February 2023

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

6 hours ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

your keyboard to Mother Natures ears,,,the only thing is ( for snow lovers  ) March snow is gone a day later but after enduring this winter I will gladly take any snowstorm even a March snowstorm

I had snow on the ground everyday in March 2018 and even into the first several days of April. Of course it took 50 inches of snow in total from March 2 to April 3 to make that happen. Unfortunately I doubt that’s in the cards again. 

[JerseyWx]

12 hours ago, rgwp96 said:

Got down to -.4 here 

Yep, -1° up by me.  Pretty crazy how we ended up below zero surrounded by warmth like this.

[eduggs]

0z ICON is significantly warmer and wetter than the previous two runs. Aloft it shifted towards the model consensus. But it still manages to get flakes in the air on Saturday for most and probably has the best mid-level synoptic signature of any threat we've seen all winter. It's almost certainly showing a miss for most locally, but it's honestly not too far off from something better.

[Stormlover74]

Gfs is 50s and rain

[eduggs]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Gfs is 50s and rain

The GFS is the warmest of 0z so far. CMC, ICON, and UK are colder. Considering the lead in wave pushes warmth to Ontario, this essentially would have to be a rain to snow scenario best case. Two viable options for snow are a flat trof (CMC) or a high amplitude cutoff.  I think a stronger cutoff would be most helpful to wrap in some cold air, but models are not very supportive. The GFS has the right trof structure but the mid-level center tracks too far north. The 18z ICON had something maybe more workable, but it was an outlier.

[USCG RS]

3 hours ago, JerseyWx said:

Yep, -1° up by me.  Pretty crazy how we ended up below zero surrounded by warmth like this.

To be fair.. Something like this happens towards March and it could be a blockbuster set up for us. 

[donsutherland1]

New York City's snow season futility rankings through February 5th:

[MJO812]

5 hours ago, eduggs said:

The GFS is the warmest of 0z so far. CMC, ICON, and UK are colder. Considering the lead in wave pushes warmth to Ontario, this essentially would have to be a rain to snow scenario best case. Two viable options for snow are a flat trof (CMC) or a high amplitude cutoff.  I think a stronger cutoff would be most helpful to wrap in some cold air, but models are not very supportive. The GFS has the right trof structure but the mid-level center tracks too far north. The 18z ICON had something maybe more workable, but it was an outlier.

It's over 

[LoboLeader1]

Topped out at 46F yesterday, currently at 28.

[SnoSki14]

What a torch on the models. 60+ now showing up easily. Warm & wet 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will be partly sunny and mild. High temperatures will reach the upper 40s and lower 50s in most areas. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 49°

Newark: 51°

Philadelphia: 51°

It will be briefly cooler tomorrow before much milder air returns.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 40.6°; 15-Year: 40.6°

Newark: 30-Year: 41.2°; 15-Year: 41.4°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 42.4°; 15-Year: 42.4°

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging      41degs.(36/47) or +6.

Reached 47 here yesterday at 8pm.

Today:    47-51, wind nw., p. sunny, 34 tomorrow AM.

If the CFSv2 only Had a Brain:

42*(69%RH) here at 6am.    45* at 9am.      50* at 11am.      50* at Noon.      51* at 1pm.      49* at 2pm.      46* at 4pm.       43* at 8pm.       39* at 10pm.

[Volcanic Winter]

I guess if it’s real the models will start to have to pick up on the SSW eventually, yes? Based on the earlier charts it looks like the SPV winds slow down and potentially reverse sometime next week. When would that potentially be felt in the troposphere, probably the beginning of March? I know it varies, guess I’m just asking for any additional info on it. 

To be explicit, I’m asking about the SSW because it’s meteorologically interesting to me, not because I have any expectation of a late season “save” or anything. I’d be thrilled if we can even get a pity advisory event before spring proper, but I’m more or less resigned to our snowless season. I do find this stuff fascinating though (SSW events), and I’m here because I enjoy learning things. 

[EastonSN+]

I feel like the determining factor as to whether or not we receive a late season wintry period will be strength of this wave when it gets to 8/1/2....will it just die again right before 8 like the last one?

[SnoSki14]

51 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

The next 8 days are averaging      41degs.(36/47) or +6.

Reached 47 here yesterday at 8pm.

Today:    47-51, wind nw., p. sunny, 34 tomorrow AM.

If the CFSv2 only Had a Brain:

42*(69%RH) here at 6am.

For that to verify the last 10 days of this period would have to be extremely cold 

[wdrag]

Last 10 days of Feb:  I like the trend of the GEFS 500MB... more and more looks to build heights over AK and some 850MB ensemble guidance is showing very cold air for that late Feb period building across sw Canada and possibly a little of that spilling EAST to the Great Lakes and Northeast.    I like this. It's pretty clear to me in the guidance that mid month begins a cooling in the northern USA. I can't make any inferences beyond Feb, cause long ranging is so difficult but I do know we need an AK ridge to pool-build dense cold air in Canada.  If other ensembles trend this way, I'll be thrilled...especially if they hold as we get closer to Feb 20.

[SACRUS]

Records:

 

Highs:

LGA: 69 (2008)
EWR: 69 (2008)
NYC: 68 (2008)

 

Lows:

NYC: -4 (1895)
EWR: 4 (1995)
LGA: 4 (1995)

 

Historical:

 

1807 - It was the famous "Cold Friday" in the Midwest and South. The temperature did not rise above zero in Ohio and Kentucky. (David Ludlum)

1978 - A massive nor'easter buried the cities of the northeastern U.S. Storm totals included 18 inches at New York City, 16 inches at Philadelphia, and 14 inches at Baltimore. The Boston MA area received 25 to 30 inches in "The Great New England Blizzard" and the mayor outlawed travel in the city for an entire week. (David Ludlum)

1987 - Brownsville, TX, was deluged with seven inches of rain in just two hours, and flooding in some parts of the city was worse than that caused by Hurricane Beulah in 1967. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Arctic cold invaded the south central and eastern U.S. Sixteen cities reported new record low temperatures for the date. Squalls in the Great Lakes Region produced a foot of snow at Arcade NY in three hours. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Forty-one cities in the western U.S. reported new record low temperatures for the date. Lows of -30 degrees at Ely NV and -33 degrees at Richfield UT were all-time records. Morning lows of 31 degrees at San Francisco CA and -15 degrees at Reno NV were records for February. Logan Canyon UT was the cold spot in the nation with a low of 54 degrees below zero, and Craig CO hit 51 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - A second cold front brought more heavy snow to the high elevations of Oregon, with 12 inches reported at Sunset Summit. Ten inches of snow blanketed Crater Lake and Mount Bachelor. Heavy snow also blanketed northeastern Nevada and parts of Washington State. In Nevada, up to a foot of snow was reported between Spring Creek and Lamoille. Stevens Pass WA received 14 inches of snow in 24 hours. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2010: On February 5-6, a severe nor'easter, commonly referred to as Snowmageddon, impacted the east coast from North Carolina to New York. Some snowfall amounts include; 32.9 inches at Washington Dulles International Airport; 28.5 inches at the Philadelphia International Airport; 21.1 inches at the Pittsburgh International Airport; 18.2 in Atlantic City; Trace in Central Park. Click HERE for more information from the Capital Weather Gang. 

 

[bkviking]

48 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Records:

 

Highs:

LGA: 69 (2008)
EWR: 69 (2008)
NYC: 68 (2008)

 

Lows:

NYC: -4 (1895)
EWR: 4 (1995)
LGA: 4 (1995)

 

Historical:

 

1807 - It was the famous "Cold Friday" in the Midwest and South. The temperature did not rise above zero in Ohio and Kentucky. (David Ludlum)

1978 - A massive nor'easter buried the cities of the northeastern U.S. Storm totals included 18 inches at New York City, 16 inches at Philadelphia, and 14 inches at Baltimore. The Boston MA area received 25 to 30 inches in "The Great New England Blizzard" and the mayor outlawed travel in the city for an entire week. (David Ludlum)

1987 - Brownsville, TX, was deluged with seven inches of rain in just two hours, and flooding in some parts of the city was worse than that caused by Hurricane Beulah in 1967. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Arctic cold invaded the south central and eastern U.S. Sixteen cities reported new record low temperatures for the date. Squalls in the Great Lakes Region produced a foot of snow at Arcade NY in three hours. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Forty-one cities in the western U.S. reported new record low temperatures for the date. Lows of -30 degrees at Ely NV and -33 degrees at Richfield UT were all-time records. Morning lows of 31 degrees at San Francisco CA and -15 degrees at Reno NV were records for February. Logan Canyon UT was the cold spot in the nation with a low of 54 degrees below zero, and Craig CO hit 51 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - A second cold front brought more heavy snow to the high elevations of Oregon, with 12 inches reported at Sunset Summit. Ten inches of snow blanketed Crater Lake and Mount Bachelor. Heavy snow also blanketed northeastern Nevada and parts of Washington State. In Nevada, up to a foot of snow was reported between Spring Creek and Lamoille. Stevens Pass WA received 14 inches of snow in 24 hours. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2010: On February 5-6, a severe nor'easter, commonly referred to as Snowmageddon, impacted the east coast from North Carolina to New York. Some snowfall amounts include; 32.9 inches at Washington Dulles International Airport; 28.5 inches at the Philadelphia International Airport; 21.1 inches at the Pittsburgh International Airport; 18.2 in Atlantic City; Trace in Central Park. Click HERE for more information from the Capital Weather Gang. 

 

I thought Snowmageddon was the Feb 26 storm that I believe brought around 20" to NYC/LI but further north had rain? 

[coastalplainsnowman]

59 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

1807 - It was the famous "Cold Friday" in the Midwest and South. The temperature did not rise above zero in Ohio and Kentucky. (David Ludlum)

"Cold Friday."  The best part of this is how in 1807 there wasn't so much word inflation yet.  'Cold Friday' today would be 'Polar Vortex Arctic Blast Frigid Friday.'

[SACRUS]

18 minutes ago, bkviking said:

I thought Snowmageddon was the Feb 26 storm that I believe brought around 20" to NYC/LI but further north had rain? 

Feb 5/6 was referred to as snowmageddon. Sharp cutoff once north of Ocean county NJ.  

[Stormlover74]

46 minutes ago, bkviking said:

I thought Snowmageddon was the Feb 26 storm that I believe brought around 20" to NYC/LI but further north had rain? 

I think that was the snowicane

[weatherpruf]

51 minutes ago, bkviking said:

I thought Snowmageddon was the Feb 26 storm that I believe brought around 20" to NYC/LI but further north had rain? 

It was called the Snowicaine, and it wasn't 20 inches in the immediate NYC area; more like a foot. Some areas got the higher amounts but not CNJ. We had between 8-13 around Middlesex County; Woodbridge reported 8, Edison reports were of 13. It was decent but overall the whole winter was disappointing for us compared to the Mid Atlantic, but it was absolutely a great winter by this years standards....it was said that the NJ suburbs of NYC were " too far north for 2/6 and too far south for 2/26..." we made up for it the next year though. I think those big winters might just be over for us, but who knows. Certainly DC has had nothing like it since.

[Stormlover74]

6 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

It was called the Snowicaine, and it wasn't 20 inches in the immediate NYC area; more like a foot. Some areas got the higher amounts but not CNJ. We had between 8-13 around Middlesex County; Woodbridge reported 8, Edison reports were of 13. It was decent but overall the whole winter was disappointing for us compared to the Mid Atlantic, but it was absolutely a great winter by this years standards....it was said that the NJ suburbs of NYC were " too far north for 2/6 and too far south for 2/26..." we made up for it the next year though. I think those big winters might just be over for us, but who knows. Certainly DC has had nothing like it since.

Central Park got 20" for the snowicane storm. It's also their all time snowiest month despite nothing from the 5th-6th storm

[Great Snow 1717]

43 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

"Cold Friday."  The best part of this is how in 1807 there wasn't so much word inflation yet.  'Cold Friday' today would be 'Polar Vortex Arctic Blast Frigid Friday.'

Cold Friday in New England

https://newenglandhistoricalsociety.com/cold-friday-of-1810/

[EastonSN+]

4 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

It was called the Snowicaine, and it wasn't 20 inches in the immediate NYC area; more like a foot. Some areas got the higher amounts but not CNJ. We had between 8-13 around Middlesex County; Woodbridge reported 8, Edison reports were of 13. It was decent but overall the whole winter was disappointing for us compared to the Mid Atlantic, but it was absolutely a great winter by this years standards....it was said that the NJ suburbs of NYC were " too far north for 2/6 and too far south for 2/26..." we made up for it the next year though. I think those big winters might just be over for us, but who knows. Certainly DC has had nothing like it since.

I would never bet against multiple winters like that happening again. What evidence is pointing to them being extinct?

[WX-PA]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

Feb 5/6 was referred to as snowmageddon. Sharp cutoff once north of Ocean county NJ.  

Blizzard of 1978..the most snow I ever saw on Long Island..Measured 25 inches with 6 foot snow drifts. Still the greatest snowstorm in my life!! Today's the 45th anniversary..Cheers to the big one!  For Long Island and New England

[snywx]

1 hour ago, weatherpruf said:

It was called the Snowicaine, and it wasn't 20 inches in the immediate NYC area; more like a foot. Some areas got the higher amounts but not CNJ. We had between 8-13 around Middlesex County; Woodbridge reported 8, Edison reports were of 13. It was decent but overall the whole winter was disappointing for us compared to the Mid Atlantic, but it was absolutely a great winter by this years standards....it was said that the NJ suburbs of NYC were " too far north for 2/6 and too far south for 2/26..." we made up for it the next year though. I think those big winters might just be over for us, but who knows. Certainly DC has had nothing like it since.

Snowicane brought 30-40” of snow to Orange County while areas just E of the river toward CT had mostly rain with some backside snow. One of the greatest events I’ve witnessed here in OC. That month produced 50”+ for many areas here

[jm1220]

2 hours ago, bkviking said:

I thought Snowmageddon was the Feb 26 storm that I believe brought around 20" to NYC/LI but further north had rain? 

Yes 2/26/10. The storm tracked due north and eventually looped around so New England had all rain while NYC and northwest were crushed. I had about 10” after a ton of rain on western LI so I can believe NYC had 20” when they were all snow. And the snow I missed out on would’ve been very heavy. 

[Gravity Wave]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Central Park got 20" for the snowicane storm. It's also their all time snowiest month despite nothing from the 5th-6th storm

That's because they also got hit hard by the February 10 storm, which seems to be largely forgotten today despite being the most impressive event I've ever personally experienced (too young to remember 1996 and was in upstate NY for 2016). We got 18" of snow (after compaction, which was likely significant because the temp was 32 degrees for the whole storm) IMBY in Allentown in about 5 hours. It saved the winter for me since we got skunked by 12/19, 2/6 and Snowicane that year. I still wonder what would have happened if we'd had a better airmass for that storm or if it hadn't been in such a hurry to leave.

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

That's because they also got hit hard by the February 10 storm, which seems to be largely forgotten today despite being the most impressive event I've ever personally experienced (too young to remember 1996 and was in upstate NY for 2016). We got 18" of snow (after compaction, which was likely significant because the temp was 32 degrees for the whole storm) IMBY in Allentown in about 5 hours. It saved the winter for me since we got skunked by 12/19, 2/6 and Snowicane that year.

Yeah people forget about that storm. I had 14" and 30 for the month. Plus it was almost entirely a daytime storm with 2 to 3" rates though the blizzard conditions never materialized