February 2023

[brooklynwx99]

and yes, the end of this month and March should be worlds better than January. January had zero cold air... you have no shot there

at least now, if a storm takes a favorable track, it's going to snow. we have a good source region. cold air is much more important. can't snow without it

[LibertyBell]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

getting an initial wave to drag a baroclinic zone south for another wave that actually produces snow isn't that rare. that's kind of what 50/50s do before larger storms sometimes

Yes but you need that 50/50.  In my experience that doesn't happen down here that often to get a decent amount of snow.  More farther north of course.

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

February is definitely better than January but still very bad.  Remember we spent a long time in the 50s and higher this month.  The beginning and end of the month were/will be better though.

 

That's all I am trying to get at. This January was a recent version of 97/98. That's why in 97/98 we waited till late March.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

and yes, the end of this month and March should be worlds better than January. January had zero cold air... you have no shot there

at least now, if a storm takes a favorable track, it's going to snow. we have a good source region. cold air is much more important. can't snow without it

Yes the beginning and end of the month are better, the middle two weeks however, were just as bad and in some cases worse than January.  We hit 70 on Long Island and spent multiple days in the 60s.

 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

That's all I am trying to get at. This January was a recent version of 97/98. That's why in 97/98 we waited till late March.

I can see that happening, March is known for fluke events in bad winters.

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

and yes, the end of this month and March should be worlds better than January. January had zero cold air... you have no shot there

at least now, if a storm takes a favorable track, it's going to snow. we have a good source region. cold air is much more important. can't snow without it

Thanks. I think this past January is a good recent example of 97/98. 

No chance when the entire continent is scoured of cold air.

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah agreed that neither pattern is good. I was just comparing a 97/98 vs. La Nina pattern like now. No cold in our continent vs. to our west. 

I'm not sure if cold air to our west is any good though, that pumps up the SE Ridge does it not?

Cold air to our north is actually better, it can seep in without moderating much.

Cold air to our west moderates quickly due to downsloping before it gets here, and it usually gets here after precipitation leaves (it dries out the air via that same downsloping process.)

[EastonSN+]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

I'm not sure if cold air to our west is any good though, that pumps up the SE Ridge does it not?

 

Both patterns are completely horrible for snow.

There is more potential for volatility in an strong RNA pattern than a stable maritime air pattern.

So for a strong RNA pattern you will get higher temp departures due to the SE ridge. However you have better chances for snow as the cold can be tapped into/dragged over briefly.

For a maritime 97/98 pattern, your average temps are lower due to the maritime air and tons of moisture, however there is no cold source in the entire continent to tap into. When a storm bombs out, it drags in air from the north. When Canada is well above average it's harder to wrap in cold enough air. 

 

 

[SRRTA22]

Yay a cold and miserable spring with possible pity snow 

 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Both patterns are completely horrible for snow.

There is more potential for volatility in an strong RNA pattern than a stable maritime air pattern.

So for a strong RNA pattern you will get higher temp departures due to the SE ridge. However you have better chances for snow as the cold can be tapped into/dragged over briefly.

For a maritime 97/98 pattern, your average temps are lower due to the maritime air and tons of moisture, however there is no cold source in the entire continent to tap into. When a storm bombs out, it drags in air from the north. When Canada is well above average it's harder to wrap in cold enough air. 

 

 

Yes I believe that's how we got snow in March 1998.

That's actually quite an exciting pattern to have cold air just to our north because there's a certain amount of unpredictability-- volatility like you said.  Models often underdo the progress of the cold air and historically we get colder than what they predicted.

 

[HailMan06]

8 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Not necessarily.  We live on a smaller continent where the Pacific Ocean dominates.  This isn't Asia.

I've actually played with 3D simulations where you can geoengineer the planet and the only way the country turns into a desert is if you create a large mountain range like the Himalayas.

It's useful to consider geoengineering to stop sea level rise and to limit the death toll that severe weather outbreaks and hurricanes cause.  Removing the gulf would definitely stop lethal severe weather outbreaks and some of our worst hurricanes.

Of course this is all hypothetical, there is no real way to eliminate large bodies of water lol.  But it's interesting to see what the planet would look like if it was changed.

That sounds really cool. Could you provide a link if that’s possible?

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes I believe that's how we got snow in March 1998.

That's actually quite an exciting pattern to have cold air just to our north because there's a certain amount of unpredictability-- volatility like you said.  Models often underdo the progress of the cold air and historically we get colder than what they predicted.

 

This is another reason this winter fascinates me. 

We had three distinct patterns already. Two of them, back to back, were the absolute worst pattern types for snow you can imagine, in the same year, in back to back months. THATS rare! 

 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

This is another reason this winter fascinates me. 

We had three distinct patterns already. Two of them, back to back, were the absolute worst pattern types for snow you can imagine, in the same year, in back to back months. THATS rare! 

 

early season el nino pattern and late season la nina pattern is the worst possible combo lol

 

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, HailMan06 said:

That sounds really cool. Could you provide a link if that’s possible?

Yes it's on Steam called

https://universesandbox.com

Universe Sandbox is a physics-based space simulator.

 

It merges gravity, climate, collision, and material interactions to reveal the beauty of our universe and the fragility of our planet.

 

Create, destroy, and interact on a scale you've never before imagined.

 

Rated Overwhelmingly Positive from over 11,000 Steam reviews

 

Model Earth's Climate

Watch sea ice grow and recede with the seasons because of the tilt of the Earth: change the tilt and change the seasons. Or move the Earth farther from the Sun and freeze the entire planet

 

http://universesandbox.com/blog/2014/10/climate/

 

http://universesandbox.com/blog/2014/10/climate/

 

http://universesandbox.com/blog/2014/10/climate/#FAQ

 

There's a version 2 in beta mode which is even better.

thread on version 2

https://steamcommunity.com/app/230290/discussions/0/485622866441501761/

[rclab]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Can we get this in the summer too? I'm hoping for that to cancel out the Gulf of Mexico toxicity and get a string of dry and hot summers

Liberty if you keep this up some of the reservoir area forum members are going to start up a ‘go fund me’ thread to send you to a sanctuary desert in the southwest. Stay well, as always …..

[psv88]

Snow all the way down to the coast in Northern California. Pretty rare out there to have snow at sea level. 

[SnoSki14]

12z Nam just completely shut down any possibility of warm air coming in tomorrow.

[psv88]

8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

12z Nam just completely shut down any possibility of warm air coming in tomorrow.

How much snow for the area?

[jm1220]

10 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

12z Nam just completely shut down any possibility of warm air coming in tomorrow.

So DC gets the summer like warmth, I-90 to Boston gets the winter storm, we get the lousy raw crap with drizzle. Sounds about right. 

[EastonSN+]

6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

My wag is that the NAO would do what we want it to do (like March 2018) if the Pacific was 'workable' instead of downright hostile. The persistent placement and orientation of that PAC ridge since early Jan is god awful as it keeps the PNA significantly negative and the trough location is such that the boundary is almost always well to our west. Typically there is enough variation so there are periods where the PNA/EPO are more conducive for cold bleeding southeastward and a favorable storm track. 

Great post by CAPE.

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

While we will have a strong -NAO at this time, I believe there's a high risk that this one, ironically, hooks up with the SE ridge, because of the overwhelming pacific. 

It's not apparent at all at H5; H5 looks generally good. But the warm 850 temps and surface flag high chance of ptype issues. The highest probs is a decent track, but "no cold air". This looks similar to the recurring issue we have had in the recent past, and it's a much different look than this week, with cold anomalies throughout the eastern CONUS and SE Canada.

Great post by JBenedet

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Great post by CAPE.

this is also why -nao rarely worked out in the 80s too

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Great post by JBenedet

Yep basically agreed with cape.

for - nao to work the Pacific needs to cooperate....it doesn't need to be great but it can't be utterly hostile either

 

[LibertyBell]

Problem is, as Chris and I have discussed in previous years, this is a highly stable pattern and tends to last for a few years.

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, SRRTA22 said:

Yay a cold and miserable spring with possible pity snow 

 

White rain that maybe sticks to grass, which is already growing. No thanks.

[Allsnow]

33 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

12z Nam just completely shut down any possibility of warm air coming in tomorrow.

Nam is a trash model…

[Winterweatherlover]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

and yes, the end of this month and March should be worlds better than January. January had zero cold air... you have no shot there

at least now, if a storm takes a favorable track, it's going to snow. we have a good source region. cold air is much more important. can't snow without it

Yea and even an unfavorable track maybe can provide front end snow (something that hasn’t even worked out at all this winter). 

[Stormlover74]

 

 

[Winterweatherlover]

39 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Snow all the way down to the coast in Northern California. Pretty rare out there to have snow at sea level. 

Yea pretty rare to snow on the pacific coast at sea level. Almost as rare as  no snow on the Atlantic coast at sea level anywhere south of New England all winter. 

[Tatamy]

8 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

 

 

Crazy day weather wise in the Mid-Atlantic yesterday.  I was on the east side of Baltimore yesterday afternoon and encountered a severe thunderstorm.  Crazy CTG lightning with it.  Later on when I was up near Reading, PA I encountered the precursor to the storm that later dropped the tornado in NJ.   Experienced heavy rain with wet snow flakes mixed in with it.