Pittsburgh/Western PA Spring 2023 Discussion

[Ahoff]

58 minutes ago, TimB said:

I just did a quick twitter search and it looks like this might be the first one since April 2018 for the immediate Pittsburgh area.

If only we had 25% humidity all summer, lol.

[donyewest]

Big ol' wildfire in Armstrong county yesterday.  Big dummies burning when it's dry, making more work for firefighters.

[Ahoff]

Kind of an interesting observation from the NWS this morning.  At the 10 am obs the tem was 62 and humidity 56%, at the 11 update it was 72 and 37% humidity.  Big change.

[donyewest]

On 4/11/2023 at 8:31 AM, TimB said:

NWS posted a graphic. Just a casual 6 degrees above normal highs for the year to date, with probably six more days with well above normal highs incoming.

The "Most similar city" made me think about the reports that show future (yr 2050, 1.5~3.0C) climatological transitions for metro areas.  Poor wording but "what city will Pittsburgh feel most like in the future" stuff.  I can't find the studies or bookmarks at the moment but did find this 2019 TribLIVE article, "Study: Climate change will make Pittsburgh feel southern by 2080," that showed we will feel more like Jonesboro, Arkansas.

The visualization from University of Maryland  (I goofed, this is the map linked in the article.)

So, hey, we're way ahead of the curve here by already aligning with St. Louis, MO.  Only ~200 more miles south and we will prove all of them wrong, under budget and ahead of schedule.

[Ahoff]

3 hours ago, donyewest said:

The "Most similar city" made me think about the reports that show future (yr 2050, 1.5~3.0C) climatological transitions for metro areas.  Poor wording but "what city will Pittsburgh feel most like in the future" stuff.  I can't find the studies or bookmarks at the moment but did find this 2019 TribLIVE article, "Study: Climate change will make Pittsburgh feel southern by 2080," that showed we will feel more like Jonesboro, Arkansas.

The visualization from University of Maryland  (I goofed, this is the map linked in the article.)

So, hey, we're way ahead of the curve here by already aligning with St. Louis, MO.  Only ~200 more miles south and we will prove all of them wrong, under budget and ahead of schedule.

For one year, sure.

[donyewest]

30 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

For one year, sure.

Don't much care for this preview.

[Ahoff]

2 hours ago, donyewest said:

Don't much care for this preview.

We can't make anything out of one year, lol.  Same with winter.  It is just a warmer pattern right now.  It'll break eventually.

[TimB]

Back half of April looks like largely below normal temps, though temps do surge towards yet another mini heat wave later this week as yet another storm comes up through the lakes in this, the 5th month in a row of this pattern.

[donyewest]

On 1/25/2023 at 9:10 PM, donyewest said:

Get out your old sheets to cover those early plants from repeated, poorly advertised frosts.

Excited for the abrupt changeover to 89F with 70%+ RH.

I was almost right!

[TimB]

On 4/16/2023 at 7:55 PM, TimB said:

Back half of April looks like largely below normal temps, though temps do surge towards yet another mini heat wave later this week as yet another storm comes up through the lakes in this, the 5th month in a row of this pattern.

Just kidding. If the euro is right, upper 70s are once again attainable next week. More cutters. This pattern just doesn’t change.

[Ahoff]

6 hours ago, TimB said:

Just kidding. If the euro is right, upper 70s are once again attainable next week. More cutters. This pattern just doesn’t change.

Looks like one day, maybe?  Generally, looks on either side of average.

[Ahoff]

Looking pretty cool for at least the next week.  Not great.

[ChalkHillSnowNut]

2 hours ago, Ahoff said:

Looking pretty cool for at least the next week.  Not great.

I love it! Better camping weather for big fires…no more wildfire days in the western laurels….

[Ahoff]

10 hours ago, ChalkHillSnowNut said:

I love it! Better camping weather for big fires…no more wildfire days in the western laurels….

As long as it doesn’t rain a ton, I can live with it.

[TheClimateChanger]

I noticed PIT reported some flurries late this morning. I also noticed some frozen precipitation around that time as I was doing yard work, but I couldn't tell if it was light ice pellets or snow flurries - the precipitation was very light, and did not last long.

[TimB]

11 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I noticed PIT reported some flurries late this morning. I also noticed some frozen precipitation around that time as I was doing yard work, but I couldn't tell if it was light ice pellets or snow flurries - the precipitation was very light, and did not last long.

Very likely snow flurries. Looks like PIT was at 42 at the time of the one singular obs that reported snow. I was driving back from NW PA at that time and temperatures were similar (low 40s), and p-type was definitely snow flurries at times in the vicinity of I-80.

[jwilson]

On 4/22/2023 at 8:40 PM, Ahoff said:

Looking pretty cool for at least the next week.  Not great.

GFS looks bad for the first week of May.  30s and 40s (as highs).  We'll see if it holds, but that's not a terribly great start to pre-summer.  I knew we'd pay for those early 80s, though.  Snow flurries the last two days.

[Digger]

Just got back from Brighton Twp., and about an hour ago there had been enough graupel to make the roads slushy. There was an accident on 376 that I have to believe was a "too fast for conditions" thing.

[TheClimateChanger]

Just had a brief snow shower here.

[meatwad]

Freeze Warning

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1122 AM EDT Mon Apr 24 2023

OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>022-029-
031-073>078-WVZ001>004-012-021-509>514-242330-
/O.UPG.KPBZ.FZ.A.0001.230425T0400Z-230425T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KPBZ.FZ.W.0003.230425T0400Z-230425T1300Z/
Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Coshocton-Harrison-Jefferson OH-
Muskingum-Guernsey-Belmont-Noble-Monroe-Mercer-Venango-Forest-
Lawrence-Butler-Clarion-Jefferson PA-Beaver-Allegheny-Armstrong-
Washington-Greene-Westmoreland-Higher Elevations of Westmoreland-
Fayette-Higher Elevations of Fayette-Indiana-Higher Elevations of
Indiana-Hancock-Brooke-Ohio-Marshall-Wetzel-Marion-Monongalia-
Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-Preston-
Eastern Preston-Western Tucker-Eastern Tucker-
Including the cities of New Philadelphia, Dover, Carrollton,
Malvern, East Liverpool, Salem, Columbiana, Coshocton, Cadiz,
Steubenville, Zanesville, Cambridge, Martins Ferry, St.
Clairsville, Caldwell, Woodsfield, Sharon, Hermitage, Grove City,
Oil City, Franklin, Tionesta, New Castle, Ellwood City, Butler,
Clarion, Punxsutawney, Brookville, Aliquippa, Beaver Falls,
Ambridge, Monaca, Pittsburgh Metro Area, Kittanning, Ford City,
Washington, Canonsburg, Waynesburg, Murrysville, Greensburg, New
Kensington, Lower Burrell, Latrobe, Monessen, Ligonier, Donegal,
Uniontown, Champion, Ohiopyle, Indiana, Armagh, Weirton,
Follansbee, Wellsburg, Wheeling, Moundsville, New Martinsville,
Fairmont, Morgantown, Coopers Rock, Kingwood, Bruceton Mills,
Terra Alta, Rowlesburg, Hazelton, Parsons, Hendricks, Saint
George, Davis, Thomas, Canaan Valley, New Philadelphia, Dover,
Carrollton, Malvern, East Liverpool, Salem, Columbiana,
Coshocton, Cadiz, Steubenville, Zanesville, Cambridge, Martins
Ferry, St. Clairsville, Caldwell, Woodsfield, Sharon, Hermitage,
Grove City, Oil City, Franklin, Tionesta, New Castle, Ellwood
City, Butler, Clarion, Punxsutawney, Brookville, Aliquippa,
Beaver Falls, Ambridge, Monaca, Pittsburgh Metro Area,
Kittanning, Ford City, Washington, Canonsburg, Waynesburg,
Murrysville, Greensburg, New Kensington, Lower Burrell, Latrobe,
Monessen, Ligonier, Donegal, Uniontown, Champion, Ohiopyle,
Indiana, Armagh, Weirton, Follansbee, Wellsburg, Wheeling,
Moundsville, New Martinsville, Fairmont, Morgantown, Coopers
Rock, Kingwood, Bruceton Mills, Terra Alta, Rowlesburg, Hazelton,
Parsons, Hendricks, Saint George, Davis, Thomas, and Canaan
Valley
1122 AM EDT Mon Apr 24 2023

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Freezing temperatures as low as 28 expected.

* WHERE...Portions of east central Ohio. Portions of northwest,
  southwest, and western Pennsylvania. Portions of northern and the
  northern panhandle of West Virginia.

* WHEN...From Midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other
  sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor
  plumbing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

&&

$$

Brown

 

[Ahoff]

3 hours ago, jwilson said:

GFS looks bad for the first week of May.  30s and 40s (as highs).  We'll see if it holds, but that's not a terribly great start to pre-summer.  I knew we'd pay for those early 80s, though.  Snow flurries the last two days.

I doubt this, 50s probably, maybe high 40s wouldn't be absurd.  Gross for sure though.

[TimB]

10 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

I doubt this, 50s probably, maybe high 40s wouldn't be absurd.  Gross for sure though.

30s would be unprecedented. The coldest May high at PIT is 40, on 5/9/1966 (by far the snowiest May day on record here at 3.1”) and on 5/9/1923 (the third snowiest May day on record at 0.7”). I think I mentioned this back in 2021, but five of the 10 coldest May highs in Pittsburgh occurred on the 9th, including 2020 and 2021. Odd quirk.

[north pgh]

Let's remember 6 months from now we get to start tracking again. 

[Ahoff]

2 hours ago, TimB said:

30s would be unprecedented. The coldest May high at PIT is 40, on 5/9/1966 (by far the snowiest May day on record here at 3.1”) and on 5/9/1923 (the third snowiest May day on record at 0.7”). I think I mentioned this back in 2021, but five of the 10 coldest May highs in Pittsburgh occurred on the 9th, including 2020 and 2021. Odd quirk.

Yeah, so it looks unlikely to be that cold, but cold (40s-50s) definitely possible.  I do hope it warms a bit though at least near 60.

[TheClimateChanger]

So, I was sharing some information about Pennsylvania climate from the 19th century. Thought I should share this information here too.

These Allegheny Arsenal (Lawrenceville, Pittsburgh, PA) records are just absolutely lit.

 

You can probably ignore the data from 1825-1827, which is oddly much warmer than the rest of the records. The period from October 1836 through April 1837 is absolutely insane. And these are from 704', adjacent to the Allegheny River (or about 500' below PIT airport). The overall means [around 51F] aren't too far from the 1991-2010 mean for PIT airport [51.8F], but again these are 500' lower in elevation and somewhat to the south within the boundaries of the present-day city of Pittsburgh [Lawrenceville was a separate borough at the time]. The elevation difference would account for about 1.5F of warming relative to the airport, even ignoring the change of latitude. The mean at PIT airport probably would have been about 49-49.5F at this time. But even this seemingly minor cooling would rewrite the record books - 48.2F in 1836, 46.9F in 1837, 49.1F in 1840, 48.9F in 1842, 47.8F in 1856 would all be among the five coldest in the modern records.

For the record, these were calculated by three daily readings - 7 am, 2 pm, and 9 pm. Probably local solar time, as I believe this predates even standard time zones [and far predates daylight saving time]. I was curious how these would compare to modern means computed from max & min, and I looked at the data for 2011 using the hourly averages reported in each monthly LCD for 7 am, 2 pm, and 9 pm (standard time) and determined the difference is negligible [in that year, this method would have produced a warming bias of 0.3F for the yearly mean]. Obviously, you'd want to take a look at more data to confirm, but it looks like a small bias - and a positive one at that. So these readings are not being artificially cooled by the methodology. The biggest warm bias is in the early summer, because the 7 am standard [8 am EDT] / 7 am local solar time reading would be a couple hours after sunrise and miss the actual low.

Anyways, the 1836-1837 is absolutely insane. This is what has been stolen from us snow lovers. People don't realize how cold it was, and how big of a difference just a couple degrees can really make. I mean we were probably perilously close to tipping into an ice age with these conditions.

October 1836: 38.2F [The coldest in the modern record is 45.9F, or 7.7F warmer than this reading!]

November 1836: 30.8F [The coldest in the modern record is 33.1F, or 2.3F warmer than this reading!]

December 1836: 22.4F [Would tie 1963 for 2nd coldest in the modern record]

January 1837: 16.8F [Would be the 2nd coldest in the modern record]

February 1837: 25.6F [Would tie 20th coldest in the modern record]

March 1837: 27.7F [Would be 2nd coldest in the modern record -- current 2nd place at 31.0F]

April 1837: 31.3F [The coldest in the modern record is 43.8F, or 12.5F warmer than this reading!]

The April 1837 reading probably appears impossible at first glance, but given the temperatures of the preceding six months, there must have been a massive snow cover in place at the end of March 1837 that gradually melted off throughout April offsetting the extreme sun angle.

There's a lot of support for this extreme cold. Cosiguina erupted in 1835, dropping global temperatures by .75C. June 28, 1836 is the only time snow occurred in Sydney, AU when one inch fell. People have no idea how cold it used to be, or how cold the natural climate should be. We should be teetering on the edge of a new ice with a series of major volcanic eruptions.

Next time someone complains about how cold it is in spring, just remember it used to be possible to have subfreezing temperatures in April at the latitude of Pittsburgh less than 200 years ago.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

On 4/24/2023 at 10:23 AM, jwilson said:

GFS looks bad for the first week of May.  30s and 40s (as highs).  We'll see if it holds, but that's not a terribly great start to pre-summer.  I knew we'd pay for those early 80s, though.  Snow flurries the last two days.

Next 5-7 day period shaping up to be pretty lousy for sure. Would like to see this type of pattern setup in winter, periodic snow chances via ripples of energy rotating around that cutoff low taping into some lake enhancement. 

[TimB]

Looks like we’ve sealed the deal on a 4th straight above normal month to start 2023, though the back end of the month kept us far from surpassing 2017. I wonder if this year ends up being like 2020 where once the switch is flipped, the heat is on after a cold spell in early May.

[Ahoff]

1 hour ago, TimB said:

Looks like we’ve sealed the deal on a 4th straight above normal month to start 2023, though the back end of the month kept us far from surpassing 2017. I wonder if this year ends up being like 2020 where once the switch is flipped, the heat is on after a cold spell in early May.

God, I hope.  This last week and nearly the next have been pretty bad.  Done with the cold in the mornings.

[TimB]

Just poured graupel here for a few minutes.

[north pgh]

57 minutes ago, TimB said:

Just poured graupel here for a few minutes.

Yes same here last hour. Any snowfall maps posted for tonight or tomorrow am?