s2sailorlis Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 as an observer here i can't add anything to this discussion other than, warm and no snow means..less use of oil for heating, but concerned with Reservoir water levels should we have hot/bone dry summer again... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 The next 8 days are averaging 43degs.(38/49) or +7. Month to date is 31.7[-2.3]. Should be 36.7[+2.6] by the 16th. Reached 42 here yesterday at 4pm. Big Cool Down Coming: Fooled Ya. Can not get below freezing even. 39*(78%RH) here at 6am. 44* at 9am. 46* at 9:30am. 47* at 10am. 48* at Noon. 50* at 2pm. 52* at 2:30pm. 53* at 3pm. Reached 56* at 4pm. 54* at 5pm. 45* at 11pm. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 It's already 48 here. Think we blow pass the forecasted high of 52 at ewr 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 I’m near EWR right now and it’s unbelievably mild already. Feels absolutely like spring. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Where is winter? Seemingly nowhere near the New York City-Philadelphia areas. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Beautiful outside. Beats rain and 40’s everyday like January. Get out and enjoy! Next week looks warmer 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 8, 2023 Author Share Posted February 8, 2023 53 minutes ago, SRRTA22 said: It's already 48 here. Think we blow pass the forecasted high of 52 at ewr 55 or 56 most likely 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 8, 2023 Author Share Posted February 8, 2023 1 hour ago, s2sailorlis said: as an observer here i can't add anything to this discussion other than, warm and no snow means..less use of oil for heating, but concerned with Reservoir water levels should we have hot/bone dry summer again... As long as it doesn't turn very dry heading into spring we should be fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 60-70 next week 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Had to run over to Bayonne and it feels much cooler than EWR. Haven’t checked temps or anything but noticeable difference in air feel, unless I’m mistaken. May be due to breeze? Feels windier here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Bluewave, Don, etc; is NYC approaching any kind of record for number of DJF days above freezing, or without lows going below freezing at all? Curious about that. Thank you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 14 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said: Bluewave, Don, etc; is NYC approaching any kind of record for number of DJF days above freezing, or without lows going below freezing at all? Curious about that. Thank you guys. First place for least number of days with a low temperature at or below freezing. Fifth place for number of days with highs above freezing. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Min Temperature <= 32 Dec 1 to Feb 8 Missing Count 1 2023-02-08 24 1 2 2016-02-08 25 0 - 2002-02-08 25 0 3 2012-02-08 26 0 - 1932-02-08 26 0 4 2020-02-08 27 0 - 2017-02-08 27 0 - 1998-02-08 27 0 - 1869-02-08 27 31 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Max Temperature > 32 Dec 1 to Feb 8 Missing Count 1 1998-02-08 69 0 2 2020-02-08 68 0 - 2008-02-08 68 0 - 1953-02-08 68 0 - 1932-02-08 68 0 3 2002-02-08 67 0 - 1993-02-08 67 0 4 1950-02-08 66 1 5 2023-02-08 65 1 - 2017-02-08 65 0 - 2012-02-08 65 0 - 1991-02-08 65 0 - 1975-02-08 65 0 - 1937-02-08 65 0 - 1919-02-08 65 0 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 2 hours ago, Allsnow said: 60-70 next week Not that high. Pacific jet is too fast. Not seeing wound up cutters slowly moving east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 2 hours ago, Allsnow said: 60-70 next week End of the GFS shows a little cool down, but at this point I kinda wanna just wrap this up, get some summer heat going then a productive december... thatd be cool 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 8, 2023 Author Share Posted February 8, 2023 11 minutes ago, vegan_edible said: End of the GFS shows a little cool down, but at this point I kinda wanna just wrap this up, get some summer heat going then a productive december... thatd be cool A nasty cold spring awaits us 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Winter 2022-2023 is on course to rank among the five warmest winters on record in New York City: 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 36 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: A nasty cold spring awaits us This wouldn't surprise me at all for at least the first half of March should the upcoming (very likely major) SSW propagate downward into the troposphere to a significant degree. That propagation chance is pretty high as of now based on the Scandinavian-Greenland index (SLP difference) peak that just occurred late Monday. It appears to have exceeded the threshold of 40 mb. You can go here to learn about the S-G index/dipole and the 40 mb threshold: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019JD030940 So, with good odds of a significant downward propagation, I'm currently expecting a significant drop in the AO (and probably also the NAO) to start most likely either during the last few days of Feb or first few days of March. It wouldn't surprise me at all if March were to be snowy in much of the E US, but that's highly speculative at this early point. If the models were to not forecast the AO to start dropping significantly by ~March 5th or soon afterward, I'd only then start to think the SSW was likely not going to propagate strongly downward. 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 20 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Winter 2022-2023 is on course to rank among the five warmest winters on record in New York City: Hey could you make one of these for Baltimore if you have time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 52F here as of 1:30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 55 back here in Toms River / Manchester. Home early today, starting a nice vacation week. If only snow wasn’t seemingly a metaphysical impossibility this weekend … 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 51 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: A nasty cold spring awaits us Meh. We will still get our 6 months of 90 degree weather 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 1 hour ago, vegan_edible said: End of the GFS shows a little cool down, but at this point I kinda wanna just wrap this up, get some summer heat going then a productive december... thatd be cool You could want, but thats not how this works. You will likely have a cool, rainy/snowy, shitty March and April. That’s how this season ends… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 2009-10 was perfect - winter in December , then one of biggest Februarys all time.. big , warm storm ~ March 7/8 then torch away into a perfect Spring and tons of 90s with much lower DewPoints than recent years . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 55 degrees here. Beautiful day ... time to get outside and enjoy it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 43 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Hey could you make one of these for Baltimore if you have time? Warmest departures have been further north this winter so Baltimore is running cooler relative to their rankings. Time Series Summary for Baltimore Area, MD (ThreadEx)Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Dec 1 to Feb 7 Missing Count 1 1932-02-07 46.0 0 2 1890-02-07 44.8 0 3 1950-02-07 43.6 0 4 1933-02-07 41.6 0 5 1937-02-07 41.3 0 6 1949-02-07 41.2 0 7 1913-02-07 40.9 0 8 2020-02-07 40.7 0 - 1947-02-07 40.7 0 - 1880-02-07 40.7 0 9 2012-02-07 40.6 0 10 2016-02-07 40.5 0 11 2002-02-07 40.2 0 12 2023-02-07 40.1 0 - 1924-02-07 40.1 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Dec 1 to Feb 7 Missing Count 1 2016-02-07 42.8 0 2 1932-02-07 41.5 0 3 2002-02-07 41.4 0 4 2012-02-07 40.5 0 5 2023-02-07 40.0 0 6 1950-02-07 39.8 2 7 1991-02-07 39.6 0 8 2020-02-07 39.3 0 9 1998-02-07 39.1 0 - 1933-02-07 39.1 0 10 1999-02-07 38.9 0 Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx)Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Dec 1 to Feb 7 Missing Count 1 2016-02-07 23.1 0 2 2021-02-07 22.7 0 3 2023-02-07 20.6 0 4 1958-02-07 19.4 0 5 2006-02-07 19.2 0 - 2002-02-07 19.2 0 6 2011-02-07 18.9 0 7 2020-02-07 18.6 0 8 1983-02-07 18.4 0 9 2010-02-07 18.2 0 10 1997-02-07 18.1 0 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 34 minutes ago, bluewave said: Warmest departures have been further north this winter so Baltimore is running cooler relative to their rankings. Time Series Summary for Baltimore Area, MD (ThreadEx)Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Dec 1 to Feb 7 Missing Count 1 1932-02-07 46.0 0 2 1890-02-07 44.8 0 3 1950-02-07 43.6 0 4 1933-02-07 41.6 0 5 1937-02-07 41.3 0 6 1949-02-07 41.2 0 7 1913-02-07 40.9 0 8 2020-02-07 40.7 0 - 1947-02-07 40.7 0 - 1880-02-07 40.7 0 9 2012-02-07 40.6 0 10 2016-02-07 40.5 0 11 2002-02-07 40.2 0 12 2023-02-07 40.1 0 - 1924-02-07 40.1 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Dec 1 to Feb 7 Missing Count 1 2016-02-07 42.8 0 2 1932-02-07 41.5 0 3 2002-02-07 41.4 0 4 2012-02-07 40.5 0 5 2023-02-07 40.0 0 6 1950-02-07 39.8 2 7 1991-02-07 39.6 0 8 2020-02-07 39.3 0 9 1998-02-07 39.1 0 - 1933-02-07 39.1 0 10 1999-02-07 38.9 0 Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx)Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Dec 1 to Feb 7 Missing Count 1 2016-02-07 23.1 0 2 2021-02-07 22.7 0 3 2023-02-07 20.6 0 4 1958-02-07 19.4 0 5 2006-02-07 19.2 0 - 2002-02-07 19.2 0 6 2011-02-07 18.9 0 7 2020-02-07 18.6 0 8 1983-02-07 18.4 0 9 2010-02-07 18.2 0 10 1997-02-07 18.1 0 Forget the exact temps, if you told me we'd only be running 0.1 degree colder than Baltimore for the winter I could've pretty much guaranteed a bad winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 3 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: Forget the exact temps, if you told me we'd only be running 0.1 degree colder than Baltimore for the winter I could've pretty much guaranteed a bad winter. We have been getting more frequent winters similar to what is normal from DC to Baltimore. This translates into 40° months during the winter and under 20” of snow. So more of a northern edge subtropical climate for us. Less of the colder winter continental climate that we used to get. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Just now, bluewave said: We have been getting more frequent winters similar to what is normal from DC to Baltimore. This translates into 40° months during the winter and under 20” of snow. So more of a northern edge subtropical climate for us. Less of the colder winter continental climate that we used to get. You'd expect DC and Baltimore to warm by about as much though. This seems to be a continuation of the recent theme of the biggest warm departures being north of us, just in the winter rather than the summer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 17 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: You'd expect DC and Baltimore to warm by about as much though. This seems to be a continuation of the recent theme of the biggest warm departures being north of us, just in the winter rather than the summer. Both locations have warmed about 5° during the winter since the late 1800s. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said: Hey could you make one of these for Baltimore if you have time? Here's Baltimore's: 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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