LibertyBell Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 On 2/11/2023 at 5:29 PM, bluewave said: I think 95-96 will be too tough to beat since we haven’t had wall to wall snow and cold from late November into early April since then. 10-11 was the only season that could have made a challenge but the snows cut off too early at the start of February. Most of our snowy years since 10-11 only had big snows over 1-3 months. Warming winters mean shorter duration snowy intervals. So 75” in NYC and near 90” on Long Island will hard to replicate without more extensive cold and more favorable Pacific patterns. Expand 02-03 was wall to wall too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 On 2/11/2023 at 5:46 PM, LibertyBell said: too much mixed precip in 13-14 that was more like 93-94 coast wont break records in that pattern Expand 13/14 for CPK was 58. if March produced and was not suppressed record broken likely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 On 2/11/2023 at 5:47 PM, EastonSN+ said: Boston broke theirs in 6 weeks. Was a terrible winter for them outside of that. Also 13/14 was as close to wall to wall as you can get and may have broken the record if not for the March suppression. Expand we dont have that kind of climate though, at that latitude you can have that sort of thing happen....Boston is like the arctic compared to NYC...10-11 is the best this area can do in a 6 week timespan We'd much rather have a wall to wall winter anyway 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 On 2/11/2023 at 5:48 PM, LibertyBell said: we dont have that kind of climate though, at that latitude you can have that sort of thing happen....Boston is like the arctic compared to NYC Expand I disagree. Our record is lower due to latitude, so we need less snow to break the record. I can think of a single reason as to why it can't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 On 2/11/2023 at 5:37 PM, bluewave said: 14-15 got started too late and the best snows were in New England that year. Plus it was our last cold winter here. NYC can’t make it past 50” without a colder winter. So even 50” will remain out of reach for NYC with these warmer winters since 15-16. Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 1995-1996 0.0 2.9 11.5 26.1 21.2 13.2 0.7 75.6 1947-1948 0.0 T 30.2 15.3 13.6 4.8 0.0 63.9 2010-2011 0.0 T 20.1 36.0 4.8 1.0 T 61.9 1922-1923 0.0 1.0 8.0 24.5 18.8 8.1 T 60.4 1872-1873 0.0 3.5 26.8 10.6 18.9 0.4 0.0 60.2 2013-2014 0.0 T 8.6 19.7 29.0 0.1 T 57.4 1874-1875 0.0 T 10.1 14.5 4.5 13.8 13.5 56.4 1898-1899 0.0 19.0 1.5 5.3 25.3 4.8 0.0 55.9 1960-1961 T 0.0 18.6 16.7 18.2 1.2 T 54.7 1993-1994 0.0 T 6.9 12.0 26.4 8.1 0.0 53.4 1906-1907 0.0 1.0 0.3 11.0 21.8 13.3 5.8 53.2 1933-1934 0.0 0.5 14.9 0.1 27.9 8.6 0.0 52.0 1966-1967 0.0 0.0 9.1 1.4 23.6 17.4 T 51.5 2009-2010 0.0 0.0 12.4 2.1 36.9 T 0.0 51.4 1977-1978 0.0 0.2 0.4 20.3 23.0 6.8 T 50.7 1916-1917 0.0 T 14.5 5.8 12.2 11.7 6.5 50.7 1915-1916 0.0 T 8.1 0.7 13.1 25.5 3.3 50.7 2014-2015 0.0 0.2 1.0 16.9 13.6 18.6 0.0 50.3 Expand He means 13/14. That winter didn’t shut off until march when the tpv sat over Maine. A less suppressive pattern would have broken 95/96 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 On 2/11/2023 at 5:48 PM, EastonSN+ said: 13/14 for CPK was 58. if March produced and was not suppressed record broken likely. Expand you'd need 20 inches in March, that's very difficult now with extreme UHI. I don't expect a lot of snow in March anymore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 On 2/11/2023 at 5:50 PM, EastonSN+ said: I disagree. Our record is lower due to latitude, so we need less snow to break the record. I can think of a single reason as to why it can't happen. Expand Yeah, I don’t think Boston had much snow going into mid January 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 On 2/11/2023 at 5:50 PM, EastonSN+ said: I disagree. Our record is lower due to latitude, so we need less snow to break the record. I can think of a single reason as to why it can't happen. Expand The record is close to 80, I don't see that happening in a short time span...it's pretty much unprecedented and not part of our climate. Actually if you go back in history, our record is closer to 100" according to Ludlum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 On 2/11/2023 at 5:51 PM, Allsnow said: Yeah, I don’t think Boston had much snow going into mid January 2015 Expand again Boston is a completely different climate, we may be sports rivals, but we're not climate rivals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 On 2/11/2023 at 5:50 PM, LibertyBell said: you'd need 20 inches in March, that's very difficult now with extreme UHI. I don't expect a lot of snow in March anymore. Expand It snowed in DC in 3 storms. We could have broken the record. Talking CPK here not coastal NJ or Brooklyn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 On 2/11/2023 at 5:50 PM, Allsnow said: He means 13/14. That winter didn’t shut off until march when the tpv sat over Maine. A less suppressive pattern would have broken 95/96 Expand you wont break that record without at least one 20"+ HECS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 On 2/11/2023 at 5:50 PM, LibertyBell said: you'd need 20 inches in March, that's very difficult now with extreme UHI. I don't expect a lot of snow in March anymore. Expand Nyc had 10 in march 2018 and 11 in march 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 On 2/11/2023 at 5:51 PM, Allsnow said: Yeah, I don’t think Boston had much snow going into mid January 2015 Expand Correct. It was their 10/11. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 On 2/11/2023 at 5:52 PM, EastonSN+ said: It snowed in DC in 3 storms. We could have broken the record. Talking CPK here not coastal NJ or Brooklyn. Expand DC is much further inland...if you want to look for ideal patterns look at March 2018-April 2018....that is probably the best that can be done in the modern era that late in the season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 On 2/11/2023 at 5:53 PM, Allsnow said: Nyc had 10 in march 2018 and 11 in march 2019 Expand Yeah, big difference between 10 and 20 though. 10 is doable 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 On 2/11/2023 at 5:53 PM, Allsnow said: Nyc had 10 in march 2018 and 11 in march 2019 Expand Yeah I don't get all these no more March snow calls. It literally just snowed in May. The PV did not disappear. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 On 2/11/2023 at 5:53 PM, EastonSN+ said: Correct. It was their 10/11. Expand Yeah 10/11 maxes it out for us....we aren't in Boston's league, it's like comparing a minor league team to a major league team. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 On 2/11/2023 at 5:54 PM, EastonSN+ said: Yeah I don't get all these no more March snow calls. It literally just snowed in May. The PV did not disappear. Expand Of course it can snow in March, just not 20"+ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 On 2/11/2023 at 5:52 PM, LibertyBell said: again Boston is a completely different climate, we may be sports rivals, but we're not climate rivals. Expand The climate argument is irrelevant in this discussion. The point is that it’s not unfathomable to get into a 6 week stretch like Bos did in 2015. It’s obviously would take luck but that’s what is needed to make a good pattern special 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 On 2/11/2023 at 5:53 PM, LibertyBell said: DC is much further inland...if you want to look for ideal patterns look at March 2018-April 2018....that is probably the best that can be done in the modern era that late in the season. Expand Coastal water temps are less of a concern in March. You cannot say that in 14 those March storms would snow in DC and not CPK. In that theory DC would do better than Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 On 2/11/2023 at 5:55 PM, Allsnow said: The climate argument is irrelevant in this discussion. The point is that it’s not unfathomable to get into a 6 week stretch like Bos did in 2015. It’s obviously would take luck but that’s what is needed to make a good pattern special Expand I'd look through past history and what happened in 10-11 and 17-18 and that pretty much maxes out what is possible in our region. Two twenty inch snowstorms plus a couple of moderate storms......we need to be realistic 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 February 21 was special which had 26 inches at Nyc 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 On 2/11/2023 at 5:56 PM, EastonSN+ said: Coastal water temps are less of a concern in March. You cannot say that in 14 those March storms would snow in DC and not CPK. In that theory DC would do better than Boston Expand Coastal water temps isn't a concern, getting snow to stick in urban areas is the concern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 On 2/11/2023 at 5:57 PM, Allsnow said: February 21 was special which had 26 inches at Nyc Expand Yes February is fine, it's the best month for snowfall. Things change rapidly in March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 On 2/11/2023 at 5:57 PM, LibertyBell said: I'd look through past history and what happened in 10-11 and 17-18 and that pretty much maxes out what is possible in our region. Two twenty inch snowstorms plus a couple of moderate storms......we need to be realistic Expand Boston thought the same thing about limitations before 14/15 happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 On 2/11/2023 at 5:52 PM, EastonSN+ said: It snowed in DC in 3 storms. We could have broken the record. Talking CPK here not coastal NJ or Brooklyn. Expand There's not that much of a difference between coastal NJ and Brooklyn and NYC.....if you look at late season patterns, I'd argue that Brooklyn and coastal NJ actually do better than NYC because of what you said before about colder water temps...vs Manhattan being much more urbanized. There's a few storms that prove this....April 1996 and April 1997 being near the top of the list. Still not historic but 10" is definitely possible late in the season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 On 2/11/2023 at 5:58 PM, LibertyBell said: Yes February is fine, it's the best month for snowfall. Things change rapidly in March. Expand They change but if it can snow 4 inches in April it can snow much much more in March. With the PV on our side and moved a little bit can be MAJOR especially if they occur overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 On 2/11/2023 at 6:00 PM, EastonSN+ said: Boston thought the same thing about limitations before 14/15 happened. Expand Boston already had close to 100" in previous historic winters. You really cannot compare Boston to New York, it's night and day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 On 2/11/2023 at 6:02 PM, EastonSN+ said: They change but if it can snow 4 inches in April it can snow much much more in March. With the PV on our side and moved a little bit can be MAJOR especially if they occur overnight. Expand Yeah I compiled this list of what is realistically possible by month....I had 12" for March and 6" for April. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 On 2/11/2023 at 6:02 PM, LibertyBell said: Boston already had close to 100" in previous historic winters. You really cannot compare Boston to New York, it's night and day. Expand It was their record. No reason that CPK cannot break their record.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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