Volcanic Winter Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 Yeah, of course this is the winter we could’ve really used the shakeup of a SSW, which looked plausible until it didn’t. Would be all too fitting for us to get one in time for spring. If it’s going to happen, let it happen already and let’s at least try to get something out of it in March… 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: Thanks-- everyone is so kind with all the condolences, if I was going to thank everyone individually it would be like a dozen posts in a row and you know I could NEVER do that ;-) I hope you got to experience and remember 2002-03 (that Christmas snowstorm was amazing!) in Albany because that was one amazing and prolonged snowfall season up there and down here. I actually worked up in Albany in the late 90s and early 00s for a time. Lovely area and you could see the mountains even from inside the city. I remember that storm! I was 7 at the time, mom got me my first "pro" skateboard and i remember not being able to leave the house to see family because of the snow. I distinctly remember making tunnels in the snow that christmas, good times. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 I hope we get a cold spring and summer. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 3 hours ago, EasternLI said: I totally buy the eps furnace after the briefest arctic shot known to man. The end of the 00z has a real roasting in progress. If it showed a cold flip, we’d discount it. But since it’s this ‘winter’ I’d bet money that it pans out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: I hope we get a cold spring and summer. Honestly, me too. But I accept I’m an anomaly there. My wife and I hike but never go or do anything in the summer. It’s just too hot. Prefer winter hiking in snow and cool spring / fall hiking. We’re going into NE for my bday next week and originally was hoping to get into some snowpack, but we’d have to go pretty far north at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 12 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I hope we get a cold spring and summer. We haven't had a cold summer in over a decade so that ain't happening. And just because winter has been a torch doesn't mean spring will be cold. We could easily roll this torch into the spring/summer like 2012 Btw does anyone have March-May temperature departures after a warm Jan/Feb particularly years when Jan/Feb were +2 or greater over the last 10-15 years 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 4 minutes ago, Eduardo said: If it showed a cold flip, we’d discount it. But since it’s this ‘winter’ I’d bet money that it pans out. I'd buy a cold flip if there was a solid reason to. Right now, there's all the reason to buy a torch. So it makes sense tbh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 2 minutes ago, EasternLI said: I'd buy a cold flip if there was a solid reason to. Right now, there's all the reason to buy a torch. So it makes sense tbh. I'm kinda with Liberty and I'm looking for one torchy summer and hopefully ENSO will kick us into a semi decent winter next year 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 If we could just bag one moderate event before the super torch in the period coming up around the 11th-14th where the Euro showed a coastal yesterday, an unmitigated torch would go down quite a bit easier. Definitely may be some potential there, could just end up as rain or an inland only event for sure. But it’s better than absolutely zilch to watch. Depending upon timing I may be inadvertently chasing that one in NE. I’ll be sure to bring my good shell and an umbrella . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 15 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I hope we get a cold spring and summer. cold only if it snows otherwise it's useless and the sun going supernova would be much more fun to watch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: We haven't had a cold summer in over a decade so that ain't happening. And just because winter has been a torch doesn't mean spring will be cold. We could easily roll this torch into the spring/summer like 2012 Btw does anyone have March-May temperature departures after a warm Jan/Feb particularly years when Jan/Feb were +2 or greater over the last 10-15 years or just like 2002.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 1 minute ago, vegan_edible said: I'm kinda with Liberty and I'm looking for one torchy summer and hopefully ENSO will kick us into a semi decent winter next year We'll have to wait until spring plays out to see where we are with enso. There's a spring forecast barrier we need to get through to have a better idea how that looks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 Going to hit 70 this month 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 2 minutes ago, EasternLI said: We'll have to wait until spring plays out to see where we are with enso. There's a spring forecast barrier we need to get through to have a better idea how that looks. do you think there is there a chance of some type of quad la nina next year? sounds like hell 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 27 minutes ago, EasternLI said: It's just plain hard to get good looks in a la nina February any way you slice it. Unless, blocking. The way I see it, there's also some constructive interference from the MJO with la nina just prior to that. So there it is. West gets the trough, as you can see by the cold there. We ridge. Beyond that, it's a little iffy to me. The MJO might want to keep it moving. But also, the American guidance is saying the strat might need to be watched again now. Which may add uncertainty beyond that. You just know that one will go off too, just in time to ruin spring It seems like we had the worst possible series of events this year, an early season el nino type pattern when el ninos are usually backloaded and a late season la nina pattern, when la ninas are usually front loaded or book ends. That back end la nina scenario seems to be our only hope this season and we'd probably need a major SSW for that this season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Going to hit 70 this month A good cutter in 2nd half of Feb could really push things near 80F again However active Pacific jet makes things very progressive so I don't think we'll see that. January managed to torch with a high baseline rather than days of 60s & 70s. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 4 minutes ago, EasternLI said: We'll have to wait until spring plays out to see where we are with enso. There's a spring forecast barrier we need to get through to have a better idea how that looks. What causes the barrier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 Just now, SnoSki14 said: A good cutter in 2nd half of Feb could really push things near 80F again March will be warm This year as well. Mjo stuck in warm phases 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: What causes the barrier? I'd have to read up on that. I have a hunch but I'm not sure. I'm not even sure if that's known. I'm going to look into this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: March will be warm This year as well. Mjo stuck in warm phases I don't think MJO is that relevant tbh. We were in the cold phases in January and it didn't matter. It's usually only relevant when there's constructive interference 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 8 minutes ago, vegan_edible said: do you think there is there a chance of some type of quad la nina next year? sounds like hell That is extremely unlikely. Enso neutral is still a possibility. El nino is favored. However we just can't be certain of anything just yet. Easily get burned at this time of year making assumptions with enso. That much I'm certain of. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 48 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I hope we get a cold spring and summer. those are dead 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 55 minutes ago, EasternLI said: It's just plain hard to get good looks in a la nina February any way you slice it. Unless, blocking. pretty much all of our good patterns involve blocking 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 Cold Spring? Eh, unless it's snowing who needs that? A warmer than average Spring is at least enjoyable and not overbearing. As a NYC resident, things collapse winter-wise shortly after mid March (with some scattered exceptions) so I'm done with Winter by then! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 30 minutes ago, Allsnow said: March will be warm This year as well. Mjo stuck in warm phases Hope you bust 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 4 minutes ago, forkyfork said: those are dead Hurricane this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Hurricane this year? It's coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 34 minutes ago, Allsnow said: March will be warm This year as well. Mjo stuck in warm phases Where do you see this? Smarter and safer to expect a warm March, yes. But I just checked out the MJO on a page that lists all the model forecasts for it and it generally looked like it’s moving pretty quickly. I’m not good with MJO prognostication though by any means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 57 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: We haven't had a cold summer in over a decade so that ain't happening. And just because winter has been a torch doesn't mean spring will be cold. We could easily roll this torch into the spring/summer like 2012 Btw does anyone have March-May temperature departures after a warm Jan/Feb particularly years when Jan/Feb were +2 or greater over the last 10-15 years Summer of 2014 was cold and dreary. Remember bringing my kids to a carnival in early August and we all had sweatshirts on in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 46 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Going to hit 70 this month 2018 again. We DID get a moderate snow event during that epic torch so although it looks warm we cannot assume no snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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