Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,610
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

February 2023 Obs/Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
 Share

Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Who am I kidding, I'm not going anywhere..... Whether we get something or not. 25 years ago I would have been able to do these adventures with no problem as I wasn't tied down. It'll come to us at some point ( My life is actually very good, so I don't mind being tied down now )

.....just tell her you are going to visit your aunt Agnes who is ill..

Link to comment
Share on other sites

34 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

Correct...09-10 was by a whisker weak enough it did not torch but most of those snow events in 09-10 the air was barely cold enough...it was quite close to being a 97-98 repeat but things were just weak enough the pattern did not get overwhelmed 

It wasn't that it was "a whisker weak enough". It was a totally different type of el nino from the ones that torch. It was the polar opposite of 97-98..not remotely close and total opposite from it on the modoki spectrum.

A better way to phrase it is that if it were slightly stronger, than it probably would have been more east based and canonical on the modoki spectrum. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It adds insult to injury IMO. I'd rather just torch the whole east coast.

If i was following this for several days and it slipped just south and hit Philly to NYC / Long Island that would bother me , This has been trending south for days , I hope some weenie in Raleigh is born , but even so I’m not buying this storm doing much for anyone as of now 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Nice model war in clown range. EPS way colder than GEFS. 

 

The GEFS IMO the last 6 weeks has been a bit too strong with the SER in the D10-15 time period...it probably has still overall been winning the war on the idea but I think for sure the less happy EPS/GEPS (most of the time anyway) on the SER idea have been better since December

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think that is more for the 13th. But it's on real life support. I saw the member distribution. 

It’s the Saturday night through Sunday night threat on guidance. EPS is more of a Sunday deal the 12th. 10 of 51 ensembles have a warning snow from me to you.  Let’s see if the signal can at least hold or intensify at 00z, every other threat just vanishes after showing a positive run. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Switch

EPS still has the potential heat burst before that…but beyond 2/20, EPS looks to go for a much colder CONUS look…we’d still get some mild wx at times through 2/23ish, but then it looks a lot colder after that. We’ll see. I don’t trust any LR guidance at the moment for good reason…but that look is starting to become somewhat persistent on the Euro products. GEFS still not buying it. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

It’s the Saturday night through Sunday night threat on guidance. EPS is more of a Sunday deal the 12th. 10 of 51 ensembles have a warning snow from me to you.  Let’s see if the signal can at least hold or intensify at 00z, every other threat just vanishes after showing a positive run. 

Yeah I'd say Sunday into Monday-ish....but I'll sell that for now. A few drunk members skewing it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

 

49AA001D-8718-4669-883E-1C4E973A3A8A.png

DB7BE220-728D-46D2-A934-C1C493C06D51.png

Yeah good illustration of the differences. Look at the ridge axis on EPS…it’s in the gulf of Alaska versus the Aleutians on GEFS. About a 600-800 mile difference and it matters. EPS has a hint of an Aleutian low forming way on the left side of that image whereas none in site on GEFS. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS still has the potential heat burst before that…but beyond 2/20, EPS looks to go for a much colder CONUS look…we’d still get some mild wx at times through 2/23ish, but then it looks a lot colder after that. We’ll see. I don’t trust any LR guidance at the moment for good reason…but that look is starting to become somewhat persistent on the Euro products. GEFS still not buying it. 

yup...last 10 days of the month. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

The EC has the MJO wave progress steadily into phase 8 while the GEFS kills the wave in 7 (Typhoon said this would happen).

Likely the reason for the difference in the ensembles.

So the question is which way will it go. Is there one that would be more reliable than the other? Does one have more support than the other?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Well Let’s get them all some roofies and get a Super Bowl Sunday snowstorm. 

All rain and no snow makes Jack a dull boy All rain and no snow makes Jack a dull boy All rain and no snow makes Jack a dull boy All rain and no snow makes Jack a dull boy All rain and no snow makes Jack a dull boy All rain and no snow makes Jack a dull boy All rain and no snow makes Jack a dull boy All rain and no snow makes Jack a dull boy 

  • Haha 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

It’s the Saturday night through Sunday night threat on guidance. EPS is more of a Sunday deal the 12th. 10 of 51 ensembles have a warning snow from me to you.  Let’s see if the signal can at least hold or intensify at 00z, every other threat just vanishes after showing a positive run. 

Sell hard 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...