February 2023

[Great Snow 1717]

22 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

U just declared winter over lol. Don't do it to yourself.  I mean I'm pulling for atleast one sizeable storm but not counting on it.  There is another storm right behind this one on the 1st. Hopefully cash in on one 

Something that never began can't be over with lol

[snowman19]

@donsutherland1 Turns out MJO phase 8 isn’t as cold on the composites in March as it is in Dec, Jan, Feb…so even if it gets there, it’s not going to live up to the hype

[wdrag]

1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said:

I mean I hope you are right and at least some parts of the subforum can see an inch of snow tomorrow but given how the winter has gone and how good the RGEM has generally been it's hard to bet against it unless it caves.  

Just a little patience for all of us...  yes its hard to believe it will be 60F here in Wantage NJ near 2P and possibly convective rain mixing with or changing to wet snow 15 hours later at 5A.   That's what I'll be looking for tomorrow morning if modeling continues similar on the 18z and 00z/21 cycles. 

[SACRUS]

up to 54 here 

slow to clear

 

[brooklynwx99]

the system around the end of the month is probably our next legitimate threat. there is relatively high confidence on there being both a vigorous S/W moving through the Plains as well as a strong 50/50 in place to establish confluence. the -NAO itself isn't established, so the longevity of the 50/50 is a bit tenuous, but it may be very strong and do the job. this might be a NAO phase change event, which does lend itself to more dynamic solutions

multiple members of the GEFS and GEPS end up redeveloping a strong SLP off the coast. it's the best synoptic setup we've had in a while (not saying much), and it's approaching the 7 day barrier, so it's worth monitoring IMO

[donsutherland1]

40 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@donsutherland1 Turns out MJO phase 8 isn’t as cold on the composites in March as it is in Dec, Jan, Feb…so even if it gets there, it’s not going to live up to the hype

Yes, that’s correct about phase 8. 

[winterwx21]

I think we still need to watch saturday night. Models have most of the precip missing us to the south, but it's a rare time this winter in which it's actually cold enough for snow if we can get some precip in here. 12z CMC and UKMET do get a little light snow in here. Euro misses to the south but would only need a slight bump north to give us some snow. It would be a light event, but I'll take anything I can get in this pathetic winter. 

[EastonSN+]

3 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

By comparison here is the GEFS. Notice that having a weaker RNA makes a big difference?

The Blocking is further south here, however it does not matter due to the fact that the RNA is weaker. 

I pointed out before that the RNA and NAO are flexing at the same time for 2 years now. 

WEAKER RNA/NAO combination works better than a stronger NAO/RNA.

IMO the LA NINA is Strongly coupled and driving this RNA. 

We may break the lowest snowfall record is the RNA does not relent. Still, one should not look at this year as more hopeless than 97/98 01/02, for those years flukes their way to snowfall. We have just not been able to do so this year as of yet.

 

 

GEFS just strengthened the RNA and hence now links the SER to the NAO. Bad movement. RNA has been relentless, however great west coast winter!

[winterwx21]

62 degrees here right now. Beautiful afternoon. I'm going outside with a t-shirt on right now. Amazing how often I've been able to do that this winter. 

[Stormlover74]

17 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I think we still need to watch saturday night. Models have most of the precip missing us to the south, but it's a rare time this winter in which it's actually cold enough for snow if we can get some precip in here. 12z CMC and UKMET do get a little light snow in here. Euro misses to the south but would only need a slight bump north to give us some snow. It would be a light event, but I'll take anything I can get in this pathetic winter. 

It's amazing how we keep getting these 36 hour cold snaps that arrive on Friday and are gone by Sunday 

[snowman19]

GEFS just strengthened the RNA and hence now links the SER to the NAO. Bad movement. RNA has been relentless, however great west coast winter!

The EURO strengthened the -PNA big time going into early March at 12z. It has snow into the higher elevations of Baja. This is nuts, the 534 line is into Mexico https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023022012&fh=240&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

[EastonSN+]

19 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The EURO strengthened the -PNA big time going into early March at 12z. It has snow into the higher elevations of Baja. This is nuts, the 534 line is into Mexico https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023022012&fh=240&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

This is a truly historic winter for the west. We are paying the price for it but good for them.

[psv88]

63 now

[Winterweatherlover]

3 hours ago, wdrag said:

Just a little patience for all of us...  yes its hard to believe it will be 60F here in Wantage NJ near 2P and possibly convective rain mixing with or changing to wet snow 15 hours later at 5A.   That's what I'll be looking for tomorrow morning if modeling continues similar on the 18z and 00z/21 cycles. 

As I expected 18z NAM def backed off the snow closer to the city, however does look really nice for mid Hudson valley region on 18z NAM. 
 

Now would need to see if rgem

comes on board with the juicier solution. 

[wdrag]

So you have the models to follow. It's yours.  

I think this is an elevation dependent and that participants above 1000 feet Poconos, northern part of Sussex County east and northeast will see slight untreated pavement acc with up to 1-1.5" on grass. Further n in se NYS through CT and Mass, as you see it modeled...take the conservative approach but numbers are larger.

I look at 2m temps of the 3K NAM and HRRR to help determine where it can stick during pcpn.  At night 32.5F for pavement, lower temps during the daylight 2hrs after sunrise. At my house in Wantage NJ where it hit 59F at 3P, and now down to 55, am thinking T-0.1 slime acc on some untreated pavement (740' MSL) and maybe 0.2-0.4 on grass with the rain changing to wet snow at times beginning 1A-3A and most of the snow damage, whatever it is done by 8A.  The max band may shift from where we see it modeled so obviously, can be variations.  For those who like snow in the nw-ne suburbs, might be worth getting up at 3-4A to reacquaint with snowflakes.  After 8A, I think accums may be difficult.  My last on this today. 

[donsutherland1]

Maybe a little hope on the ECMWF weeklies?

The following week is coldest with anomalies between 0°C and 1.0°C below normal. Of course, by then normal highs are around 49° with normal lows around 35°.

[vegan_edible]

i cant believe we just sat through this crap-show of a winter, its like we've collectively gone through the 7 stages of grief and loss. i think we've hit acceptance? next year folks

[EastonSN+]

11 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Maybe a little hope on the ECMWF weeklies?

The following week is coldest with anomalies between 0°C and 1.0°C below normal. Of course, by then normal highs are around 49° with normal lows around 35°.

Thanks Don

Think I am giving up on this year. That RNA being this strong has ruined our NAO, caused it to link up with the SER. We need to clean out the La Nina I believe.

 

[Allsnow]

Today was beautiful…more please 

[Allsnow]

Wow. Msp is having a winter 

19-25 forecasted 

[Allsnow]

9 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Wow. Msp is having a winter 

19-25 forecasted 

 

[Brian5671]

13 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Wow. Msp is having a winter 

19-25 forecasted 

That's got to be a top 5 storm up there- they usually don't get monsters like that...looks like a long duration event.

[NorthShoreWx]

It's 50⁰ in Fryeburg Maine and snowing at the base of the Wildcat Mountain ski area. 

Elevation FTW.

[LoboLeader1]

High of 62 here today, no complaints here.

[the_other_guy]

2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

This is a truly historic winter for the west. We are paying the price for it but good for them.

Just west of Denver.

Close to 60 in Denver. 
 

High elevation has done well after many years of BN. 

 

The narrative that our historic season is somehow counterbalanced by their snow is a falsehood.

Our historically warm winter is due to a bad pattern brutally enhanced by rapid warming of our local climate over last 30 years

[donsutherland1]

During a sun-filled afternoon, temperatures reached the lower 60s in much of the region. Tomorrow will be mainly cloudy and cooler. Some showers are possible.

Temperatures will run generally above to much above normal through the much of the remainder of February. Nevertheless, a brief cool shot could afford an opportunity for a snowfall in the Mid-Atlantic region during the February 23-25 timeframe. More than likely, any snowfall would be modest. A snowfall is not a guaranteed outcome. No severe shots of cold appear likely through February.

Among the extended range scenarios on the table is a late February-early March 2002-type outcome. Under such a scenario, cold air would flood into the Plains States, but persistent southeast ridging would keep most of the cold away from the northeastern and Mid-Atlantic United States.

During February 28-March 5, 2002 high temperatures in the New York City area generally reached the lower to middle 40s with low temperatures in the 20s at night. At the height of the cold, one night saw the temperature fall into the upper teens. By March 7, the cold was gone and readings returned to much above normal levels.

The latest ECMWF weekly forecast suggests that the second week of March could see near normal readings. Uncertainty remains high.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around February 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.56°C. La Niña conditions fading and they should evolve to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring.

The SOI was +10.90 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.886 today.

On February 18 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.998 (RMM). The February 17-adjusted amplitude was 2.123 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 41.2° (5.3° above normal).

 

 

[EastonSN+]

23 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Just west of Denver.

Close to 60 in Denver. 
 

High elevation has done well after many years of BN. 

 

The narrative that our historic season is somehow counterbalanced by their snow is a falsehood.

Our historically warm winter is due to a bad pattern brutally enhanced by rapid warming of our local climate over last 30 years

I disagree but we can agree to disagree at this point.

[tmagan]

48 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Wow. Msp is having a winter 

19-25 forecasted 

An all-time snow season is probably out of reach, but they may have a top-five all time snow year. By the way, you might think they have had a brutally cold winter. Actually January mean temperatures were well above normal, and February as well, up to this point, has been well above normal.

[EastonSN+]

5 minutes ago, tmagan said:

An all-time snow season is probably out of reach, but they may have a top-five all time snow year. By the way, you might think they have had a brutally cold winter. Actually January mean temperatures were well above normal, and February as well, up to this point, has been well above normal.

Yup. Watched TWC and they showed that although they were well above average in snowfall, the trough was actually west of them.

[SnoSki14]

32 minutes ago, LoboLeader1 said:

High of 62 here today, no complaints here.

It's scary how easily we're putting up 60+ temps in February. 

That's like seeing multiple 90s by mid April.