February 2023

[LibertyBell]

19 minutes ago, tmagan said:

I do not believe dew point temperatures were taken back then. If they were, though, they didn't keep records of it.

Sounds like very tropical air, but still it's hard to believe a 91-87 split with over half an inch of rain lol.

It would be interesting to see the weather maps of that day.

Do you know if they measured relative humidity back then?  Perhaps the dew points can be calculated with that?

 

[tmagan]

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Sounds like very tropical air, but still it's hard to believe a 91-87 split with over half an inch of rain lol.

It would be interesting to see the weather maps of that day.

Do you know if they measured relative humidity back then?  Perhaps the dew points can be calculated with that?

 

You will then need the 'wet bulb temperature' (and associated 'depression'). I don't think they calculated the wet bulb temperature back then.

[Brasiluvsnow]

5 hours ago, MJO812 said:

I'm declaring winter over

 

Goodnight

Ant, the phrase " we'll get em next year " NEVER had more meaning as I am right there with you brother. There have been other bad winters but IMO none of those came close to this one especially when we began with such high hopes and expectations = remember in early and mid December we were all talking about a white Christmas ? Seems like a lifetime ago

[tmagan]

50 of the last 54 days have had above normal mean temperatures at Central Park. Only thing surprising about it? It is not surprising anymore.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

7 hours ago, MJO812 said:

I'm declaring winter over

 

Goodnight

You can’t declare something over if it never started.

[Big Jims Videos]

Thursday looks to have an insane temp gradient across pa/NJ more resembling an April day. 

[gravitylover]

I dunno, I see snow in my p&c a few times over the next week. 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging     39degs.(32/46) or +1.

Month to date is       41.8[+6.9].          Should be      41.0[+5.2] by the 28th.

Reached 48 here yesterday at midnight.

Today:   55-58, wind w. to n., m. cloudy, rain overnight, 43 tomorrow AM.      

47*(85%RH) here at 6am.     45* at 7am.      50* at 11:00am.       55* at 2pm.       57* at 2:15pm.      59* at 2:30pm.      60* at 2:45pm.       62* at 4pm.      62* at 5pm{since 3pm really}      59* at 6am.         56* at 8pm.

[Rtd208]

6 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said:

Thursday looks to have an insane temp gradient across pa/NJ more resembling an April day. 

The temp gradiant is going to be fun to watch to see where the dividing line sets up.

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Ant, the phrase " we'll get em next year " NEVER had more meaning as I am right there with you brother. There have been other bad winters but IMO none of those came close to this one especially when we began with such high hopes and expectations = remember in early and mid December we were all talking about a white Christmas ? Seems like a lifetime ago

That storm had potential but it quickly turned into a cutter.

[SACRUS]

Records:  Record cold 8 years ago in 2015, remember that well as heat was out that day.

Highs:

LGA: 70 (2018)
EWR: 70 (1939)
NYC: 69 (1939)

 

Lows:

EWR: 1 (2015)
NYC: 2 (2015)
LGA: 3 (2015)

Historical:

1805 - The Potomac River was opened after being closed by ice for a period of two months. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

1898 - Eastern Wisconsin experienced their biggest snowstorm of record. Racine received thirty inches, and drifts around Milwaukee measured fifteen feet high. (David Ludlum)

1912: A strong area of low pressure produced snow in Amarillo and high winds to Austin, Texas. In the warm sector of the low, severe storms developed and produced an estimated F3 tornado in Shreveport, Louisiana. The tornado killed nine people and injured 50 others. The tornado passed near Centenary College, where windows were damaged, and the grandstand at the ballpark was partially damaged. In addition, significant damage occurred in the Freewater section, where an estimated 75 to 100 houses were demolished.  

1912: During the 20th and 21st, a severe snowstorm attended by high winds lasting from 34 to 30 hours swept over Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. The amount of snow that fell in this storm was not only large, but it drifted severely. In many places, snowbanks 5 feet and higher were formed, railroad cuts were filled, highways in many places were impassable, electric service wires of all kinds were temporarily put out of commission, all trade and traffic generally demoralized. This snowstorm was part of a general disturbance that developed over the southwest on the 20th and moved northeastward over the Central and Eastern States, increasing in strength during the 21st and 22nd, and which proved to be one of the most severe and most extensive general disturbances that have passed over this section of the country for several years past. Besides the heavy snow in the northern part of the storm, heavy rains, gales, and destructive thunderstorms attended over most of the southern and eastern portions. Wind velocities of 50 to 75 miles per hour were reported at many places during the passage of this storm. Some wind blew steadily at high velocities for several hours. 

1953 - A snowstorm in Nebraska, South Dakota, Iowa and Minnesota produced drifts ten feet high which derailed trains. (David Ludlum)

1987 - A storm system over Arizona spread heavy snow from the Southern Rockies into the Southern Plains Region. Thunderstorms in central Texas produced golf ball size hail about the same time north central Texas was being blanketed with up to 8 inches of snow, closing many schools. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Snow and strong northerly winds ushered arctic air into the Great Lakes Region. The temperature at Sault Ste Marie MI plunged from 30 degrees at 5 AM to one below zero by 3 PM, with a wind chill reading of 40 degrees below zero. Five cities in Florida reported record high temperatures for the date. The afternoon high of 90 degrees at Lakeland was just a degree shy of their February record. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Thunderstorms developing during the early afternoon produced severe weather from eastern Texas to Alabama and northwest Florida. Thunderstorms spawned a dozen tornadoes during the afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms also produced 90 mph winds around Vicksburg MS, and 100 mph winds around Jackson MS. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Heavy snow spread into southwestern Kansas and the panhandle region of Oklahoma and Texas. Heavier snowfall totals included 12 inches at Boise City OK, 11 inches at Liberal KS, and 10 inches at Spearman TX. Blowing and drifting snow closed roads in the Oklahoma panhandle. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1995: The temperature at the Civic Center in Los Angeles, California, soared to 95 degrees, the highest ever recorded at the location during February.

 

2004: A nor'easter brought heavy snow and strong winds to Nova Scotia and Prince Edwards Island from February 17th through 20th, 2004. The Maritimers called this storm White Juan, a hurricane disguised as a blizzard. Halifax, Yarmouth, and Charlottetown broke all-time 24-hour snowfall records, receiving about 3 feet of snow. The 34.8 inches of snow on February 19th nearly doubled its previous record for a single day for Halifax. 

[donsutherland1]

New York City's snow season futility rankings through February 19th:

[EastonSN+]

20 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

That storm had potential but it quickly turned into a cutter.

It was the third wave that held all the potential not the Cutter. The cutter was record intensity which killed the third wave.

As for this block, if the RNA is too strong we strike out and it links with the SE ridge. We need it to weaken.

At least 01/02 and 97/98 lucked into one event. This may not. We shall see. 

[wdrag]

Impressive 12z run of the NAM... we'll see if it holds.  Definitely isolated thunder hail, SW/RW late Tuesday after morning snow/rain dividing line just nw of NYC.

[donsutherland1]

6 hours ago, tmagan said:

Something I saw recently caught my attention, Central Park's highest low temperature ever was on July 2, 1903 at 87 degrees. The high that day was 91 degrees. There was 0.53" of rain that day. I do not believe hourly data was available back then. It seems almost inconceivable that there could be over a half inch of rain in a day (not necessarily all at once) and not have the low temperature fall below 87 degrees. 

That minimum temperature is an error. It seems that some of the data in Xmacis was messed up following an outage. The record high minimum temperature for July 2 is 82 in 1901. 

[SACRUS]

Could see some sun as clearing / breaks in the clouds approaching EPA.  Perhaps some 60 degree readings today in the warmer spots.

 

 

[CIK62]

19 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

That minimum temperature is an error. It seems that some of the data in Xmacis was messed up following an outage. The record high minimum temperature for July 2 is 82 in 1901. 

The Low was 79 that day, not 87.

While we are on a topic like this---has anyone ever checked the Governor's Island T Data that predates CPK by about 45 years.     UncleW posted it once and I remember seeing a July monthly average that beat our current hottest  July by quite a bit---and wondered if it was accurate and could be checked against Philadelphia or Boston or some college collected data of the time.

[EastonSN+]

So THIS is the point in time that is critical.

As Don alluded to snowfall drops as the RNA goes below 1. This is still a strong RNA.

The difference between a 10/11 and all other years where the block helped us snow as compared to the years it did not is either the RNA was weaker allowing for the PV to get squeezed underneath the block (flatter trough out west) OR the deep RNA was transitioning to weak or neutral. The look below would fail in 1920, 1960, likely anytime in post 1900 history.

Now, what happens after this frame is key. Does the RNA rise? If so as the block continues to migrate west we have an opportunity. If the block just merges with the -EPO then the cold will still be trapped west and we ridge and fail.

Long story short. Blocking can be historic if we have a -1 or transitioning RNA, or become useless if the RNA is too deep. The SER/NAO linkage is NOT a driver, but rather a wave affect from the deep trough out west. 

Side note. The GEFS looks better than the EPS even though the GEFS never goes back to 8 while the EPS does.

[EastonSN+]

By comparison here is the GEFS. Notice that having a weaker RNA makes a big difference?

The Blocking is further south here, however it does not matter due to the fact that the RNA is weaker. 

I pointed out before that the RNA and NAO are flexing at the same time for 2 years now. 

WEAKER RNA/NAO combination works better than a stronger NAO/RNA.

IMO the LA NINA is Strongly coupled and driving this RNA. 

We may break the lowest snowfall record is the RNA does not relent. Still, one should not look at this year as more hopeless than 97/98 01/02, for those years flukes their way to snowfall. We have just not been able to do so this year as of yet.

 

 

[donsutherland1]

33 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

The Low was 79 that day, not 87.

While we are on a topic like this---has anyone ever checked the Governor's Island T Data that predates CPK by about 45 years.     UncleW posted it once and I remember seeing a July monthly average that beat our current hottest  July by quite a bit---and wondered if it was accurate and could be checked against Philadelphia or Boston or some college collected data of the time.

UncleW might know more. However, at that time only a limited number of observations were made. Thus, a late night or predawn low temperature might not have been observed.

[Winterweatherlover]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Impressive 12z run of the NAM... we'll see if it holds.  Definitely isolated thunder hail, SW/RW late Tuesday after morning snow/rain dividing line just nw of NYC.

NAM likely overdone as RGEM looks unimpressive. Based on this winter I know which model I’d bet on. I guess we’ll see outside our windows tomorrow. 

[Dark Star]

14 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Other places that stick out into the ocean get more snow in March than NYC or western LI does, that we do know is related to UHI....the more urbanization, the harder it is for snow to stick late in the season

I was speaking in general terms, just not March or April...

[JustinRP37]

Skiing today with my son at Thunder Ridge. I have never seen such a sad ski season before in all my years of skiing. Might have to use some miles and head to Colorado. This is ridiculous. I feel so bad for these areas especially since the covid shortened season of 19-20. 

[EastonSN+]

13 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Skiing today with my son at Thunder Ridge. I have never seen such a sad ski season before in all my years of skiing. Might have to use some miles and head to Colorado. This is ridiculous. I feel so bad for these areas especially since the covid shortened season of 19-20. 

Yeah any year that Baja Mexico beats us in snowfall and cold.....

[wdrag]

1 hour ago, Winterweatherlover said:

NAM likely overdone as RGEM looks unimpressive. Based on this winter I know which model I’d bet on. I guess we’ll see outside our windows tomorrow. 

Maybe so? but am pretty sure a stripe of 1+" tomorrow morning on the northern edge of qpf coming this eve from sw PA (already on radar as rain s of PIT). 12z GFS not far behind now, as are 12z/20 WRF ARW and WRF NSSL modeling. (my chagrin for not checking the 00z modeling of these two which also had it).  So, tomorrow morning we'll know if indeed the NAM and recent two cycles of WRF ARW and WRF NSSL are too robust. and also the the 12z GFS.  12z/20 SPC HREF has spotty elevation dependent 1"+.  We may kind of know by the 18z RGEM (4P), whether it buys in more fully or fades as you think.  NAM probably feeding off its banding signal that last for 3 hours as it travels newd along I84 06z-12z.  

 

 

56 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Skiing today with my son at Thunder Ridge. I have never seen such a sad ski season before in all my years of skiing. Might have to use some miles and head to Colorado. This is ridiculous. I feel so bad for these areas especially since the covid shortened season of 19-20. 

Here is the SPC HREF for tomorrows's wet snow acc, elevation dependent and mostly untreated surfaces. Watch the convective release late day. Interesting?

[MJO812]

Need the NAO to do the job

[Franklin0529]

U just declared winter over lol. Don't do it to yourself.  I mean I'm pulling for atleast one sizeable storm but not counting on it.  There is another storm right behind this one on the 1st. Hopefully cash in on one 

[snowman19]

[Winterweatherlover]

35 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Need the NAO to do the job

12z CMC has a cutter. 

[Winterweatherlover]

39 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Maybe so? but am pretty sure a stripe of 1+" tomorrow morning on the northern edge of qpf coming this eve from sw PA (already on radar as rain s of PIT). 12z GFS not far behind now, as are 12z/20 WRF ARW and WRF NSSL modeling. (my chagrin for not checking the 00z modeling of these two which also had it).  So, tomorrow morning we'll know if indeed the NAM and recent two cycles of WRF ARW and WRF NSSL are too robust. and also the the 12z GFS.  12z/20 SPC HREF has spotty elevation dependent 1"+.  We may kind of know by the 18z RGEM (4P), whether it buys in more fully or fades as you think.  NAM probably feeding off its banding signal that last for 3 hours as it travels newd along I84 06z-12z.  

 

 

 

I mean I hope you are right and at least some parts of the subforum can see an inch of snow tomorrow but given how the winter has gone and how good the RGEM has generally been it's hard to bet against it unless it caves.  

 

The NAM has over an inch of snow almost to the bronx border, I really don't see that happening as awesome as it would be.