Rjay Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, wdrag said: Not a severe change and not only that but reliance on the GFS as primary guide not likely best solution. Plus all the guidance I've been looking at including ensembles has suggested to me the following as locally posted to a set of friends early this morning. 3-6" for SC and Poconos northward to OF and Boston area. Cannot use literal amounts at 72 hours. GFS hasn't had much for LI/NYC as I've been monitoring it..less than 1". When the Canadian (warmer model than EC/GFS) dumps it... then I question. 12z Canadian continues south of GFS. I'll await demise when Canadian and EC quit. The CMC at hr 66 is colder than the gfs for sure. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 6 minutes ago, wdrag said: Not a severe change and not only that but reliance on the GFS as primary guide not likely best solution. Plus all the guidance I've been looking at including ensembles has suggested to me the following as locally posted to a set of friends early this morning. 3-6" for SC and Poconos northward to OF and Boston area. Cannot use literal amounts at 72 hours. GFS hasn't had much for LI/NYC as I've been monitoring it..less than 1". When the Canadian (warmer model than EC/GFS) dumps it... then I question. 12z Canadian continues south of GFS. I'll await demise when Canadian and EC quit. I don’t disagree with you. I think we are on the same page here. The Canadian models on board is a huge flag that this is a real threat for accumulating snow down to NYC. Gfs should be of low consideration right now unless any other models trend to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Mood flakes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 This has already been the best storm of the winter, giant flakes sticking right away. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 O snap..moderate snow, and starting to dust the grass. Already biggest snowfall of the yr 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 1 minute ago, Rjay said: Just did a comparison. Colder than 0z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Flurries starting here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 New storm thread is up to jinx nyc 1 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Like seeing an amped GFS & suppressed CMC for the 3/4. Final result could be somewhere in the middle 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 The gfs looks on its own planet for next weekend as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 6 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: I don’t disagree with you. I think we are on the same page here. The Canadian models on board is a huge flag that this is a real threat for accumulating snow down to NYC. Gfs should be of low consideration right now unless any other models trend to it. I've grown bit more conservative in my 60th year attempting these forecasts (probably should have learned that 25 years ago). Forum can say and do whatever, though myself... I think whatever we say needs to be with consideration of whatever results. Thanks for your update. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 1 minute ago, Rjay said: New storm thread is up to jinx nyc good. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Gfs has an exciting solution for 3/4, I see a 970s mb low over my noggin there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 15 minutes ago, dWave said: Lots of budding for sure. Some Cherry blossoms have bloomed too. Lasts night low 20s, dropped some though. Any flowers you'd typically see sprouting up in March to early Apr started showing up soon after that brief early Feb artic cold shot. Around the city, this winter has been almost devoid of freezing lows temps outside of 2 short cold shots Here's lower Manhattan near 1 PP yday. whats a motion photo? I clicked on it but nothing happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Mod snow big flakes solid coating so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Almost to an inch on the snowboards from this band. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Snow seems to be tapering off now here. Just measured 1.5" of fluff on driveway and concrete sidewalk. 19° 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 3 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Hopefully the stuff in pa can make it here without drying out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Snowing! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said: The gfs looks on its own planet for next weekend as well. I don't think so. Look at all ens qpf. While EPS is still down, it has 1/2" qpf up here and some of that will be snow just w of I95. The 00z EC operational went pretty big snow in VA (check it) from nill all prior cycles. It's tasting the stronger short wave potential. I expect the GGEM to come on board by the 12z/26 cycle. If not, then GFS wayyyyy off but I give this time. GGEM 12/25z op likes the 3/2 event very strong and have doubts. If its not strong on 3/2, then this will probably drift to a bigger storm for the ne USA on Fri-Sat. I have to give this time to wiper back and forth at D6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 19 moderate snow, about 1/2 inch 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 52 minutes ago, FPizz said: Clouds with sun breaking through. Can't even get flurries RGEM took away the widespread half inch for today. Other models and radar don't look very good either. Not looking good for our area now today ... we'll be lucky to see a light dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxstormwatcher360 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 I think this incoming batch is gonna surprize everyone. I got a coating from that nobx/westchester co line band that has moved north,but in comes a rather healthy batch of precip. This is n.y.c's time to get some snow down finally. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: whats a motion photo? I clicked on it but nothing happened Oh..that a feature of the phone but I had to take a screenshot of the pic to make the file size fit here. Thats just on the screenshot it won't work for real here. It would of been a mini video. I did just get a dusting of snow on grassy surfaces here from a nice band of snow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 1 minute ago, wdrag said: I don't think so. Look at all ens qpf. While EPS is still down, it has 1/2" qpf up here and some of that will be snow just w of I95. The 00z EC operational went pretty big snow in VA (check it) from nill all prior cycles. It's tasting the stronger short wave potential. I expect the GGEM to come on board by the 12z/26 cycle. If not, then GFS wayyyyy off but I give this time. GGEM 12/25z op likes the 3/2 event very strong and have doubts. If its not strong on 3/2, then this will probably drift to a bigger storm for the ne USA on Fri-Sat. I have to give this time to wiper back and forth at D6. Thanks for the analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Ukie way warmer for Monday-Tuesday. Another model like gfs I would put low stock in though but potentially a more amped up/ warmer solution is still on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said: Ukie way warmer for Monday-Tuesday. Another model like gfs I would put low stock in though. Unfortunately we don't have a cold air mass ahead of this. That's a bigger problem than anything 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: Unfortunately we don't have a cold air mass ahead of this. That's a bigger problem than anything Looking at the run the best dynamics on the Ukie run go into NW NJ and the HV. The city is only 0.2 qpf through 12z Tue. So some of it lack of cold air but some of it is where does that initial heavy moisture focus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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