February 2023

[lee59]

40 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

 

Just another point of view from the NE forum. Like to look at all sides. 

Since the 50 inch snowfall season of 2014-15, and not including this year, Central Park has averaged almost 27 inches of snow. This is just about normal

[EasternLI]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Had to drop in to agree with you on that. The Niña system is still in full effect. Also, I’m not so sure the SSWE is going to be all that effective either. This event is nothing like 2018, it’s a displacement event, adding to the uncertainty and there’s destructive interference from the +QBO and -AAM, serving to delay and convolute everything. If there’s even any tropospheric response it may not happen until the 2nd week of March. This tweet chain does a great job of explaining what’s going on

Yeah, I've been saying it's not really impressive looking.... The latest gfs cross sections suggest this is not making much progress downward. Best to wait until it's underway and then see what models are doing, though. But it just looks uninspiring to me so far. 

[donsutherland1]

Not exactly what one would like to see following a SSW event.

[snowman19]

Yeah, I've been saying it's not really impressive looking.... The latest gfs cross sections suggest this is not making much progress downward. Best to wait until it's underway and then see what models are doing, though. But it just looks uninspiring to me so far. 

You said you weren’t impressed weeks ago despite all the hype and it seems so far that you are going to be correct. This looks like a “top down” event as opposed to the “bottom up” wave forced event of 2018

[EastonSN+]

15 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Not exactly what one would like to see following a SSW event.

Yeah this will come down to getting into phase 8 or not.

[EastonSN+]

4 hours ago, Weather Will said:

Latest WB GEFS extended throws us a Hail Mary but it takes us until early March to get there….

 

 

There goes our spring (no surprise).

[lee59]

This shows numerous cities and snowfall by decade for over 100 years. Looks like some areas of the northeast get more snow now than 100 years ago.

 

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/US-Snowfall-1900-2019-Decade-Decade-Look

 

 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

 

Just another point of view from the NE forum. Like to look at all sides.

There are a few things here. While the ridge out West only dominated the 13-14 and 14-15 winters, it has frequently been a player during other times of the year since then. Think about all the record heat and drought out west. So it continues to be a player in the climate and not just a passing fad. 

The interesting thing about the record SE Ridge or WAR is that it first emerged during the 15-16 super El Niño. December 2015 was the strongest SE Ridge or WAR for a whole month leading to the +13.3 departure.  But since it was an El Niño, off course the SE Ridge eventually faded in January with the historic blizzard. This lingered into February. It has been a factor every winter since 15-16 through this one. Now this doesn’t mean that there won’t be intervals when it relaxes for a time. An El Niño would be an ideal time for this to happen. We just need the El Niño to be able to couple. The WPAC warm pool lead to the more Nina-like pattern during the attempted 18-19 El Niño. 

[lee59]

14 minutes ago, lee59 said:

This show numerous cities and snowfall by decade for over 100 years. Looks like some areas of the northeast get more snow now than 100 years ago.

 

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/US-Snowfall-1900-2019-Decade-Decade-Look

 

 

Interesting conclusion at the end:

Conclusion

This is, I’ll admit, an unscientific survey, but no one (to my knowledge) has attempted to even research the subject in much detail. This is probably because, with the change in measurement techniques over time, it is not possible to conclusively say that any one part of the country has become snowier or less so over the past 120 years.

Christopher C. Burt

[donsutherland1]

Tonight will be mainly cloudy. Some showers are possible, especially south and east of New York City. In the wake of the storm that is passing well to our south and east, much milder air will return to the region tomorrow. Clouds will yield to sunshine.  

The potential exists for temperatures to run generally above to much above normal through the third week of February. Afterward, temperatures could cool during the closing 7 days of the month. However, no severe shots of cold appear likely into late February.

Among the extended range scenarios on the table is a late February-early March 2002-type outcome. Under such a scenario, cold air would flood into the Plains States, but persistent southeast ridging would keep most of the cold away from the northeastern and Mid-Atlantic United States.

During February 28-March 5, 2002 high temperatures in the New York City area generally reached the lower to middle 40s with low temperatures in the 20s at night. At the height of the cold, one night saw the temperature fall into the upper teens. By March 7, the cold was gone and readings return to much above normal levels.

In terms of ENSO, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly went positive for the week centered around February 1st. That is the first positive reading since a +0.2 anomaly during the week centered around October 6, 2021.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around February 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions are beginning to fade and they should evolve to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring.

The SOI was +15.90 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.986 today.

On February 9 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 2.057 (RMM). The February 8-adjusted amplitude was 1.961 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 96% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 40.6° (4.7° above normal).

 

[lee59]

rain changing to snow in elevated Boone N.C.

 

https://www.resortcams.com/webcams/king-street-boone/

[The 4 Seasons]

11 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

New York City's snow season futility rankings through February 11th:

I was curious Don, how is the score calculated? And, did you come up with this yourself or is this something that is used, i've never seen it before this season.

[donsutherland1]

17 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

I was curious Don, how is the score calculated? And, did you come up with this yourself or is this something that is used, i've never seen it before this season.

I came up with it. It’s the standard deviation departure of the mean winter temperature from the historic average (period of record) - the standard deviation departure of snowfall to date from the historic average.

[GaWx]

7 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Not exactly what one would like to see following a SSW event.

 Don and others,

 It surely isn't what I want to see but it is still very early when you consider:

1. Despite relatively high forecast skill at the strat level way out at 1.5 months (note dark colors in top of image below), the skill goes down quickly in the much more difficult to forecast troposphere (note the light colors on the bottom of the image below starting out only two weeks). Thus, how it will play out in the troposphere likely won't be clearly seen for quite some time:

 

2. A warm E US is actually pretty common during and for much of the two week period following a SSW. This SSW still wont hit its peak for another ~4 days (~2/16). So, adding two weeks take us to ~3/2. It is only after this period when any change to a cold pattern typically takes hold in the E US, if it is ever going to do so. That's when I hope for a change to a -AO/-NAO regime. So far, the jury is out as the models have limited skill that far out, especially with the unusual situation of a major SSW.

 

3. As I posted about earlier, the greater than 40 mb Scandinavian-Greenland dipole of late Feb 6th, is based on Simon Lee's studies usually an indicator that any SSW will propagate to the troposphere within a few weeks of it:

 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019JD030940

4. MJO forecasts in combination with this give a lot of hope that the SE ridge domination will end by early March.

 

5. This major SSW may very well end up failing to lead to a colder E US in March. I'm open-minded about it. But it is too early to make that call (I realize you're not yet) and there's still reason to remain hopeful.

[CIK62]

What?     Another day sacrificed to the  Heat Gods?        The 24th has dropped by 35+ degrees in one days worth of runs.

    

[donsutherland1]

55 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Don and others,

 It surely isn't what I want to see but it is still very early when you consider:

1. Despite relatively high forecast skill at the strat level way out at 1.5 months (note dark colors in top of image below), the skill goes down quickly in the much more difficult to forecast troposphere (note the light colors on the bottom of the image below starting out only two weeks). Thus, how it will play out in the troposphere likely won't be clearly seen for quite some time:

 

2. A warm E US is actually pretty common during and for much of the two week period following a SSW. This SSW still wont hit its peak for another ~4 days (~2/16). So, adding two weeks take us to ~3/2. It is only after this period when any change to a cold pattern typically takes hold in the E US, if it is ever going to do so. That's when I hope for a change to a -AO/-NAO regime. So far, the jury is out as the models have limited skill that far out, especially with the unusual situation of a major SSW.

 

3. As I posted about earlier, the greater than 40 mb Scandinavian-Greenland dipole of late Feb 6th, is based on Simon Lee's studies usually an indicator that any SSW will propagate to the troposphere within a few weeks of it:

 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019JD030940

4. MJO forecasts in combination with this give a lot of hope that the SE ridge domination will end by early March.

 

5. This major SSW may very well end up failing to lead to a colder E US in March. I'm open-minded about it. But it is too early to make that call and there's still reason to remain hopeful.

Yes, it is early. Skill scores at that range are low. A lot can still change between now and then.

[donsutherland1]

New York City's snow season futility rankings through February 12th:

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will become mostly sunny. It will be very mild. High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 50s in most areas. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 55°

Newark: 58°

Philadelphia: 59°

Unseasonably mild weather will prevail through Friday.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 41.8°; 15-Year: 41.8°

Newark: 30-Year: 42.5°; 15-Year: 42.6°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 43.8°; 15-Year: 43.6°

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging       44degs.(38/54) or +8.

Month to date is      37.8[+3.4].            Should be       40.5[+5.2]by the 21st.

Reached 48 here yesterday.

Today:     51-54, wind n. to w.-breezy late, m. sunny, 38 tomorrow AM.

Last few days of the month Near Normal or less.

Here is the snow for the rest of the period in which snow is possible.       The corresponding T's are way AN for this period unfortunately so the snow---such as it is---better come by very early March.

43*(43%RH) here at 6am{was 41 at midnight}.        49* at Noon.         57* at 3pm.       Reached 58* at 3:30pm.        53* at 6pm.       51* at 9pm.

[Great Snow 1717]

57 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

New York City's snow season futility rankings through February 12th:

Seven of the 10 worse snow seasons through 2/12 have occurred within the last 25 years.

[bluewave]

Currently the 3rd warmest winter in NYC through the 12th. There were 4 top 10 warmest years since the 15-16 super El Niño. 9 years since the early 90s made the top 10.
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Dec through Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Season	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2001-2002	41.6	0
2	2015-2016	41.0	0
3	2022-2023	40.5	16
-	2011-2012	40.5	0
4	1931-1932	40.2	0
5	1997-1998	39.6	0
6	2016-2017	39.3	0
7	2019-2020	39.2	0
8	1990-1991	39.1	0
9	1998-1999	38.6	0
10	1948-1949	38.5	0
-	1889-1890	38.5	0

[Great Snow 1717]

19 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Currently the 3rd warmest winter in NYC through the 12th. There were 4 top 10 warmest years since the 15-16 super El Niño. 9 years since the early 90s made the top 10.
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Dec through Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Season	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2001-2002	41.6	0
2	2015-2016	41.0	0
3	2022-2023	40.5	16
-	2011-2012	40.5	0
4	1931-1932	40.2	0
5	1997-1998	39.6	0
6	2016-2017	39.3	0
7	2019-2020	39.2	0
8	1990-1991	39.1	0
9	1998-1999	38.6	0
10	1948-1949	38.5	0
-	1889-1890	38.5	0

The 15-16 Super El Nino is still having an impact on global temperatures. 

An interesting read

First-Ever Record of 400 Years of El Ninos Shows They Really Are Getting More Brutal : ScienceAlert

[SACRUS]

Records:  That cold week in 1979 lingered a bit and produced many record lows throughout the area.

 

Highs:

EWR: 65 (1957)
LGA: 65 (1951)
NYC: 64 (1951)

 

Lows:

NYC: -1 (1914)
EWR: 4 (1979)
LGA: 8 (2016)

 

Historical:

 

1784 - Ice floes blocked the Mississippi River at New Orleans, then passed into the Gulf of Mexico. The only other time this occurred was during the "Great Arctic Outbreak" of 1899. (David Ludlum)

1885 - The "Friday the 13th" avalanche at Alva, UT, killed sixteen persons, and left thirteen others buried for twelve hours before being rescued. (David Ludlum)

1889 - It was the coldest morning of record along the Gulf Coast. The temperature dipped to 7 above zero at New Orleans LA and Pensacola FL, and plunged to -1 degree at Mobile AL. The mercury dipped to -2 degrees at Tallahassee, the coldest reading of record for the state of Florida. (David Ludlum)

1905 - Morning lows of -29 degrees at Pond AR, -40 degrees at Lebanon KS, and -40 degrees at Warsaw MO established all-time records for those three states. (The Weather Channel)

1905: Freezing temperatures were recorded over the states of Oklahoma, Arkansas, Kansas, and Missouri. Morning lows of 29 degrees below zero at Gravette, Arkansas, 40 below at Lebanon, Kansas, and 40 below at Warsaw, Missouri, established all-time records for those three states.

The low temperature at Vinita, Oklahoma, plummeted to 27 degrees below zero. The temperature would be tied at Watts in January 1930 and Blackwell and Medford in February 2011. The negative 27-degree reading is cold enough to be the 2nd lowest temperature on record in Oklahoma. The coldest is currently 31 degrees below zero, recorded at Nowata on February 10, 2011.

1987 - A storm in the western U.S. produced heavy rain over central California. Chews Ridge reported nearly eleven inches of rain in 24 hours, and extensive flooding occurred in San Benito County. The Mount Rose ski resort in Nevada experienced a "white-out" with 60 mph winds and 36 inches of snow. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Strong winds in the wake of a storm in the northeastern U.S., gusting to 60 mph at Oswego NY, produced six foot snow drifts in northeastern Ohio. High winds in the mountains of Utah, gusting to 106 mph at the Snowbird ski resort, contributed to a forty car pile-up on Interstate 15, near the town of Bluffdale. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Showers and thunderstorms produced locally heavy rain and flash flooding from central Texas to western Pennsylvania. Up to ten inches of rain deluged western Kentucky in two days, with five day totals ranging up to 13.16 inches at Gilbertsville Dam KY. Flooding caused tens of millions of dollars damage, including 18 million dollars damage at Frankfort KY. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - A slow moving cold front brought heavy snow to Utah, Colorado and Wyoming. Big Horn WY reported 15 inches of snow, and up to 22 inches was reported in Utah. In Colorado, 8 to 12 inches of snow fell over the northwest suburbs of Denver, while 16 to 22 inches was reported in the high mountain elevations west of Fort Collins. Strong winds accompanied the heavy snow, and bitter cold weather followed in its wake. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1995: A National Weather Service Survey Team concluded a weak (F1) tornado occurred at the General Motors Desert Proving Grounds facility in Mesa, Arizona. Moderate damage was observed. A roof was damaged, and about 20 vehicles were destroyed and moved around. One car was lifted, moved several feet, and set down inside a roped-off area containing solar exposure equipment. The tornado traveled northeast and lasted about five minutes. 

 

 

[SACRUS]

WIll be tough  Wed and Thu with record highs being a bit higher than forecast in NYC/EWR/LGA but still a chance in some of the NYC/NJ area.

[CIK62]

Best 7 days I could find.       Centered on the end of winter  March 21.        But  don't sit up nights watching your snow boards, Gents---turn them into surf boards!        Remember 13BN is needed at this time just to get back to mid-winter T's and what about the sun?

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

WIll be tough  Wed and Thu with record highs being a bit higher than forecast in NYC/EWR/LGA but still a chance in some of the NYC/NJ area.

We're done here. Neighbors lilies are budded and ready to bloom. I've seen stuff like this in the 90's, but never with the buds on them already. Spring is here. I was just outside changing soil in various flower and veggie pots. Full of active worms, pillbugs, other creepy crawlers. 

[wdrag]

On 2/11/2023 at 8:12 AM, MJO812 said:

Weekend storm will be nothing for the area 

Following up:  There was no sleet on the northern fringe but there was rain as Digital radar from OKX, CoCoRaHs show here, plus added are the 06z/13 ensemble assessment of 5H, 8H T departure from climo, 8H flow and 7H flow as patterns to consider in future northern fringe of southeast USA cool season upper low pressure systems. 

[winterwx21]

2 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

We're done here. Neighbors lilies are budded and ready to bloom. I've seen stuff like this in the 90's, but never with the buds on them already. Spring is here. I was just outside changing soil in various flower and veggie pots. Full of active worms, pillbugs, other creepy crawlers. 

This weather really makes me want to get out there and start the garden with cool season vegetables like lettuce and broccoli. Obviously have to wait until late March for that though. It'll probably be colder then than what we're having now. It's gonna be 65 degrees on wednesday. 

[GaWx]

15 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yes, it is early. Skill scores at that range are low. A lot can still change between now and then.

 I was just looking back in this forum's discussion when the Feb of 2018 major SSW was starting, which was 3-4 days earlier in Feb than the current one. Mid to late Feb, itself, was similar to this month looking mild with a solid -PNA projected. However, what was different then was that a new strong -NAO/-AO was already appearing late in the model runs, which was attributed to that month's SSW. So, there was already a suggestion based on the models that the overall pattern would likely cool down significantly by the end of Feb or early March vs the higher level of uncertainty today.

[weatherpruf]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

 I was just looking back in this forum's discussion when the Feb of 2018 major SSW was starting, which was 3-4 days earlier in Feb than the current one. Mid to late Feb, itself, was similar to this month looking mild with a solid -PNA projected. However, what was different then was that a new strong -NAO/-AO was already appearing late in the model runs. So, there was already a suggestion based on the models that the overall pattern would likely cool down significantly by the end of Feb or early March vs the higher level of uncertainty today.

It was mostly a dud for my area anyway; this part of NJ is not the spot for March snows.