February 2023

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

not sure if we're going to get a full wall-to-wall cold winter for a while, but Feb 2021 had KNYC receive almost 30" of snow, and there was highly anomalous cold over much of the country

What a great month that was-the mid December MECS also added to the fun....

[psv88]

72 now 

[bluewave]

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

not sure if we're going to get a full wall-to-wall cold winter for a while, but Feb 2021 had KNYC receive almost 30" of snow, and there was highly anomalous cold over much of the country

Yeah, that was a great winter month. Newark did very well with snowfall since the storm tracks were so tucked in. South based blocking to the east of New England forced the storm track further west. If December was a little cooler and we had a colder Christmas storm track, then Newark could have had a colder than average winter with over 50”. 
 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	Season
Mean	T	1.3	3.3	4.3	7.6	2.7	T	18.6
2022-2023	0.0	T	0.1	T	0.3	M	M	0.4
2021-2022	0.0	0.1	0.1	14.6	2.3	0.8	0.0	17.9
2020-2021	T	0.0	11.9	3.2	30.6	T	0.0	45.7
2019-2020	0.0	T	4.2	2.7	T	T	T	6.9
2018-2019	0.0	6.4	T	0.9	4.8	9.9	0.0	22.0

 

[psv88]

Islip hit 70

[EastonSN+]

32 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

not sure if we're going to get a full wall-to-wall cold winter for a while, but Feb 2021 had KNYC receive almost 30" of snow, and there was highly anomalous cold over much of the country

Agreed, I think we will be waiting a few years before our next 13/14, 02/03, 95/96 etc

[Cfa]

Up to 73 now, this is crazy. I’m actually overdressed right now.

First heat index of the year at 72.

[LoboLeader1]

Currently 70 here, tempted to put the snowblower & shovels away till next winter.

[bluewave]

New monthly high of 71° for February at Islip.

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY
1159 AM EST THU FEB 16 2023

...RECORD DAILY AND MONTHLY HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT ISLIP MACARTHUR 
AIRPORT...

A DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 71 WAS SET AT ISLIP MACARTHUR 
AIRPORT IN NY TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 59 SET IN 
2018 AND BREAKS THE MONTHLY RECORD OF 68 SET IN 2022.

RECORDS GO BACK TO THE YEAR 1963 AT THIS CLIMATE STATION.

ALL CLIMATE DATA ARE CONSIDERED PRELIMINARY UNTIL REVIEWED BY THE 
NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION (NCEI).

[Volcanic Winter]

I topped out at 68. Looks to be falling now with precipitation and cloud cover. 

[lee59]

69.5 my high, becoming overcast

[CIK62]

This gives 42degs.(34/51) or a good +4 or +5 for the rest of the month.

 

[dWave]

1 hour ago, Gravity Wave said:

The struggle to reach 70 today just makes the 80 from February 2018 even more impressive. Easily the most incredible temperature event I've personally experienced.

I touched 70 under cloudy skies all day, that might be more impressive than Feb 2018 which was later in the month and under full sunshine all day if I remember right.  It sounds like some places are getting decent sunshine today which must really feel good with 70+. 

It's splitting hairs anyway...warm or more warm

[gravitylover]

Looks like I made it to 65 before the clouds thickened and shut it down. It's awfully nice out right now at 64 with an intermittent Southerly breeze. 

[North and West]

Currently 70 here, tempted to put the snowblower & shovels away till next winter.

I never took mine out.


.

[Stormlover74]

Radar looks decent for some heavy rain shortly

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Stratosphere warming on MR and LR models, takes some time to downwell.. The -NAO should max out March 9-19, 2023. That is our window. 

[Dan76]

38 minutes ago, North and West said:

I never took mine out.


.

Same here...and never checked to see if the plow works.

[winterwx21]

Another warm cutter next week, and then some cold air comes in next friday. We can hope that sets us up for some snow next weekend, as 12z CMC is showing. The models have been wrong every time they've shown snow at this range, so of course we'd have to say this is a longshot.

But my goodness, you'd think something would work out at some point. Incredibly difficult to go an entire winter without 1 event. Whether it's next weekend or sometime in March, I hope we can at least pull off an advisory level event. 

[winterwx21]

51 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Radar looks decent for some heavy rain shortly

It's weakening as it's coming in, so probably only around a tenth of an inch this afternoon. 

[snowman19]

Another warm cutter next week, and then some cold air comes in next friday. We can hope that sets us up for some snow next weekend, as 12z CMC is showing. The models have been wrong every time they've shown snow at this range, so of course we'd have to say this is a longshot.
But my goodness, you'd think something would work out at some point. Incredibly difficult to go an entire winter without 1 event. Whether it's next weekend or sometime in March, I hope we can at least pull off an advisory level event. 

Day 10 op CMC and day 10 op EURO. Sell. Same old pattern in place at that point. No -NAO block, no 50/50 low, huge -PNA dumped into the west, SE ridge, Sell

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Day 10 op CMC and day 10 op EURO. Sell. Same old pattern in place at that point. No -NAO block, no 50/50 low, huge -PNA dumped into the west, SE ridge, Sell

EPS and GEFS have a significant 50/50 low in place

[Roger Smith]

The month is also running very dry at 0.05" for NYC. The record low top ten for February are

_01 __ 0.46 _ 1895

_02 __ 0.55 _ 1901

_03 __ 0.71 _ 2002

_04 __ 0.93 _ 2009

_05 __ 0.94 _ 1892

_06 __ 1.01 _ 1987

_07 __ 1.04 _ 1980

_08 __ 1.13 _ 1968

_09 __ 1.24 _ 1877

_10 __ 1.29 _ 1872

_____________________________________

The lowest total (1st to 16th) before this year was 0.18" in 1892 (0.20" 1912 and 0.21" 1904 close second and third). Today could be the first time 2023 holds the lead (if any rainfall is less than 0.13") -- the first fifteen days were totally dry in 1980 but 0.74" on 16th 1980 ended that month's stay in the top five. (2012 had only 0.16" by 15th but had a more average second half and finished outside the top ten).

Conversely, 1895 and 1968 which made the list were bone dry from 9th (1895) and 4rd (1968) to the 28th (which in 1895 was also end of the month, and that dry spell included March 1st) --they ran up their small totals before those dates, plus the 0.60" that fell on leap year day in 1968. If 1968 had not been a leap year it would have ranked 2nd driest, and 1892 (with 0.09") would be 3rd rather than 4th, 1980 and 1872 were dry on leap year day.

To compare records from tomorrow to end of month, 1892 held on at 0.18" to 18th, 1912 was 0.21" on 19th and 0.22" on 20th (then fell out of the top ten with heavy amounts), leaving 1895 at 0.46" the lowest from 21st to end of month although 1987 was only 0.48" by 22nd, adding 0.50" on 23rd. 

[cardinalland]

warmest February day on record in Bridgeport and New Haven (68F, breaking previous records of 67F at both locations)

[snowman19]

EPS and GEFS have a significant 50/50 low in place

Where’s the west based -NAO block to lock it in place and prevent it from escaping east? Also a ++AO and severely negative PNA

[EastonSN+]

9 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Where’s the west based -NAO block to lock it in place and prevent it from escaping east? Also a ++AO and severely negative PNA

If the depiction occured as shown, the 50/50 would allow for an overrunning event to occur. A west based NAO would allow for a coastal.

 

[Tatamy]

5 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Mine was 

1996 27 inches

2013 22 inches

2006 20.5

2011 18

 

Mine:

1978 30 inches

2016 30 inches

2021 25 inches

1983 18 inches 

[snowman19]

If the depiction occured as shown, the 50/50 would allow for an overrunning event to occur. A west based NAO would allow for a coastal.
 

First, the models have been too strong in the medium/long range with the 50/50 lows, see the last 4 months. Again, what is to stop that 50/50 vortex from simply moving right out into the Atlantic? There is no downstream block to keep it in place. You are talking thread the needle big time, especially given the very positive AO and the very strongly negative PNA. There’s a full latitude trough down to Baja

[EastonSN+]

9 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

First, the models have been too strong in the medium/long range with the 50/50 lows, see the last 4 months. Again, what is to stop that 50/50 vortex from simply moving right out into the Atlantic? There is no downstream block to keep it in place. You are talking thread the needle big time, especially given the very positive AO and the very strongly negative PNA. There’s a full latitude trough down to Baja

The east based NAO would keep in the 50/50 long enough for the overrunning to occur in that screen snip.

East Based NAO = overrunning

West based NAO = coastal/all snow

 

 

[MJO812]

Hopefully the weeklies are right for once 

[snowman19]

The east based NAO would keep in the 50/50 long enough for the overrunning to occur in that screen snip.
East Based NAO = overrunning
West based NAO = coastal/all snow
 
 

We agree to disagree. Just my opinion, the upstream pattern in the PAC is a total train wreck dumpster fire, there’s no arctic blocking (-AO) over the top, an east based NAO isn’t going to do the trick and lock in a 50/50 low and it would have to be timed absolutely perfectly to thread the needle before the low and confluence move away. We all know the SE ridge is going to trend stronger as we get closer in time, that’s a given. I’m skeptical, we’ll see