40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: I’ve never been so out so soon on a winter. I mean, I was really done in December. I’m beyond annoyed that every other post I make is some sarcastic shot at the winter that wasn’t. I’d much rather have a reason to stay up for the euro, post pictures of pristine snowy landscapes, and belly laugh at the buffoonery of overdone snow maps. We’re barely getting traces in clown range. Just end this already. I have looked at guidance maybe a handful of times all season and not since the snow in January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I was thinking ...for the bad luck we had in December regarding the 2 week period of a better pattern , from Ray to Me actually had some good luck getting the snow we did , being barely on the decent side of a gradient in two storms . That January storm where we had absolutely no high pressure in place ..that could have easily tracked thru Portland ended up delivering a solid snow fall Most of the eastern areas outside the S coast Well yeah... in a purely objective sense ( an attribute so richly observed in the regular engagement of this internet social media pastime LOL ...), I have 20" so far this season. That fell from something ... right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: C’mon, Nobody looking at models anymore… Like I said.. sorry I asked 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I’ve never been so out so soon on a winter. I mean, I was really done in December. I’m beyond annoyed that every other post I make is some sarcastic shot at the winter that wasn’t. I’d much rather have a reason to stay up for the euro, post pictures of pristine snowy landscapes, and belly laugh at the buffoonery of overdone snow maps. We’re barely getting traces in clown range. Just end this already. Hey, chin up, you’ve always got the edge of seat, nailbiting joys of tracking severe in the spring! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Well yeah... in a purely objective sense ( an attribute so richly observed in the regular engagement of this internet social media pastime LOL ...), I have 20" so far this season. That fell from something ... right? Yes and the period A decent amount of it fell in was supposed to be sort of a Bad pattern ..so there was some good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 S Appalachians elevation snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: Yes and the period A decent amount of it fell in was supposed to be sort of a Bad pattern At this latitude, you get 20-25" by default every season...that was it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 As far as the pattern change scoffing ... It's been pretty clear - to me - all along that there is a tendency to conflate whether a pattern has changed, with whether that pattern has delivered d-drip or whatever it is that is sought from the observed d(pattern). That's improper as a reproach to this - or, ...if you want that to be valid, it has nothing to do with either weather observation and everything to do with some sort of disconnect for anything real. The pattern changed. The sensible result.... no, scratch that. The modeling cinema still did not produce - apparently what really matters to this. There's a phrase available in most languages of the planet, which in spirit means exactly the same aspect about life and times and dealing with what is real... it's called TOUGH SHIT The pattern changed. You're lack of satisfaction for this too 'oft humbling addiction behavior did not. Those are mutually exclusive aspects of reality. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Hey, chin up, you’ve always got the edge of seat, nailbiting joys of tracking severe in the spring! TCU and a 40 mph gust would be the severe equivalent of our best snowfall of the season, which was 2 mos ago by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Euro is kind of like GGEM....really close but the good stuff doesn't get in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 The Euro cranked a CCB around the NYC metro and it goes to sleet just before it pulls away, the Kuchera has less than an inch of snow from it. The NYC area snow futility looks to continue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: As far as the pattern change scoffing ... It's been pretty clear - to me - all along that there is a tendency to conflate whether a pattern has changed, with whether that pattern has delivered d-drip or whatever it is that is sought from the observed d(pattern). That's improper as a reproach to this - or, ...if you want that to valid, it has nothing to do with either weather observation and everything to do with some sort of disconnect for anything real. The pattern changed. The sensible result.... no, scratch that. The modeling cinema still did not produce - that's what really matters to this ( clearly...). There's a phrase available in most languages of the planet, which in spirit means exactly the same aspect about life and times and dealing with what is real... it's called TOUGH SHIT The pattern changed. You're lack of satisfaction for this too 'oft humbling addiction behavior did not. Those are mutually exclusive aspects of reality. I think it's a little of both...I agree that since nobody cares if said changes didn't result in snow in their BY, that there is an element of resistance to the reality that the pattern did in fact change. However, there has definitely been a trend for guidance to be initally overzealous with the change in the longer range, which exacerbates the first issue due to frustration. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 It is going to be completely on brand for this winter for the southern mid Atlantic to cash in while we have been able to score more than a couple inches of slush on the back of Rainers. the real kicker is it’ll come just close enough to keep interest until the final few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 18 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Hey, chin up, you’ve always got the edge of seat, nailbiting joys of tracking severe in the spring! Oh joy. We go from a bad winter 21-22 and a boring spring, summer, and fall 2022, to an all time awful winter 22-23, severe fail spring and summer, and El Niño tropical season this fall. Someone slam an axe into the back of my head as an act of mercy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: At this latitude, you get 20-25" by default every season...that was it. Could have easily shafted us by half in that set up 6 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: It is going to be completely on brand for this winter for the southern mid Atlantic to cash in while we have been able to score more than a couple inches of slush on the back of Rainers. the real kicker is it’ll come just close enough to keep interest until the final few days Looks like rain to me for SE mass , hopefully a few hundred feet more elevation in CT/RI can score Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Like I said.. sorry I asked Just busting chops. It’s all good. You told us the other day…nobody looks at model’s anymore. AlL in fun Kev. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 10 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: It is going to be completely on brand for this winter for the southern mid Atlantic to cash in while we have been able to score more than a couple inches of slush on the back of Rainers. the real kicker is it’ll come just close enough to keep interest until the final few days How many times did you hit f5 during 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 If the meat would get in here, probably would be a flip to paste even in lower spots. The southern MA won't get much of anything unless you're in the higher elevations above 1K Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 So much for a few days of warm wx next week. By warm I mean extended 50s-60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 And a day 9-10 snow event lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Could have easily shafted us by half in that set up Looks like rain to me for SE mass , hopefully a few hundred feet more elevation in CT/RI can score And December could have easily produced 30" instead of next to nothing. Point is that there is a reason why we never get under 20" in a season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 The heat has been getting muted on the models in the 10 day time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Euro completely cancelled the spring warmup potential in that Feb 17th range....instead it has overrunning threat with high pressure pressing down into our area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 13 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Just busting chops. It’s all good. You told us the other day…nobody looks at model’s anymore. AlL in fun Kev. Just trying to see if I need to buy Ginx weed or not 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: And December could have easily produced 30" instead of next to nothing. Point is that there is a reason why we never get under 20" in a season. Yep....if every single break goes in the "Bad" direction, we could have a 5-10 inch winter over interior SNE....likewise, if we hadn't gotten screwed in March 2015 or that marginal rainstorm on a nor' easter in Dec '14 or even on a couple events during the good pattern like 1/31/15, we could have had 170 inches, lol. But there's a reason we don't get 170 inches ever or 7 inches. Having every coinflip go against you the entire winter is really hard. You are bound to have even a couple coinflips go your way even when you're unlucky when there are a dozen of them. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro completely cancelled the spring warmup potential in that Feb 17th range....instead it has overrunning threat with high pressure pressing down into our area. Warm up even fails lol…I’m good with it though. Warm ups in early to mid Feb isn't what I prefer. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 25 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The Euro cranked a CCB around the NYC metro and it goes to sleet just before it pulls away, the Kuchera has less than an inch of snow from it. The NYC area snow futility looks to continue It's all odds. And the odds suck with this. POP is highest where ptype issues are highest. We will find even if the track trends favorably that the prevailing issue will then become sleet/rain/snow mix and some combination throughout. When you need it all to go right, you fold the hand and watch with muted interest only to see how it plays out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Just trying to see if I need to buy Ginx weed or not Gotcha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Warm up even fails lol…I’m good with it though. Warm ups in early to mid Feb isn't what I prefer. If there are threats included, I'm ok with it. If not, shoot me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro completely cancelled the spring warmup potential in that Feb 17th range....instead it has overrunning threat with high pressure pressing down into our area. I’ll take that if it means something interesting prior to the long weekend. Otherwise it’s eternal November. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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