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February 2023 Obs/Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah ...it's discouraging ... If the antecedent relentless failures this winter were not the case, it'd be less offensive knowing that's all at the end of these model runs.

Because we are all insane we do the same things over and over expecting a different outcome.  We all know this will be west of us by go time but we are after all insane in the membrane.

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11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

huh, ...that's the same 4/5th wave the GGEM lifted up, too.   Two models latching onto a signal in the D8+ range in 2023 ?

that's like a dimmest kid in class winning the chess tournament

while playing the Sicilian Najdorf Poison Pawn Variation totally by mistake..

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13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS seems like 2/6 better than 2/4-5.....2/6 would have been from that shortwave that Tip was discussing that was on the heals of the 2/4 event on the OP run.

Even that is more muted vs 2/1 although that may be a function of it being in deeper clown range.

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We’re all patient but we should rightfully be skeptical after waiting 2 months through some nice patterns.  Mark, don’t equate your climate to sne.  Most ninas treat your area well.  Many rat sne but we have good ones too.   If I had to guess no one Pike south is getting 25 inches in 6 days this season

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1 minute ago, weathafella said:

We’re all patient but we should rightfully be skeptical after waiting 2 months through some nice patterns.  Mark, don’t equate your climate to sne.  Most ninas treat your area well.  Many rat sne but we have good ones too.   If I had to guess no one Pike south is getting 25 inches in 6 days this season

LFG 2/1 2/6 2/10     20 to 25

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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Just 10 more days.

We don’t know what’s going to happen in 5 days, you can try to predict what will happen 10 days out but really none of us have any idea whatsoever. MJO drives the models? Well, how do we know those MJO plots are right? They are always changing as well. I’ve come to the conclusion that forecasting beyond as far as you can realistically extrapolate real time obs is almost completely random. I’m at the point where if a model shows a blizzard 10 days out, I don’t even care because it’s just going to disappear the next run. If it’s on the models 3 days out, now that’s a different story. I’m hearing a lot of talk about the “mid Feb warmup” and then “blocking returning in March” like they are givens. I don’t get it, how can we know either of those things will happen? For all we know, Feb could be a cold snowy -nao month and then we get an early spring with no snow at all in March. Maybe we get nothing either months, and maybe both months are cold and snowy, who knows. 

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