Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I love when folks say congrats Carolinas…I mean I realize that means it’s way south of SNE, but if we have no cold air for that system, how could they? I mean I guess they get a rainstorm out of it, and we stay dry. It’s called dynamic cooling. Verbatim the gfs gave the Carolinas a snowstorm while we are mild. It can happen. Will it happen probably not. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said: It’s called dynamic cooling. Verbatim the gfs gave the Carolinas a snowstorm while we are mild. It can happen. Will it happen probably not. Lol…we can’t get dynamic cooling to save our life this year, but 700 miles south will? Ya that ain’t happening. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Lol…we can’t get dynamic cooling to save our life this year, but 700 miles south will? Ya that ain’t happening. We’d def all melt if this happens. It’s highly unlikely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Clownanigans 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Sigh…At least the sun doesn’t go down until after 5pm now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Weenie me all you want, but good luck with those amounts with those temps and 10:1 assumptions down there. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: We’d def all melt if this happens. It’s highly unlikely. Ya we would. That is not happening though. That’s a clown map if ever there was one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 17 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I love when folks say congrats Carolinas…I mean I realize that means it’s way south of SNE, but if we have no cold air for that system, how could they? I mean I guess they get a rainstorm out of it, and we stay dry. Why do we care so much if it shows snow down there? Lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 7 minutes ago, dendrite said: Weenie me all you want, but good luck with those amounts with those temps and 10:1 assumptions down there. We all know how snow maps work lol the point is: it’s a modeled snow event there and not here verbatim that’s all we take from it. It’s the Gfs Next run it’ll be congrats somewhere else. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Right. I'm sure there are plenty of years which featured a pronounced dearth of snow not comensurste with the degree of opportunity. This was my point about distinguishing between a rat pattern and rat results. Some were rat on both respects...this year on results. But I'm sorry, an extreme NAO block like that near the winter solstice is not a rat pattern. Find that in 2011 or 2001...or 2006.If you look at 97-98 the NAO and AO actually weren’t bad. The problem was the super Nino displacing the Aleutian low over AK resulting in ++EPO and PAC air completely flooding the pattern. Had it not been for the super Nino, that probably would have been a decent winter, there were plenty of storms with the very active STJ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 12 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: Sigh…At least the sun doesn’t go down until after 5pm now more sun angle too. Burning the candle at both ends. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: We all know how snow maps work lol the point is: it’s a modeled snow event there and not here verbatim that’s all we take from it. It’s the Gfs Next run it’ll be congrats somewhere else. Sure. And I agree with you that as modeled it's pretty dynamic and obviously I agree that it can snow down there and be a nice 45F day up here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Spectacular frozen water falls on the highway. My wife was driving at 70 so tough to get a good picture. looks like route 2 coming into Norwich? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 17 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: We’d def all melt if this happens. It’s highly unlikely. I pray for this to verify. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 May come stormin' back N whence the relay gets underway this evening and overnight. Not a forecast - but there is a non-zero probability that this thing's missing something due to assimilation over the E Pac. Some of this system's getting lost to us in recent runs is also related to the handling of the western ridge and the N/stream sliding over top of it. We had some implications for phasing up through a couple day's ago, but now the ridge is positively tilting and the N/stream is displacing E of the southern aspect ...thus missing phasing. Not sure if that part can correct and probably won't, but in the off chance the southern aspect relays in stronger it could adjust that along the EC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 8 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: more sun angle too. Burning the candle at both ends. It feels really good outside today. 33F and sunshine. First day I noticed the steep south facing cuts by the road getting torched to bare ground, while as soon as the ground angle changes away from south there’s a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 If this thing stays south and Virginia & North Carolina get a dumping of snow, we need to shut this forum down... Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 34 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I love when folks say congrats Carolinas…I mean I realize that means it’s way south of SNE, but if we have no cold air for that system, how could they? I mean I guess they get a rainstorm out of it, and we stay dry. Deepends on the strength of the ULL. Also in WNC we have something called elevation that helps tremendously. And I don't mean a measly 1000' but 3500' plus which helps us out a lot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 11 minutes ago, snowman19 said: If you look at 97-98 the NAO and AO actually weren’t bad. The problem was the super Nino displacing the Aleutian low over AK resulting in ++EPO and PAC air completely flooding the pattern. Had it not been for the super Nino, that probably would have been a decent winter, there were plenty of storms with the very active STJ Right, but the problem in December 2022 was that the PV lobe was pinned underneath the block too far to the west, which also pulled the blizzard back to the west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Just now, Snowcrazed71 said: If this thing stays south and Virginia & North Carolina get a dumping of snow, we need to shut this forum down... Lol Either that or take the December Winter Train to Virginia and North Carolina! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 6 minutes ago, powderfreak said: It feels really good outside today. 33F and sunshine. First day I noticed the steep south facing cuts by the road getting torched to bare ground, while as soon as the ground angle changes away from south there’s a foot. what a day to be skiing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 19 minutes ago, snowman19 said: If you look at 97-98 the NAO and AO actually weren’t bad. The problem was the super Nino displacing the Aleutian low over AK resulting in ++EPO and PAC air completely flooding the pattern. Had it not been for the super Nino, that probably would have been a decent winter, there were plenty of storms with the very active STJ Correct...09-10 was by a whisker weak enough it did not torch but most of those snow events in 09-10 the air was barely cold enough...it was quite close to being a 97-98 repeat but things were just weak enough the pattern did not get overwhelmed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Looks like PSM wasn't climbing high enough for the Pope today so he broke through the fence and burned the equipment to the ground. No obs since 16z. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 45 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: We’d def all melt if this happens. It’s highly unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 The new Euro is very similar to the GFS, only difference, it doesn’t go crazy with the dynamic cooling down south like the GFS did. It’s all rain outside of the mountains 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 18 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Either that or take the December Winter Train to Virginia and North Carolina! I'm in. I'm in. Haven't had a good adventure in a long time. My other half can stay home with our daughter lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 3 hours ago, wx2fish said: Problem today is its really inverted aloft. No chance of mixing those 850s Nice catch. Cursory looks have their pitfalls. 925 for the loss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 11 minutes ago, dendrite said: Looks like PSM wasn't climbing high enough for the Pope today so he broke through the fence and burned the equipment to the ground. No obs since 16z. You didn't see anything. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Just now, Snowcrazed71 said: I'm in. I'm in. Haven't had a good adventure in a long time. My other half can stay home with our daughter lol 10-1 that while you are on the train a freak blizzard happens in your area! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 1 minute ago, Great Snow 1717 said: 10-1 that while you are on the train a freak blizzard happens in your area! Who am I kidding, I'm not going anywhere..... Whether we get something or not. 25 years ago I would have been able to do these adventures with no problem as I wasn't tied down. It'll come to us at some point ( My life is actually very good, so I don't mind being tied down now ) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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