21]

30 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Once this fleeting cold shot is done and out of here by Sunday morning the weather the next week or so will be about as interesting as watching oil based paint dry.  What a S**T show.  Cold then moderating to very mild and pretty much dry for the next 7 days or so.  Those cutters and coastal huggers at least gave us some variety.  This is just a wretched pattern coming up.

Very sad that on February 2nd we have absolutely nothing to track, even in the long range. Worst winter ever. 

Well all we can do is make the best of it. I will take advantage of the warm weather next week with some outdoor activities. It'll be good hiking weather. 

[matt8204]

43 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Once this fleeting cold shot is done and out of here by Sunday morning the weather the next week or so will be about as interesting as watching oil based paint dry.  What a S**T show.  Cold then moderating to very mild and pretty much dry for the next 7 days or so.  Those cutters and coastal huggers at least gave us some variety.  This is just a wretched pattern coming up.

Which basically takes us into mid-February.  Time is ticking fast.  

[Stormlover74]

On 2/1/2023 at 12:57 PM, JustinRP37 said:

Our local network Mets have become so over the top. “February feel” for today, well it is February. And “bitter blast” umm no how about routine winter weather. Followed by “rapid recovery” umm no that is not a recovery that is above normal temperatures. I do think the media does a big part of vilifying winter weather across the nation. How about we look at the loss of jobs that also come with years like this? Or how about minimal work for the landscapers who also plow? Or plow truck drivers not getting any overtime to help with the energy bill? Or small ski areas struggling to survive? The media always uses terms to scare people from winter. It’s why I honestly don’t even watch local weather anymore. It is just hype hype hype for the ads machine. 

MANHATTAN

New York City bracing for ‘brutal’ Arctic wind chill: ‘It means business’

By Peter Sblendorio

New York Daily News

Feb 02, 2023 at 11:22 am

[vegan_edible]

im holding out hope after this week things MAYBE take a turn in our favor. The odds are certainly stacked up against us, but late february can be a wildcard, not only that but the model guidance keeps hinting at some cooler temperatures late next weekend. we will see some type of event late feb? who knows

[wishcast_hater]

I have been keeping a written record of tomorrows and Saturdays arctic cold since last Wednesday. Just amazing how forecast temps change day to day. At one point my forecast low for Friday night was -12 with a high of only 6 and that was like 2 days ago. Now I’m forecasted a low of -7 with a high temp of 19. I really was rooting for 6 degrees as a high. Can’t win this winter.


.

[CIK62]

Hey!   What are you waving at?     The bus doesn't stop here anymore!

In a real sense the bus may not stop here anymore.     The MTA  is getting rid of 1000's of Bus Stops City Wide.       To speed up your ride while you walk 3 or 4 extra blocks to your new stop---missing the bus in the process.

[Intensewind002]

1 hour ago, MANDA said:

Once this fleeting cold shot is done and out of here by Sunday morning the weather the next week or so will be about as interesting as watching oil based paint dry.  What a S**T show.  Cold then moderating to very mild and pretty much dry for the next 7 days or so.  Those cutters and coastal huggers at least gave us some variety.  This is just a wretched pattern coming up.

We really haven’t had an interesting event since the Christmas arctic front that moved through, so it’s kind of par for the course at this point…

 

[NorthShoreWx]

5 hours ago, psv88 said:

19 this morning. Still snow in the backyard. 

Deep winter.

It's like the day after tomorrow.  Run before it's too late.   

 

[tdp146]

25 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said:

We really haven’t had an interesting event since the Christmas arctic front that moved through, so it’s kind of par for the course at this point…

 

Yikes. That puts it into perspective. The most exciting event all winter was a GLC and a trailing front. 
 

What ever happened to a good old fashioned Miller A. I’d take even a rainy one. At least it would be a real storm. 

[dWave]

20 hours ago, Dark Star said:

Idiots salted, even main roads were okay.  Now we have salt on the roads that can be plowed.  I mean, 0.3"?  I get it, the children going to school? Afraid of lawsuits from idiotic drivers?  Somebody has to step up and make adult decisions...

This over salting has really become a trend over the last several years. I think it really took off after that early Nov snowstorm that dropped around 6" and lead to disastrous paralyzing gridlock with people stranded overnight and even longer.  After the heat some govts received its just self preservation to err on the side of caution even if it's extreme. 

[JustinRP37]

2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

MANHATTAN

New York City bracing for ‘brutal’ Arctic wind chill: ‘It means business’

By Peter Sblendorio

New York Daily News

Feb 02, 2023 at 11:22 am

All day the main news stories have bee “historic paralyzing cold” or my favorite from CNN “Once in a lifetime cold coming”. And yet people actually tune in daily to the “media” 

[rclab]

3 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

All day the main news stories have bee “historic paralyzing cold” or my favorite from CNN “Once in a lifetime cold coming”. And yet people actually tune in daily to the “media” 

Good evening JRP37. Drudge listed the CNN report under the title,” Northeast braces for ‘generational Arctic outbreak’ ….. I wonder which generation was being cited so melodramatically. Stay well and warm, as always …..

4 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

All day the main news stories have bee “historic paralyzing cold” or my favorite from CNN “Once in a lifetime cold coming”. And yet people actually tune in daily to the “media” 

[jm1220]

21 minutes ago, rclab said:

Good evening JRP37. Drudge listed the CNN report under the title,” Northeast braces for ‘generational Arctic outbreak’ ….. I wonder which generation was being cited so melodramatically. Stay well and warm, as always …..

It's fairly typical to get a cold snap like this here once or twice a winter at least, and actually have it last longer than one day. 12z GFS has it down to around 10 for NYC and LI on Sat AM, 0 would be the I-84 corridor. Any negative anomalies this cold brings will be gone and then some in a week. 

[lee59]

Unfortunately the news seems to be more about hype than honesty, at times.