February 2023 temperature forecast contest

[Roger Smith]

Predict the temperature anomalies in F deg relative to 1991-2020 normals.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

Deadline Wed Feb 1st, 06z

[Stormchaserchuck1]

DCA +5.5 NYC+6.0 BOS +6.5 ORD+5.5 ATL+5.0 IAH +3.5 DEN +1.0 PHX -2.0 SEA -3.0

*Edit 1-31-2023 7pm. 

[Scotty Lightning]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.5       1.5       1.0        1.0       1.5    2.0        0.5      1.0     0.5 

[hudsonvalley21]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 2.1       2.4     2.0       1.8      1.8.      1.1        0.2      -1.4    -0.8

[wxallannj]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 2.9     3.2     3.0        2.0     2.2     1.6       -0.6    -1.2     0.4

[donsutherland1]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

2.5      2.0      1.7        1.0      3.5     1.5        -1.0    -2.3     -1.6

[Tom]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ __ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

+2.7    +2.3    +1.9      +1.4    +2.8    +1.6        -0.4    -0.9     -1.1

[bkviking]

DCA:  +3.8

NYC:  +3.4

BOS:  +3.4

ORD:  +2.2

ATL:  +3.2

IAH:  +1.2

DEN:  +0.8

PHX:  +0.2

SEA:  +0.2

[wxdude64]

DCA:  +3.1

NYC:  +3.0

BOS:  +2.8

ORD:  +0.6

ATL:  +2.4

IAH:  +1.3

DEN:  -0.7

PHX:  -0.7

SEA:  -0.4

 

[Rjay]

DCA:  +5.0

NYC:  +5.0

BOS:  +5.0

ORD:  +3.5

ATL:  +5.0

IAH:  +4.0

DEN:  -1.0

PHX:  -1.0

SEA:  -1.0

[RodneyS]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.5       2.1       1.4       2.4      1.5     1.0        -1.6    -1.8     -1.6

[Roger Smith]

+2.8 __ +3.2 __ +3.5 __ +2.5 __ +3.5 __ +1.7 __ -1.5 __ -1.5 __ -1.5

(possibly)

[Stormchaserchuck1]

On 1/26/2023 at 4:35 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

DCA +5.5 NYC+6.0 BOS +6.5 ORD+5.5 ATL+5.0 IAH +3.5 DEN +1.0 PHX -2.0 SEA -3.0

*Edit 1-31-2023 7pm. 

Edited

[so_whats_happening]

DCA +3.3

NYC +3.3 

BOS +3.1
ORD +3

ATL+2.3

IAH +2

DEN -2

PHX-1.2

SEA -0.8

[Roger Smith]

 

Table of forecasts for February 2023

 

FORECASTER _______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

Stormchaser Chuck _________+5.5 _ +6.0 _ +6.5 ___ +5.5 _ +5.0 _ +3.5 __ +1.0 _-2.0 _ -3.0

RJay _________________________+5.0 _ +5.0 _ +5.0 ___ +3.5 _ +5.0 _ +4.0 __-1.0 _ -1.0 _ -1.0

BKViking _____________________+3.8 _ +3.4 _ +3.4 ___+2.2 _ +3.2 _ +1.2 __+0.8_ +0.2 _+0.2

so_whats_happening ________+3.3 _ +3.3 _ +3.1 ___ +3.0 _ +2.3 _ +2.0 __-2.0 _ -1.2 _ -0.8

wxdude64 ___________________+3.1 _ +3.0 _ +2.8 ___ +0.6 _ +2.4 _ +1.3 __ -0.7 _-0.7 _ -0.4

wxallannj ____________________ +2.9 _ +3.2 _ +3.0 ___+2.0 _ +2.2 _ +1.6 __ -0.6 _-1.2 _ -0.4

___ Consensus ______________ +2.9 _ +3.1 _ +2.9 ___ +2.1 _ +2.6 _ +1.6 ___ -0.6 _ -1.2 _ -0.9

Roger Smith _________________+2.8 _ +3.2 _ +3.5 ___ +2.5 _ +3.5 _ +1.7 __ -1.5 _ -1.5 _ -1.5

Tom _________________________ +2.7 _ +2.3 _ +1.9 ___ +1.4 __+2.8 _ +1.6 __ -0.4 _ -0.9 _ -1.1

DonSutherland1 _____________+2.5 _ +2.0 _ +1.7 ___ +1.0 _ +3.5 _ +1.5 ___ -1.0 _ -2.3 _ -1.6

hudsonvalley21 _____________ +2.1 _ +2.4 _ +2.0 ___ +1.8 _ +1.8 __ +1.1 ___ +0.2 _-1.4 _ -0.8

RodneyS ____________________ +1.5 _ +2.1 __ +1.4 ___ +2.4 _ +1.5 _ +1.0 ___-1.6 _ -1.8 _ -1.6

Scotty Lightning ____________ +1.5 _ +1.5 __ +1.0 ___ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ +2.0 ___ +0.5 _+1.0 _+0.5

___ Normal ____________________0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 _ 0.0 _ 0.0

______________________________

Warmest and coldest forecasts are color coded; Normal is colder than all forecasts for DCA, NYC, BOS, ORD, ATL, IAH.

 

Persistence (added Sep 2023) __

_ Jan 2023 ano s ___________ 

___ Persistence ___________ +7.7 _ +9.8 _ +7.9 __ +7.1 _ +6.9 _ +4.1 __ -6.7 _ -2.9 _ +0.7

 

 

[Roger Smith]

After the first half of the month, here are the anomalies and projections ...

__________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

(15th) ___ (anom 14d) ___+4.8 _ +4.7 _ +2.9 ___ +5.6 _ +4.7 _-2.5 __+0.5 _ -1.1 _ -0.6

(15th) ___ (p 28d) _______+5.0 _ +5.0 _ +4.0 ___ +4.0 _ +5.0 _-1.5 __-2.0 _ -2.5 _ -2.0

(21st) ___ (p 28d) _______+5.5 _ +6.0 _ +4.5 ___ +4.5 _ +5.5 _-1.5 __-2.0 _ -2.5 _ -2.0

(25th) ___ (p28d) _______+6.0 _ +5.5 _ +4.0 ___ +4.0 _ +6.0 _+2.0 __-2.0 _ -2.5 _ -2.0

( 1st Mar) _ final anoms _+6.8 _ +5.2 _ +3.1 ___ +5.1 _ +8.6 _+2.8 __-1.6 _ -2.8 _ -3.3 

__________________________________

update on snowfall totals to date (to Feb 28)

__________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF __ DEN _ SEA _ BTV 

___________________________ 0.4 __ 2.2 __ 11.5 ___ 17.9 __ 21.2 _ 123.6 __ 41.6 _ 8.1 _ 49.9

--------------------------------------------

(15th) _ Following a few cold days, mild weather has dominated the east, while central and western regions have been slightly cooler than average. Eastern projections are based on assumptions of equal spells warmer and colder than current averages. Western projections assume a growing cold anomaly. 

(21st) _ Adjusted some provisionals by 0.5 or 1.0 based on latest guidance. 

(25th) _ Tweaked the provisionals, major change for IAH which has warmed rapidly. Most others same or slight changes. Last adjustments before final report. Snowfall totals will be adjusted as needed. 

(28th - March 1st) _ Final anomalies are now posted and scoring will be adjusted as shown. 

[Roger Smith]

 

Final scoring for February 2023

 

Scores are based on final monthly anomalies as shown in the table.  

 

FORECASTER ______________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e _DEN_PHX_SEA__west __ TOTAL

Confirmed anomalies _______+6.8 _ +5.2 _ +3.1 ____ +5.1 _+8.6 _+2.8 ___ ___ ___ -1.6 _-2.8 _-3.3 

Stormchaser Chuck _________ 87 _ 86 _ 32 __ 205 __ 93 _ 64 _ 86 __ 243_ 448 _ 48 _ 84 _ 94 __ 226 ____ 674

RJay _________________________ 82 _ 98 _ 62 __ 242 __69 _ 64 _ 76 __ 209 _ 451 __ 88 _ 64 _ 54 __ 206 ____657

Roger Smith _________________ 38 _ 62 _ 92 __ 192 __ 49 _ 35 _ 78 __ 162 __ 354 __ 98 _ 74 _ 64 __ 236 ____590

so_whats_happening ________ 48 _ 64 _100 __ 212 __ 59 _ 23 _ 84__ 166 __ 378 _  92 _ 68 _ 50 __ 210 ____588

___ Consensus _______________ 40 _ 60 _ 96 __ 196 __ 41 _ 26 _ 76 __ 143 __ 339 __ 80 _ 68 _ 52 __ 200 ____539

wxallannj ____________________ 40 _ 62 _  98 __ 200 __ 39 _ 22 _ 76 __ 137 __337 __ 80 _ 68 _ 42 __ 190 ____ 527

DonSutherland1 _____________ 32 _ 38 _ 72 ___ 142 __ 19 _ 35 _ 74 __ 128 __ 270 __ 88 _ 90 _ 66 __ 244 ____ 514

BKViking _____________________ 58 _ 66 _ 94 __ 218 __ 43 _ 32 _ 80 __ 155 __ 373 __ 52 _ 40 _ 30 __ 122 ____ 495

RodneyS _____________________ 15 _ 40 _ 66 ___ 121 __ 47 _ 15 _ 64 __ 126 __ 247 __100_ 80 _ 66 __ 246____ 493

wxdude64 ___________________ 44 _ 58 _ 94 ___ 196 __ 11 _ 24 _ 70 __ 105 __ 301 __ 82 _ 58 _ 42 __ 182 ____ 483

Tom __________________________ 36 _ 44 _ 76 ___ 156 __ 27 _ 28 _ 76 __ 131 __ 287 __ 76 _ 62 _ 56 __ 194 ____ 481

hudsonvalley21 _______________24 _ 46 _ 78 ___ 148 __ 35 _ 18 _ 66 __ 119 __ 267 __ 64 _ 72 _ 50 __ 186 ____ 453

Scotty Lightning _____________ 15 _ 28 _ 58 ___ 101 ___ 19 _ 15 _ 84 __ 118 ___ 219 __ 58 _ 24 _ 24 __ 106 ____ 325

___ Normal ___________________ 00 _ 00 _ 38 ___ 038__ 00 _ 00 _ 44 __ 044 __ 082 _ 68 _ 44 _ 34 __ 146 ____ 228

- - -

___ Persistence ______________ 91 _ 52 _ 04 __ 147 __ 60 _ 83 _ 74 __ 217 __ 364 __ 00 _ 98 _ 20 __ 118 ____ 482

------------------------------------------------------

EXTREME FORECAST REPORT

DCA (+6.8) is a win for StormchaserChuck (+5.5) at current estimates.

NYC (+5.2) is a win for RJay (+5.0) and a loss for StormchaserChuck (+6.0)

BOS (+3.1) does not qualify for an extreme forecast, close to consensus forecast.

ORD (+5.1) is a win for StormchaserChuck (+5.5).

ATL (+8.6) is a shared win for RJay and StormchaserChuck (both +5.0).

IAH (+2.8) is a win for StormchaserChuck (+3.5) and a loss for RJay (+4.0). 

DEN (-1.6) is a win for RodneyS (-1.6) with second lowest forecast and a loss for so_whats_happening (-2.0). 

PHX (-2.8) is a win for DonSutherland1 (-2.3). 

SEA (-3.3) is a win for StormchaserChuck (-3.0). 

_________________

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

That was Feb 19! I think I should win it if temps go a little bit higher here at the end of the month. 

[Roger Smith]

Yep, I just post the estimates so people can see where the scoring might go if you make various assumptions about the actual finishing values, if you think I am let's say 0.5 too low on five locations then you might have 50 more points than shown (5 x 10), and anyone already below my estimates will have 50 fewer points, for a net gain of 100. That may be the case for the first five scoring columns. I will update them all tomorrow after 12z runs, based on new projections. Check back tomorrow evening maybe, the projections will have a note showing whether they are updated on 21st. Then the scores would have been updated before I post that note as I edit the two posts at the same time.

(later edit _ I have adjusted the scoring today Feb 21st). 

 

[Roger Smith]

 

=== === <<<< ---- ANNUAL SCORING for JAN-FEB 2023 ---- >>>> === ===

 

Best scores for the nine locations are shown with red highlight, best totals for regions in bold.

 

FORECASTER ____________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent_ c/e__ DEN_PHX_SEA__west __ TOTALS

 

 

RJay _______________________155 _158 _ 133 __ 446 __148 _135 _134__ 417 __863 _ 102 _ 84 _140 __ 326 ____1189

DonSutherland1 ___________ 100 _ 92 _ 138 __ 330 __ 98 _106 _156 __360 __ 690 __106 _132 _140 __ 378 ____1068

wxallannj __________________ 95 _104 _157 __ 356 __ 115 _ 72 _150 __ 337 __ 693 _ 110 _124 _ 100 __ 334 ____1027

RodneyS ___________________64 _ 82 _122 __ 268 __ 113 _ 47 _136 __ 296 __ 564 _ 158 _140 _158 __ 456 ____1020

hudsonvalley21 ____________85 _ 94 _141 __ 320 __109 _ 88 _130 __ 327 __ 647 __ 94 _104 _136 __ 334 ____ 981

___ Consensus _____________89 _ 92 _147 __ 328 __ 101 _ 58 _134 __ 293 __ 621 _ 110 _100 _150 __ 360 ____ 981

Roger Smith _______________ 82 _ 84 _138 __ 304 __ 79 _ 91 _176 __ 346 __ 650 __ 98 _ 74 _148 __ 320 ____ 970

so_whats_happening ______ 90 _ 82 _138 __ 310 __ 101 _ 41 _134 __ 276 __ 586 __ 98 _ 96 _148 __ 342 ____ 928

Tom ________________________90 _ 75 _126 __ 291 __ 87 _ 52 _ 112 __ 251 __ 542 __ 118 _ 94 _146 __ 358 ____ 900

BKViking __________________108 _ 98 _145 __ 351 __ 83 _ 50 _ 108 __ 241 __ 592 __ 92 _ 82 _ 124 __ 298 ____ 890

wxdude64 _________________ 88 _ 83 _140 __ 311 __ 27 _ 50 _ 110 __ 187 __ 498 __ 142 _108 _124 __ 374 ____ 872

Stormchaser Chuck (1/2) __ 87 _ 86 _ 32 __ 205 __ 93 _ 64 _ 86 __ 243 __ 448 __ 048 _ 84 _ 94 __ 226 ____ 674

Scotty Lightning ___________ 35 _ 40 _ 68 __ 143 __ 29 _ 35 _132 __ 196 __ 339 __ 106 _ 46 _ 120 __ 272 ____ 611

___ Normal _________________ 00 _ 00 _ 38 __ 038 __ 00 _ 00 _ 62 __ 062 __ 100 __ 118 _ 88 _ 120 __ 326 ____ 426

_______________________________________________________

___ Persistence ____________ 91 _ 52 _ 20 __ 163 __ 60 _ 85 _ 126 __ 271 __ 434 __ 70 _148 _ 42 ___ 260 ____ 694

 

Best Forecasts

 

* shared with one other forecaster for one month (does not apply to Consensus or Normal, if they qualify, so does the high forecaster score whether tied or not)

 

FORECASTER ____________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent_ c/e__ DEN_PHX_SEA__west __ Months

 

RJay _______________________ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1 ____2 ____ 1*___2**___0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 

DonSutherland1 ___________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1*____1*____0____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1* ___ 0 ____ 1 _ Jan

wxallannj __________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0

RodneyS ___________________0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1* ___ 2 ____0

___ Consensus ____________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____0

hudsonvalley21 ____________0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0

Roger Smith _______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 

so_whats_happening ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0

Tom _______________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0

BKViking __________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0

wxdude64 _________________0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0

Stormchaser Chuck (1/2) __ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____1*____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____1 _ Feb

Scotty Lightning ___________0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0

___ Normal _________________0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0

 

-----------------------------------------

EXTREME FORECAST SUMMARY

 

So far, 16 of 18 forecasts qualify, 11 of them for warmest, and 5 for coldest ... Jan 6-2, Feb 5-3

 

FORECASTER _______ Jan _ Feb ____ TOTALS ___ (adjusted for ties)

RJay _________________ 5-0 _ 2-1 ____ 7-1 _______ 5.5 - 1

StormchaserChuck __ -- --_ 5-1 ____ 5-1 _______4.5 - 1

DonSutherland ______ 2-0 _ 1-0 ____ 3-0 _______ 2.0 - 0

RodneyS _____________ 1-0 _ 1-0 ____ 2-0 _______ 2.0 - 0

wxdude64 ___________ 1-0 _ 0-0 ____ 1-0 _______ 1.0 - 0

Roger Smith __________1-0 _ 0-0 ____ 1-0 _______ 1.0 - 0

so_whats_happening _ 0-0 _0-1 ____ 0-1 _______ 0.0 - 1

(all others) ___________ 0-0 _ 0-0 ____ 0-0 _______0.0 - 0

===========================================

 

 

[Roger Smith]

 

Four Seasons contest 2022-23 __ Winter segment

Each season is scored 10 points for high total score, then 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 for 2nd to 7th, and 1 point for anyone else who entered a minimum of 2/3.

 

FORECASTER _________ DEC __ JAN-FEB __ TOTAL __ Points

RJay ___________________690 ___1189 ______ 1879 _____ 10

RodneyS _______________740 ___1020 ______ 1760 ______7

DonSutherland1 ________654 ___1068 ______ 1722 _____ 6

wxallannj ______________ 672 ___1027 ______ 1699 _____ 5

___ Consensus _________ 700 ___ 982 ______1682 _____ 4.3

hudsonvalley21 ________ 694 ___ 981 ______ 1675 _____ 4

Roger Smith ___________  646 ___ 980 _____ 1626 _____ 3

so_whats_happening ___ 692 ___ 928 _____ 1620 _____ 2

BKViking _______________ 686 ___ 890 ______ 1576 _____ 1

Tom ____________________ 645 ___ 900 ______ 1545 _____1

wxdude64 _____________ 646 ___ 872 ______ 1518 _____ 1

Scotty Lightning _______ 536 ___ 611 _______ 1147 _____ 1

___ Normal _____________ 650 ___ 426 ______ 1076 _____ 1

 

StormchaserChuck ____ -- -- ___ 674 ______ 674 ______ 0 (1/3)

George001  ____________ 584 ___ --- ---____ 584 ______ 0 (1/3)