February 2023

[eduggs]

Not saying the GFS or EC will happen, but big fail for the Mets and amateurs alike who obsess over fantasy pattern changes, long range anomaly charts, ENSO states, and stratospheric warming events. The never ending quest for a simple causal relationship to predict snowstorms coming far out in fantasy land has led to an atrophying of actual mid-range forecasting skills. "Patterns" don't produce local snowstorms. Particular combinations of synoptic features do.

 

[eduggs]

7 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The Euro is probably closer to reality than the GFS...but the CMC/Icon idea of basically a miss or weak follow up wave is more likely.  The GFS failing to pull the entire baroclinic zone east and still taking a storm inland is probably not realistic at all

I agree with this. But there's a path there that would allow cold air to seep southward. Then a delayed wave, possibly a not-quite-squashed cutoff, could possibly rotate some precipitation back into the cold air before everything gets shunted east. I much prefer a miss east to a torched cutter followed by cold front. In this preferred scenario, a longshot sharper wave could give us something.

[CIK62]

This is the only 24 Hour Period that has any chance of leaving an inch+:          The 20th  +/- a day has a tiny chance too.

[eduggs]

16 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

This is the only 24 Hour Period that has any chance of leaving an inch+:          The 20th  +/- a day has a tiny chance too.

And that right there is our best day 5 map of the winter thus far 

[MJO812]

Everyone starting to hype up the strat warming event .

 

Maybe a wild March just like 2018?

[eduggs]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Everyone starting to hype up the strat warming event .

 

Maybe a wild March just like 2018?

Meteorologists are the least scientific of all the pseudo-sciences. It's a faith based "science."

Long range strat temp modeling has high uncertainty. The regional effect of strat warming is highly variable. The long term correlation between modeled strat warming events and regional winter outcomes is very low. We've seen this year after year. What have we learned?

[MJO812]

[Winterweatherlover]

It may definitely be wrong but the look in the gfs at hour 132 is the best look we’ve had all winter. 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said:

It may definitely be wrong but the look in the gfs at hour 132 is the best look we’ve had all winter. 

Yep

Nice ridge out west

 Nice high to the north 

[Stormlover74]

Cmc has nothing

[donsutherland1]

50 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Everyone starting to hype up the strat warming event .

 

Maybe a wild March just like 2018?

These are complex events. Much could go wrong. If the vortex splits, the larger piece could wind up in Eurasia. If there is no stratosphere-troposphere coupling, the desired colder outcome might not occur. I think we’ll have to wait to see how things actually evolve. I hope things work out.

[Rtd208]

[eduggs]

0z GEFS mean shifted towards the CMC a bit. We need a sharp trof that cuts off like the OP GFS to have a shot with this.

[USCG RS]

1 hour ago, eduggs said:

Meteorologists are the least scientific of all the pseudo-sciences. It's a faith based "science." 

Oof. Rough take

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, eduggs said:

0z GEFS mean shifted towards the CMC a bit. We need a sharp trof that cuts off like the OP GFS to have a shot with this.

And the Euro just came in with nothing for us saturday. It just has some rain missing us well to the south friday night into saturday. It looks like the CMC now.

I know Walt has said many times that it's important to have CMC on board to be optimistic about a potential winter event. That model has been very good in the last few years, and I think it's likely leading the way again for saturday. Probably nothing for us, but we'll keep an eye on it just in case. 

[EasternLI]

The purpose of the long range pattern discussions is not to identify any individual storm systems. I personally think it's a misinterpretation to think of it in that way. You can get snow events in a bad pattern. Nobody has said that can't happen. I certainly haven't. The thing is, favorable longwave patterns offer an easier path to accomplish the certain combinations of synoptic features we're all in search of. That is the reason why they are often discussed. Not to identify anything specific. At least it shouldn't be. It's simply an attempt to identify windows where it's easier to find something specific. It's really two separate things, in my view. 

[wdrag]

We all saw the GFS continue with its ECWS with it's past 3 cycles (cyclically consistent) 18z/6, 00z/7, 06z/7.  EC/GGEM and those ensembles are/were not excited. I'm waiting another day before buying in.  Part of the upper air has been there but I don't like trends showing an esewd peeling to the 500MB trough, which would give NC/VA the best shot at some snow. I'll be off line all day and still looking for late Feb or March as a better fit for us (kick the can?)

[donsutherland1]

New York City's snow season futility rankings through February 6th:

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will be variably cloudy and seasonably cool. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 40s in most areas. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 41°

Newark: 44°

Philadelphia: 47°

Milder air will return tomorrow.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 40.7°; 15-Year: 40.8°

Newark: 30-Year: 41.4°; 15-Year: 41.5°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 42.6°; 15-Year: 42.5°

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging      40degs.(35/45) or +5.

Reached 51 yesterday at 1pm.

Today:    40-43, wind e. to s. to w., clouds late, steady near 40 overnight.

Getting closer to the real thing---so fantasy outputs becoming more likely:     No Ens. support for it.

33*(55%RH) here at 6am.        32* at 7am.        36* at 9am.      38* at 10am.       39* at Noon.       40* at 1pm.      41* at 2pm.

 

[Dark Star]

6 hours ago, USCG RS said:

Oof. Rough take

Pseudo science?

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Pseudo science?

inexact science is probably  a better term

 

[hudsonvalley21]

8 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Yep

Nice ridge out west

 Nice high to the north 

06z run on tropical tidbits.

 

[Volcanic Winter]

Cool. If we get something, great. If not, just more of the same. 

In a year like this I’ll take the SSW and roll the dice every time, though. We’ll see what happens. 

[bluewave]

9 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Everyone starting to hype up the strat warming event .

 

Maybe a wild March just like 2018?

Main difference between now and 2018 is we have much less seasonal snowfall before this one. So the background pattern has been less conducive for snow than 17-18 through early February. SSWs following less snowy periods like 2001, 2009, and 2019 didn’t produce as much snow. So the seasonal pattern before the SSW can be just as important. Just look at the list below. So a SSW can’t reorder the whole seasonal pattern. But it may be our best chance for accumulating snow.

https://csl.noaa.gov/groups/csl8/sswcompendium/majorevents.html

 

 

[Nibor]

34 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Pseudo science?

Ah yes. Meteorology, the pseudo science that is lumped in with the likes of crypto zoology and astrology. 

[JTA66]

9 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Everyone starting to hype up the strat warming event .

 

Maybe a wild March just like 2018?

fwiw HM thinks it's a nothing burger, so don't get your hopes up.

[Brian5671]

20 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

fwiw HM thinks it's a nothing burger, so don't get your hopes up.

[bluewave]

50° days have become more common around lows under 20° or 10° since 2005.
 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
2023-02-03	35	11
2023-02-04	27	3
2023-02-05	49	27
2023-02-06	52	34

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
2022-12-23	58	8
2022-12-24	15	7

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
2022-02-14	25	16
2022-02-15	30	16
2022-02-16	49	28
2022-02-17	68	49
2022-02-18	63	27

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
2020-12-19	32	20
2020-12-20	40	31
2020-12-21	46	37
2020-12-22	46	38
2020-12-23	45	36
2020-12-24	59	43
2020-12-25	61	29

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
2019-01-30	35	6
2019-01-31	16	2
2019-02-01	21	11
2019-02-02	34	16
2019-02-03	53	33
2019-02-04	61	41
2019-02-05	65	44

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
2018-01-05	19	9
2018-01-06	13	6
2018-01-07	18	5
2018-01-08	31	17
2018-01-09	44	30
2018-01-10	43	30
2018-01-11	53	41
2018-01-12	61	44
2018-01-13	58	19

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
2017-12-19	55	45
2017-12-20	51	34
2017-12-21	39	32
2017-12-22	50	35
2017-12-23	48	38
2017-12-24	41	36
2017-12-25	38	28
2017-12-26	28	23
2017-12-27	24	17
2017-12-28	18	11
2017-12-29	22	11
2017-12-30	23	17
2017-12-31	21	9

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
2017-01-07	26	20
2017-01-08	25	16
2017-01-09	23	14
2017-01-10	46	21
2017-01-11	52	42
2017-01-12	66	47
2017-01-13	62	32

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
2016-02-13	22	6
2016-02-14	15	-1
2016-02-15	35	13
2016-02-16	54	35
2016-02-17	39	35
2016-02-18	36	27
2016-02-19	39	24
2016-02-20	61	39
2016-02-21	55	44
2016-02-22	52	38

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
2016-01-04	36	14
2016-01-05	29	11
2016-01-06	41	25
2016-01-07	46	31
2016-01-08	46	31
2016-01-09	47	40
2016-01-10	59	40

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
2015-01-04	56	41
2015-01-05	49	21
2015-01-06	22	19
2015-01-07	23	9
2015-01-08	21	8
2015-01-09	33	19
2015-01-10	23	16
2015-01-11	37	18

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
2014-02-22	54	40
2014-02-23	54	43
2014-02-24	44	27
2014-02-25	33	24
2014-02-26	31	20
2014-02-27	34	14
2014-02-28	24	9

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
2014-01-03	18	9
2014-01-04	29	8
2014-01-05	40	27
2014-01-06	55	19
2014-01-07	19	4
2014-01-08	22	9
2014-01-09	32	22
2014-01-10	37	30
2014-01-11	58	37
2014-01-12	54	38
2014-01-13	51	37
2014-01-14	52	44

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
2013-12-21	65	51
2013-12-22	71	61
2013-12-23	64	42
2013-12-24	42	26
2013-12-25	31	19

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
2013-02-15	55	37
2013-02-16	41	31
2013-02-17	32	18
2013-02-18	35	17

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
2013-01-19	51	30
2013-01-20	53	30
2013-01-21	32	26
2013-01-22	27	13
2013-01-23	20	11
2013-01-24	22	12
2013-01-25	24	13
2013-01-26	27	15
2013-01-27	34	19
2013-01-28	36	29
2013-01-29	49	36
2013-01-30	59	39
2013-01-31	61	30

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
2012-01-03	33	15
2012-01-04	27	13
2012-01-05	40	27
2012-01-06	53	35
2012-01-07	62	46

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
2011-02-09	29	15
2011-02-10	29	22
2011-02-11	37	19
2011-02-12	40	30
2011-02-13	46	28
2011-02-14	58	37
2011-02-15	37	25
2011-02-16	48	26
2011-02-17	63	46
2011-02-18	67	46
2011-02-19	54	23
2011-02-20	40	21
2011-02-21	37	24
2011-02-22	36	16

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
2010-01-24	50	32
2010-01-25	57	49
2010-01-26	49	35
2010-01-27	39	31
2010-01-28	42	20
2010-01-29	23	16
2010-01-30	20	13
2010-01-31	30	14

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
2009-02-05	23	12
2009-02-06	32	15
2009-02-07	50	28
2009-02-08	58	38
2009-02-09	45	33
2009-02-10	50	35
2009-02-11	65	45

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
2008-12-15	67	48
2008-12-16	58	30
2008-12-17	42	32
2008-12-18	42	36
2008-12-19	37	29
2008-12-20	31	22
2008-12-21	37	25
2008-12-22	27	13

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
2008-02-05	52	38
2008-02-06	68	41
2008-02-07	49	38
2008-02-08	45	35
2008-02-09	44	37
2008-02-10	44	15
2008-02-11	24	10
2008-02-12	31	17

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
2008-01-02	38	17
2008-01-03	20	12
2008-01-04	36	16
2008-01-05	43	32
2008-01-06	50	36
2008-01-07	62	45
2008-01-08	64	53
2008-01-09	64	47

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
2006-12-01	70	49
2006-12-02	49	39
2006-12-03	46	35
2006-12-04	41	31
2006-12-05	37	29
2006-12-06	49	31
2006-12-07	53	26
2006-12-08	29	18

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
2006-02-15	56	36
2006-02-16	59	40
2006-02-17	58	32
2006-02-18	35	15
2006-02-19	30	15

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
2006-01-15	32	16
2006-01-16	32	16
2006-01-17	44	26
2006-01-18	58	36
2006-01-19	47	34
2006-01-20	61	42
2006-01-21	63	38

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
2005-02-15	56	46
2005-02-16	54	35
2005-02-17	38	31
2005-02-18	31	18
2005-02-19	32	16

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
2005-01-13	59	38
2005-01-14	66	34
2005-01-15	34	26
2005-01-16	31	27
2005-01-17	28	18
2005-01-18	18	9
2005-01-19	26	9
2005-01-20	30	20
2005-01-21	20	9
2005-01-22	25	6
2005-01-23	26	9
2005-01-24	24	8
2005-01-25	33	20
2005-01-26	37	17
2005-01-27	18	9
2005-01-28	22	5

 

[Volcanic Winter]

36 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Ah yes. Meteorology, the pseudo science that is lumped in with the likes of crypto zoology and astrology. 

Don’t forget Youtube-ology. That’s when you make a YouTube channel with -science in the name and make videos about how Yellowstone is going to blow any day now and wipe out the US.