February 2023

[USCG RS]

1 hour ago, Cfa said:

Middle Island:

 

No accumulation anywhere else.

At least the dogs and cats will be able see it on their way out 

[Dark Star]

I counted 27 flurries in Garwood (central Union County NJ)

[Stormlover74]

Just now, Winterweatherlover said:

18z RGEM very sheared out and dry but I guess a good luck for staying mostly snow. 

Yeah 4" looks about the max but 2 to 4 for most

[winterwx21]

2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Should be snowing right now based on radar.....looks out window....it is not

Yeah we had only very light radar echoes going over us. Too light to reach the ground. The better radar echoes missed us to the north unfortunately. 

[Allsnow]

Did Central Park get snow today? 

[Rjay]

9 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Did Central Park get snow today? 

Yea. They reported light snow.  

[donsutherland1]

44 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Did Central Park get snow today? 

A trace.

[donsutherland1]

[MJO812]

Nothing here

[donsutherland1]

In the wake of today's light snow that brought coatings outside New York City and Newark, clouds will break overnight. Much milder air will return tomorrow.

Afterward, another system could bring snow changing to rain to the region. At present areas just to the north and west of New York City could see 1"-3" Monday into Monday night. Areas well north and west of the City could pick up 3"-6".

The guidance has grown milder for the first week of March. The EPS now suggests readings could wind up somewhat above normal. The latest ECMWF weekly forecast suggests that the second week of March could transition toward a colder regime that could last into the closing week of March.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around February 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.56°C. La Niña conditions fading and they should evolve to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring.

The SOI was +13.93 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +3.506 today.

On February 23 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.066 (RMM). The February 22-adjusted amplitude was 1.209 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 41.2° (5.3° above normal).

 

[LibertyBell]

12 hours ago, Cfa said:

Middle Island:

 

No accumulation anywhere else.

That looks like cake to me....

I got hungry looking at that lol

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah we had only very light radar echoes going over us. Too light to reach the ground. The better radar echoes missed us to the north unfortunately. 

what happened to the second band of snow that was supposed to come at us from the south?

[CIK62]

The last 3 days of February  are averaging        37degs.(32/43) or -1.

Month to date is       41.5[+5.9].          February should end at       41.1[+5.6].

Reached 34 here yesterday.

Today:   47-50, wind sw. to w.-breezy, p. cloudy, 31 tomorrow AM.

10-Day Snows on the EURO:       The ENS. gives this a 10% chance.

31*(71%RH) here at 6am.        33* at 8am.       38* at Noon.       40* at 1pm.        50* at 3:30pm.      Reached 52* here at 4:15pm.      46* at 6pm.      48* at 9pm.      47* at 10pm.

[lee59]

Temperatures in suburbs dropped to the teens and low 20s last night, 30 degrees in the city. 19 here.

[LibertyBell]

13 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Temperatures in suburbs dropped to the teens and low 20s last night, 30 degrees in the city. 19 here.

Great night for radiational cooling...but the recovery today will be just as quick lol.

[donsutherland1]

New York City's snow season futility rankings through February 25th:

That will change by the end of Monday. 100% of EPS members now show 1" or more snow for NYC. The National Blend of Models has 2.1" (11z run).

[SnoSki14]

4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

New York City's snow season futility rankings through February 25th:

That will change by the end of Monday. 100% of EPS members now show 1" or more snow for NYC. The National Blend of Models has 2.1" (11z run).

Was 0.5" the record for least snowfall for the D-F timeframe? 

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

New York City's snow season futility rankings through February 25th:

That will change by the end of Monday. 100% of EPS members now show 1" or more snow for NYC. The National Blend of Models has 2.1" (11z run).

How much is the difference between Central Park and JFK on the EPS members and the National Blend of Models, Don?

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

Was 0.5" the record for least snowfall for the D-F timeframe? 

Indeed that will hold from 1997-98 because this is going to happen on the last full night and day of February.

But that is just calendar gymnastics so it doesn't really matter, it's the record for the whole season which actually matters.

 

[Stormlover74]

Doesn't mean much for tomorrow but nam keeps us in the 40s today

[SACRUS]

Records:

 

Highs:

EWR: 68 (2002)
NYC: 65 (1890)
LGA: 62 (1976)

Lows::

LGA: 9 (1990)
EWR: 8 (1990)
NYC: 7 (1990)

 

Historical:

1910 - Parts of Washington State were in the midst of a storm which produced 129 inches of snow at Laconia between the 24th and the 26th, a single storm record for the state. A series of storms, which began on the 23rd, led to a deadly avalanche on the first of March. By late on the 28th, the snow had changed to rain, setting the stage for disaster. (The Weather Channel)

1972 - The Buffalo Creek disaster occurred in the Buffalo Creek Hollow of Logan County in West Virginia. A coal slag dam on the Middle Fork of Buffalo Creek burst sending a fifty foot wall of water down a narrow valley killing 125 persons and causing 51 million dollars damage. Three days of rain atop a six inches snow cover prompted the dam break. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1987 - A slow moving storm in the southwestern U.S. spread heavy snow from the southern and central Rockies into the Central High Plains Region. Totals in Colorado ranged up to 62 inches at Purgatory. Colorado Springs CO reported a February record of 14.8 inches of snow in 24 hours. Lander WY received four inches in one hour, 13 inches in seven hours, and a record storm total of 26 inches. High winds created near blizzard conditions at Colorado Springs. Fairplay CO reported 43 inches of snow, with drifts ten feet high. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Eight cities in the central and western U.S. reported new record high temperatures for the date, including Lamoni IA with a reading of 67 degrees. Temperatures in North Dakota were as warm as those in Florida. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - An upper level weather disturbance brought snow to parts of the central U.S. which just one day earlier were enjoying temperatures in the 60s. Snowfall totals in Missouri ranged up to nine inches at Rolla. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Unseasonably cold weather followed in the wake of the winter storm in the northeastern U.S. Ten cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Syracuse NY with a reading of 10 degrees below zero. Freezing temperatures in southeastern Virginia caused considerable damage to plants and fruit trees. The barometric pressure reading of 30.88 inches at Wilmington NC was February record for that location. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

February 26, 1998:

A substantial area of low pressure moved across central and northeast South Dakota from the morning of the 26th to the morning of the 27th. As the low moved northeast, cold north winds of 25 to 35 mph gusting to 45 mph caused widespread rain to change over to snow. Many roads became icy and poor visibilities in snow and blowing snow, and low wind chills developed. Four to 8 inches of snow fell across the counties bordering the Missouri River and in far western McPherson and far western Edmunds counties. Many area schools were dismissed early or canceled. Some residents, especially West River, lost power during the storm. Many McIntosh residents were without power for over 24 hours. Numerous activities and sports events were canceled. Some car accidents did not result in injury. A semi rolled onto its side northwest of Gettysburg on the 26th. Ranchers also experienced some calving problems as a result of the winter storm. Some snowfall amounts included 4 inches at Selby, Herreid, and Mobridge, 5 inches at Isabel, 6 inches at Gettysburg, 7 inches about 11 miles east of Hosmer, and 8 inches at McIntosh. Due to the heavy snow and strong winds, some large drifts also developed, especially West River.

2004 - A major snowstorm dumps up to 20 inches of snow in the Charlotte metropolitan area. Charlotte's third largest snowstorm on record accumulates 11.6 inches at the airport.

[SACRUS]

Daylight 11H:08M or roughly equivalent to Oct 15.

[lee59]

I am beginning to doubt today's forecast high of close to 50. Still cloudy with temperatures in the low to mid 30s. We"ll see what the afternoon brings.

[Rjay]

Up to 35 after a low of 19

[SACRUS]

38 minutes ago, lee59 said:

I am beginning to doubt today's forecast high of close to 50. Still cloudy with temperatures in the low to mid 30s. We"ll see what the afternoon brings.

Low clouds beginning to burn off but could be a bit below forecast highs, agree

 

[donsutherland1]

3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Was 0.5" the record for least snowfall for the D-F timeframe? 

Yes. That's the record.

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 

 

We could set a new record for seasonal snowfall following under 5” by 2-26.

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Feb 26	Seasonal  Smowfall
1	2023-02-26	0.4
2	1998-02-26	0.5	5.5
3	1919-02-26	1.1	3.8
4	1973-02-26	2.6	2.8
5	1992-02-26	3.2	12.6
6	2002-02-26	3.5	3.5
7	1932-02-26	4.7	5.3
8	2020-02-26	4.8	4.8

 

 

It's a pity it doesn't come after 2/28 though it would fun to see a nearly snowless DJF and then get it all in March and April lol.

The perfectionist in me hates that it's coming on February 28th.

 

[donsutherland1]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

How much is the difference between Central Park and JFK on the EPS members and the National Blend of Models, Don?

 

45/51 (88%) of EPS members have 1" or more for JFK Airport. The 16z NBM shows 1.2".

[LibertyBell]

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 

 

We could set a new record for seasonal snowfall following under 5” by 2-26.

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Feb 26	Seasonal  Smowfall
1	2023-02-26	0.4
2	1998-02-26	0.5	5.5
3	1919-02-26	1.1	3.8
4	1973-02-26	2.6	2.8
5	1992-02-26	3.2	12.6
6	2002-02-26	3.5	3.5
7	1932-02-26	4.7	5.3
8	2020-02-26	4.8	4.8

 

 

wow only 1992 even got into double digits, and the comeback that year was entirely in March wasn't it?  I remember we had two decent sized March storms that year. One was about 6 inches and the other one was close to 4 inches.  The 6 inch one was less at JFK as the conditions were marginal and it occurred in the day time.  The later one was colder and happened at night but it underperformed, it was supposed to be 5-8 but  we ended up with 3-5

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

Records:

 

Highs:

EWR: 68 (2002)
NYC: 65 (1890)
LGA: 62 (1976)

Lows::

LGA: 9 (1990)
EWR: 8 (1990)
NYC: 7 (1990)

 

Historical:

1910 - Parts of Washington State were in the midst of a storm which produced 129 inches of snow at Laconia between the 24th and the 26th, a single storm record for the state. A series of storms, which began on the 23rd, led to a deadly avalanche on the first of March. By late on the 28th, the snow had changed to rain, setting the stage for disaster. (The Weather Channel)

1972 - The Buffalo Creek disaster occurred in the Buffalo Creek Hollow of Logan County in West Virginia. A coal slag dam on the Middle Fork of Buffalo Creek burst sending a fifty foot wall of water down a narrow valley killing 125 persons and causing 51 million dollars damage. Three days of rain atop a six inches snow cover prompted the dam break. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1987 - A slow moving storm in the southwestern U.S. spread heavy snow from the southern and central Rockies into the Central High Plains Region. Totals in Colorado ranged up to 62 inches at Purgatory. Colorado Springs CO reported a February record of 14.8 inches of snow in 24 hours. Lander WY received four inches in one hour, 13 inches in seven hours, and a record storm total of 26 inches. High winds created near blizzard conditions at Colorado Springs. Fairplay CO reported 43 inches of snow, with drifts ten feet high. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Eight cities in the central and western U.S. reported new record high temperatures for the date, including Lamoni IA with a reading of 67 degrees. Temperatures in North Dakota were as warm as those in Florida. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - An upper level weather disturbance brought snow to parts of the central U.S. which just one day earlier were enjoying temperatures in the 60s. Snowfall totals in Missouri ranged up to nine inches at Rolla. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Unseasonably cold weather followed in the wake of the winter storm in the northeastern U.S. Ten cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Syracuse NY with a reading of 10 degrees below zero. Freezing temperatures in southeastern Virginia caused considerable damage to plants and fruit trees. The barometric pressure reading of 30.88 inches at Wilmington NC was February record for that location. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

February 26, 1998:

A substantial area of low pressure moved across central and northeast South Dakota from the morning of the 26th to the morning of the 27th. As the low moved northeast, cold north winds of 25 to 35 mph gusting to 45 mph caused widespread rain to change over to snow. Many roads became icy and poor visibilities in snow and blowing snow, and low wind chills developed. Four to 8 inches of snow fell across the counties bordering the Missouri River and in far western McPherson and far western Edmunds counties. Many area schools were dismissed early or canceled. Some residents, especially West River, lost power during the storm. Many McIntosh residents were without power for over 24 hours. Numerous activities and sports events were canceled. Some car accidents did not result in injury. A semi rolled onto its side northwest of Gettysburg on the 26th. Ranchers also experienced some calving problems as a result of the winter storm. Some snowfall amounts included 4 inches at Selby, Herreid, and Mobridge, 5 inches at Isabel, 6 inches at Gettysburg, 7 inches about 11 miles east of Hosmer, and 8 inches at McIntosh. Due to the heavy snow and strong winds, some large drifts also developed, especially West River.

2004 - A major snowstorm dumps up to 20 inches of snow in the Charlotte metropolitan area. Charlotte's third largest snowstorm on record accumulates 11.6 inches at the airport.

a rude awakening after a very mild January and February in 1990 and then back to warmth by mid March and then snow in early April lol