February 2023

[Roger Smith]

It's interesting that no readings above 65 occurred between 7th and 14th inclusive. Perhaps this year will void that outcome. The record high for the 7th is particularly low-hanging and could go soon, you would think.I have also listed any other readings not (or no longer) record highs in the 65+ category. Also listed are any "warmest since" more ancient records (two from 1874 and 1890 as well as LYD 1880 have survived). 

 

February record high maxima and minima for NYC (Central Park) 

Date _____ Hi max ______ Hi min __________ Other maxima 65+ (and warmest since records set before 1980)

Feb 01 ___ 67 1989 ____ 50 1988 _________

Feb 02 ___ 59 1988 ____ 42 1952 

Feb 03 ___ 64 1991 ____ 46 1999,2006

Feb 04 ___ 68 1991 ____ 46 1991 _________

Feb 05 ___ 70 1991 ____ 51 1991 __________ also 68 in 1890, 65 in 2019

Feb 06 ___ 68 2008 ____ 42 1884,1938

Feb 07 ___ 56 2020 ____ 42 1904 __________previous record was 54 (1938)

Feb 08 ___ 62 2017 ____ 48 1965 

Feb 09 ___ 63 1990 ____ 46 2005

Feb 10 ___ 61 1990,2001_ 43 1999 

Feb 11 ___ 65 1960,2009 _50 1966 

Feb 12 ___ 62 1999,2018 _ 45 1966

Feb 13 ___ 64 1951 ____ 47 1880 

Feb 14 ___ 63 1946 ____ 50 1949 __________ 1949 was 59F, warmest since 1949 are 1990, 2011 58F

Feb 15 ___ 73 1949 ____ 49 1984 ___________ 69 in 1954, warmest since that 62 in 2018

Feb 16 ___ 71 1954 ____ 44 2002 ___________ warmest since 1954 was 60 in 1976 (also 62 in 1921)

Feb 17 ___ 68 2022 ____ 49 2022 ___________ also 67 in 1976

Feb 18 ___ 68 1981 ____ 48 1981 ____________ also 67 in 2011

Feb 19 ___ 66 1997 ____ 53 2017 ____________ also 65 in 2017

Feb 20 ___ 69 1930,39__48 1939 ____________ also 67 in 2018

Feb 21 ___ 78 2018 ____55 2018 _____________ also 68 in 1930, 67 in 1953

Feb 22 ___ 69 1997 ____ 46 1996 _____________also 66 in 1874, 1991

Feb 23 ___ 72 1874 ____ 55 1985 _____________ (warmest since 1874 was 70F in 1985, also 68F in 2022, 65F in 2017).

Feb 24 ___ 75 1985 ____ 58 2017 _____________ also 65 in 1930, 1961

Feb 25 ___ 75 1930 ____ 51 1930 _____________ also 70 in 1976, 67 in 1985

Feb 26 ___ 65 1890 ____ 49 1976 _____________ warmest since 1890 was 62 in 1951, 1976

Feb 27 ___ 72 1997 ____ 49 1976 _____________ also 68 in 1880, 67 in 1976, 66 in 1971

Feb 28 ___ 67 1976 ____ 47 1903,10,2017 ________ warmest since 1976 was 62 in 1997

Feb 29 ___ 69 1880 ____ 47 1896, 2016 ______ warmest since 1880 was 67 in 1976 (61 in 2016)

-- - - - - - - - - - - --

 

[SACRUS]

Record lows

Feb 4

NYC: 0 (1918)
EWR: 7 (1996)
JFK: 9 (1996)
LGA: 10 (1996)
ISPP: 10 (1996)

[NorthShoreWx]

The February 1943 cold spell wasn't in and out as fast as this one, but there are some parallels:

YEAR	Mon	Day	Precip	Max	Min	Snowfall	snowdepth
1943	2	11	0.42	51	28	0.1	0
1943	2	12	0	32	21	0	0
1943	2	13	0.62	39	25	3.4	2
1943	2	14	0	30	5	0	2
1943	2	15	0	8	-8	0	2
1943	2	16	0	22	4	0	1
1943	2	17	0.02	32	18	0.2	1
1943	2	18	0	30	12	0	1
1943	2	19	0	48	27	0	0
1943	2	20	0	63	40	0	0
1943	2	21	0	60	47	0	0
1943	2	22	0	61	40	0	0
1943	2	23	0	61	45	0	0
1943	2	24	0.11	62	39	0	0

 

Note: this was back in the days when the weather bureau bothered to record 0.1" snowfalls on rainy days.  

[NorthShoreWx]

30 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

It's fairly typical to get a cold snap like this here once or twice a winter at least, and actually have it last longer than one day. 12z GFS has it down to around 10 for NYC and LI on Sat AM, 0 would be the I-84 corridor. Any negative anomalies this cold brings will be gone and then some in a week. 

If the core of the coldest air was displaced a little farther to the SW, we'd be looking at forecasts of -10.  From that perspective, it's a near miss, but not a miss to our northeast.  Basically right in line with the tradition that the coldest eastern outbreaks of my lifetime have either centered to the northeast or the southwest.

[donsutherland1]

An Arctic cold front will move through the region late tonight. A few places could see a snow flurry or snow shower. Tomorrow will see the temperature fall throughout much of the day despite a return of sunshine. It will become increasingly windy.

The weekend will start off on a bitterly cold note with the mercury rising only into the upper teens and lower 20s during the daytime after a morning low in the single digits to low teens in New York City and possibly below zero outside the City.

In southern New England, Boston will likely see its first subzero temperature since January 7, 2018 when the temperature reached -2°. The potential exists for Boston to see a -5° or below temperature. The last time that happened was February 14, 2016 when the thermometer fell to -9°.

Select Record Lows for February 4th:
Boston: -2°, 1886
Bridgeport: 5°, 1955 and 1996
Montreal: -20°, 1963
New Haven: 4°, 1963 and 2011
New York City-JFK: 9°, 1955 nd 1996
New York City-LGA: 10°, 1955, 1963, 1978 and 1996
Portland: -19°, 1971
Providence: -2°, 1918
White Plains: 4°, 1978

As had been the case during the December Arctic shot in a winter of almost unbroken warmth, the upcoming Arctic shot will be a fleeting one. Just a day after the height of the cold, the temperature will rocket toward normal levels and then above normal levels a day later.

The potential exists for temperatures to run above to much above normal through mid-month. Both the CFSv2 and EPS weeklies show much above normal temperatures through the second week of February.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around January 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.70°C. La Niña conditions are beginning to fade and they should evolve to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring.

The SOI was +18.16 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.105 today.

On January 31 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.829 (RMM). The January 30-adjusted amplitude was 2.062 (RMM).

 

[donsutherland1]

The latest EPS weeklies:

[wdrag]

2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The latest EPS weeklies:

Any hope in the weeklies for the last week of Feb or March...  something akin to normal?

[SnoSki14]

17 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The latest EPS weeklies:

LA & Vegas are gonna be colder than us 

Not even joking. We'll be pushing 60+ while they stay in the 50s or colder 

[donsutherland1]

20 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Any hope in the weeklies for the last week of Feb or March...  something akin to normal?

They get better, but they don’t show colder than normal weeks. Hopefully, they will be colder in subsequent cycles.

[NorthShoreWx]

23z HRRR really hitting the CAA hard.  Has temps here already in the mid teens before noon on Friday with single digits just north.

[CIK62]

The GFS and the Controls for both are equally bad and virtually all identical.       I am rooting for another No. 1. {+6.2}      The cold start might kill any record but the cold does not arrive till March.        Chance of a new No. 1 Warm February at 10% versus an ordinary chance of <1% because of what we know  already versus a randomly chosen February.       A Top Tenner at 60%.{+3.7}

Week 4 looks like this:    Cold is pushing south and east......but to what end?

 

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

The latest EPS weeklies:

Torch 

[MJO812]

43 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Torch 

We know you like that 

[the_other_guy]

Not that it matters this year, but by the next cold snap we will finally be able to talk about SUN ANGLE!

 

First!

[Bxstormwatcher360]

Atleast we might get a good ole artic squall coming thru later on.. that should be something for certain parts of the area,esp if the line holds together.

 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said:

Atleast we might get a good ole artic squall coming thru later on.. that should be something for certain parts of the area,esp if the line holds together.

 

Alot of these squalls don't hold on

[Stormlover74]

Surprised nobody posted the day 10 gfs 

[Roger Smith]

The GFS, I think that is short for great for second week because it usually is. 

Snowfall opportunities in the northeast, not too clearly defined, followed by a powerful second cold wave, looks quite ominous for central states near end of the run (19th). Sort of 1979 vibes with this.

Could come to nothing but something to track anyway.

[MJO812]

3 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

The GFS, I think that is short for great for second week because it usually is. 

Snowfall opportunities in the northeast, not too clearly defined, followed by a powerful second cold wave, looks quite ominous for central states near end of the run (19th). Sort of 1979 vibes with this.

Could come to nothing but something to track anyway.

Next weekend might be the next storm to watch

[donsutherland1]

New York City's snow season futility rankings through February 2nd:

[ILoveWinter]

Weather forecast/discussion for Mt. Washington, with absolutely insane wind chills expected - quite a read!

https://www.mountwashington.org/experience-the-weather/mount-washington-weather.aspx

[EasternLI]

Worth mentioning that the strat is still trending. With 61% of gefs members on the 00z now having a ssw. Which is higher than I ever saw at any point during this last attempt. Just an observation this morning. 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Arctic air is surging into the region. Today will be windy and sharply colder. The temperature will fall through the 20s into the teens.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 25°

Newark: 26°

Philadelphia: 30°

After a very cold start to the weekend, temperatures will rebound strongly. 

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 40.1°; 15-Year: 40.3°

Newark: 30-Year: 40.7°; 15-Year: 41.0°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 42.0°; 15-Year: 42.0°

[LoboLeader1]

Reached a high of 32 shortly after midnite, currently it's 23 here.

[jm1220]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Next weekend might be the next storm to watch

I’ll be away that weekend so it definitely will be. 

[MJO812]

Just now, jm1220 said:

I’ll be away that weekend so it definitely will be. 

Most likely rain here since we have bad luck

[wdrag]

11 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

They get better, but they don’t show colder than normal weeks. Hopefully, they will be colder in subsequent cycles.

Thank you Don. One thing I am noticing in Feb...  despite above normal, it doesn't look as warm as it did in January. Certainly GEFS ensembles are muted on warmth...while the CMCE is much more aggressive on warmth.  

All ensembles imply an event of some sort (ice or snow) I80 corridor northward to Canada 2/10-12.  Canadian op needs to get on board.  At least EC op has a chance and the GFS--- might be a little overboard in what has been a severe dud of a winter I84 corridor southward. 

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR:  64 (1991)
NYC: 64 (1991)
LGA: 64 (1991)


Lows: 

NYC: 0 (1955)
LGA: 1 (1955)
EWR: 1 (1955)

 

Historical:

1844: Boston Harbor was so thick with ice on this date that a channel had to be cut through the ice for the "Britannia" ship to leave with 30,000 letters for England.

 

 

[EastonSN+]

Find this very interesting, could the MJO hit phase 8 at a good amplitude by the last week of Feb?

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging     35degs.(28/42) or Near Normal.

Reached 40 here yesterday at 4pm.

Today:   Falling T's from 27 to 20 by 7pm. to 8 tomorrow AM, wind nw-gusty, p. sunny.

Latest GFS runs have been all over the place:

Chance for an inch+ of snow is still anemic and is 0% till Feb. 11, above.

 

30*(50%RH) here at 6am{was 35 at 3am}.     27* at 7am.       25* at 8am.       24* at 10am.     23* at 11am.      24* again at Noon.       23* at  3pm.       20* at 5pm.     18* at 6pm.      14* at 9pm.     13* at 10pm.