February 2023

[Winterweatherlover]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

a rude awakening after a very mild January and February in 1990 and then back to warmth by mid March and then snow in early April lol

 

Very odd to feel like winter is starting at the end of February. 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Very odd to feel like winter is starting at the end of February. 

it does make sense though with shortening wavelengths

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That was the only double digit March with so little snowfall by 2-26.

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	Season
1955-1956	0.0	2.2	3.8	2.4	2.4	26.0	3.4	40.2
1957-1958	T	T	16.2	6.3	16.3	19.5	T	58.3
1959-1960	0.0	0.4	9.1	3.6	5.2	19.0	T	37.3
1966-1967	0.0	0.0	12.6	1.3	25.4	18.0	T	57.3
1992-1993	0.0	T	0.5	0.8	10.7	16.8	0.0	28.8
2014-2015	T	1.4	0.3	14.9	13.5	16.3	T	46.4
1940-1941	T	1.5	3.6	11.6	6.2	14.5	0.0	37.4
2017-2018	0.0	T	7.7	10.1	3.4	13.2	5.0	39.4
1995-1996	0.0	3.0	12.8	31.6	18.4	11.9	0.7	78.4
1991-1992	0.0	T	0.5	1.0	1.0	11.4	T	13.9

I remember that March, it was the first 6" snowfall after many years at Central Park (JFK wasn't so lucky, they had a couple of inches) followed by a second snowfall later in March that was bigger and colder here but less at Central Park....am I remembering that correctly Chris?  Do you know offhand what two dates those snowfalls were on in March and the total for each storm at both Central Park and JFK? I think it was 6.2 and 3.2 for Central Park and something like 2.5 and 3.5 at JFK.  First was a daytime storm the second was a night time storm.

 

[SACRUS]

Sun out anf up to 47 here.

[lee59]

6 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Sun out anf up to 47 here.

Yea it looks like west of Staten Island temps in mid 40s. Still 37 here but starting to brighten.

[LibertyBell]

29 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Yea it looks like west of Staten Island temps in mid 40s. Still 37 here but starting to brighten.

Very bright and sunny here, I guess we'll get close to 50 after all

[psv88]

43

[winterwx21]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Very bright and sunny here, I guess we'll get close to 50 after all

It made it up to 53 here. Turned into a beautiful afternoon. 

[donsutherland1]

Colder air will begin filtering into the region overnight. That will set the stage for the area's biggest snowfall so far this season. At present, it appears that New York City and Newark are in line for 1"-3" of snow before the precipitation changes to rain. Immediately north and west of the City, 2"-4" is likely. In the far northern suburbs, 3"-6" of snow is likely.

Another storm is possible in the March 3-4 timeframe.

The guidance has grown milder for the first week of March. The EPS now suggests readings could wind up somewhat above normal. The latest ECMWF weekly forecast suggests that the second week of March could transition toward a colder regime that could last into the closing week of March.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around February 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.56°C. La Niña conditions fading and they should evolve to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring.

The SOI was +15.08 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.547 today.

On February 24 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.066 (RMM). The February 23-adjusted amplitude was 1.066 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 41.2° (5.3° above normal).

 

[DaveTinNY]

March 3-4 storm possibility.  Good.  I'm off after my prostate biopsy....  yippee!    At least the snow blower works as of this afternoon.  

[Stormlover74]

49 minutes ago, DaveTinNY said:

March 3-4 storm possibility.  Good.  I'm off after my prostate biopsy....  yippee!    At least the snow blower works as of this afternoon.  

Hope all is good with your ...umm..ya know

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will become mostly cloudy. Snow will overspread the region this evening. New York City and Newark will see a general 1”-3”, areas just outside New York City will pick up 2”-4”, and the far northern and western suburbs will see 3”-6”. Snow will likely mix with and change to rain along the coast. High temperatures will reach the lower 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 41°

Newark: 43°

Philadelphia: 46°

Precipitation will end tomorrow. 

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 44.8°; 15-Year: 45.1°

Newark: 30-Year: 45.8°; 15-Year: 46.2°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 47.3°; 15-Year: 47.3°

[CIK62]

The last 2 days of February are averaging    36degs.(32/40) or -2.

Month to date is     41.4[+5.7].        February will end at    41.0[+5.1].

Reached 52 here yesterday.

Today:    40-42, wind nw. to e.-breezy, clouding up, rain/snow by 7pm., 38 tomorrow AM.

35*(53%RH) here at 6am.       38* at 8am.       40* at 9am.      42* at Noon.        Reached 43* at 3pm.       39* at 6pm.    37* at 9am, wet snow.

 

[SACRUS]

Made it 52 yesterday of a morning low of 26 Sun AM.  Low was down around 30 this overnight and morning.  Would expect rain / mix to start here in the CNJ region between 7 and 10PM.   Looking for up to an inch here.

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 74 (1997)
LGA: 73 (1997)
NYC: 72 (1997)

Lows:

LGA: 9 (1950)
EWR: 7 (1934)
NYC: 5 (1900)

 

Historical:

1717 - What was perhaps the greatest snow in New England history commenced on this date. During a ten day period a series of four snowstorms dumped three feet of snow upon Boston, and the city was snowbound for two weeks. Up to six feet of snow was reported farther to the north, and drifts covered many one story homes. (David Ludlum)

1969 - A record snowstorm in Maine came to an end. Two to four feet of snow buried southern and central Maine, with a state record of 57 inches reported at West Forks. Drifts covered many single story homes, and the weight of the snow collapsed many roofs. Two to four feet of snow also buried northeastern Vermont and northeastern Massachusetts. In New Hampshire, Mount Washington NH reported 97.8 inches of snow, a record storm total for New England. (24th-28th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1986: It was 99 degrees in Palm Springs, California, the highest temperature on record for February. Palm Springs also reached 99 degrees on February 26, 1986.

1987 - A storm spread heavy snow into the Central High Plains Region, and produced severe thunderstorms in the Southern Plains. Snowfall totals in western Nebraska ranged up to 19 inches at Sydney. Severe thunderstorms in Oklahoma produced baseball size hail at Stringtown and Atoka. A storm in the eastern U.S. produced heavy rain over the Carolinas and heavy snow in the southern Appalachians and piedmont region. Five inches of rain left four feet of water in the streets of Greenville SC. Snowfall totals in southwestern Virginia ranged up to 20 inches. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thunderstorms along a cold front produced heavy rain in southern California, with up to 2.52 inches reported in Ventura County. Strong winds accompanying the rain gusted to 55 mph in the Tehachapi Mountains. Rapid City SD established a February record with an afternoon high of 75 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Rain and snow prevailed in the southeastern U.S. Up to eight inches of snow blanketed north central Tennessee, and snowfall totals in western North Carolina ranged up to 14 inches at Mount Mitchell. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - A winter storm produced heavy snow in southeastern Colorado, with 12 inches reported at Lamar. The same storm produced severe thunderstorms over the Southern High Plains, with wind gusts to 93 mph reported at the White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico. Low pressure brought high winds to the Prince William Sound area of Alaska. Big River Lakes reported wind gusts to 92 mph. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2010 - A weak EF0 tornado causes no damage as it moved across California's southern San Joaquin Valley. However it is the only tornado reported in the United States during the month. According to the Storm Prediction Center only five months since 1950 have lacked a tornado report. The Weather Doctor

 

 

[LibertyBell]

15 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

It made it up to 53 here. Turned into a beautiful afternoon. 

Got to about 50 here too, cant argue with how nice it was

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 74 (1997)
LGA: 73 (1997)
NYC: 72 (1997)

Lows:

LGA: 9 (1950)
EWR: 7 (1934)
NYC: 5 (1900)

 

Historical:

1717 - What was perhaps the greatest snow in New England history commenced on this date. During a ten day period a series of four snowstorms dumped three feet of snow upon Boston, and the city was snowbound for two weeks. Up to six feet of snow was reported farther to the north, and drifts covered many one story homes. (David Ludlum)

1969 - A record snowstorm in Maine came to an end. Two to four feet of snow buried southern and central Maine, with a state record of 57 inches reported at West Forks. Drifts covered many single story homes, and the weight of the snow collapsed many roofs. Two to four feet of snow also buried northeastern Vermont and northeastern Massachusetts. In New Hampshire, Mount Washington NH reported 97.8 inches of snow, a record storm total for New England. (24th-28th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1986: It was 99 degrees in Palm Springs, California, the highest temperature on record for February. Palm Springs also reached 99 degrees on February 26, 1986.

1987 - A storm spread heavy snow into the Central High Plains Region, and produced severe thunderstorms in the Southern Plains. Snowfall totals in western Nebraska ranged up to 19 inches at Sydney. Severe thunderstorms in Oklahoma produced baseball size hail at Stringtown and Atoka. A storm in the eastern U.S. produced heavy rain over the Carolinas and heavy snow in the southern Appalachians and piedmont region. Five inches of rain left four feet of water in the streets of Greenville SC. Snowfall totals in southwestern Virginia ranged up to 20 inches. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thunderstorms along a cold front produced heavy rain in southern California, with up to 2.52 inches reported in Ventura County. Strong winds accompanying the rain gusted to 55 mph in the Tehachapi Mountains. Rapid City SD established a February record with an afternoon high of 75 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Rain and snow prevailed in the southeastern U.S. Up to eight inches of snow blanketed north central Tennessee, and snowfall totals in western North Carolina ranged up to 14 inches at Mount Mitchell. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - A winter storm produced heavy snow in southeastern Colorado, with 12 inches reported at Lamar. The same storm produced severe thunderstorms over the Southern High Plains, with wind gusts to 93 mph reported at the White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico. Low pressure brought high winds to the Prince William Sound area of Alaska. Big River Lakes reported wind gusts to 92 mph. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2010 - A weak EF0 tornado causes no damage as it moved across California's southern San Joaquin Valley. However it is the only tornado reported in the United States during the month. According to the Storm Prediction Center only five months since 1950 have lacked a tornado report. The Weather Doctor

 

 

1717 - What was perhaps the greatest snow in New England history commenced on this date. During a ten day period a series of four snowstorms dumped three feet of snow upon Boston, and the city was snowbound for two weeks. Up to six feet of snow was reported farther to the north, and drifts covered many one story homes. (David Ludlum)

This was the greatest snowstorm in the recorded history of the northeast-- any idea how much we got down here?

 

That it was shockingly warm on this date in 1997, and at the beginning of April we (almost) got a big snowstorm!

 

[brooklynwx99]

the EPS (and GEPS to a lesser extent) is basically a perfect pattern progression. every synoptic feature is here for a major storm somewhere on the EC around the 10th:

• highly anomalous, decaying -NAO over the Davis Strait
• anomalous -EPO/-WPO to deliver Arctic air into the E US
• highly anomalous, semi-permanent 50/50 ULL
• signal for a vigorous S/W ejecting out of the Rockies as the PNA trends neutral... likely ending up slightly positive due to the Pacific Rex block

I want to see increased ENS support for this progression, mainly from the GEFS, but this is about as high-end of a pattern progression as you can get. compare this to the 7-day preloading composite for NYC's 18"+ storms... there are any of the same pattern features, namely the decaying west-based block and deep 50/50 ULL. this composite applies for you guys, as well. the same pattern is needed for NYC south to see its biggest storms

I don't mean to honk this early, but this is the best looking pattern progression since Feb 2021, which was the last classic MA blizzard (unfortunately scraped you guys to the N). many of the same features show up there, as well. it's not a coincidence

[Gravity Wave]

The Signal on the EPS for the 10th is really strong considering the range. The number of sub-980 lows showing up (several 950s and a 948 even!) is especially remarkable.

[donsutherland1]

A storm will bring New York City and Newark 1"-3" of snow before the precipitation changes to rain overnight. Immediately north and west of the City, 2"-4" is likely. In the far northern and western suburbs, 3"-6" of snow is likely. The precipitation will end tomorrow. It will remain cool.

Wednesday and especially Thursday will be milder. Temperatures will likely surge well into the 50s on Thursday ahead of a cold front.

Another storm is possible later Friday into Saturday.

The guidance has grown milder for the first week of March. The EPS now suggests readings could wind up somewhat above normal. The latest ECMWF weekly forecast suggests that the second week of March could transition toward a colder regime that could last into the closing week of March.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around February 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.56°C. La Niña conditions fading and they should evolve to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring.

The SOI was not available today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.363 today.

MJO data was unavailable.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 41.2° (5.3° above normal).

 

[CIK62]

The last day of February is averaging     36degs.(33/40) or -3.

Month to date is       41.3[+5.5].         February should end at    41.1[+5.2].      Possibly No.3 and the tenth February to make the Top Ten in the last 34 years.

Reached 43 here yesterday.

Today:    39-41, wind e. to n., rain till Noon, clearing late, 32 tomorrow AM.

35*(83%RH) here at 6am.       36* at 8am.      38* at 10am.      40*-37* from Noon to 8pm.

[SACRUS]

Records:

 

Highs:

EWR:  68 (1976)
NYC: 67 (1976)
LGA: 66 (1976)

 

Lows:

EWR: 1 (1934)
NYC: 5 (1934)
LGA: 10 (2014)

 

Historical:

 

1846: William S. Forrest, in "Historical and Descriptive Sketches of Norfolk and Vicinity" in 1853, recorded the Great Gust of 1846. The Great Gust was a severe coastal storm that produced 5 feet waves in Norfolk. 

 

1900 - A massive storm spread record snows from Kansas to New York State. Snowfall totals rangeD up to 17.5 inches at Springfield IL and 43 inches at Rochester NY, with up to 60 inches in the Adirondack Mountains of New York State. (David Ludlum)

1952 - An intense storm brought coastal sections of southeastern Massachusetts to a halt, stranding 3000 motorists on Lower Cape, and leaving ten thousand homes on the Cape without electricity. Winds gusting to 72 mph created mountainous snowdrifts of the 18 inches of snow which buried Nantucket and Hyannis. A barometric pressure reading of 29.02 inches was reported at the center of the storm. (The Weather Channel)

1962: Wilmington, North Carolina, reached a high temperature of 85 degrees. This is the warmest temperature on record during February. 

1987 - A powerful storm produced severe thunderstorms in Louisiana and Mississippi early in the day. About mid morning a monstrous tornado touched down near Moselle MS and grew to a width of two miles as it passed near Laurel MS. The tornado traveled a distance of 40 miles killing six persons, injuring 350 others, and causing 28.5 million dollars damage. The tornado swept homes right off their foundations, and tossed eighteen wheel trucks about like toys. Strong straight line winds associated with the powerful storm system gusted to 70 mph at Jonesboro AR and Carbondale IL. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thunderstorms in California produced severe weather during the early morning hours. Strong thunderstorm winds, gusting to 74 mph, downed trees in the Sacramento area. Unseasonably mild weather prevailed in the northwestern U.S. The afternoon high of 71 degrees at Portland OR was a February record. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Thunderstorms in the southeast corner of the nation produced winds gusts to 58 mph at Fort Lauderdale FL, and a total of seven inches of rain. Heavy snow whitened parts of the Northern Plateau and the Northern Rockies, with ten inches reported at Marion MT. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Showers and thunderstorms over the Southern Plains Region capped a record wet February for parts of Oklahoma. Totals for the month ranged up to 9.11 inches at McCurtain, with 4.63 inches reported at Oklahoma City. Snow and sleet fell across northern Oklahoma, with four inches reported at Freedom and Jefferson. Snow also spread across southern Kansas into Missouri and Arkansas, with six inches of snow reported at Harrison AR. In Alaska, February temperatures at Nome averaged 21 degrees below normal, ranging from -38 degrees to 29 degrees during the month. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2012 - The first confirmed February tornado in Nebraska state history struck Lincoln and Logan Counties shortly after 4PM. The EF-0 tornado was on the ground intermittently for up to six minutes and traveled 3 miles before dissipating in southwest Logan County. The path of the tornado was over open rangeland and cropland where limited damage occurred. Patches of snow were still on the ground at the time. (NWS North Platte)

 

[vegan_edible]

any thoughts on this friday/saturday system? seems like a bust kinda but maybe something to keep the eyes on?

[cleetussnow]

27 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

any thoughts on this friday/saturday system? seems like a bust kinda but maybe something to keep the eyes on?

rain

[allgame830]

1 hour ago, cleetussnow said:

rain

It may end as some wet snow up here by us Friday night. But who knows 

[Rjay]

On 2/27/2023 at 3:25 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

 

 

Still looks amazing. 

[donsutherland1]

In the wake of New York City's biggest snowstorm of the winter, temperatures remained in the 30s throughout the day. As a result, February concluded with a mean temperature of 41.1°, which was 5.2° above normal. That was warm enough to rank as the City's 3rd warmest February on record. All of the top 3 have occurred since 2017. All of the top 5 have occurred since 2002.

It will turn milder tomorrow. Thursday will be unseasonably mild. Temperatures will likely surge well into the 50s ahead of a cold front.

Another storm is possible later Friday into Saturday. From Philadelphia to New York City, the storm will likely be mostly or all rain. Some frozen precipitation is possible well to the north and west of the cities.

After a somewhat warmer than normal start, a colder regime will likely develop and could last into the closing week of March. Overall, March will likely wind up colder than normal.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around February 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.50°C. La Niña conditions fading and they should evolve to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring.

The SOI was +6.58 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.363 today.

On February 25 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.771 (RMM). The February 24-adjusted amplitude was 0.792 (RMM).

 

[Santa Claus]

i would think damp air would make you feel colder than dry air at the same temperature and wind, given the specific heat of water, but it seems like the reduced evaporation might overwhelm that effect.  night like this feels warm relatively speaking.

if i was a real engineer instead of a glorified dilbert character i'd still be able to calculate this.  actually i might just do that idk

[Nibor]

28 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

i would think damp air would make you feel colder than dry air at the same temperature and wind, given the specific heat of water, but it seems like the reduced evaporation might overwhelm that effect.  night like this feels warm relatively speaking.

if i was a real engineer instead of a glorified dilbert character i'd still be able to calculate this.  actually i might just do that idk

I believe in you. You’ve got this. 

[RU848789]

This is where we need better ptype algorithms or to at least have them explained better.  This is a perfect example of how TT and Pivotal account for sleet (TT counts it as 10:1 snow, while Pivotal does not appear to count it at all).  Look at those two vs. CoolWx graphic for EWR, showing 3" of snow and then 0.88" LE as sleet (about 3" of sleet) and a little rain.  If this is right, this would be a major winter storm, just without the pretty snow falling (sleet is just as hard to plow as snow - same mass per inch of LE - and it melts more slowly than snow due to its much lower surface area per unit volume in each particle).  And even though TT is showing about 0.3-0.4" frozen LE for EWR (vs. maybe 0.1" for Pivotal), that's a helluva lot less than the 1.14" frozen LE for CoolWx - so their algorithm for determining ptype must be a bit different.  It's why mixed precip events are so hard to model/forecast.  I don't have a lot of experience with the CoolWx model precip type representations...