February 2023

[EastonSN+]

12 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

El Ninos arent good for us. You want a reset, fine.

Modoki El Ninos are our top snowfall winters.

14/15 and 02/03 were El Ninos.

If I am not mistaken, 09/10 was an El Nino as well.

If you are talking about STRONG El Ninos correct. We do not want 97/98.

[FPizz]

61.2 earlier.  Now it is 54 and really windy.  

[Cfa]

55 here, feels like a May morning. Feels amazing.

[Great Snow 1717]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

New York City's snow season futility rankings through February 9th. For @Roger Smith, 1992-1993 ranked 18th.

For much of the eastern 1/3 of the country it has been a non winter. 

[EastonSN+]

4 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

For much of the eastern 1/3 of the country it has been a non winter. 

Yeah, I learned that I never want to witness a triple dip la Nina ever again.

[Great Snow 1717]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah, I learned that I never want to witness a triple dip la Nina ever again.

far too many people downplayed LaNina heading into the fall and winter. 

[forkyfork]

9 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Feb 1983, Feb 2003, 75 miles away from 2 feet on 2/6/10 and several others that winter that did hit, etc in addition to Jan 2016. I’ll take a Nino any day. If 97-98 wasn’t so overwhelmingly warm it would’ve been a very solid winter since there were so many good tracks. Not endless cutters like so many Nina years. 

The real wild card is the W Pacific in any Nino now though since we had the W Pacific warm pool in 18-19 and much of the winter behaved like a Nina as a result. 

1958, 1969, 1978, 1983, 2003, 2005, 2010, 2016

[the_other_guy]

7 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

1958, 1969, 1978, 1983, 2003, 2005, 2010, 2016

now list the bad ones. Go ahead…

[SnoSki14]

Looking at the 10 day forecast and I can't believe it's mid Feb. It reads more like early April. 

Record early green ups coming. Next week will be warmer than this one

[forkyfork]

1 minute ago, the_other_guy said:

now list the bad ones. Go ahead…

after you list the bad ninas

[bluewave]

The record high only lasted a year at Islip.

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY
0814 AM EST FRI FEB 10 2023

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT ISLIP NY...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 57 WAS SET AT ISLIP NY TODAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 56 SET IN 2022.

THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED LATER TODAY IF THE TEMPERATURE 
CONTINUES TO RISE.

RECORDS GO BACK TO THE YEAR 1963 AT THIS CLIMATE STATION.

ALL CLIMATE DATA ARE CONSIDERED PRELIMINARY UNTIL REVIEWED BY THE 
NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION (NCEI).

[EastonSN+]

Please correct me if I am mistaken but I believe the following is best enso state to worst:

Weak El Nino

Moderate El Nino

Weak la nina

Neutral

Moderate la Nina

Strong El Nino

Strong la nina

[the_other_guy]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Please correct me if I am mistaken but I believe the following is best enso state to worst:

Weak El Nino

Moderate El Nino

Weak la nina

Neutral

Moderate la Nina

Strong El Nino

Strong la nina

for this discussion, you really have to bring in probability of occurrence to coincide with this.

 

if we are going to root for an El Niño to fix our problems, it is great to discuss the strength… But more important to discuss how often the weak state occurs. Not often enough to root for it.

 

 

[forkyfork]

you made a blanket statement that was wrong. sry 

[Brian5671]

29 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Looking at the 10 day forecast and I can't believe it's mid Feb. It reads more like early April. 

Record early green ups coming. Next week will be warmer than this one

Not sure about that-we may turn colder as we head towards March with the MJO going into the colder phases and the possible effects of the SSWE

[the_other_guy]

3 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

you made a blanket statement that was wrong. sry 

You’re listing the bad ones, right? 

[forkyfork]

1 minute ago, the_other_guy said:

You’re listing the bad ones, right? 

is that going to eliminate the blizzard of 2016's existence 

[donsutherland1]

29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The record high only lasted a year at Islip.

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY
0814 AM EST FRI FEB 10 2023

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT ISLIP NY...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 57 WAS SET AT ISLIP NY TODAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 56 SET IN 2022.

THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED LATER TODAY IF THE TEMPERATURE 
CONTINUES TO RISE.

RECORDS GO BACK TO THE YEAR 1963 AT THIS CLIMATE STATION.

ALL CLIMATE DATA ARE CONSIDERED PRELIMINARY UNTIL REVIEWED BY THE 
NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION (NCEI).

Bridgeport, Islip, New Haven, all three New York City sites, and White Plains have tied or broken their daily records.

[SnoSki14]

5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Not sure about that-we may turn colder as we head towards March with the MJO going into the colder phases and the possible effects of the SSWE

Turning colder is easy when you have 60s in mid Feb. Hell 45-50 would be a big step down but it doesn't mean anything. 

You'd need a full scale pattern change aka blocking to deliver real cold & snow in March and I don't know if that will happen.

[lee59]

34 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Bridgeport, Islip, New Haven, all three New York City sites, and White Plains have tied or broken their daily records.

Got up to 58 here, now down to 57

[lee59]

I know it is wishful thinking, but if that storm passing to our Southeast gets close enough with heavy enough precipitation and some chilly air in place, maybe it could snow.

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, lee59 said:

Got up to 58 here, now down to 57

 

3 minutes ago, lee59 said:

I know it is wishful thinking, but if that storm passing to our Southeast gets close enough with heavy enough precipitation and some chilly air in place, maybe it could snow.

People watching the temp drop in Times Square

[Great Snow 1717]

14 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Got up to 58 here, now down to 57

National Guard landing in Central Park to provide assistance before the temp falls into the upper 40's..help is on the way!

[lee59]

Ir is so mild that even the 30mph wind does not feel bad.

[Gravity Wave]

As far as I'm concerned there's little downside to a Nino. Either it's a weak or moderate Nino and we have a favorable ENSO state for next winter (finally) or it's a strong Nino and we have a chance of disrupting the stuck patterns that took hold after the 2015-16 super Nino (most of which have been unfavorable to us). Plus, as has been noted, strong Ninos offer a chance of an HECS amidst an otherwise bad winter. 

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, Gravity Wave said:

As far as I'm concerned there's little downside to a Nino. Either it's a weak or moderate Nino and we have a favorable ENSO state for next winter (finally) or it's a strong Nino and we have a chance of disrupting the stuck patterns that took hold after the 2015-16 super Nino (most of which have been unfavorable to us). Plus, as has been noted, strong Ninos offer a chance of an HECS amidst an otherwise bad winter. 

There is next to no chance its strong.  I'd say there is a better chance of neutral ENSO next winter than a  strong Nino

[SnowGoose69]

13 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

True but other than that one storm most of that winter was mild and snowless, with the warmest December in history beating the old mark by 7 degrees. I’ll pass on another one of those. 
 

I still prefer winters with several storms of moderate size, with prolonged snow cover and average to slightly below average temperatures. Of course even up where I am in Orange County those are getting less and less frequent. 

December 2015 acted like a La Nina because the MJO I think went raging through 3=4=5....rarely do you ever see a SER in a strong Nino December and we did that year.  Places like Atlanta and Charlotte had their warmest Decembers on record...that never should happen in an El Nino unless you have a raging zonal flow and no cold air around, not a SER

[EasternLI]

2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah, I learned that I never want to witness a triple dip la Nina ever again.

Yes, this is usually my rule of thumb with that. It's funny too, I thought this winter would suck back in August. Then the blocking became a possibility and I reconsidered everything lol. Because blocking is what you look for in la Nina if it's going to be any good. That was an interesting development. It failed, sometimes they do. Is what it is. 

 

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Please correct me if I am mistaken but I believe the following is best enso state to worst:

Weak El Nino

Moderate El Nino

Weak la nina

Neutral

Moderate la Nina

Strong El Nino

Strong la nina

Swap neutral and moderate la nina with each other and I agree. Neutral sucks, too strong in either direction does too. Just a very basic guideline. Many other variables to consider. 

[SnowGoose69]

14 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Yes, this is usually my rule of thumb with that. It's funny too, I thought this winter would suck back in August. Then the blocking became a possibility and I reconsidered everything lol. Because blocking is what you look for in la Nina if it's going to be any good. That was an interesting development. It failed, sometimes they do. Is what it is. 

 

Swap neutral and moderate la nina with each other and I agree. Neutral sucks, too strong in either direction does too. Just a very basic guideline. Many other variables to consider. 

Neutral ENSO winters which occur near the solar max historically are very bad for some reason...there has been many theories as to why...most likely its that the AO/NAO simply average strongly positive in those years but it may also be that without the La Nina/El Nino you lose some ability to get pronounced ridging or troughing in some locations so the pattern has a tendency to be more zonal and the bad AO/NAO amplify that issue 

[EasternLI]

21 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

There is next to no chance its strong.  I'd say there is a better chance of neutral ENSO next winter than a  strong Nino

I like a weak to moderate modoki el nino next year. We're following EOF2 from the following paper fairly well. Which leads to that. I agree neutral isn't off the table just yet. Whatever it is, it is not similar to EOF1. Which leads to the east based classic events. 

Leading modes of tropical Pacific subsurface ocean temperature and associations with two types of El Nino

https://www.nature.com/articles/srep42371