NorthShoreWx Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Winter's gonna have to do an awful lot of remedial homework to avoid that F. As for the ill will engendered with some of the other members here, that ship sailed long ago. But I'm willing to forgive if I see the effort made. Also 4" snow last night at 1k feet in Glen, NH. Significant underperformer. Snow chase fail. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 43 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I'd rather us just torch and be completely done with this god awful winter. The blocking will just make March/April miserable. It will come down to the RNA strength as the AO goes negative. If the models trend stronger with the RNA we warm, the opposite we snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 33 minutes ago, mikem81 said: UKMET def came south Yup. Still a ways away. N and E is best S and W is worse since the blocking is East. Eastern LI can do well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 15 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: A little frustrating that the models have one batch of precip missing us to the north saturday and another batch missing to the south. We could be the screw zone in the middle with just flurries here. Not that it would be anything more than a minor event, but it would be nice to take advantage of the rare cold air saturday and have a wintry day with a little accumulating snow. Not looking good right now, but as you said there's still a chance. Enough time for it to trend back to being a half inch to 1 inch light snow event for us. That is a classic system where models will underestimate any overrunning til very late...the southern area is gonna miss but I'd watch inside 48 to see if suddenly we start seeing a widespread area of light snows from CNJ into SNE...the Euro has been showing it somewhat and the RGEM/NAM did last night before losing it today 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Ukie looks good for 2/28. I don’t think the Ukie is that good of a model but interesting to see what Euro looks like. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 12 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: Ukie looks good for 2/28. I don’t think the Ukie is that good of a model but interesting to see what Euro looks like. Its been on the snow train here for both 2/25 and 2/28 so far for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Warm air is so close today but still hanging in the mid 40s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Its been on the snow train here for both 2/25 and 2/28 so far for sure I heard somewhere Ukie counts sleet as snow, is that true? If so that could explain the higher totals on 2/28. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 4 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: I heard somewhere Ukie counts sleet as snow, is that true? If so that could explain the higher totals on 2/28. uk used to be a very decent model not so much these days.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 10 minutes ago, nycwinter said: uk used to be a very decent model not so much these days.. It was seen as 2nd to the Euro by most for a long time, and the Canadian was hardly discussed. Times change! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Euro sucks for NYC and just inland Primary holds on too long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Euro sucks for NYC and just inland Primary holds on too long Yup. However this can still go either way plenty of time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 This is what I was alluding to earlier. Starts to get real interesting at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: If this winter’s not an F I can’t think of one that possibly could be. Flowers shooting up in mid February and bugs everywhere sitting on generously 1.5” for the season and no real threat to speak of (I don’t consider 2/28 a real threat yet where I am unless by some miracle it trends away from being another crap SWFE). Whatever takes this horse behind the barn and puts it out of its misery sooner, the better. GTFO “Winter” 22-23. If the professor were grading this winter on a curve, even taking into consideration the few cold days that we had it would still be an F,,, how about a double F ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Euro is terrible near the coast. Here we go… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: This is what I was alluding to earlier. Starts to get real interesting at this point. You need arctic air though otherwise you'll get rainy coastals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 How is that 70 degrees working out in the NYC metro today?? Asking for a friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 37 on the island with mist. Terrible! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Pretty terrible for Brooklyn, Queens, SI, and Manhattan. I guess not that terrible everywhere else, what a gradient near the city. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023022312&fh=144&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=sn10_acc-imp&m=ecmwf_full Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 16 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: It was seen as 2nd to the Euro by most for a long time, and the Canadian was hardly discussed. Times change! Pretty sure the UK is still 2nd, although those model verification scores are typically based on 500 mbar temps/pressures, iirc, and I don't know if we have accuracy scores on what all of us want, i.e., on NE US winter storms (I've asked some pros before and nobody has said we have that kind of data). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 12 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro sucks for NYC and just inland Primary holds on too long Perfect kick in the teeth run. Would be absolutely fitting for the bookend to be 50 miles NE of me or so getting buried while I sleet to rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: You need arctic air though otherwise you'll get rainy coastals Temps are fine at this point and the PNA is still rising. In Mid March a high of 34 at CPK works. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: Temps are fine at this point and the PNA is still rising. In Mid March a high of 34 at CPK works. Yea Mid March is ok but we'll basically have a one week window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Euro does give us a coating saturday. As Snowgoose said, we probably have a better chance of seeing a little snow on the ground saturday than we do for next week's storm. At least we have cold air saturday if we can get a little moisture in here. Hopefully the models will beef that up a little as it gets closer. Next week's storm will probably end up as rain like all our other borderline events this winter. Hard to be optimistic about these storms that don't have decent cold air in place. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Just now, Winterweatherlover said: Yea Mid March is ok but we'll basically have a one week window. I mean it snowed in CPK in April 2018, but I agree the window is the 10th through the 20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Euro 12-15 Boston Nyc 0 brutal 2 1 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Euro does give us a coating saturday. As Snowgoose said, we probably have a better chance of seeing a little snow on the ground saturday than we do for next week's storm. At least we have cold air saturday if we can get a little moisture in here. Hopefully the models will beef that up a little as it gets closer. Next week's storm will probably end up as rain like all our other borderline events this winter. Hard to be optimistic about these storms that don't have decent cold air in place. Yea I was a bit more optimistic when the models were trending south but now that they are back north its pretty much over for Tuesday south of I84 and west of the CT border, we've seen this song and dance so many times I'm expecting another 50-100 mile north tick from where everything is right now. Maybe we'll be surprised but no reason to think otherwise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Euro 12-15 Boston Nyc 0 brutal No worries a big cutter washes it all away a few days later. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: Yea I was a bit more optimistic when the models were trending south but now that they are back north its pretty much over for Tuesday south of I84 and west of the CT border, we've seen this song and dance so many times I'm expecting another 50-100 mile north tick from where everything is right now. Maybe we'll be surprised but no reason to think otherwise. It's just the beginning of the Blocking period which usually favors the NE given the block is still east based. Our window is after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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