February 2023

[donsutherland1]

31 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes the outcome from that map looks closer to normal for us, which probably means the last few days of February would still be above normal and the cold if it really comes would get here March 1st.

 

The CFSv2 is warm throughout 4 weeks. I am not sold on the CFSv2 idea, but could see a briefly cooler start to March (not severely cold) with a rebound in temperatures during the second week of the month. That's the scenario that is beginning to show up on the extended range of the EPS. It's also the scenario that played out in late February-early March 2002.

Below are the CFSv2 maps:

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging     42degs.(35/49) or +5.

Month to date is      42.1[+7.3].         Should be 42.0[+6.6] by the 26th.

Reached 59 here yesterday.

Today:   40-43, wind w., p. sunny, 37 tomorrow AM.

29*(57%RH) here at 6am{32 at midnight}       28* at 7am.       32* at 11am.         35* at Noon.      40* at 2:30pm.      Reached  44* at 3:30pm.       40* at 8pm.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

The CFSv2 is warm throughout 4 weeks. I am not sold on the CFSv2 idea, but could see a briefly cooler start to March (not severely cold) with a rebound in temperatures during the second week of the month. That's the scenario that is beginning to show up on the extended range of the EPS. It's also the scenario that played out in late February-early March 2002.

Below are the CFSv2 maps:

I remember seeing my crocuses bloom on February 26, 2002, that was the earliest they have ever come out.

 

[snowman19]

The CFSv2 is warm throughout 4 weeks. I am not sold on the CFSv2 idea, but could see a briefly cooler start to March (not severely cold) with a rebound in temperatures during the second week of the month. That's the scenario that is beginning to show up on the extended range of the EPS. It's also the scenario that played out in late February-early March 2002.
Below are the CFSv2 maps:

The CFS isn’t alone. All 3 ensembles (EPS, GEFS, GEPS) have a very strong -PNA and massive SE ridge hook up with the -NAO by day 11 and it’s lights out. I think this one may be over

[donsutherland1]

12 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

This will be through March and April?

No. It's only through February 17th. In the final rankings, excluding this winter, 2001-2002 ranked 1st and 1931-1932 ranked 2nd.

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The CFS isn’t alone. All 3 ensembles (EPS, GEFS, GEPS) have a very strong -PNA and massive SE ridge hook up with the -NAO by day 11 and it’s lights out. I think this one may be over

They are talking about agricultural concerns in coastal California and in the valleys for historic late season freezes.

[SACRUS]

Down to 25 (coldest in 2 weeks or since the arctic 32 hour blast).  Now 33 after some sleet/rain mix during the rush hour friday.

 

[SACRUS]

10:47 minutes of day light or about equivalent to October 23rd.   (gaining about 2.3 mins each day now).

 

[SACRUS]

Records

1979 had many records that year in Feb.

 

Highs:

EWR: 71 (2011)
NYC: 68 (1981)
LGA: 67 (2011)

Lows:

EWR: -1 (1979)
LGA: 0 (1979)
NYC: 0 (1979)

 

Historical:

 

1899 - While much of the central and eastern U.S. was recovering from the most severe cold wave of modern history, the temperature at San Francisco soared to 80 degrees to establish a record for month of February. (David Ludlum)

1959 - Some of the higher elevations of California were in the midst of a five day storm which produced 189 inches of snow, a single storm record for North America. (13th-19th) (David Ludlum)

1987 - A small but intense low pressure system combined with northerly upslope winds to produce eight inches of snow in five hours at Meeteetsie WY, located southeast of Cody. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thunderstorms soaked the Central Gulf Coast Region with heavy rain. Totals in southern Louisiana ranged up to 8.50 inches near the town of Ridge, with 6.55 inches at Plaguemine. Thunderstorms in northern Florida drenched Apalachicola with 5.41 inches of rain in 24 hours, and produced wind gusts to 75 mph at Mayo. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Low pressure off the coast of North Carolina brought freezing rain and heavy snow to Virginia and the Carolinas. Snowfall totals in Virginia ranged up to 18 inches at Franklin. Freezing rain reached a thickness of two inches around Charlotte NC. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - An intense but slow moving Pacific storm worked its way across Utah over a two day period. The storm blanketed the valleys with 4 to 12 inches of snow, and produced up to 42 inches of snow in the mountains. Heavy snow also fell across northern Arizona. Williams received 22 inches of snow, and 12 inches was reported along the south rim of the Grand Canyon. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1992: A thunderstorm spawned a powerful F4 tornado for so far north for the time of the year in southern Van Wert County in Ohio. The tornado touched down just west of US Route 127 and traveled northeastward for about 3 miles. One house was completely leveled, and nine others experienced severe damage. Six people were injured. 

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

No. It's only through February 17th. In the final rankings, excluding this winter, 2001-2002 ranked 1st and 1931-1932 ranked 2nd.

If the snow event on the EURO and GFS come to fruition, and March does indeed end up being well above average temps, this year will be as close to a copy of 01/02 as you can get.

Kind of amazing really.

[SnowGoose69]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

The CFS isn’t alone. All 3 ensembles (EPS, GEFS, GEPS) have a very strong -PNA and massive SE ridge hook up with the -NAO by day 11 and it’s lights out. I think this one may be over

 

You won't get the NAO/SE ridge connection with shorter wavelengths...this is why in the last few years we've often had the most effective NAO effect in Mar/Apr

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

They are talking about agricultural concerns in coastal California and in the valleys for historic late season freezes.

Hopefully next year the opposite happens and we get that trough on the east coast and we get the winter the west had. 

 

[LibertyBell]

40 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Hopefully next year the opposite happens and we get that trough on the east coast and we get the winter the west had. 

 

I mean I don't really hate what they had this year, they really have been in a major drought there for years.  It's good not to get wild fires.  They need that a lot more than we do, it's tough being in a situation where one part of the country has to be in megadrought conditions for the other part of the country to get a good winter.

 

[LibertyBell]

43 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

You won't get the NAO/SE ridge connection with shorter wavelengths...this is why in the last few years we've often had the most effective NAO effect in Mar/Apr

It's the 1950s scenario.

March was the snowy month for that entire decade.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

Records

1979 had many records that year in Feb.

 

Highs:

EWR: 71 (2011)
NYC: 68 (1981)
LGA: 67 (2011)

Lows:

EWR: -1 (1979)
LGA: 0 (1979)
NYC: 0 (1979)

 

Historical:

 

1899 - While much of the central and eastern U.S. was recovering from the most severe cold wave of modern history, the temperature at San Francisco soared to 80 degrees to establish a record for month of February. (David Ludlum)

1959 - Some of the higher elevations of California were in the midst of a five day storm which produced 189 inches of snow, a single storm record for North America. (13th-19th) (David Ludlum)

1987 - A small but intense low pressure system combined with northerly upslope winds to produce eight inches of snow in five hours at Meeteetsie WY, located southeast of Cody. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thunderstorms soaked the Central Gulf Coast Region with heavy rain. Totals in southern Louisiana ranged up to 8.50 inches near the town of Ridge, with 6.55 inches at Plaguemine. Thunderstorms in northern Florida drenched Apalachicola with 5.41 inches of rain in 24 hours, and produced wind gusts to 75 mph at Mayo. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Low pressure off the coast of North Carolina brought freezing rain and heavy snow to Virginia and the Carolinas. Snowfall totals in Virginia ranged up to 18 inches at Franklin. Freezing rain reached a thickness of two inches around Charlotte NC. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - An intense but slow moving Pacific storm worked its way across Utah over a two day period. The storm blanketed the valleys with 4 to 12 inches of snow, and produced up to 42 inches of snow in the mountains. Heavy snow also fell across northern Arizona. Williams received 22 inches of snow, and 12 inches was reported along the south rim of the Grand Canyon. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1992: A thunderstorm spawned a powerful F4 tornado for so far north for the time of the year in southern Van Wert County in Ohio. The tornado touched down just west of US Route 127 and traveled northeastward for about 3 miles. One house was completely leveled, and nine others experienced severe damage. Six people were injured. 

wow to see 71 on this date in 2011!

also:

1989 - Low pressure off the coast of North Carolina brought freezing rain and heavy snow to Virginia and the Carolinas. Snowfall totals in Virginia ranged up to 18 inches at Franklin. Freezing rain reached a thickness of two inches around Charlotte NC. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

This wasn't the February 1989 storm that dropped almost 20" in Atlantic City was it?  Our big virga storm lol

 

[jm1220]

4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

New York City's snow season futility rankings through February 17th:

That’s just in your face depressing. 

[SACRUS]

54 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

wow to see 71 on this date in 2011!

also:

1989 - Low pressure off the coast of North Carolina brought freezing rain and heavy snow to Virginia and the Carolinas. Snowfall totals in Virginia ranged up to 18 inches at Franklin. Freezing rain reached a thickness of two inches around Charlotte NC. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

This wasn't the February 1989 storm that dropped almost 20" in Atlantic City was it?  Our big virga storm lol

 

I believe that was in '87

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Hopefully next year the opposite happens and we get that trough on the east coast and we get the winter the west had. 

 

We’ve been due for regression given the bonanza winters we’ve had, but until that massive W PAC warm pool goes away or is outdone by something else like a solid Nino, it will keep reinforcing this winter pattern. Nino/Nina isn’t just about what happens in the eastern Pacific, the counterpart in the western Pacific is just as important. 

The Atlantic warm pool is a double edged sword and I can see actually helping us when we have a Nino by maybe helping nudge an otherwise suppressed storm north 75-100 miles. This year with the background Nina state it’s obviously a disaster. But in a Nino state I can see it being helpful. 

[EastonSN+]

I like to try to take away a lesson from each season.

This year I learned that blocking is useless when the RNA is strong. Originally I thought blocking can overcome, however in the end it makes sense that if the RNA is too deep, blocking will fail.

[jm1220]

Something I’m curious about is why the NAO blocks keep going south based over the last few winters. That obviously does us no good either since we want the 50-50 low south of the block to create confluence and force the storm tracks underneath us. 

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

We’ve been due for regression given the bonanza winters we’ve had, but until that massive W PAC warm pool goes away or is outdone by something else like a solid Nino, it will keep reinforcing this winter pattern. Nino/Nina isn’t just about what happens in the eastern Pacific, the counterpart in the western Pacific is just as important. 

The Atlantic warm pool is a double edged sword and I can see actually helping us when we have a Nino by maybe helping nudge an otherwise suppressed storm north 75-100 miles. This year with the background Nina state it’s obviously a disaster. But in a Nino state I can see it being helpful. 

I agree.

I lived through the 80s and 90s so to me this is normal while 00 through 18 was the outlier.

We get a 20/21 winter every 2 to 4 years while the rest are warm and snowless.

IF IF the warmer waters are static, then an 80s repeat can be historically snowy.

 

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I like to try to take away a lesson from each season.

This year I learned that blocking is useless when the RNA is strong. Originally I thought blocking can overcome, however in the end it makes sense that if the RNA is too deep, blocking will fail.

The block in December was in a bad place and linked up with the SE ridge which is obviously game over for us. We don’t want these NAO blocks to keep trending south. 

[EastonSN+]

Just now, jm1220 said:

Something I’m curious about is why the NAO blocks keep going south based over the last few winters. That obviously does us no good either since we want the 50-50 low south of the block to create confluence and force the storm tracks underneath us. 

I don't think it's abnormal. We did have a classic block recently two year ago.

I raised this earlier and have not received a response yet, however I think the south based blocks may be RNA driven and "bootleg". 

If you look at the PNA and NAO charts I posted yesterday the RNA and NAO flex at the same time all year. Happened last December as well. I don't know why and if there is a connection, however there has to be a downstream affect. 

Don posted yesterday where large snowfalls decrease when the RNA drops below -1.

I would be more concerned if 2021 blocking did not happen.

 

 

[EastonSN+]

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The block in December was in a bad place and linked up with the SE ridge which is obviously game over for us. We don’t want these NAO blocks to keep trending south. 

I really think the south based blocks are bootleg and not classic blocking. Too much correlation between deep RNA followed by the NAO.

[EastonSN+]

I would love to find out the reasoning behind the above. The NAO follows the PNA by a couple days. Can this really be coincidence? Can't be. The NAO follows the RNA like a puppy dog 

 

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

When there is a strong PAC signal (strong -PNA, ++EPO, strong Niña, strong Nino) it will overwhelm the Atlantic because our weather is moving west-east

Right, however why has it been all year that the NAO appears a couple days following the RNA? Last December too. And when that happens we fail. There HAS to be a connection it cannot be random.

[LibertyBell]

21 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

I believe that was in '87

Thought it was in the La Nina winter of 88-89 in February 1989 there was  a Norfolk to Atlantic City snowstorm, it was 19" in ACY and was supposed to be 6-8 inches up here but we just got virga.  Another 6-8 inch bust the following December with rain and thunderstorms instead of snow lol.  We busted from two different directions in the same calendar year in two different winters!

 

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I don't think it's abnormal. We did have a classic block recently two year ago.

I raised this earlier and have not received a response yet, however I think the south based blocks may be RNA driven and "bootleg". 

If you look at the PNA and NAO charts I posted yesterday the RNA and NAO flex at the same time all year. Happened last December as well. I don't know why and if there is a connection, however there has to be a downstream affect. 

Don posted yesterday where large snowfalls decrease when the RNA drops below -1.

I would be more concerned if 2021 blocking did not happen.

 

 

It's definitely abnormal and is happening for the same reason the SE Ridge has been migrating north and sending the warmest weather into New England in the summer.

You really didn't hear about these south based blocks before a few years ago.

 

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

When there is a strong PAC signal (strong -PNA, ++EPO, strong Niña, strong Nino) it will overwhelm the Atlantic because our weather is moving west-east

But how come cold weather doesn't move west to east

You know what I mean lol, it's frustrating to see it so cold in the west and that doesn't move west to east but the rain does lol

 

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Right, however why has it been all year that the NAO appears a couple days following the RNA? Last December too. And when that happens we fail. There HAS to be a connection it cannot be random.

I think the weather actually moves southwest to northeast, so we get input from the southeast ridge and that is what screws us.

In the case of when there is fast Pacific flow and it does move due west to due east we are screwed because of our low (no) elevation.

You really want to have both latitude and altitude in these kinds of patterns.