snowman19 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 There is cold air Stop lyingRight, big arctic high to the north. Downright frigid! Are you happy now? Feel better? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 so much anger 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: so much anger Hate to see it. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Spectacular frozen water falls on the highway. My wife was driving at 70 so tough to get a good picture. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Winter 22/23 has been reduced to frozen water over rocks. Nothing against you Steve....I just found this hilarious. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 34 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: the AO plot that is being posted is through the 20th or so. any impacts from the SSW, if it occurs, would be felt in March, so the tweet is a bit intellectually dishonest. but that's par for the course there if one is going to use model guidance, it should go out far enough, and the GEFS extended and Weeklies both show a -NAO favored, likely from the SPV disruption/split That tweet was from a wx watcher lol. No clue 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Winter 22/23 has been reduced to frozen water over rocks. Nothing against you Steve....I just found this hilarious. You have told me in the past you love these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah 40s up there probably won't happen. 35 here at noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: You have told me in the past you love these. It is cool...it just struck me in a different way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 29 here with clouds and evaporational cooling off the water. Where's my 40s. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 37 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: the AO plot that is being posted is through the 20th or so. any impacts from the SSW, if it occurs, would be felt in March, so the tweet is a bit intellectually dishonest. but that's par for the course there if one is going to use model guidance, it should go out far enough, and the GEFS extended and Weeklies both show a -NAO favored, likely from the SPV disruption/split Sun angle might be a problem by then, but isn't a negative NAO starting to become less negative (Euro weeklies) a signal for a winter storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Low DP’s past two days so not a lot of melting going on here. The same can’t be said for this subforum. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 3 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: Sun angle might be a problem by then, but isn't a negative NAO starting to become less negative (Euro weeklies) a signal for a winter storm? it generally is, but you'll never see that on a mean. I just like to see the trend towards blocking developing, especially when there are stratospheric impacts over the next week or so... makes it feel a little bit more secure since there'd be a particular reason for it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 GFS still not even throwing us a 70F bone this winter like the euro is. You just know the GFS is going to win that one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 30F. Feb sun doing it's thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 50 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Problem is that some fail to differentiate the pattern from the result....there is a spectrum of sorts. This year is merely a subpar pattern with a ratter result. For our latitude (S NH to route 2 ) I would say it was a subpar pattern . Such a huge gradient pattern when you throw consistently above normal temperatures and above normal precip with very similar storm tracks . I think it makes some “sense” the way it shook out with up and in getting the most (caribou and other areas now above normal) and then a few steep Cut offs until you reach futility land S of Pike . It was (has been ) A truly *incredibly persistent pattern* In someways . For S coastal sne and particularly NYC I think It was a ratter pattern that just was abnormal in the sense it persisted without deviation That being said ..it’s not automatically over 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GFS still not even throwing us a 70F bone this winter like the euro is. You just know the GFS is going to win that one. Was just thinking that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 40 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Congrats Carolinas! We are hoping. It's crazy some of our sites down here have had more snow than some of the places up here even though we are still well below average in snowfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 21 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Low DP’s past two days so not a lot of melting going on here. The same can’t be said for this subforum. Just a continuous 12 month melt from a rat winter to a crappy spring that eventually leads to another hot summeh drought which turns into an subpar foilage season in the fall. Just non stop bitching about the desired weather outcomes not coming to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 52 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: so much anger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 1 hour ago, DavisStraight said: I just want to use my snowblower at least once this year. I warmed mine up in December to make sure it would be ready when needed. I should have known better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 7, 2023 Author Share Posted February 7, 2023 34F in the tropics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 33 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Just a continuous 12 month melt from a rat winter to a crappy spring that eventually leads to another hot summeh drought which turns into an subpar foilage season in the fall. Just non stop bitching about the desired weather outcomes not coming to fruition. I didn't think the summer was that hot .... I mean, we own the nocturnal inferno thing. But the days seemed retrained some beneath memorability. Ha, namely ...I don't personally remember that as a hot day-time exposure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 51 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: For our latitude (S NH to route 2 ) I would say it was a subpar pattern . Such a huge gradient pattern when you throw consistently above normal temperatures and above normal precip with very similar storm tracks . I think it makes some “sense” the way it shook out with up and in getting the most (caribou and other areas now above normal) and then a few steep Cut offs until you reach futility land S of Pike . It was (has been ) A truly *incredibly persistent pattern* In someways . For S coastal sne and particularly NYC I think It was a ratter pattern that just was abnormal in the sense it persisted without deviation That being said ..it’s not automatically over It wasn't a ratter pattern even there. Look at December...that was awful luck. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It wasn't a ratter pattern even there. Look at December...that was awful luck. I think 10 days Of a strong block and getting nothing for nyc has probably produced bad luck many times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 20 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I didn't think the summer was that hot .... I mean, we own the nocturnal inferno thing. But the days seemed retrained some beneath memorability. Ha, namely ...I don't personally remember that as a hot day-time exposure. Early august heat wave was pretty legit. Lots of upper 90s in that one. But I agree in the larger scale of recent summers. The humidity I think caps the high temp potential…we want those EML type heat bursts on WNW flow in order to rip a 102F or 103F in the 128-495 belt but we just rarely get them in recent years. Instead we get plenty of 94/72 type Bahamas blue garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 11 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I think 10 days Of a strong block and getting nothing for nyc has probably produced bad luck many times Right. I'm sure there are plenty of years which featured a pronounced dearth of snow not comensurste with the degree of opportunity. This was my point about distinguishing between a rat pattern and rat results. Some were rat on both respects...this year on results. But I'm sorry, an extreme NAO block like that near the winter solstice is not a rat pattern. Find that in 2011 or 2001...or 2006. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 25 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I didn't think the summer was that hot .... I mean, we own the nocturnal inferno thing. But the days seemed retrained some beneath memorability. Ha, namely ...I don't personally remember that as a hot day-time exposure. Anything above 85/65 is hot to me lol. July to August was AN but we did not have a big memorable heat wave IIRC. Lots of 92/70 type of stuff. We probably had a mid 90 stretch somewhere but if BDL ain’t hitting 110 these-days, it’s forgotten. (I kid). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 The focus in winter seasonal forecasting is on the pattern....H5 plots, etc. This is why I try to add in text narrative explicitly outlining how I expect the season to evolve, which includes snowfall, etc...that is the result. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 I love when folks say congrats Carolinas…I mean I realize that means it’s way south of SNE, but if we have no cold air for that system, how could they? I mean I guess they get a rainstorm out of it, and we stay dry. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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