February 2023

[Dark Star]

23 hours ago, eduggs said:

Maybe.

I was just trying to point out the difference between atmospheric scientists, climatologists, hydrologists with graduate degrees, PhDs etc who do research vs. "weather forecasters" who tend not to utilize the scientific method as readily. Certainly there is overlap, but in a general sense there is a divide between the types who study meteorology in college vs. physics or chemistry.

I thought meteorology was physics, chemistry and mathematics?  I must have taken the wrong program...

[wdrag]

fwiw... if the ULL tracks east, probably no go for us n of I80 but if the ULL tracks 1 or 2 degs further N, then I think the I84 corridor has a good chance of deformation zone snow (4") in n-nw edge of 7H LOW where FGEN-convergence occurs.  I'll be watching trends in the modeled 7H-5H lows the next several days.  In the meantime, 12z op model heights at 500MB are generally 30-60M higher than the 12z EC op. That makes a significant difference in ptype nw edge. 

Thermal profile are marginal but I'm pretty sure if models reverse the se trend in today's models, that we'll see a pretty decent amount of snow in the Pocs-I84 corridor.  This still has a chance to edge a little further north than recently modeled. It's not an overwhelming amount of cooling in the column that is needed, in my opinion. It's latitude of the 7H-5H low that I think is important fgen significant snow N of I80.

 

For reference check some Novak, Grumm, Bosart, Evans etc on banding, 

 

 

[LibertyBell]

48 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Only 3 seasons in the last 30 years with a seasonal snowfall in the 20s vs 12 for previous 30. The the mid-range has been missing as the high and low extremes increase. So you have a high success rate if your seasonal forecasts avoid a seasonal forecast in the 20s. But the trick is knowing ahead of time if it’s under 20” or over 30”. We’ll know before this decade is out if the warming of the climate and La Niña WPAC warm pool results in under 20” or even 10” some years becoming the new normal.

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Oct through Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Season	Total Snowfall	Missing Count
1	2022-2023	0.2	235
2	2021-2022	21.7	0
3	2020-2021	34.5	0
4	2019-2020	3.8	0
5	2018-2019	14.7	0
6	2017-2018	35.5	0
7	2016-2017	30.9	0
8	2015-2016	41.4	0
9	2014-2015	44.2	0
10	2013-2014	45.6	0
11	2012-2013	17.6	0
12	2011-2012	3.7	0
13	2010-2011	42.0	0
14	2009-2010	47.2	0
15	2008-2009	22.3	0
16	2007-2008	11.7	0
17	2006-2007	8.5	0
18	2005-2006	25.4	0
19	2004-2005	36.8	0
20	2003-2004	37.6	0
21	2002-2003	56.2	0
22	2001-2002	4.5	0
23	2000-2001	33.8	0
24	1999-2000	14.1	0
25	1998-1999	12.3	0
26	1997-1998	3.6	0
27	1996-1997	9.8	0
28	1995-1996	69.0	0
29	1994-1995	7.9	0
30	1993-1994	45.2	0

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Oct through Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Season	Total Snowfall	Missing Count
1992-1993	20.0	0
1991-1992	10.5	0
1990-1991	20.4	0
1989-1990	9.6	0
1988-1989	8.2	0
1987-1988	19.7	0
1986-1987	23.1	0
1985-1986	19.3	0
1984-1985	27.3	0
1983-1984	22.0	0
1982-1983	32.1	0
1981-1982	24.9	0
1980-1981	16.5	0
1979-1980	11.0	0
1978-1979	27.2	0
1977-1978	48.5	0
1976-1977	22.7	0
1975-1976	20.7	0
1974-1975	10.5	0
1973-1974	21.8	0
1972-1973	1.6	0
1971-1972	14.9	0
1970-1971	20.1	0
1969-1970	19.5	0
1968-1969	30.8	0
1967-1968	17.4	0
1966-1967	47.0	0
1965-1966	15.6	0
1964-1965	29.5	0
1963-1964	34.4	1

JFK will probably be the first in our local area to approach 10" =\  Chris is this the entire snowfall record from JFK? They didn't have anything from the great winter of 1960-61 or before that?  I remember 25.0" of snow at JFK from the great February 1961 blizzard.

 

[bluewave]

27 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

JFK will probably be the first in our local area to approach 10" =\  Chris is this the entire snowfall record from JFK? They didn't have anything from the great winter of 1960-61 or before that?  I remember 25.0" of snow at JFK from the great February 1961 blizzard.

 

Most of the snowfall is missing before 1960.

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Oct through Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Season	Total Snowfall	Missing Count
1947-1948	0.0	290
1948-1949	44.5	0
1949-1950	12.5	122
1950-1951	M	365
1951-1952	M	366
1952-1953	M	365
1953-1954	M	365
1954-1955	M	365
1955-1956	M	366
1956-1957	M	365
1957-1958	M	365
1958-1959	8.3	123
1959-1960	34.2	3
1960-1961	58.5	1

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Most of the snowfall is missing before 1960.

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Oct through Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Season	Total Snowfall	Missing Count
1947-1948	0.0	290
1948-1949	44.5	0
1949-1950	12.5	122
1950-1951	M	365
1951-1952	M	366
1952-1953	M	365
1953-1954	M	365
1954-1955	M	365
1955-1956	M	366
1956-1957	M	365
1957-1958	M	365
1958-1959	8.3	123
1959-1960	34.2	3
1960-1961	58.5	1

wow 1947-48 was probably the snowiest before 1960-61

 

1948-49 was the first one with the one big storm but mild winter.... but having that right after 1947-48 must have been something.

[eduggs]

5 hours ago, wdrag said:

fwiw... if the ULL tracks east, probably no go for us n of I80 but if the ULL tracks 1 or 2 degs further N, then I think the I84 corridor has a good chance of deformation zone snow (4") in n-nw edge of 7H LOW where FGEN-convergence occurs.  I'll be watching trends in the modeled 7H-5H lows the next several days.  In the meantime, 12z op model heights at 500MB are generally 30-60M higher than the 12z EC op. That makes a significant difference in ptype nw edge. 

Thermal profile are marginal but I'm pretty sure if models reverse the se trend in today's models, that we'll see a pretty decent amount of snow in the Pocs-I84 corridor.  This still has a chance to edge a little further north than recently modeled. It's not an overwhelming amount of cooling in the column that is needed, in my opinion. It's latitude of the 7H-5H low that I think is important fgen significant snow N of I80.

 

For reference check some Novak, Grumm, Bosart, Evans etc on banding, 

 

 

The 0z UKMET gets the ULL pretty far north. Would probably be some decent deform snow NEPA - I-84 corridor. The soundings that I can see - GFS - are really warm above the deck. Wish I could see some of the others. I think you're right that localized banding would cool the column - probably deep layer isothermal result.

[Rtd208]

DT (WxRisk)

 

[donsutherland1]

New York City's snow season futility rankings through February 8th:

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will be mostly cloudy and mild. A few locations could see a shower. High temperatures will reach the upper 40s and lower 50s in most areas. Southern New Jersey and southeastern Pennsylvania could see the mercury reach or exceed 60°. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 53°

Newark: 56°

Philadelphia: 61°

It will be unseasonably mild through Friday.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 41.0°; 15-Year: 41.1°

Newark: 30-Year: 41.7°; 15-Year: 41.9°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 43.0°; 15-Year: 42.9°

[wdrag]

6 hours ago, eduggs said:

The 0z UKMET gets the ULL pretty far north. Would probably be some decent deform snow NEPA - I-84 corridor. The soundings that I can see - GFS - are really warm above the deck. Wish I could see some of the others. I think you're right that localized banding would cool the column - probably deep layer isothermal result.

I haven't seen anything that discards the potential. Have informed my FB friends.. possibly 1" snow ATL Sunday morning, altering travel into western NC and western VA mountains Sunday with potential for widespread mountain power outages due to ice-wet snow accums,  and potential slippery mixed mess for a few hours interior suburbs BWI-BOS Sunday night, presuming it precipitates up here.

[LibertyBell]

19 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Morning thoughts…

Today will be mostly cloudy and mild. A few locations could see a shower. High temperatures will reach the upper 40s and lower 50s in most areas. Southern New Jersey and southeastern Pennsylvania could see the mercury reach or exceed 60°. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 53°

Newark: 56°

Philadelphia: 61°

It will be unseasonably mild through Friday.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 41.0°; 15-Year: 41.1°

Newark: 30-Year: 41.7°; 15-Year: 41.9°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 43.0°; 15-Year: 42.9°

Beautiful sunrise coming up Don, all the colors are out this morning!

 

[lee59]

Heat island in full force this morning. Currently 44 in NYC and 28 here and most suburbs upper 20s to about 30.

[weatherpruf]

13 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

That's still a science degree though, there's a difference between that and some 19 yr old on Twitter....

 

Granted. But as I've pointed out in the past, meteorology is not a licensed field, so in fact anyone can say they are a weather forecaster, and some over the years have been good at it. 

[weatherpruf]

27 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Beautiful sunrise coming up Don, all the colors are out this morning!

 

Red sky at morning....but I'm out of the boating business these days...

[MJO812]

Close the shades

 

Winter is over 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging     44degs.(39/50) or +8.

Month to date is     33.5[-0.6].         Should be       38.8[+3.4] by the 17th.

Reached 57 here yesterday at 4pm.

No Cool  Down on the Ens.      Op is much better late.

0% till the 21st. and not much better thereafter:

43*(63%RH) here at 6am.        45* at 8am.        47* at 9am.      50* at 11am.       49* at Noon.       50* at 3pm.        48* at6pm.

[SnoSki14]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

New York City's snow season futility rankings through February 8th:

Beating #1 is looking good right now 

[Dark Star]

58 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Granted. But as I've pointed out in the past, meteorology is not a licensed field, so in fact anyone can say they are a weather forecaster, and some over the years have been good at it. 

"Doctor" Bob Harris was purdy good...

[EastonSN+]

New development this morning, the GEFS now gets the MJO into phase 8 like the ECMWF (yesterday the GEFS killed the wave in 7).

So, if one is looking for one more window, there it is if it does indeed reach 8.

[wdrag]

No change in thinking from yesterday on n-nw of ULL messy potentially wet snowy axis near I84 Sunday afternoon-night. 0z/9 SREF shows MAX axis of concern, the edges shaky. through 00z/Monday, before getting going I84 corridor, if it is to get going. 

[EastonSN+]

Speaking of heat island effect, I wonder what the 100 year temperature change is for say Larchmont as compared to Central Park. 

We use CPK as our overall benchmark, however most live outside of Manhattan.

[Brian5671]

46 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Close the shades

 

Winter is over 

Who cancels winter on 2/9? 

[EastonSN+]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

New York City's snow season futility rankings through February 8th:

I remember 97/98 being extremely rainy with a lot of perfect benchmark track rainstorms. 

That was an El Nino, which are typically cooler than la Ninas like this year. That being said, I wonder if 97/98 would have been warmer than this year to date if we had more clear day. This year we have had cold air closer by in the Canadian region.

[SnoSki14]

52 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Close the shades

 

Winter is over 

Things can only get better from here but not until next season

[EastonSN+]

15 hours ago, bluewave said:

13.7”

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	Season
1991-1992	0.0	T	0.9	1.9	0.8	6.9	T	10.5
1990-1991	0.0	0.0	6.1	5.7	7.9	0.7	0.0	20.4
1989-1990	0.0	3.7	0.8	1.4	1.3	1.9	0.5	9.6
1988-1989	0.0	0.0	0.7	4.7	0.1	2.7	0.0	8.2
1987-1988	0.0	0.4	3.0	15.7	0.5	0.1	0.0	19.7

 

 

An interesting comparison IMO would be a 6 year comparison of the following:

96/97 through 01/02

17/18 through this year to date

Outside of 00/01, that stretch was the worst in my lifetime.

If next year is a super Nino, the 6 year period of 18/19 through next year could compare.

[donsutherland1]

Winter 2022-2023 has been exceptionally warm and remarkably snow-free in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Through February 8th, New York City has seen its lowest seasonal snowfall on record and Philadelphia has seen its second lowest figure.

The current "normal" values are:

New York City: DJF mean temperature: 36.2°; mean seasonal snowfall: 29.8"
Philadelphia: DJF mean temperature: 36.1°; mean seasonal snowfall: 23.2"

This raises a question. What will seasonal snowfall look like in the warmer winters to come over the next two decades?

The winters in the lower Middle Atlantic region provide some insight. Therefore, I created a dataset comprised of all the winters in Norfolk, Raleigh, and Richmond. The dataset was comprised of 30-season mean winter (December-February) temperatures and 30-season mean snowfall (July 1-June 30). All of those winters had 30-season mean winter temperature averages of 37.0° or above. Washington, DC had also seen its 30-season mean winter temperatures reach and exceed 37.0°. All 30-season mean winter temperatures of 37.0° or above and the corresponding mean seasonal snowfall were added to the dataset. The sample size was 319.

The next step involved creating a regression equation from the dataset. Once that was done, seasonal snowfall ranges based on 95% confidence intervals were constructed. The coefficient of determination was 0.836.

At least two caveats apply:

1. The regional climate (precipitation, proximity to the Atlantic Ocean, etc..) differ somewhat in the northern Mid-Atlantic region from the area from which the dataset was constructed.

2. The northern Mid-Atlantic region has closer proximity to Canada and, even warm winters, could see stronger pushes of cold air.

Finally, to see how things might be playing out relative to the expectations from the regression equation, I examined winters with mean temperatures of 37.0° or above and 40.0° or above in New York City and Philadelphia. These are individual winters and are not equivalent to 30-season averages. They also fall into colder regimes, which could skew seasonal snowfall higher. Sample size issues, especially with the warmest (40.0° or warmer) winters arise e.g., Winter 2015-2016, which saw a historic snowstorm, skews the mean figure for the small sample sizes.

For Winters with a Mean Temperature of 37.0° or Above:

New York City: Mean Temperature: 38..4°; Mean Snowfall: 18.1"
Philadelphia: Mean Temperature: 38.9°; Mean Snowfall: 13.0"

For Winters with a Mean Temperature of 40.0° or Above:

New York City: Mean Temperature: 40.8°; Mean Snowfall: 12.3"
Philadelphia: Mean Temperature: 41.2°; Mean Snowfall: 11.1"

 

[MANDA]

Nothing we don't already know but always an interesting read.

 

https://www.njweather.org/content/does-anybody-really-know-what-month-it-january-2023-recap

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Speaking of heat island effect, I wonder what the 100 year temperature change is for say Larchmont as compared to Central Park. 

We use CPK as our overall benchmark, however most live outside of Manhattan.

Unfortunately, many of these communities outside of NYC don’t have climate data.

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Unfortunately, many of these communities outside of NYC don’t have climate data.

I saw a couple snowfall maps in the MA forum in the past where a little snow deficit "hole" surrounded DC almost perfectly. Snowfall accums we're east west south and north.

I feel that NYC will see a drop off in snowfall much much quicker than all surrounding areas in a similar manner. Where say Larchmont will remain average in snowfall for years to come while CPK will see a dramatic drop in average snowfall.

[Winterweatherlover]

16 hours ago, wdrag said:

fwiw... if the ULL tracks east, probably no go for us n of I80 but if the ULL tracks 1 or 2 degs further N, then I think the I84 corridor has a good chance of deformation zone snow (4") in n-nw edge of 7H LOW where FGEN-convergence occurs.  I'll be watching trends in the modeled 7H-5H lows the next several days.  In the meantime, 12z op model heights at 500MB are generally 30-60M higher than the 12z EC op. That makes a significant difference in ptype nw edge. 

Thermal profile are marginal but I'm pretty sure if models reverse the se trend in today's models, that we'll see a pretty decent amount of snow in the Pocs-I84 corridor.  This still has a chance to edge a little further north than recently modeled. It's not an overwhelming amount of cooling in the column that is needed, in my opinion. It's latitude of the 7H-5H low that I think is important fgen significant snow N of I80.

 

For reference check some Novak, Grumm, Bosart, Evans etc on banding, 

 

 

At this point I'm rooting for it to stay south and avoid rain but I could see up around I84 where you'd want a north trend. The 12z CMC isn't actually that far off from probably being a little interesting north of NYC/SNE if it bombed out a bit sooner.  The air mass is pretty horrendous though even for places North and West.