ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: It's a classic 'bowling' season system, actually. Spring incarnate. I realize it is just Feb 8 ... but it is what it is. This event is precisely the type referred to by the social-media vernacular, 'bowling season' Juts a guess ( lol ) but it might annoy any winter enthusiast that needs to play rationalization games. You know? hold onto internal narratives that are based on plausibility ( which by definition are seldom facts), rather than having to accept those kind of very valid observational comparisons. Rubbing it in a little bit ... but this system as described and illustrated in the modeling cinema, it is about 100% likeness to spring cut-off bowling ball. The N/stream abandoned this thing in the modeling about 4 .. 5 days ago, and no model run I've seen, since, has really demoed any attempt to reintroduce that stream interaction. It was originally dumping some modest/crucial N/stream reinvigorating dynamics ...roughly near the Dakota longitudes. Without it, the southern aspects left behind have to be more potent to feed-back on the surrounding and end up a d-drip dose. haha Anyway, it seems there is a subtle up-tick in the mechanical detection coming off the Pacific. This "slight" reason for improved optimism since 12z yesterday has been in tandem with the S/W relay off the Pacific, now situated within the more physically realized sounding domain over land. Overnight, the ensemble means did bump a little teasingly more W over the W Atl, and also 2 or so mb deeper. Not enough... Not sure we are going to get more out of this "correction". We'll see. Yeah...I stated this yesterday....anytime you have a system completely cutoff from the polar jet, you are going to have temp issues. I don't care what month it is. These have happened in January too....they are just more common in spring than winter. I did say the one redeeming factor on this one is there is a bit of a high that builds in to our north which could aid in feeding in some lower DP air, which can help in a marginal airmass....you turn what might have been a 0-1C rain storm with mangled noodles into a -0.5C blue cottonball system. I'm still pretty skeptical on this one though....doesn't seem we get quite enough dynamics on most of these runs....even a tiniest amount of PJ injection would go a long way...like you said, maybe we can find that tiny sliver in the next couple days as more of this stuff is sampled. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 ...Just when I thought I was out, winter comes back with a vengeance. Stay safe. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJln491 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 "it's a shit airmass" hmm where have I heard that before? Oh that's right, before every storm for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah...I stated this yesterday....anytime you have a system completely cutoff from the polar jet, you are going to have temp issues. I don't care what month it is. These have happened in January too....they are just more common in spring than winter. I did say the one redeeming factor on this one is there is a bit of a high that builds in to our north which could aid in feeding in some lower DP air, which can help in a marginal airmass....you turn what might have been a 0-1C rain storm with mangled noodles into a -0.5C blue cottonball system. I'm still pretty skeptical on this one though....doesn't seem we get quite enough dynamics on most of these runs....even a tiniest amount of PJ injection would go a long way...like you said, maybe we can find that tiny sliver in the next couple days as more of this stuff is sampled. Timing is everything in this particular case.. heh - even gotta thread the needle with cut-offs, which are inherently the opposite of the typical needle threader wave structure. Jesus that's a bad year LOL It seems there's window for a spike in deepening right near the lower M/A skies. but it's unclear at best whether that can translate up the coast. ah hell, it's about having anything interesting to track at all for me at this point. No sense of loss with this one. I'm really more intrigued with the complete telecon massacre setting up beyond that. Either that, or the models are fighting that signal based on biases... The last half of the month is officially in coin flip status though - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: I have 8.5" that map is spot on here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 40 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Trending NW 17/50 now have accumulation here. Mean is 4 that's 0z. 6z coming out now this will come NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 31 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: WW says this is impossible. Bob, I said I’d bet against the Carolina’s getting two feet. Obviously Anything can happen, if the set up is correct. But I’m still betting against that. Go ahead call me out on that..I bet against 23” down there every time. What’s your call for down there smart guy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 I think 06z EPS looked even a little better. Almost half get advisory snows into SNE with many getting more than that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: I think 06z EPS looked even a little better. Almost half get advisory snows into SNE with many getting more than that. This thing doesn’t seem to want to give up? Keeping it somewhat interesting at least. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I think 06z EPS looked even a little better. Almost half get advisory snows into SNE with many getting more than that. Snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Some hope towards the end of the month and most of March. I've heard some rumblings ( well.. some more than that ). I listen to one of my local meteorologists Facebook live every morning here in CT. He also mentioned that the latest data was showing some strong signals of a pattern change that could offer up a much Wintrier pattern later this month and into all of March. It's not over yet ( all we have is hope ) PS ... It was also mentioned on his Facebook live to watch this weekend's storm for us as it's only Wednesday and he could see this coming up more this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 3 minutes ago, TalcottWx said: Snow. Rain for Simsbury. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 What i expect. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Just now, dryslot said: What i expect. A Tblizz copyright. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 6 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: Some hope towards the end of the month and most of March. I've heard some rumblings ( well.. some more than that ). I listen to one of my local meteorologists Facebook live every morning here in CT. He also mentioned that the latest data was showing some strong signals of a pattern change that could offer up a much Wintrier pattern later this month and into all of March. It's not over yet ( all we have is hope ) PS ... It was also mentioned on his Facebook live to watch this weekend's storm for us as it's only Wednesday and he could see this coming up more this way. Heh … not sure about the “all of March” aspect, but there’s contention for the second half if this month, sure. There’s no valid means to asses longevity over a pattern that’s iffy. If any presenter suggests that the listener should be politely very skeptical. That actually sounds like an add on fantasy lol If anything there are longer termed planetary indicators for a warm spring - btw. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: A Tblizz copyright. Yeah, I’m pretty much checked out at this point. More interested in the beautiful weather Friday. The EPS are more than likely just stringing people along, and at some point over the next few cycles, will start to dive in the other direction. There is virtually no support for this outside of the euro, and even on that model, it takes a perfect scenario. Hard pass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I think 06z EPS looked even a little better. Almost half get advisory snows into SNE with many getting more than that. 850's are very warm throughout. Dews and surface temps are supportive for frozen. I think the reality is this is a pelt fest in most areas in subforum, where the qpf is > 0.1". The dynamic forcing is in the base of the H5 trough, which cuts off over the southern Mid Atlantic. It's an interesting look--snow-wise-- for that crew. Best to not get roped in up here, unless sleet is your thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Yeah, I’m pretty much checked out at this point. More interested in the beautiful weather Friday. The EPS are more than likely just stringing people along, and at some point over the next few cycles, will start to dive in the other direction. There is virtually no support for this outside of the euro, and even on that model, it takes a perfect scenario. Hard pass Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Heh … not sure about the “all of March” aspect, but there’s contention for the second half if this month, sure. There’s no valid means to asses longevity over a pattern that’s iffy. If any presenter suggests that the listener should be politely very skeptical. If anything there are longer termed planetary indicators for a warm spring - btw. The all of March idea was obviously a lil exaggerated…but I think his point was made…that the first half of March could be wintry. That’s a long ways off though…no trust as of now. It’s hard to believe it’s only 2/8…seems like we’ve been in this torture forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Yeah, I’m pretty much checked out at this point. More interested in the beautiful weather Friday. The EPS are more than likely just stringing people along, and at some point over the next few cycles, will start to dive in the other direction. There is virtually no support for this outside of the euro, and even on that model, it takes a perfect scenario. Hard pass Ya..I think everybody knows the caveats and low chances. But you’ll be here for 12z to see what the next cycle shows, and so will I. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Wont be long the can will be kicked to april before it gets run over by a truck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: The all of March idea was obviously a lil exaggerated…but I think his point was made…that the first half of March could be wintry. That’s a long ways off though…no trust as of now. It’s hard to believe it’s only 2/8…seems like we’ve been in this torture forever. Mm I would stick to ‘uncertainty that could break more favorably during the 2nd half of this month,’ …and leave March out if it. Just IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 6 minutes ago, TalcottWx said: Lol How many feet of snow are you expecting from this event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Ya..I think everybody knows the caveats and low chances. But you’ll be here for 12z to see what the next cycle shows, and so will I. Yeah I’ll keep hAlf an eye on it for sure. I’m guessing even if we do see snow in my area, it’s going to be mostly just slop and white rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 8 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Yeah, I’m pretty much checked out at this point. More interested in the beautiful weather Friday. The EPS are more than likely just stringing people along, and at some point over the next few cycles, will start to dive in the other direction. There is virtually no support for this outside of the euro, and even on that model, it takes a perfect scenario. Hard pass Same. I also think snow threat threads should take a hiatus and record warmth potential threads should take over for the next 2 weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 5 minutes ago, dryslot said: Wont be long the can will be kicked to april before it gets run over by a truck. You have had over 30 in two weeks your can filled with Crown 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Yeah I’ll keep hAlf an eye on it for sure. I’m guessing even if we do see snow in my area, it’s going to be mostly just slop and white rain. Yup, I’d agree. But these southern systems many times do correct north, and we do have a favorably placed high. Probably still not enough to get it done, but it’s worth a glance here and there. I agreed with your post yesterday, that you’d think we’d run into at least one system this winter at some point. It’s hard to dodge every possible winter potential in SNE all winter long. But if there’s a season that could do it…we’re in it. I’m still at 4.3” on the season…laughable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said: WW says this is impossible. ‘WW’ ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Mm I would stick to ‘uncertainty that could break more favorably during the 2nd half of this month,’ …and leave March out if it. Just IMHO. Ya I was just replying to his post about the March statement. 3/4 of this month left to go, so ya I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: ‘WW’ ? Me. WinterWolf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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