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February 2023 Obs/Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

If the meat would get in here, probably would be a flip to paste even in lower spots. 

The southern MA won't get much of anything unless you're in the higher elevations above 1K

Yeah if you look at 925-850, you can see that if the meat of the CCB gets in here, I think you'd be parachuting except maybe on the Cape and immediate south coast? Even there might get something if the lift was excellent.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro completely cancelled the spring warmup potential in that Feb 17th range....instead it has overrunning threat with high pressure pressing down into our area.

It's an epic battle between these recent deterministic run renditions, vs this ...

image.png.eca358aaf9507757dad213669d63a2cd.png

There's no interpretation - in a vacuum - that supports the operational GFS and Euro longer lead visions - yet they're persisting.  

We've actually been in this disconnect for awhile in the guidance frame domains.  Telecons have parted company... I checked the Euro clusters version of these at WeatherBell and they're essentially the same...

But here's the thing...  that 'in a vacuum' aspect cloaks the -EPO 'tendency'    I put the tendency in quotes because it's a NE Pac ridge node that's displaced from the EPO's canonical domain.  It's really a -PNA/+AO(QUASI -EPO) that is causing all the problems. The pattern in the deterministic solutions is utterly responsive to the cold loading off the later mode tendency, and they're physically ending up suppression any other exertion from these other field sources.   

If we look at this, you can see how a +AO, -PNA, +NAO with a weird variation on -EPO could cause the anti-correlary result to take place...

image.png.e6eeaf000bf747d3d8e4b59129a36faf.png

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5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Oh Jerry you guys and ice. Heal well Momma

Thanks Steve.  She’s resilient and reluctant to ask for help.  Finally she realized she couldn’t crack an egg over the pan for breakfast so o happily did it.  Thing is-I like cooking and have the time this week.

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The trough in the west could still be a problem... If it plumbs the positive anomaly back east balloons and it boot legs a warm burst.  But... the flow being fast overall strikes me as having difficulty believing guidance types that bias toward curving flows out in time...a.k.a. the Euro.

( in an aside, I sometimes feel the Euro's 4-d variable smoothing thing is a bad fit for recent climate which is proving faster and faster velocities in the mid levels... One's correction genius is not as well suited to a flow that inherently/physically restricts curvature because it is too fast)

Anyway, that may be why we're seeing cold bleeds and these while storms showing up in the extended.

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22 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Thanks Steve.  She’s resilient and reluctant to ask for help.  Finally she realized she couldn’t crack an egg over the pan for breakfast so o happily did it.  Thing is-I like cooking and have the time this week.

I hate ice so much.  Would take HHH anytime over ice

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16 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I hate ice so much.  Would take HHH anytime over ice

With every passing year you get more fearful of falling. Most winters I keep a dedicated pair of shoes near the front door with spikes on them. 
One of our former assistant brewers was an ER nurse before she got into the beer world. She said winter ER visits from slipping, numbered in the hundreds in Greenfield alone.

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12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That's the last real memorable one. I suppose the late Aug tstm here was good, but otherwise pretty darn quiet.

I agree... Just busting given the tendency for folks (including myself) to never expand the storm gaze away from their backyard.  I have a nephew that lives south of KC KS.  He always complains to he's never that close to svr wx!  Mind you, he's called me twice from his basement when tornadoes were within 3 miles... Lol

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