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Pittsburgh/Western PA Spring 2023 Discussion


Ahoff
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1 hour ago, TimB said:

NWS seemed to be pulling back on that in some of their forecast discussions/grids/zone forecasts. I’m not sure that means anything, it seems like they’ve put the 60ish gusts back into the southern half of the county. On second thought, not sure I want a 2/24/19 type event. I think that one involved widespread power outages.

I mean, yeah if the threat lessens, good.  Widespread damage and power outages are not good.

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Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
PAC003-007-019-073-085-121-011800-
/O.NEW.KPBZ.SV.W.0008.230401T1734Z-230401T1800Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
134 PM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023

The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Eastern Mercer County in northwestern Pennsylvania...
  Eastern Beaver County in western Pennsylvania...
  Venango County in northwestern Pennsylvania...
  Eastern Lawrence County in western Pennsylvania...
  Butler County in west central Pennsylvania...
  Northern Allegheny County in southwestern Pennsylvania...

* Until 200 PM EDT.

* At 134 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
  extending from 10 miles southeast of Atlantic to Sewickley, moving
  east at 65 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Expect damage to trees and power lines, resulting in some
           power outages.

* Locations impacted include...
  Pittsburgh, Penn Hills, Ross Township, McCandless Township,
  Monroeville, Cranberry, Moon Township, Butler, Franklin Park, Oil
  City, Aliquippa, and Grove City.

This includes the following highways...
  Pennsylvania Turnpike between mile markers 15 and 56.
  Interstate 79 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 62 and 137.
  Interstate 80 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 14 and 44.
  Parkway North between mile markers 1 and 13.
  Interstate 376 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 44 and 58, and
  between mile markers 79 and 84.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Please report severe weather by calling 412-262-1988, posting to
the NWS Pittsburgh Facebook page, or using Twitter @NWSPITTSBURGH.

&&

LAT...LON 4144 7952 4144 7948 4134 7948 4132 7960
      4128 7960 4125 7965 4119 7966 4118 7970
      4064 7969 4057 7977 4052 7970 4043 7970
      4047 8033 4148 8024 4149 8000 4162 7983
      4163 7951
TIME...MOT...LOC 1734Z 271DEG 56KT 4144 8015 4055 8017

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

 

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4 hours ago, Ahoff said:

Looking forward to the 70s this week.  At least they're more seasonably appropriate now, lol.

NWS discussion hinted at 80 or even higher by Wednesday with a shot at the record of 83 if frontal timing is slow like non-GFS models are hinting at. I hope the 18z RGEM is overdone, but this would be the earliest 86 on record at PIT by almost a week.

2521CAFD-92D5-462F-908E-AD1EDF27A1FC.thumb.jpeg.b85c1d395353ca3d57b2a9405ea6e180.jpeg

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On 2/2/2023 at 3:19 PM, Rd9108 said:

We legit have 2 and half months left of possible winter weather maybe even 3. Granted we are losing prime climo so it doesn't stick around. I'll honestly be amazed if we don't atleast get one noteworthy storm this year. I mean even 3-6 is noteworthy at this point. 

Welp

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10 hours ago, TimB said:

NWS discussion hinted at 80 or even higher by Wednesday with a shot at the record of 83 if frontal timing is slow like non-GFS models are hinting at. I hope the 18z RGEM is overdone, but this would be the earliest 86 on record at PIT by almost a week.

2521CAFD-92D5-462F-908E-AD1EDF27A1FC.thumb.jpeg.b85c1d395353ca3d57b2a9405ea6e180.jpeg

Lol, I'm gonna doubt this one.  80 maybe, but 86, I'd be surprised.  Though we did run into the upper 80s in the first half of April back in what 2010-ish?

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2 hours ago, Ahoff said:

Lol, I'm gonna doubt this one.  80 maybe, but 86, I'd be surprised.  Though we did run into the upper 80s in the first half of April back in what 2010-ish?

2010 is correct. Mid 80s, not upper. 85 on the 2nd, 84 on the 3rd, 85 on the 6th. The two 85s are the earliest 85s on record.

NWS is currently carrying a high around 81 for Wednesday. TWC says 83.

NWS discussion contains this:

“NBM probabilities give a 30% chance of tying the KPIT record high of 83F.”

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5 hours ago, TimB said:

2010 is correct. Mid 80s, not upper. 85 on the 2nd, 84 on the 3rd, 85 on the 6th. The two 85s are the earliest 85s on record.

NWS is currently carrying a high around 81 for Wednesday. TWC says 83.

NWS discussion contains this:

“NBM probabilities give a 30% chance of tying the KPIT record high of 83F.”

Maybe I'm thinking of upper 80s later in April.

NWS has KPIT at 82 as of Wednesday, maybe that 86 isn't so out of the question.

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7 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Maybe I'm thinking of upper 80s later in April.

NWS has KPIT at 82 as of Wednesday, maybe that 86 isn't so out of the question.

There are a few that come to mind. There’s 2009, which I think had a few days get to 87 around the last week of April. I want to say we had a few hot days at the end of April 2017, then there’s 2002 which had a few days get to 86 or so in the middle of the month. That one isn’t as noteworthy here as it is on the east coast, where it’s the standard-bearer for early season heat. NYC got to 96.

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7 hours ago, TimB said:

There are a few that come to mind. There’s 2009, which I think had a few days get to 87 around the last week of April. I want to say we had a few hot days at the end of April 2017, then there’s 2002 which had a few days get to 86 or so in the middle of the month. That one isn’t as noteworthy here as it is on the east coast, where it’s the standard-bearer for early season heat. NYC got to 96.

I might just say screw it and off myself if we ever hit 96 in april.

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Daily record is 83.

The record earliest:

85: 4/2/2010

86: 4/11/1930

87: 4/17/1896

88: 4/18/1896 (actual high that day was 90)

So if we overperform, we’re talking about temperatures a full week or two before they’ve ever been observed.

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