February 2023

[bluewave]

  On 2/9/2023 at 1:24 PM, EastonSN+ said:

Speaking of heat island effect, I wonder what the 100 year temperature change is for say Larchmont as compared to Central Park. 

We use CPK as our overall benchmark, however most live outside of Manhattan.

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We don’t have the 100 year data for the more rural locations. But since global warming accelerated around 1980, low temperatures at the more rural locations have been warming faster than NYC . We can see this when the winter low temperature trends since 1980 are examined. The lows at POU are warming the fastest followed by HPN then NYC.

 

 

 

 

 

[donsutherland1]

  On 2/9/2023 at 4:21 PM, EastonSN+ said:

I saw a couple snowfall maps in the MA forum in the past where a little snow deficit "hole" surrounded DC almost perfectly. Snowfall accums we're east west south and north.

I feel that NYC will see a drop off in snowfall much much quicker than all surrounding areas in a similar manner. Where say Larchmont will remain average in snowfall for years to come while CPK will see a dramatic drop in average snowfall.

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That may well be the case. However, the difference probably wouldn't be too great. For an example, I looked at Lynchburg, VA (2021 population: 79,009) for an idea of how a smaller location would fare. Lynchburg, which was not part of the dataset, has had 30-season winter temperatures in the 37.0° or above threshold for 88 years albeit with some cases below that threshold.

The average snowfall during that time was 14.4". The predicted value (mid-point between the 95% confidence limits) was also 14.4". Overall, 56% of seasons had a mean snowfall below predicted value and 44% had a mean snowfall above the predicted value. Only 5/88 (6%) of seasons had snowfall outside the confidence interval (very close to the statistical 5% figure.

For the 30-season average ending with Winter 2021-2022, Lynchburg has a winter mean temperature of 38.1°. Mean seasonal snowfall is 14.1". The predicted value is 14.5". The actual figure falls just below the mid-point of the 95% confidence interval.

 

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 63 (1990)
NYC: 63 (1990)
LGA: 62 (1990)

 

 

Lows (all time for many spots)

NYC: -15 (1934)
EWR: -14 (1934)
LGA: 7 !1979)

 

Historical:

 

1899: One of the most significant cold outbreaks to ever impact the United States occurred early to mid-February. From the 8th-11th, the statewide average temperature across Iowa was 14.6 degrees below zero, making it the coldest four-day stretch on record in the state. On the 8th, Sioux City experienced its coldest day on record, with a daily average temperature of 24 degrees below zero. Then on the 11th, they reached their second-coldest temperature on record with a low of minus 31. Overall the coldest readings were obtained on the morning of the 9th when reported low temperatures included -21 at Keokuk, -23 at Des Moines, -33 at New Hampton, -35 at Le Mars, -38 at Estherville, and -40 at Sibley. The cold across the middle of the country was so extreme and persistent that ice floes down the Mississippi River into the deep south, emerging into the Gulf of Mexico near New Orleans on February 17th. This has happened only one other time: February 13, 1784. The temperature dropped to 63 degrees below zero at Norway House, Manitoba, Canada setting the province's low-temperature record.

1933 - The temperature at Moran, WY, located next to Teton National Park, plunged to 63 degrees below zero to establish a state record. The temperature at the Riverside Ranger Station in Montana dipped to 66 below zero to establish a record for the state, and a record for the nation which stood until 1954. (David Ludlum)

1934 - The mercury dipped to 51 degrees below zero at Vanderbilt to establish a record for the state of Michigan. The temperature at Stillwater plunged to 52 degrees below zero to establish a record for the state of New York. (David Ludlum)

1987 - A storm off the Atlantic coast produced high winds and heavy snow in the northeastern U.S., with blizzard conditions in eastern Massachusetts. Wind gusted to 80 mph and 23.4 inches of snow produced drifts eight feet high at Cape Cod MA. It was the worst blizzard in thirty years for the Cape Cod area. Winds in some of the mountains and ridges of the Appalachian Region gusted to 100 mph. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Arctic cold invaded the north central U.S. Alliance NE plunged from 44 degrees to 12 above in just two hours, and Mobridge SD reported a wind chill of 64 degrees below zero. Winds along the eastern slopes of the Rockies gusted to 90 mph at Cheyenne WY, and reached 96 mph at Boulder CO. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - A winter storm continued to bring rain and snow to southern California. Snowfall totals ranged up to 18 inches at Olancha, with three inches at Palmdale. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front erupted over eastern Texas late in the morning, and produced severe weather as they swept across the southeastern states. Early evening thunderstorms spawned a tornado which injured one person at Nat TX, and produced tennis balls size hail which caused more than half a million dollars damage around Shreveport LA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1994: A devastating ice storm struck Mississippi, Louisiana, and extreme northwest Alabama. Freezing rain began falling over northern Mississippi during the early morning hours and continued until midday on the 10th. Ice accumulated 3 to 6 inches thick on exposed objects in the affected area. Due to the weight of the ice, power lines, trees, and tree limbs were down. Nearly one million people were without power after the storm, some for a month. 

 

 

[SACRUS]

More on the 1934 record arctic outbreak

https://www.nytimes.com/1996/02/06/nyregion/but-what-about-february-9-1934.html#:~:text=By 7 A.M.%2C it was,said it was 14.3 below.

[wilsonvoid1]

could it snow sunday night?


.

[LibertyBell]

  On 2/9/2023 at 12:10 PM, weatherpruf said:

Granted. But as I've pointed out in the past, meteorology is not a licensed field, so in fact anyone can say they are a weather forecaster, and some over the years have been good at it. 

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I like the ones that have the AMS seal, does that require a four year science degree to get?

 

[LibertyBell]

  On 2/9/2023 at 5:33 PM, SACRUS said:

More on the 1934 record arctic outbreak

https://www.nytimes.com/1996/02/06/nyregion/but-what-about-february-9-1934.html#:~:text=By 7 A.M.%2C it was,said it was 14.3 below.

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We should look into the 1943 outbreak too, that one gets overlooked.  That was the last time we had a historic arctic outbreak (temp of -5 or lower).

 

[LibertyBell]

  On 2/9/2023 at 5:32 PM, SACRUS said:

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 63 (1990)
NYC: 63 (1990)
LGA: 62 (1990)

 

 

Lows (all time for many spots)

NYC: -15 (1934)
EWR: -14 (1934)
LGA: 7 !1979)

 

Historical:

 

1899: One of the most significant cold outbreaks to ever impact the United States occurred early to mid-February. From the 8th-11th, the statewide average temperature across Iowa was 14.6 degrees below zero, making it the coldest four-day stretch on record in the state. On the 8th, Sioux City experienced its coldest day on record, with a daily average temperature of 24 degrees below zero. Then on the 11th, they reached their second-coldest temperature on record with a low of minus 31. Overall the coldest readings were obtained on the morning of the 9th when reported low temperatures included -21 at Keokuk, -23 at Des Moines, -33 at New Hampton, -35 at Le Mars, -38 at Estherville, and -40 at Sibley. The cold across the middle of the country was so extreme and persistent that ice floes down the Mississippi River into the deep south, emerging into the Gulf of Mexico near New Orleans on February 17th. This has happened only one other time: February 13, 1784. The temperature dropped to 63 degrees below zero at Norway House, Manitoba, Canada setting the province's low-temperature record.

1933 - The temperature at Moran, WY, located next to Teton National Park, plunged to 63 degrees below zero to establish a state record. The temperature at the Riverside Ranger Station in Montana dipped to 66 below zero to establish a record for the state, and a record for the nation which stood until 1954. (David Ludlum)

1934 - The mercury dipped to 51 degrees below zero at Vanderbilt to establish a record for the state of Michigan. The temperature at Stillwater plunged to 52 degrees below zero to establish a record for the state of New York. (David Ludlum)

1987 - A storm off the Atlantic coast produced high winds and heavy snow in the northeastern U.S., with blizzard conditions in eastern Massachusetts. Wind gusted to 80 mph and 23.4 inches of snow produced drifts eight feet high at Cape Cod MA. It was the worst blizzard in thirty years for the Cape Cod area. Winds in some of the mountains and ridges of the Appalachian Region gusted to 100 mph. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Arctic cold invaded the north central U.S. Alliance NE plunged from 44 degrees to 12 above in just two hours, and Mobridge SD reported a wind chill of 64 degrees below zero. Winds along the eastern slopes of the Rockies gusted to 90 mph at Cheyenne WY, and reached 96 mph at Boulder CO. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - A winter storm continued to bring rain and snow to southern California. Snowfall totals ranged up to 18 inches at Olancha, with three inches at Palmdale. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front erupted over eastern Texas late in the morning, and produced severe weather as they swept across the southeastern states. Early evening thunderstorms spawned a tornado which injured one person at Nat TX, and produced tennis balls size hail which caused more than half a million dollars damage around Shreveport LA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1994: A devastating ice storm struck Mississippi, Louisiana, and extreme northwest Alabama. Freezing rain began falling over northern Mississippi during the early morning hours and continued until midday on the 10th. Ice accumulated 3 to 6 inches thick on exposed objects in the affected area. Due to the weight of the ice, power lines, trees, and tree limbs were down. Nearly one million people were without power after the storm, some for a month. 

 

 

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1899 had a mighty historic outbreak too, accompanied by a HECS

[LibertyBell]

  On 2/9/2023 at 4:57 PM, bluewave said:

We don’t have the 100 year data for the more rural locations. But since global warming accelerated around 1980, low temperatures at the more rural locations have been warming faster than NYC . We can see this when the winter low temperature trends since 1980 are examined. The lows at POU are warming the fastest followed by HPN then NYC.

 

 

 

 

 

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This makes sense, as the outer suburbs would have more room to rise than NYC would.

 

[LibertyBell]

  On 2/9/2023 at 4:21 PM, EastonSN+ said:

I saw a couple snowfall maps in the MA forum in the past where a little snow deficit "hole" surrounded DC almost perfectly. Snowfall accums we're east west south and north.

I feel that NYC will see a drop off in snowfall much much quicker than all surrounding areas in a similar manner. Where say Larchmont will remain average in snowfall for years to come while CPK will see a dramatic drop in average snowfall.

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near the coast we've dropped off more quickly than NYC has....JFK has had almost as many single digit snowfall seasons as they've had 30"+ snowfall seasons

 

[LibertyBell]

  On 2/9/2023 at 4:21 PM, EastonSN+ said:

I saw a couple snowfall maps in the MA forum in the past where a little snow deficit "hole" surrounded DC almost perfectly. Snowfall accums we're east west south and north.

I feel that NYC will see a drop off in snowfall much much quicker than all surrounding areas in a similar manner. Where say Larchmont will remain average in snowfall for years to come while CPK will see a dramatic drop in average snowfall.

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snowfall is another thing where "average" doesn't apply, you either get a lot of snow or very little snow.

 

[bluewave]

  On 2/9/2023 at 4:21 PM, EastonSN+ said:

I saw a couple snowfall maps in the MA forum in the past where a little snow deficit "hole" surrounded DC almost perfectly. Snowfall accums we're east west south and north.

I feel that NYC will see a drop off in snowfall much much quicker than all surrounding areas in a similar manner. Where say Larchmont will remain average in snowfall for years to come while CPK will see a dramatic drop in average snowfall.

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Danbury, CT has actually had a snowfall decline over the last 30 years while NYC has held more steady. 
 

 

[SnoSki14]

  On 2/9/2023 at 5:59 PM, LibertyBell said:

1899 had a mighty historic outbreak too, accompanied by a HECS

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Can you imagine that right now. It's been so warm and snowless that I can't even consider that happening.

[Gravity Wave]

  On 2/9/2023 at 6:28 PM, SnoSki14 said:

Can you imagine that right now. It's been so warm and snowless that I can't even consider that happening.

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I think it was more of an HECS for the southern Mid Atlantic, the Jersey shore and Cape Cod than NYC. DC had 20 inches and Cape May had 34!

[Stormlover74]

  On 2/9/2023 at 6:04 PM, LibertyBell said:

snowfall is another thing where "average" doesn't apply, you either get a lot of snow or very little snow.

 

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LI will have more winters like last year where they get slammed or this year with nothing

[EastonSN+]

  On 2/9/2023 at 6:22 PM, bluewave said:

Danbury, CT has actually had a snowfall decline over the last 30 years while NYC has held more steady. 
 

 

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Yeah I noticed that locally. For instance, NEMO dry slotted then as did December 2010, December 2009 and a host of other storms. 

That area has been very unlucky since 2000.

[bluewave]

  On 2/9/2023 at 6:34 PM, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah I noticed that locally. For instance, NEMO dry slotted then as did December 2010, December 2009 and a host of other storms. 

That area has been very unlucky since 2000.

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That area experienced its peak in the 2000s while NYC was during the 2010s.

[NorthShoreWx]

I lead a group hike in the cold weather Saturday morning.  The air was super clear except for a hint of sea smoke on the Sound.  This is what Bridgeport looked like from Sunken Meadow SP:

https://photos.app.goo.gl/5ab43cCBUovTnxsTA

 

[lee59]

Maybe a glimmer of hope for a pattern change to sustained cold, in about 2 weeks. If it happens, it will be the time of year when I am normally looking forward to spring.

[EastonSN+]

  On 2/9/2023 at 6:36 PM, bluewave said:

That area experienced its peak in the 2000s while NYC was during the 2010s.

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I live south of Danbury and I feel like I get more snow than them. If I had to guess Danbury has experienced the biggest drop off in all CT.

[EastonSN+]

Weeklies went ape with blocking. BROOKLYNWX posted on the MA and NE forums.

I mean a ton of blocking.

[EastonSN+]

It does start with the SE ridge/NAO link but progresses to a more classic look as the month concludes.

[Brian5671]

  On 2/9/2023 at 9:49 PM, EastonSN+ said:

Weeklies went ape with blocking. BROOKLYNWX posted on the MA and NE forums.

I mean a ton of blocking.

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feeling the effects of the SSWE perhaps

[brooklynwx99]

  On 2/9/2023 at 10:04 PM, Brian5671 said:

feeling the effects of the SSWE perhaps

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i would say so. we pray for this, as we’d definitely get some events with this kind of pattern. it’s relentless verbatim 

SSWEs are unpredictable and blocking is obviously no guarantee, but I would favor it over keeping the status quo with an event of this magnitude

[Rjay]

  On 2/9/2023 at 5:32 PM, SACRUS said:

1994: A devastating ice storm struck Mississippi, Louisiana, and extreme northwest Alabama. Freezing rain began falling over northern Mississippi during the early morning hours and continued until midday on the 10th. Ice accumulated 3 to 6 inches thick on exposed objects in the affected area. Due to the weight of the ice, power lines, trees, and tree limbs were down. Nearly one million people were without power after the storm, some for a month. 

 

 

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This ended up being one of the 2 back to back 12" storms for nyc metro, right?

[Rjay]

  On 2/9/2023 at 10:06 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

i would say so. we pray for this, as we’d definitely get some events with this kind of pattern. it’s relentless verbatim 

SSWEs are unpredictable and blocking is obviously no guarantee, but I would favor it over keeping the status quo with an event of this magnitude

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I guess Euro takes the mjo in 8 and not into the COD. I'm busy at work so I haven't looked. Just a guess.  

[SnoSki14]

  On 2/9/2023 at 10:04 PM, Brian5671 said:

feeling the effects of the SSWE perhaps

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Maybe. If there's any month that could have blocking, it's March and early season blocking (December) does tend to repeat eventually. 

But you're also fighting climo by then. You need a cold March to get snow. 

[Brian5671]

  On 2/9/2023 at 10:17 PM, SnoSki14 said:

Maybe. If there's any month that could have blocking, it's March and early season blocking (December) does tend to repeat eventually. 

But you're also fighting climo by then. You need a cold March to get snow. 

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March 2018 alot of us cashed in...but you're right snow was tough to accumulate during daytime hrs and urban areas really struggled but that was a heck of a 4-5 weeks.

[MJO812]

Bye

[Nibor]

  On 2/9/2023 at 10:06 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

i would say so. we pray for this, as we’d definitely get some events with this kind of pattern. it’s relentless verbatim 

SSWEs are unpredictable and blocking is obviously no guarantee, but I would favor it over keeping the status quo with an event of this magnitude

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What a look. Hope it pans out. Let’s score something, anything.