Winterweatherlover Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 0Z RGEM slightly juicier for tomorrow About the same as last run if anything slightly south/colder for Monday. Actually noticeably colder, the city/LI stays all frozen through end of the run. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 6 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: 0Z RGEM slightly juicier for tomorrow About the same as last run if anything slightly south/colder for Monday. Actually noticeably colder, the city/LI stays all frozen through end of the run. Yes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Yes No way in this pattern does it snow 2.2"at LVI and 5" at Central Park. WE all get some snow. These clown maps are getting hilarious. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 14 minutes ago, Albedoman said: No way in this pattern does it snow 2.2"at LVI and 5" at Central Park. WE all get some snow. These clown maps are getting hilarious. The kuchera map is a little more realistic, has 2.8 inches in NYC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 18 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: 0Z RGEM slightly juicier for tomorrow About the same as last run if anything slightly south/colder for Monday. Actually noticeably colder, the city/LI stays all frozen through end of the run. It has a mid 980s low headed through N Michigan. I'll never be thrilled with that although it does start to form the coastal low fairly quickly. It's some snow to a crap ton of sleet where I am, probably a quick change to rain on the south shore/southern NYC. The warm layer comes in quick at 750-800mb so there's definitely still some good WAA. Looks like it's battling some dry air once you get into New England and the good dynamics from the developing coastal system that stays a little suppressed could hurt them verbatim. IMO this is about as good an outcome as we can hope for around NYC unless there's a major change in the evolution and the primary dies a lot quicker. My money is on this trending north again like almost every SWFE does at the end, it goes back to the good snow being focused on I-90/Boston and we have the quick sleet to rain near the city. But maybe this can be the diamond in the rough SWFE I mentioned earlier that comes along every few years and the confluence/blocking can really make a difference this time. Who knows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 12 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: The kuchera map is a little more realistic, has 2.8 inches in NYC. Snow ratios in this will be less than 10-1 most likely since the best lifting won't be in the DGZ which is -12 to -18C. The mid levels will be warmer since the strong WAA will be coming in. I took a sounding near HPN at 81hr and the DGZ isn't entirely saturated and it's all the way up at 15000-17000 feet. Column isn't fully saturated until you're down at 700mb which is where the strong WAA starts and you're already close to 0C. Edit I checked the 18z run by mistake but at 75hr at the same spot the idea is the same. It does have the entire column 1C cooler or so, so the run did trend a bit cooler. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 36 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: 0Z RGEM slightly juicier for tomorrow About the same as last run if anything slightly south/colder for Monday. Actually noticeably colder, the city/LI stays all frozen through end of the run. RGEM now says we get a solid half inch tomorrow. How sad is it that I'm excited about that? lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 0z GFS still garbage for Mon/Tue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 25, 2023 Author Share Posted February 25, 2023 5 minutes ago, jm1220 said: 0z GFS still garbage for Mon/Tue. In Canada we trust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 it's south though 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 0Z cmc similar to RGEM for Mon/Tue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 16 minutes ago, jm1220 said: 0z GFS still garbage for Mon/Tue. Came south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 9 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: In Canada we trust And Europe. Honestly I don’t really care what the gfs shows, it’s usually not going to be right if it’s alone. Also the 0Z gfs is def a trend in direction of other models. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Couple inches definitely on the table. That block means business. I don't trust the gfs. It's slowly trending towards the other models. Full cave by tommor afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Will be interesting to see which models win this though because the gfs is also hammering an inland snowstorm next weekend and other models are suppressed so we’ll see if gfs is having an over amped bias in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 12 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Came south True. Like I said we’ll see what happens here. Seems to be overall a weaker/ sheared out trend too, but a stronger wave would try to erode the confluence more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 6 minutes ago, jm1220 said: True. Like I said we’ll see what happens here. Seems to be overall a weaker/ sheared out trend too, but a stronger wave would try to erode the confluence more. Yea probably want weaker and sheared out unless you’re I90 on north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 UKMET cut way back on the snow for the NYC area. Still a little snow, but not even half of what it had at 12z and it now says you have to go northwest to get significant amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: UKMET cut way back on the snow for the NYC area. Still a little snow, but not even half of what it had at 12z and it now says you have to go northwest to get significant amounts. Yea it def went north but still has decent snow immediately nw of the city. Ukie is also a model I don’t care much about but I wonder if the euro will cut back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Snow ratios in this will be less than 10-1 most likely since the best lifting won't be in the DGZ which is -12 to -18C. The mid levels will be warmer since the strong WAA will be coming in. I took a sounding near HPN at 81hr and the DGZ isn't entirely saturated and it's all the way up at 15000-17000 feet. Column isn't fully saturated until you're down at 700mb which is where the strong WAA starts and you're already close to 0C. Edit I checked the 18z run by mistake but at 75hr at the same spot the idea is the same. It does have the entire column 1C cooler or so, so the run did trend a bit cooler. Either way, you are not getting 10:1 ratios on Monday, it’s going to be lower than that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Yes sign me up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 2 hours ago, jm1220 said: It has a mid 980s low headed through N Michigan. I'll never be thrilled with that although it does start to form the coastal low fairly quickly. It's some snow to a crap ton of sleet where I am, probably a quick change to rain on the south shore/southern NYC. The warm layer comes in quick at 750-800mb so there's definitely still some good WAA. Looks like it's battling some dry air once you get into New England and the good dynamics from the developing coastal system that stays a little suppressed could hurt them verbatim. IMO this is about as good an outcome as we can hope for around NYC unless there's a major change in the evolution and the primary dies a lot quicker. My money is on this trending north again like almost every SWFE does at the end, it goes back to the good snow being focused on I-90/Boston and we have the quick sleet to rain near the city. But maybe this can be the diamond in the rough SWFE I mentioned earlier that comes along every few years and the confluence/blocking can really make a difference this time. Who knows. February 2008? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Euro does look snowy from I-78 north with the Mon PM/Tue storm but it's due to shearing out/weakening the S/W which weakens the precip overall and forces it south under the confluence. A stronger wave would nudge it north. It has minor snow/coating for tomorrow. We get split by one area going upstate and another going through S NJ. I'd gladly take whatever snow we get and if by some miracle it's a plowable snow even better. This winter is so pathetic that the Hollywood Sign's beating NYC in seasonal snow now. Never thought that day would ever come. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: no maps or amounts posted? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 9 hours ago, jm1220 said: Last winter they did much better than NYC too between suppressed storms and being lucky with the late Jan blizzard. I think they ended with 37” and NYC only had 18”? ACY to ISP does better in la ninas 88-89 was another one like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 1 minute ago, Rtd208 said: Thanks! a little better than I expected :-) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: Using Kuchera 2-4 in area wide. I guess that qualifies as “wow” The 10:1 maps are ridiculously inflated for this event. Can't take them seriously at all. This Euro run is showing a lot of sleet, which would really cut down totals. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 3 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Using Kuchera 2-4 in area wide. I guess that qualifies as “wow” It would this season lol. We were wowed by 2-4 back in the mid 80s through early 90s too. 4 inches was like having a snow day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 3 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Euro does look snowy from I-78 north with the Mon PM/Tue storm but it's due to shearing out/weakening the S/W which weakens the precip overall and forces it south under the confluence. A stronger wave would nudge it north. It has minor snow/coating for tomorrow. We get split by one area going upstate and another going through S NJ. I'd gladly take whatever snow we get and if by some miracle it's a plowable snow even better. This winter is so pathetic that the Hollywood Sign's beating NYC in seasonal snow now. Never thought that day would ever come. I had to laugh, the Hollywood Sign beating us is the truest sign of a bad winter lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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