February 2023

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

Tornado threat?

That was interesting today, but I always feel guilty when I see that kind of damage.

I don't root for it and never would.

I know what it feels like when a bunch of trees fell on my property during a microburst and I had to replace part of my roof.

 

[snowman19]

Tornado threat?

The winter of day 9-10 “threats” lol

[donsutherland1]

New York City's snow season futility rankings through February 21st:

[MJO812]

4 hours ago, Rjay said:

Tornado threat?

No

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will be mostly cloudy. Showers are likely during the afternoon and at night. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 40s in most areas. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 44°

Newark: 45°

Philadelphia: 47°

Tomorrow will be mild. However,, from central New Jersey southward, it will be very warm. Philadelphia could see temperatures reach the lower and middle 70s.  Washington, DC could reach or exceed 80°.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 43.6°; 15-Year: 43.8°

Newark: 30-Year: 44.6°; 15-Year: 44.8°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 45.9°; 15-Year: 45.8°

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

New York City's snow season futility rankings through February 21st:

is 2.0 the proverbial perfect score Don?

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

New York City's snow season futility rankings through February 21st:

It's interesting that 2001-02 is the warmest winter on record by a mile and before this one no other winter was close.

Do they keep records for astronomical winter too Don or at least the four months of the snow season-- DJFM?

 

[SnoSki14]

Insanely low level snows possible in California. You know it'll be bad for us when LA can't get out of the 40s for highs in late Feb.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Morning thoughts…

Today will be mostly cloudy. Showers are likely during the afternoon and at night. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 40s in most areas. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 44°

Newark: 45°

Philadelphia: 47°

Tomorrow will be mild. However,, from central New Jersey southward, it will be very warm. Philadelphia could see temperatures reach the lower and middle 70s.  Washington, DC could reach or exceed 80°.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 43.6°; 15-Year: 43.8°

Newark: 30-Year: 44.6°; 15-Year: 44.8°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 45.9°; 15-Year: 45.8°

First 80 of the year for DC?  Perhaps Baltimore's too?

 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Insanely low level snows possible in California. You know it'll be bad for us when LA can't get out of the 40s for highs in late Feb.

I saw that!  Snow in the Hollywood Hills!

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I saw that!  Snow in the Hollywood Hills!

 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 

wow even 6-12 inches at 2000 feet is amazing, but 7 feet above 4000 feet!

[donsutherland1]

10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

is 2.0 the proverbial perfect score Don?

 

There is no perfect score, as those are standard deviations. If NYC stays below 1” of snow this winter, 2022-23 would probably be at or just above 2.0.

8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

It's interesting that 2001-02 is the warmest winter on record by a mile and before this one no other winter was close.

Do they keep records for astronomical winter too Don or at least the four months of the snow season-- DJFM?

 

I can construct a chart for the December-March period. Do you want total seasonal snowfall or December-March snowfall?

8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

First 80 of the year for DC?  Perhaps Baltimore's too?

 

Washington is more likely to reach 80 than Baltimore, but Baltimore has a chance.

[LibertyBell]

12 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

There is no perfect score, as those are standard deviations. If NYC stays below 1” of snow this winter, 2022-23 would probably be at or just above 2.0.

I can construct a chart for the December-March period. Do you want total seasonal snowfall or December-March snowfall?

Washington is more likely to reach 80 than Baltimore, but Baltimore has a chance.

Thanks Don!  I like total seasonal snowfall but I was looking for a warmest 4 month comparison to see how this season stacks up with 2001-02 and 1997-98

 

[CIK62]

The last 7 days of February are averaging     38degs.(33/44) or Normal.

Month to date is    42.5[+7.3].       February should end at    41.4[+5.5].

Reached 48 here yesterday at 3:30pm.

Today:    42-44, wind nw. to e., clouding up, rain by 2pm., 43 tomorrow AM.

40*(57%RH) here at 6am.     39* at 7am.    41* at 8am.      44* at 9am.        Reached 47* at 10:30am.      46* at 11am.       43* at 7pm.       42* at 8pm.

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

 

EWR: 70 (1997)
NYC: 69 (1997)
LGA:  70 (1997)

 

Lows:

EWR: 8 (1963)
NYC: 8 (1963)
LGA: 9 (1963)

Historical:

 

1773 - The memorable "Cold Sabbath" in New England history. Many persons froze extremities while going to church. (David Ludlum)

1936 - Although heat and dust prevailed in the spring and summer, early 1936 brought record cold to parts of the U.S. Sioux Center IA reported 42 inches of snow on the ground, a state record. (20th-22nd) (The Weather Channel)

1971: One of the worst snowstorms in Oklahoma history dumped up to 3 feet of snow on northwest Oklahoma from February 20nd to February 22. By the time the snow ended on the 22nd, the city of Buffalo had 36 inches of snow on the ground, setting the state record for storm-total snowfall. Winds of 30 to 50 mph caused snowdrifts up to 20 feet high. Follett, Texas, picked up 26 inches while Amarillo recorded 14 inches.

1986 - A twelve siege of heavy rain and snow, which produced widespread flooding and mudslides across northern and central California, finally came to an end. The storm caused more than 400 million dollars property damage. Bucks Lake, located in the Sierra Nevada Range, received 49.6 inches of rain during the twelve day period. (Storm Data)

1987 - A storm moving northeastward out of the Gulf of Mexico began to spread heavy snow across the Middle Atlantic Coast Region. Thunderstorms in northern Florida produced wind gusts to 65 mph in Alachua County. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Dry weather prevailed across the nation, with windy conditions from the Central Rockies to northern New England. Winds gusted to 58 mph at Cleveland OH, and reached 63 mph at Erie PA. Winds in the Central Rockies gusted to 120 mph at Mines Peak CO and Rendezvous Peak WY. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Strong northwesterly winds ushering cold arctic air into the north central U.S. produced snow squalls in the Great Lakes Region, with heavy snow near Lake Michigan. Totals in northwest Indiana ranged up to 24 inches at Gary, and up to 16 inches buried northeastern Illinois. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Thunderstorms developing along and ahead of a cold front produced severe weather from southern Mississippi to North Carolina. One thunderstorm spawned a tornado just prior to dawn which touched down near Opp AL injuring ten persons and causing half a million dollars damage. Thunderstorm winds injured four persons south of Troy AL, and five people at Columbus GA. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 76 mph at Dothan AL. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1998: Seven tornadoes struck east-central Florida late on this day and early on the 23rd. Three of the tornadoes were rated F3 on the Fujita scale. Twenty-four people were killed in Kissimmee alone. A total of 42 people were killed, 265 injured, and the total damage was $106 million.

[EastonSN+]

See, this is how you ruin a blocking pattern.

https://www.sfgate.com/weather/article/california-forecast-to-see-low-elevation-snow-17796312.php

Nearly entire population of California expected 'to see' snow

[donsutherland1]

17 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks Don!  I like total seasonal snowfall but I was looking for a warmest 4 month comparison to see how this season stacks up with 2001-02 and 1997-98

 

[bluewave]

4 of the top 10 warmest winters since the super El Niño.
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Dec through Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Season	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2001-2002	41.6	0
2	2022-2023	41.3	7
3	2015-2016	41.0	0
4	2011-2012	40.5	0
5	1931-1932	40.2	0
6	1997-1998	39.6	0
7	2016-2017	39.3	0
8	2019-2020	39.2	0
9	1990-1991	39.1	0
10	1998-1999	38.6	0

[EastonSN+]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

New York City's snow season futility rankings through February 21st:

Thanks as always Don.

So far the component that amazes me the most about this season has been the fact that we have not even had a fluke event. 01/02, 97/98 both had them in worse full season patterns IMO (striking out in December was what set this off and running).

The fact that we had a moderate event in February 2018 in a sea of 70s and 60s shows how rare this year is. 

Moving forward, although the RNA will continue to dominate and boost the SER, there are 2 relatively small windows in the ensembles where we can get that one event.

If we do not hit on either, I would have to put this winter as the most unique.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

4 of the top 10 warmest winters since the super El Niño.
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Dec through Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Season	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2001-2002	41.6	0
2	2022-2023	41.3	7
3	2015-2016	41.0	0
4	2011-2012	40.5	0
5	1931-1932	40.2	0
6	1997-1998	39.6	0
7	2016-2017	39.3	0
8	2019-2020	39.2	0
9	1990-1991	39.1	0
10	1998-1999	38.6	0

3 winters in that 41+ club, all since 2000.....and the top 4 winters since then too.

 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks as always Don.

So far the component that amazes me the most about this season has been the fact that we have not even had a fluke event. 01/02, 97/98 both had them in worse full season patterns IMO (striking out in December was what set this off and running).

The fact that we had a moderate event in February 2018 in a sea of 70s and 60s shows how rare this year is. 

Moving forward, although the RNA will continue to dominate and boost the SER, there are 2 relatively small windows in the ensembles where we can get that one event.

If we do not hit on either, I would have to put this winter as the most unique.

 

we have had plenty of below 10" snowfall seasons here though in the last 35 years, I really think 2018 was the massive outlier.

I guess you could say 1998 had a fluke event, but 2001-02 basically flatlined.

JFK will average below 15 inches of seasonal snowfall probably within the next 20 years.

 

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Don what do you think of this prediction.....within the next 20 years JFK will average below 15" of snow?

I can see that happening easily.

 

[EastonSN+]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

we have had plenty of below 10" snowfalls here though in the last 35 years, I really think 2018 was the massive outlier.

I guess you could say 1998 had a fluke event, but 2001-02 basically flatlined.

 

1998 would have finished with 0.5 had it not been for that one late March event. 

That year felt far more hopeless than this one. In 97/98 we had a super Nino setup like January so there was no cold air in all of North America. Basically a warmer version of this past January.

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Thanks Don, wow 2011-12 will be hard to match!  What was NYC seasonal snowfall if we exclude October?

 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

1998 would have finished with 0.5 had it not been for that one late March event. 

That year felt far more hopeless than this one. In 97/98 we had a super Nino setup like January so there was no cold air in all of North America. Basically a warmer version of this past January.

That was the fluke event, 2001-02 didn't have a fluke event, it was bad throughout including in March.

Say what about January?  This January trounced 1997-98 in warmth and every other January, look at the avg temp lol.

2001-02 was worse than 1997-98, I lived through both.  I have zero memory of that fluke March event so it had to be meaningless and melted an hour after it fell, but still 2001-02 was worse.

 

[EastonSN+]

So looking back in history, it seems that the two patterns that create winters such as this are strong Ninos or Ninas (conscious that there are other factors).

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

3 winters in that 41+ club, all since 2000.....and the top 4 winters since then too.

 

Record Western trough for this time of year.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

So looking back in history, it seems that the two patterns that create winters such as this are strong Ninos or Ninas (conscious that there are other factors).

neutral after la nina like 2001-02 is worse than either

strong el ninos can dump big snowstorms here

 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Record Western trough for this time of year.

Can we get this in the summer too? I'm hoping for that to cancel out the Gulf of Mexico toxicity and get a string of dry and hot summers