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The next 8 days are averaging      43degs.(38/49) or +7.

Month to date is      31.7[-2.3].          Should be      36.7[+2.6] by the 16th.

Reached   42 here yesterday at 4pm.

Big Cool Down Coming:           Fooled Ya.          Can not get below freezing even.

1675836000-rYLsbs2Hheg.png

 

39*(78%RH) here at 6am.        44* at 9am.        46* at 9:30am.       47* at 10am.       48* at Noon.       50* at 2pm.      52* at 2:30pm.      53* at 3pm.    Reached 56* at 4pm.     54* at 5pm.       45* at 11pm.

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1 hour ago, s2sailorlis said:

as an observer here i can't add anything to this discussion other than, warm and no snow means..less use of oil for heating, but concerned with Reservoir water levels should we have hot/bone dry summer again...

As long as it doesn't turn very dry heading into spring we should be fine

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14 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Bluewave, Don, etc; is NYC approaching any kind of record for number of DJF days above freezing, or without lows going below freezing at all? Curious about that. Thank you guys. 

First place for least number of days with a low temperature at or below freezing. Fifth place for number of days with highs above freezing.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Number of Days Min Temperature <= 32 Dec 1 to Feb 8
Missing Count
1 2023-02-08 24 1
2 2016-02-08 25 0
- 2002-02-08 25 0
3 2012-02-08 26 0
- 1932-02-08 26 0
4 2020-02-08 27 0
- 2017-02-08 27 0
- 1998-02-08 27 0
- 1869-02-08 27 31


 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Number of Days Max Temperature > 32 Dec 1 to Feb 8
Missing Count
1 1998-02-08 69 0
2 2020-02-08 68 0
- 2008-02-08 68 0
- 1953-02-08 68 0
- 1932-02-08 68 0
3 2002-02-08 67 0
- 1993-02-08 67 0
4 1950-02-08 66 1
5 2023-02-08 65 1
- 2017-02-08 65 0
- 2012-02-08 65 0
- 1991-02-08 65 0
- 1975-02-08 65 0
- 1937-02-08 65 0
- 1919-02-08 65 0
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36 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

A nasty cold spring awaits us

 This wouldn't surprise me at all for at least the first half of March should the upcoming (very likely major) SSW propagate downward into the troposphere to a significant degree. That propagation chance is pretty high as of now based on the Scandinavian-Greenland index (SLP difference) peak that just occurred late Monday. It appears to have exceeded the threshold of 40 mb. You can go here to learn about the S-G index/dipole and the 40 mb threshold:

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019JD030940

 So, with good odds of a significant downward propagation, I'm currently expecting a significant drop in the AO (and probably also the NAO) to start most likely either during the last few days of Feb or first few days of March. It wouldn't surprise me at all if March were to be snowy in much of the E US, but that's highly speculative at this early point. If the models were to not forecast the AO to start dropping significantly by ~March 5th or soon afterward, I'd only then start to think the SSW was likely not going to propagate strongly downward.

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1 hour ago, vegan_edible said:

End of the GFS shows a little cool down, but at this point I kinda wanna just wrap this up, get some summer heat going then a productive december... thatd be cool

You could want, but thats not how this works.

You will likely have a cool, rainy/snowy, shitty March and April.

 

That’s how this season ends…

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43 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Hey could you make one of these for Baltimore if you have time?

Warmest departures have been further north this winter so Baltimore is running cooler relative to their rankings.


6137104C-5DE3-4559-9E94-3B3E6187DA3E.gif.5514e9e9bd9559661a594cc617db15ef.gif

Time Series Summary for Baltimore Area, MD (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Dec 1 to Feb 7
Missing Count
1 1932-02-07 46.0 0
2 1890-02-07 44.8 0
3 1950-02-07 43.6 0
4 1933-02-07 41.6 0
5 1937-02-07 41.3 0
6 1949-02-07 41.2 0
7 1913-02-07 40.9 0
8 2020-02-07 40.7 0
- 1947-02-07 40.7 0
- 1880-02-07 40.7 0
9 2012-02-07 40.6 0
10 2016-02-07 40.5 0
11 2002-02-07 40.2 0
12 2023-02-07 40.1 0
- 1924-02-07 40.1 0


 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Dec 1 to Feb 7
Missing Count
1 2016-02-07 42.8 0
2 1932-02-07 41.5 0
3 2002-02-07 41.4 0
4 2012-02-07 40.5 0
5 2023-02-07 40.0 0
6 1950-02-07 39.8 2
7 1991-02-07 39.6 0
8 2020-02-07 39.3 0
9 1998-02-07 39.1 0
- 1933-02-07 39.1 0
10 1999-02-07 38.9 0

 


 

Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Dec 1 to Feb 7
Missing Count
1 2016-02-07 23.1 0
2 2021-02-07 22.7 0
3 2023-02-07 20.6 0
4 1958-02-07 19.4 0
5 2006-02-07 19.2 0
- 2002-02-07 19.2 0
6 2011-02-07 18.9 0
7 2020-02-07 18.6 0
8 1983-02-07 18.4 0
9 2010-02-07 18.2 0
10 1997-02-07 18.1 0

 

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34 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Warmest departures have been further north this winter so Baltimore is running cooler relative to their rankings.


6137104C-5DE3-4559-9E94-3B3E6187DA3E.gif.5514e9e9bd9559661a594cc617db15ef.gif

Time Series Summary for Baltimore Area, MD (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Dec 1 to Feb 7
Missing Count
1 1932-02-07 46.0 0
2 1890-02-07 44.8 0
3 1950-02-07 43.6 0
4 1933-02-07 41.6 0
5 1937-02-07 41.3 0
6 1949-02-07 41.2 0
7 1913-02-07 40.9 0
8 2020-02-07 40.7 0
- 1947-02-07 40.7 0
- 1880-02-07 40.7 0
9 2012-02-07 40.6 0
10 2016-02-07 40.5 0
11 2002-02-07 40.2 0
12 2023-02-07 40.1 0
- 1924-02-07 40.1 0


 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Dec 1 to Feb 7
Missing Count
1 2016-02-07 42.8 0
2 1932-02-07 41.5 0
3 2002-02-07 41.4 0
4 2012-02-07 40.5 0
5 2023-02-07 40.0 0
6 1950-02-07 39.8 2
7 1991-02-07 39.6 0
8 2020-02-07 39.3 0
9 1998-02-07 39.1 0
- 1933-02-07 39.1 0
10 1999-02-07 38.9 0

 


 

Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Dec 1 to Feb 7
Missing Count
1 2016-02-07 23.1 0
2 2021-02-07 22.7 0
3 2023-02-07 20.6 0
4 1958-02-07 19.4 0
5 2006-02-07 19.2 0
- 2002-02-07 19.2 0
6 2011-02-07 18.9 0
7 2020-02-07 18.6 0
8 1983-02-07 18.4 0
9 2010-02-07 18.2 0
10 1997-02-07 18.1 0

 

Forget the exact temps, if you told me we'd only be running 0.1 degree colder than Baltimore for the winter I could've pretty much guaranteed a bad winter.

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3 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

Forget the exact temps, if you told me we'd only be running 0.1 degree colder than Baltimore for the winter I could've pretty much guaranteed a bad winter.

We have been getting more frequent winters similar to what is normal from DC to Baltimore. This translates into 40° months  during the winter and under 20” of snow. So more of a northern edge subtropical climate for us. Less of the colder winter continental climate that we used to get.

 

 

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Just now, bluewave said:

We have been getting more frequent winters similar to what is normal from DC to Baltimore. This translates into 40° months  during the winter and under 20” of snow. So more of a northern edge subtropical climate for us. Less of the colder winter continental climate that we used to get.

 

 

You'd expect DC and Baltimore to warm by about as much though. This seems to be a continuation of the recent theme of the biggest warm departures being north of us, just in the winter rather than the summer.

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17 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

You'd expect DC and Baltimore to warm by about as much though. This seems to be a continuation of the recent theme of the biggest warm departures being north of us, just in the winter rather than the summer.

Both locations have warmed about 5° during the winter since the late 1800s.

A18BEE12-98D6-4D7D-BF96-4F4B3BE85D3C.thumb.jpeg.113a6461089463f154326f5fcb1f17b7.jpeg

A54BD668-C51C-4D57-BDAF-9A489A62C3CE.thumb.jpeg.42aac1a3dd7f4354808d7d81105d314d.jpeg

 

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