February 2023

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

The 10:1 maps are ridiculously inflated for this event. Can't take them seriously at all. This Euro run is showing a lot of sleet, which would really cut down totals. 

sleet is 2:1 right? that means it would be less than an inch.

 

[winterwx21]

Euro did improve slightly for later today. It gives most of the area a half inch now. Looks like RGEM. 

[jm1220]

12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I had to laugh, the Hollywood Sign beating us is the truest sign of a bad winter lol

 

This "winter" has one hell of a sense of humor.

LA snow dusts Hollywood sign as winter storm tightens grip (yahoo.com)

Why experts say this could be biggest snow event in decades - Los Angeles Times (latimes.com)

[jm1220]

14 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

10:1 ratios are not going to work Monday

It won't but verbatim 7-8:1 would still be a plowable/moderate event and could increase Central Park's snow for the season by 1000%.

But I'm still expecting the inevitable tick back north these have. The dampening shortwave is the fly in the ointment that might prevent that though.

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

This "winter" has one hell of a sense of humor.

LA snow dusts Hollywood sign as winter storm tightens grip (yahoo.com)

Why experts say this could be biggest snow event in decades - Los Angeles Times (latimes.com)

I want to see how far south the snow actually gets down to the coast

Blizzard warning so close to San Diego is crazy too

[Rtd208]

[snowman19]

The new NAM shows the risk for Mon/Tues….it absolutely torches the midlevels. Gives 1 inch total of snow even up here in Rockland. Yes, I know the NAM isn’t good but in the past, it has done a pretty good job of picking up on midlevel warming/warm tongues where no other model had it. Has this as a ping fest. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snodpc_acc-imp&rh=2023022506&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

[weatherpruf]

55 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The new NAM shows the risk for Mon/Tues….it absolutely torches the midlevels. Gives 1 inch total of snow even up here in Rockland. Yes, I know the NAM isn’t good but in the past, it has done a pretty good job of picking up on midlevel warming/warm tongues where no other model had it. Has this as a ping fest. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snodpc_acc-imp&rh=2023022506&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

In crap winters we usually can eke out a sleet event. This might be it. Don't care for sleet, rather not see anything or just rain.

[Allsnow]

Radar doesn’t look that bad in northern Pa 

[Allsnow]

06z euro even colder for The metro

 

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

06z euro even colder for The metro

 

4-5 inches for city on the euro 

[MJO812]

Just now, Allsnow said:

4-5 inches for city on the euro 

 

[lee59]

23 and cloudy here, Saranac Lake NY -22.

[SnoSki14]

29 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

4-5 inches for city on the euro 

Is the GFS on crack then. It's very different for this storm and the 3/4 system. 

[Allsnow]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Is the GFS on crack then. It's very different for this storm and the 3/4 system. 

Euro trending stronger with high and block 

[SnoSki14]

35 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Euro trending stronger with high and block 

In the past I would've locked into the Euro but it ain't what it used to be. 

Though on second glance you can see the confluence trend stronger on the GFS/GEFS however we aren't seeing surface changes yet.

If the Euro is correct then the GFS surface depiction should change substantially over the next 1-2 run. 

[SACRUS]

25 here - expecting some flakes in the next few hours

[donsutherland1]

New York City's snow season futility rankings through February 24th

Although some areas could be dusted today, the ensembles suggest a good chance of some accumulating snow for Monday.

[Allsnow]

Eps definitely colder 

[Allsnow]

Eps 4 inch mean nyc 

[SACRUS]

Records

Highs:

NYC: 75 (1930)
EWR: 68 (1976)
LGA: 68 (1976)
 

 

Lows:
 

NYC: 1 (1914)
EWR: 10 (1990)
LGA: 12 (1990)

Historical:

1914: Heavy snow fell over a good portion of South Carolina and North Carolina on February 24-26, 1914. Snowfall amounts include 18 inches near Society Hill, SC, 14 inches in Fayetteville, NC, 13 inches at Darlington, SC, 11.7 inches at Columbia, SC, 8.1 inches at Charlotte, SC, and 7.2 inches at Greensboro, NC, and 7.0 inches at Raleigh, NC.

1922 - The temperature at Los Angeles, CA, soared to 92 degrees to establish a record for the month of February. (David Ludlum)

1934: An outbreak of six tornadoes killed nineteen in Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia. The hardest-hit areas were Bowden, GA, and Shady Grove, AL. An estimated F4 tornado damaged or destroyed 90 homes, many in the Shady Grove community. One home in Lauderdale County, Mississippi, was picked up, thrown 400 feet, and blown to bits. Six family members were killed in the house. Three deaths occurred in two homes, and one preacher was killed during services. 

1977 - Dust reduced visibilities from eastern Virginia through the southeastern states to Florida between the 24th and the 28th. The dust originated in the western Great Plains on the 22nd and 23rd, with wind gusts above 100 mph reported at Guadalupe Pass TX, at White Sands NM, in Sherman County KS, and in eastern Colorado. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Low pressure in Nevada produced snow from the southwestern U.S. to the Dakotas. Snowfall totals in Arizona ranged up to 82 inches at Alpine. Flagstaff AZ reported 23 inches of snow in 24 hours. Other heavier snowfall totals included 20 inches at Daggett NV, 24 inches at Brian Head UT, 24 inches at Red Lodge MT, and 26 inches at Angel Fire NM. Snow at Los Alamos NM pushed their snowfall total for the winter past their previous record of 123.5 inches. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Overnight snow squalls in the Lower Great Lakes Region buried Pulaski NY under 17 inches of snow. Sunny and mild weather prevailed across the rest of the nation. Havre MT reported a record high of 66 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Thirteen cities in Florida reported record low temperatures for the date, including Jacksonville with a reading of 24 degrees. Severe cold in Florida claimed three lives, and resulted in 250 to 300 million dollars crop damage. Unseasonably warm weather prevailed in the central U.S. Dodge City KS reported record high of 80 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Snow spread across the northeastern U.S. Massachusetts was blanketed with 8 to 15 inches of snow, 5 to 10 inches was reported in Rhode Island, and totals in Connecticut ranged up to 10.5 inches at New Canaan. In central New York State, snow and high winds resulted in a number of chain-reaction multiple accidents, and a total of 108 persons were injured. Snow and high winds created white-out conditions along Interstate 87 in Saratoga County NY. Subzero cold was reported from Minnesota through Michigan to northern New England. Duluth MN reported a record low of 26 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2009 - Two Alaskan communities set their all-time records for highest windspeed. St. Paul registers a wind of 91 mph, and on St George Island the wind reaches 94 mph.

2010: A powerful nor'easter spread significant snow and windy conditions across the Middle Atlantic region from Thursday, February 25 into Friday, February 26. An area of low pressure developed off the Carolina coast late Wednesday night, February 24, and then strengthened as it tracked northward to near Long Island, New York, by Thursday evening. As low pressure aloft deepened over the Mid-Atlantic coast Thursday night into Friday, the surface low retrograded and moved westward into northern New Jersey and southern New York. By February 27, the low pushed into southern New England and gradually weakened over the weekend. Strong wind gusts were measured throughout the Middle Atlantic region due to this coastal storm. Some of the highest wind gusts recorded include 62 mph measured at Cape May, New Jersey; 52 mph at the Atlantic City Marina; 51 mph at the Mount Pocono Airport and Lewes, Delaware; and 50 mph at Dover Air Force Base. In addition, wind gusts of 40 mph or higher were recorded in Philadelphia, Wilmington, and Allentown. Considerable blowing and drifting snow resulted, especially from the Poconos eastward into northern New Jersey. Snow drifts as high as 3 to 5 feet were seen across portions of Warren and Sussex counties in New Jersey. Total accumulations of 20 inches or more were recorded from Morris and Sussex counties in New Jersey, westward into Monroe County, Pennsylvania. In addition, a band of 12 to 18 inches of snow accumulation was measured from Warren and Morris counties in New Jersey westward to Lehigh County, Pennsylvania. In addition to snow that accumulated during the daytime on Thursday, many locations across the region experienced a heavier burst of snow with gusty winds Thursday night into early Friday, thanks to additional moisture wrapped around the low-pressure system. Some areas saw snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour, mainly from northern New Jersey and into the Poconos. Central Park ended the month with 36.9 inches of snow, making this the snowiest month since records began in 1869.

 

2017: An EF1 tornado was confirmed in Goshen and Conway County, MA. This tornado was the first-ever recorded in February for M.A. since records began.

 

Maps from 2010 storm

 

[wilsonvoid1]

 

i'll take that and run honestly. And half an inch today. With this winter even the feen is happy


.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will be mostly cloudy with some light snow and flurries. A minor accumulation is possible. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 30s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 33°

Newark: 35°

Philadelphia: 36°

Milder air will return tomorrow. 

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 44.3°; 15-Year: 44.5°

Newark: 30-Year: 45.3°; 15-Year: 45.6°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 46.7°; 15-Year: 46.6°

[Winterweatherlover]

6 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

It would this season lol.  We were wowed by 2-4 back in the mid 80s through early 90s too.  4 inches was like having a snow day.

 

Thanks. That was my point if we get an advisory level snow and flip to sleet and little or no rain it would be kind of wow for this winter. Also Euro is close to warning level snow just north of the city. I get some of that may end up sleet so have to watch mid levels closely. 

[CIK62]

The last 4 days of February are averaging     38degs.(31/45) or Normal.

Month to date is     42.0[+6.5].        February should end at    41.4[+5.5].

Reached 47 here yesterday at 9am.

Today:   34-37, wind e. to se. to sw., p. cloudy, 32 tomorrow AM.

26*(50%RH) here at 6am{was 24* at 3am}.       28* at 8am.      30* at 9am.       32* at Noon.      33* at 3pm.       34* at 6pm.      33* at 9pm.

[LibertyBell]

26 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Thanks. That was my point if we get an advisory level snow and flip to sleet and little or no rain it would be kind of wow for this winter. Also Euro is close to warning level snow just north of the city. I get some of that may end up sleet so have to watch mid levels closely. 

I was reading earlier about whether or not the New York City snowfall record was going to stand from 1972-73.  I want to say that if Central Park gets more than that, but JFK doesn't exceed their snowfall total from 1972-73 then this year should be considered the lowest New York City snowfall.  JFK is part of New York City and way more people live near JFK than live near Central Park, so the record has more relevance if JFK gets it.  Our total is officially 0.2 currently so let's see what we do, there's a good chance we won't get anything next week.  If JFK sets their new record it should be the new record for the entire city.

 

[LibertyBell]

50 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Records

Highs:

NYC: 75 (1930)
EWR: 68 (1976)
LGA: 68 (1976)
 

 

Lows:
 

NYC: 1 (1914)
EWR: 10 (1990)
LGA: 12 (1990)

Historical:

1914: Heavy snow fell over a good portion of South Carolina and North Carolina on February 24-26, 1914. Snowfall amounts include 18 inches near Society Hill, SC, 14 inches in Fayetteville, NC, 13 inches at Darlington, SC, 11.7 inches at Columbia, SC, 8.1 inches at Charlotte, SC, and 7.2 inches at Greensboro, NC, and 7.0 inches at Raleigh, NC.

1922 - The temperature at Los Angeles, CA, soared to 92 degrees to establish a record for the month of February. (David Ludlum)

1934: An outbreak of six tornadoes killed nineteen in Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia. The hardest-hit areas were Bowden, GA, and Shady Grove, AL. An estimated F4 tornado damaged or destroyed 90 homes, many in the Shady Grove community. One home in Lauderdale County, Mississippi, was picked up, thrown 400 feet, and blown to bits. Six family members were killed in the house. Three deaths occurred in two homes, and one preacher was killed during services. 

1977 - Dust reduced visibilities from eastern Virginia through the southeastern states to Florida between the 24th and the 28th. The dust originated in the western Great Plains on the 22nd and 23rd, with wind gusts above 100 mph reported at Guadalupe Pass TX, at White Sands NM, in Sherman County KS, and in eastern Colorado. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Low pressure in Nevada produced snow from the southwestern U.S. to the Dakotas. Snowfall totals in Arizona ranged up to 82 inches at Alpine. Flagstaff AZ reported 23 inches of snow in 24 hours. Other heavier snowfall totals included 20 inches at Daggett NV, 24 inches at Brian Head UT, 24 inches at Red Lodge MT, and 26 inches at Angel Fire NM. Snow at Los Alamos NM pushed their snowfall total for the winter past their previous record of 123.5 inches. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Overnight snow squalls in the Lower Great Lakes Region buried Pulaski NY under 17 inches of snow. Sunny and mild weather prevailed across the rest of the nation. Havre MT reported a record high of 66 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Thirteen cities in Florida reported record low temperatures for the date, including Jacksonville with a reading of 24 degrees. Severe cold in Florida claimed three lives, and resulted in 250 to 300 million dollars crop damage. Unseasonably warm weather prevailed in the central U.S. Dodge City KS reported record high of 80 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Snow spread across the northeastern U.S. Massachusetts was blanketed with 8 to 15 inches of snow, 5 to 10 inches was reported in Rhode Island, and totals in Connecticut ranged up to 10.5 inches at New Canaan. In central New York State, snow and high winds resulted in a number of chain-reaction multiple accidents, and a total of 108 persons were injured. Snow and high winds created white-out conditions along Interstate 87 in Saratoga County NY. Subzero cold was reported from Minnesota through Michigan to northern New England. Duluth MN reported a record low of 26 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2009 - Two Alaskan communities set their all-time records for highest windspeed. St. Paul registers a wind of 91 mph, and on St George Island the wind reaches 94 mph.

2010: A powerful nor'easter spread significant snow and windy conditions across the Middle Atlantic region from Thursday, February 25 into Friday, February 26. An area of low pressure developed off the Carolina coast late Wednesday night, February 24, and then strengthened as it tracked northward to near Long Island, New York, by Thursday evening. As low pressure aloft deepened over the Mid-Atlantic coast Thursday night into Friday, the surface low retrograded and moved westward into northern New Jersey and southern New York. By February 27, the low pushed into southern New England and gradually weakened over the weekend. Strong wind gusts were measured throughout the Middle Atlantic region due to this coastal storm. Some of the highest wind gusts recorded include 62 mph measured at Cape May, New Jersey; 52 mph at the Atlantic City Marina; 51 mph at the Mount Pocono Airport and Lewes, Delaware; and 50 mph at Dover Air Force Base. In addition, wind gusts of 40 mph or higher were recorded in Philadelphia, Wilmington, and Allentown. Considerable blowing and drifting snow resulted, especially from the Poconos eastward into northern New Jersey. Snow drifts as high as 3 to 5 feet were seen across portions of Warren and Sussex counties in New Jersey. Total accumulations of 20 inches or more were recorded from Morris and Sussex counties in New Jersey, westward into Monroe County, Pennsylvania. In addition, a band of 12 to 18 inches of snow accumulation was measured from Warren and Morris counties in New Jersey westward to Lehigh County, Pennsylvania. In addition to snow that accumulated during the daytime on Thursday, many locations across the region experienced a heavier burst of snow with gusty winds Thursday night into early Friday, thanks to additional moisture wrapped around the low-pressure system. Some areas saw snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour, mainly from northern New Jersey and into the Poconos. Central Park ended the month with 36.9 inches of snow, making this the snowiest month since records began in 1869.

 

2017: An EF1 tornado was confirmed in Goshen and Conway County, MA. This tornado was the first-ever recorded in February for M.A. since records began.

 

Maps from 2010 storm

 

Wow interesting that you mentioned Monroe County in PA for that 2010 storm.  My house in PA is in Carbon County in the mountains near Jim Thorpe, they also had over 20"+ I think?

[LibertyBell]

53 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Records

Highs:

NYC: 75 (1930)
EWR: 68 (1976)
LGA: 68 (1976)
 

 

Lows:
 

NYC: 1 (1914)
EWR: 10 (1990)
LGA: 12 (1990)

Historical:

1914: Heavy snow fell over a good portion of South Carolina and North Carolina on February 24-26, 1914. Snowfall amounts include 18 inches near Society Hill, SC, 14 inches in Fayetteville, NC, 13 inches at Darlington, SC, 11.7 inches at Columbia, SC, 8.1 inches at Charlotte, SC, and 7.2 inches at Greensboro, NC, and 7.0 inches at Raleigh, NC.

1922 - The temperature at Los Angeles, CA, soared to 92 degrees to establish a record for the month of February. (David Ludlum)

1934: An outbreak of six tornadoes killed nineteen in Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia. The hardest-hit areas were Bowden, GA, and Shady Grove, AL. An estimated F4 tornado damaged or destroyed 90 homes, many in the Shady Grove community. One home in Lauderdale County, Mississippi, was picked up, thrown 400 feet, and blown to bits. Six family members were killed in the house. Three deaths occurred in two homes, and one preacher was killed during services. 

1977 - Dust reduced visibilities from eastern Virginia through the southeastern states to Florida between the 24th and the 28th. The dust originated in the western Great Plains on the 22nd and 23rd, with wind gusts above 100 mph reported at Guadalupe Pass TX, at White Sands NM, in Sherman County KS, and in eastern Colorado. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Low pressure in Nevada produced snow from the southwestern U.S. to the Dakotas. Snowfall totals in Arizona ranged up to 82 inches at Alpine. Flagstaff AZ reported 23 inches of snow in 24 hours. Other heavier snowfall totals included 20 inches at Daggett NV, 24 inches at Brian Head UT, 24 inches at Red Lodge MT, and 26 inches at Angel Fire NM. Snow at Los Alamos NM pushed their snowfall total for the winter past their previous record of 123.5 inches. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Overnight snow squalls in the Lower Great Lakes Region buried Pulaski NY under 17 inches of snow. Sunny and mild weather prevailed across the rest of the nation. Havre MT reported a record high of 66 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Thirteen cities in Florida reported record low temperatures for the date, including Jacksonville with a reading of 24 degrees. Severe cold in Florida claimed three lives, and resulted in 250 to 300 million dollars crop damage. Unseasonably warm weather prevailed in the central U.S. Dodge City KS reported record high of 80 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Snow spread across the northeastern U.S. Massachusetts was blanketed with 8 to 15 inches of snow, 5 to 10 inches was reported in Rhode Island, and totals in Connecticut ranged up to 10.5 inches at New Canaan. In central New York State, snow and high winds resulted in a number of chain-reaction multiple accidents, and a total of 108 persons were injured. Snow and high winds created white-out conditions along Interstate 87 in Saratoga County NY. Subzero cold was reported from Minnesota through Michigan to northern New England. Duluth MN reported a record low of 26 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2009 - Two Alaskan communities set their all-time records for highest windspeed. St. Paul registers a wind of 91 mph, and on St George Island the wind reaches 94 mph.

2010: A powerful nor'easter spread significant snow and windy conditions across the Middle Atlantic region from Thursday, February 25 into Friday, February 26. An area of low pressure developed off the Carolina coast late Wednesday night, February 24, and then strengthened as it tracked northward to near Long Island, New York, by Thursday evening. As low pressure aloft deepened over the Mid-Atlantic coast Thursday night into Friday, the surface low retrograded and moved westward into northern New Jersey and southern New York. By February 27, the low pushed into southern New England and gradually weakened over the weekend. Strong wind gusts were measured throughout the Middle Atlantic region due to this coastal storm. Some of the highest wind gusts recorded include 62 mph measured at Cape May, New Jersey; 52 mph at the Atlantic City Marina; 51 mph at the Mount Pocono Airport and Lewes, Delaware; and 50 mph at Dover Air Force Base. In addition, wind gusts of 40 mph or higher were recorded in Philadelphia, Wilmington, and Allentown. Considerable blowing and drifting snow resulted, especially from the Poconos eastward into northern New Jersey. Snow drifts as high as 3 to 5 feet were seen across portions of Warren and Sussex counties in New Jersey. Total accumulations of 20 inches or more were recorded from Morris and Sussex counties in New Jersey, westward into Monroe County, Pennsylvania. In addition, a band of 12 to 18 inches of snow accumulation was measured from Warren and Morris counties in New Jersey westward to Lehigh County, Pennsylvania. In addition to snow that accumulated during the daytime on Thursday, many locations across the region experienced a heavier burst of snow with gusty winds Thursday night into early Friday, thanks to additional moisture wrapped around the low-pressure system. Some areas saw snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour, mainly from northern New Jersey and into the Poconos. Central Park ended the month with 36.9 inches of snow, making this the snowiest month since records began in 1869.

 

2017: An EF1 tornado was confirmed in Goshen and Conway County, MA. This tornado was the first-ever recorded in February for M.A. since records began.

 

Maps from 2010 storm

 

Crazy that it was this cold here in 1990 after 2 months of warmth and what happened in Mid March lol.  Did NYC get into the single digits?

 

[Winterweatherlover]

38 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I was reading earlier about whether or not the New York City snowfall record was going to stand from 1972-73.  I want to say that if Central Park gets more than that, but JFK doesn't exceed their snowfall total from 1972-73 then this year should be considered the lowest New York City snowfall.  JFK is part of New York City and way more people live near JFK than live near Central Park, so the record has more relevance if JFK gets it.  Our total is officially 0.2 currently so let's see what we do, there's a good chance we won't get anything next week.  If JFK sets their new record it should be the new record for the entire city.

 

Yea could be noticeable difference between jfk and cpk in this setup but also may not be, all depends where the gradient sets up. Reminds me of the old days where it seems it may set up in or near the city. 

[sussexcountyobs]

Light snow falling, sticking to all surfaces. 18°