February 2023 Obs/Discussion

[weathafella]

1 hour ago, George001 said:

The SSW is trending stronger on the models. This is actually starting to get really interesting, yes there is a lag but in New England March is a winter month. There are no guarantees the SSW will be favorable for us, but a shake up of the current pattern is welcome. Id rather roll the dice and hope for the best with an SSW than just be stuck in our current (awful) pattern. If things do pan out with the SSW, I disagree that it will be too late. Early March is just in time for a potential 3 week run of storm after storm. 3 weeks isn’t a super long time, but in a favorable pattern nearly an entire seasons worth of snow or even more in 3 weeks can happen (especially areas closer to the coast).

Looks to me like western trough continues.  One can hope it lasts until October at this point.  SSW (as Will implied) is becoming one of the frauds.

[dmcginvt]

1 hour ago, George001 said:

The SSW is trending stronger on the models. This is actually starting to get really interesting, yes there is a lag but in New England March is a winter month. There are no guarantees the SSW will be favorable for us, but a shake up of the current pattern is welcome. Id rather roll the dice and hope for the best with an SSW than just be stuck in our current (awful) pattern. If things do pan out with the SSW, I disagree that it will be too late. Early March is just in time for a potential 3 week run of storm after storm. 3 weeks isn’t a super long time, but in a favorable pattern nearly an entire seasons worth of snow or even more in 3 weeks can happen (especially areas closer to the coast).

Man you are too much.  You need to move North.  You attempt to will everything that could possibly happen in a positive sense for snow lovers.  I think you are now trying to temper it by adding things like (awful) pattern but you are missing the point of who you are speaking with and not realizing that most of the snow lovers on this board don't give a shit about 2 ft of wet snow that will melt in 2 days in March.  They want snow storm after snow storm that adds depth and stays.  Snow everywhere all the time.  Winter wonderland, in winter.  It's happened before, it will happen again, but thats what they want!  Will they be happy with that late season dump sure, overjoyed, no, because they didnt get to experience the joy of the years it happened before.  When it lasted. 

This winter has sucked in Vermont, it's been bad, but we have snow and now we've had it for weeks just like we should because it's Vermont.  I want more but Im ok, but I can feel the pain of my homies down south.  There have been years where they get more and we still do ok on nickel and dime.  But this year I truly feel bad, as my god you just cant win down there this year.  

There's nothing wrong with being positive, but you kind of take it to a delusional level.  Sometimes you just have to say, this just isnt the year. Enjoy what the future shows from modeling, this year, it's been nothing but bad news for almost everyone on the east coast. 

  

 

  

[40/70 Benchmark]

23 minutes ago, dmcginvt said:

Man you are too much.  You need to move North.  You attempt to will everything that could possibly happen in a positive sense for snow lovers.  I think you are now trying to temper it by adding things like (awful) pattern but you are missing the point of who you are speaking with and not realizing that most of the snow lovers on this board don't give a shit about 2 ft of wet snow that will melt in 2 days in March.  They want snow storm after snow storm that adds depth and stays.  Snow everywhere all the time.  Winter wonderland, in winter.  It's happened before, it will happen again, but thats what they want!  Will they be happy with that late season dump sure, overjoyed, no, because they didnt get to experience the joy of the years it happened before.  When it lasted. 

This winter has sucked in Vermont, it's been bad, but we have snow and now we've had it for weeks just like we should because it's Vermont.  I want more but Im ok, but I can feel the pain of my homies down south.  There have been years where they get more and we still do ok on nickel and dime.  But this year I truly feel bad, as my god you just cant win down there this year.  

There's nothing wrong with being positive, but you kind of take it to a delusional level.  Sometimes you just have to say, this just isnt the year. Enjoy what the future shows from modeling, this year, it's been nothing but bad news for almost everyone on the east coast. 

  

 

  

BS Most of the snow lovers on this board will take 2 feet anytime. Is December preferable to March? Sure.

[dmcginvt]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

BS Most of the snow lovers on this board will take 2 feet anytime. Is December preferable to March? Sure.

ok maybe 2 ft was pushing it, 3/4-6/2003 in methuen, I was there, I can still see my wife's car buried in the andover t parking lot!!

[CoastalWx]

4 hours ago, dmcginvt said:

ok maybe 2 ft was pushing it, 3/4-6/2003 in methuen, I was there, I can still see my wife's car buried in the andover t parking lot!!

That was 2001.

[dendrite]

7 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Maybe a wild March just like 2018?

Stay thirsty my friend

[UnitedWx]

7 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Everyone starting to hype up the strat warming event .

Maybe a wild March just like 2018?

Hype is your key takeaway word...

[UnitedWx]

10 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Stay thirsty my friend

He doesn't always get snow.... but when he does, it makes his weenie grow 

[UnitedWx]

Meanwhile 6Z GFS offering up some hope for mixed scraps to rain in SNE on the 13th

[HIPPYVALLEY]

15/8. Didn’t expect to drop that low. 

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

15/8. Didn’t expect to drop that low. 

Yea sneaky cold this morning 19⁰

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

15/8. Didn’t expect to drop that low. 

25/11

 

[Ginx snewx]

10 hours ago, radarman said:

No argumentative tone... honest question here... what is the basis for this 20 day rule for propagation down to the troposphere?   When I go back through past events I don't see it.  There may be examples of such, particularly 2003 which was used as a paradigm in a lot of the original literature, but over time it's my opinion that 03 has been proven to be largely a one off, and has not representative of a standard behavioral model.  There's plenty of other examples of the propagation downward occurring on shorter, even much shorter timescales too.  Or not propagating downward at all.  

I don't think there is anything inherent in a SSW that determines if it will propagate downward and eventually weaken the PV, just that other signals are dominant and ultimately determine the fate of it.  Also my opinion that the +GPH anomaly over the pole that drove down the record airmass may well have been associated with the U wind reversal that occurred in late jan, at 10 or so day lag.  Or maybe it's just coincidence.  Funny we didn't hear anything from the experts about an impending SSW (that did actually occur) when the wave2 and wave 3 signals spiked in mid Jan, now they're crowing for some unknown reason... hopefully the models are indeed onto something that I don't understand if that's the basis for the excitement.

Did you say wind reversal?

[Spanks45]

Yeah, lack of snow in the future, didn't pay attention to the forecast....15⁰/10⁰ here, at this point just expected 40s/20s this week.

[powderfreak]

-2F

Wasn’t really expecting that this morning.  It’s actually cold out.

-4F and -5F for HIE/BML while MWN is 27F.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 hour ago, UnitedWx said:

Meanwhile 6Z GFS offering up some hope for mixed scraps to rain in SNE on the 13th

This has been the strangest winter in my lifetime. Lows along the BM with no cold to tap into, continuous WC troughing, plenty of rain to satisfy Stein, and when we finally get cold it’s dry Siberia. 80s on roids.
 

The good news is the atmosphere is capable of being ultra persistent so you have to think one winter it could be this favorable for us…with continuous EC troughing and trains of snows. A lighter Feb15 type of persistency but longer. 

[CoastalWx]

12 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Did you say wind reversal?

Talk to me when it gets to 50 MB. And also it looks more like a displacement versus a total split.

[Hoth]

13 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

This has been the strangest winter in my lifetime. Lows along the BM with no cold to tap into, continuous WC troughing, plenty of rain to satisfy Stein, and when we finally get cold it’s dry Siberia. 80s on roids.
 

The good news is the atmosphere is capable of being ultra persistent so you have to think one winter it could be this favorable for us…with continuous EC troughing and trains of snows. A lighter Feb15 type of persistency but longer. 

I blame Tonga for the weirdness. I have no scientific basis for it, but I blame it all the same...

[CoastalWx]

Let’s just focus on the 70F chances after mid month. That’s the only interesting thing I see. Even “up there.”

[Damage In Tolland]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Let’s just focus on the 70F chances after mid month. That’s the only interesting thing I see. Even “up there.”

Looks like , we’re in for nasty weather 

 

[butterfish55]

Let’s just focus on the 70F chances after mid month. That’s the only interesting thing I see. Even “up there.”

Install this weekend?

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Not as if the shades were ever open here, but definitely time to close them in SNE, probably permanently

[ORH_wxman]

20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Let’s just focus on the 70F chances after mid month. That’s the only interesting thing I see. Even “up there.”

GFs is trying to cancel it. Still there on euro though. 

[Allsnow]

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Looks like , we’re in for nasty weather 

 

Your bet looking better and better by the day 

[mahk_webstah]

22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Let’s just focus on the 70F chances after mid month. That’s the only interesting thing I see. Even “up there.”

yeah looks like everything is gone for the weekend.  All the better as I'm going to Philly to watch the game with friends and hopefully celebrate on Broad Street.  Lets melt it up here and then have fun as a whole forum late Feb early March!

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFs is trying to cancel it. Still there on euro though. 

I saw. Would be fitting to get porked this year for anything we desire lol.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

yeah looks like everything is gone for the weekend.  All the better as I'm going to Philly to watch the game with friends and hopefully celebrate on Broad Street.  Lets melt it up here and then have fun as a whole forum late Feb early March!

I’d rather you guys keep it. Going up north in less than two weeks.

[Cold Miser]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I saw. Would be fitting to get porked this year for anything we desire lol.

Porked, even for trying to reach futility.  That would be a first.

[Spanks45]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFs is trying to cancel it. Still there on euro though. 

and somehow the GFS will be right....Despite the massive positive anomalies for January, it never really felt "warm". Maybe so much cloud cover? A torch at this point would be very much welcomed, with some sun hopefully

[George001]

7 hours ago, dmcginvt said:

Man you are too much.  You need to move North.  You attempt to will everything that could possibly happen in a positive sense for snow lovers.  I think you are now trying to temper it by adding things like (awful) pattern but you are missing the point of who you are speaking with and not realizing that most of the snow lovers on this board don't give a shit about 2 ft of wet snow that will melt in 2 days in March.  They want snow storm after snow storm that adds depth and stays.  Snow everywhere all the time.  Winter wonderland, in winter.  It's happened before, it will happen again, but thats what they want!  Will they be happy with that late season dump sure, overjoyed, no, because they didnt get to experience the joy of the years it happened before.  When it lasted. 

This winter has sucked in Vermont, it's been bad, but we have snow and now we've had it for weeks just like we should because it's Vermont.  I want more but Im ok, but I can feel the pain of my homies down south.  There have been years where they get more and we still do ok on nickel and dime.  But this year I truly feel bad, as my god you just cant win down there this year.  

There's nothing wrong with being positive, but you kind of take it to a delusional level.  Sometimes you just have to say, this just isnt the year. Enjoy what the future shows from modeling, this year, it's been nothing but bad news for almost everyone on the east coast. 

  

 

  

I get what you are saying, and yes I am kind of grasping at straws with the SSW stuff but just because the odds aren’t in our favor doesn’t mean I’m going to stop tracking. You are wrong about March though, it is possible to build a pack in March. Look at March 2018, we got buried and held on to a pack for a couple of weeks. If it doesn’t snow here, it doesn’t snow. There is nothing I can do about it besides moving north like you said. I’ll be happy to track rainstorms if we keep getting them, because they are fun to track as well. Also not everyone here likes snow, Torch Tiger, snowman19, and qqomega like warmer weather.