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February 2023 Obs/Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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46 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

No other guidance is really even close to what the eps are selling.

 

good luck to the folks riding the euro 

Well.. I was also entering a soupcon of sardonic intent in that.  I didn't mean that as a no way out forecast.  haha.  

The Euro shouldn't be dismissed out of hand, either - in the more objective sense.  

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mm hm.. but don't cha-guys kinda sorta get a feelin' like this is trying to get us as close as imaginatively possible without ever having it take place?

The UKMET solution?  sure, of course - that's the bate run.  While the weight of all others combined into a consensus that only toys ever closer. Therefore, when the 30" of accumulated sorrow has happened over a 0" snow pack, the models get to say, hey ... the consensus was still a miss ( either that, or they nailed the "sorrow storm"). 

Haha... I should write dystopian fiction.

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

mm hm.. but don't cha-guys kinda sorta get a feelin' like this is trying to get us as close as imaginatively possible without ever having it take place?

The UKMET solution?  sure, of course - that's the bate run.  While the weight of all others combined into a consensus that only toys ever closer. Therefore, when the 30" of accumulated sorrow has happened over a 0" snow pack, the models get to say, hey ... the consensus was still a miss ( either that, or they nailed the "sorrow storm"). 

Haha... I should write dystopian fiction.

I'm expecting nothing until the models are in good agreement on something inside of 96 hours...and that agreement might take until <48 hours in a system like this. It does have the "feel" of a close miss....however, I'll add the caveat that the GFS being the furthest SE feels pretty normal for a pure east coast cyclogenesis event. I'd prob not scoff at the Euro as much in a setup like this as some other type of system or larger scale pattern.

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm expecting nothing until the models are in good agreement on something inside of 96 hours...and that agreement might take until <48 hours in a system like this. It does have the "feel" of a close miss....however, I'll add the caveat that the GFS being the furthest SE feels pretty normal for a pure east coast cyclogenesis event. I'd prob not scoff at the Euro as much in a setup like this as some other type of system or larger scale pattern.

Yeah... that thought ( bold ) crossed the mind. 

I also told 'em a few moments ago not to dismiss the Euro out of hand, too.   I'm still objective about this.  Fun posts should be taken lightly -

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wow... yeah Scott.  Not only that... the GFS' entire extended range hemisphere has completely vacated any notion of a warm end of month.

( seems the verification of temperatures is always warmer than synoptic signaling in the last 10 years... notwithstanding) 

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12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

wow... yeah Scott.  Not only that... the GFS' entire extended range hemisphere has completely vacated any notion of a warm end of month.

( seems the verification of temperatures is always warmer than synoptic signaling in the last 10 years... notwithstanding) 

#November4evah

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1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

I dunno man, they said the pattern changed back in December. B)

The reality is, this disaster of a winter, could turn into a “see you in May” type of situation, in terms of enjoyable weather, from either side of the fence. 
Sure there will be nice days, today included but I’m certainly not going to lose sleep over weeks of 40s with intermittent rain and brief frozen events.
All you can do is just keep truckin’ on. 

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I was thinking ...for the bad luck we had in December regarding the 2 week period of a better pattern , from Ray to Me actually had some good luck getting the snow we did in January , being barely on the decent side of a gradient in two storms . That January storm where we had absolutely no high pressure in place ..that could have easily tracked thru Portland ended up delivering a solid snow fall Most of the eastern areas outside the S coast And the other one just prior (I think) where rain changed to snow N of pike and much of area saw a solid pasting between 11pm and 3am before tapering off and then restarting solid snow intensity the following morning 

 

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Mind of a 1979-80 vibe, which is my futility record. 

I’ve never been so out so soon on a winter. I mean, I was really done in December.

I’m beyond annoyed that every other post I make is some sarcastic shot at the winter that wasn’t. 

I’d much rather have a reason to stay up for the euro, post pictures of pristine snowy landscapes, and belly laugh at the buffoonery of overdone snow maps. 

We’re barely getting traces in clown range. Just end this already.

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