February 2023 Obs/Discussion

[ORH_wxman]

Weeklies are trying for one last hurrah period for late Feb through mid-March. They actually have some sustained western ridging that is supported by a solid Aleutian low.

I'll believe it when I see it, but I'm just the messenger here.

[ORH_wxman]

24 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

heh...as a morbid experiment... if you took every day's worth of temperature and cloud cover averages for this winter, and averaged them out, I bet that mean would look and feel just exactly like right at this moment.  

This ... this is our winter, 2022-2023  lol

Yep...42F and overcast here with a brisk wind. Utterly useless.

[MJO812]

Euro MJO going into 7 and 8. Maybe we will get better luck towards the end of the month into March.

[Snowcrazed71]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro MJO going into 7 and 8. Maybe we will get better luck towards the end of the month into March.

Well with the way this season has gone, it would be nice to go out with the bang. Least will leave on a good note. If not, we have next year. 

[NW_of_GYX]

For those of us in CAD land the euro and gfs are starting to come into agreement for Thursday. Looking like a net gainer type deal for now. 
 

 

[metagraphica]

Swing and a miss.  Might not have been snow but might have been interesting in it's own right.

[mahk_webstah]

30 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said:

For those of us in CAD land the euro and gfs are starting to come into agreement for Thursday. Looking like a net gainer type deal for now. 
 

 

I dunno.  This could end up warm but maybe we’ll radiate we’d night and stay frozen?

[RDRY]

That upper low seems to be gaining steam on the models. Could get interesting.

[dryslot]

Congrats Mid Atlantic on the 18z GFS.

[WinterWolf]

18z shananigans as usual. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Well that’s interesting on 18z gfs . I’m definitely a bit interested now, close call miss to our south. 

[NW_of_GYX]

6 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I dunno.  This could end up warm but maybe we’ll radiate we’d night and stay frozen?

Not expecting much but can’t deny the classic CAD signal. 3” thump to drizzle would be a win in This pattern 

[Damage In Tolland]

Keep drinking and chewing. It’ll look like a model blizzard in an hour 

[mahk_webstah]

1 minute ago, NW_of_GYX said:

Not expecting much but can’t deny the classic CAD signal. 3” thump to drizzle would be a win in This pattern 

Depends on what happens in the week to 10 days following from my perspective. I want it to melt out if it’s going to get really warm next week. Then we can start over again for a little late season run. If it’s not going to get warm for long, but I would hope for a net gain from this week.

[Torch Tiger]

Beautiful sunset with a mild temp, great outdoorsy night

[Damage In Tolland]

The next 10 days of Napril from Hammer on NBC 30.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Torch Tiger said:

Beautiful sunset with a mild temp, great outdoorsy night

Not here it isn’t…overcast and damp cool 42 degrees..sucks. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Keep drinking and chewing. It’ll look like a model blizzard in an hour 

I’m all for sneaking in a snow event in between warm weeks. Let’s work some Kevin reverse psychology and get this to snow. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I’m all for sneaking in a snow event in between warm weeks. Let’s work some Kevin reverse psychology and get this to snow. 

We can’t rule out a rain to snow scenario Saturday night . That is possible.. but it would be even more marginal than the event 2 weeks ago today 

[brooklynwx99]

45 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Weeklies are trying for one last hurrah period for late Feb through mid-March. They actually have some sustained western ridging that is supported by a solid Aleutian low.

I'll believe it when I see it, but I'm just the messenger here.

I think the main reason for that is the major SSW event that the weeklies are predicting. pretty much every member flips zonal winds negative, and some do for a prolonged period of time. this would be a serious reason to believe in a shake-up

this is also getting to within a medium range timeframe for this kind of stuff... this isn't 2-3 weeks out as it's been all winter. the initial disruption occurs in a few days, and the strong dipole over Greenland is a classic way to get strong heat fluxes into the stratosphere. in other words, I don't believe that this is voodoo, so to speak. the pattern that's causing the house of cards to collapse is currently ongoing

the mean has 10 m/s easterlies between the 13-17th... taking into account a lag of about three weeks, this takes us to the first week of March, which is when the Weeklies and extended GEFS both develop pretty legit blocking given the lead time. there's an actual 50/50 signal with a trough into Europe. both the AO and NAO flip solidly negative, which makes sense given an obliterated SPV

it's also peculiar that blocking hasn't returned since the spell in December... almost invariably, blocking returns at some point in the winter after coming on that strong in December. I don't have the stats here, but the correlation between highly anomalous Dec blocking and returning blocking in Jan-Mar is very high

either way, I'm honestly intrigued about March now, and I know that @40/70 Benchmark has been for a while, too. obviously, the standard caveats apply with the SSW stuff... the effects still need to couple to the troposphere, after all, but this is a legitimate pattern driver that can deliver some anomalous blocking. at least it's something to think about while the blinds are closed from like the 13th until the last week of the month. it's also worth noting that Feb 2018 also absolutely roasted before March happened

[STILL N OF PIKE]

41 minutes ago, metagraphica said:

Swing and a miss.  Might not have been snow but might have been interesting in it's own right.

Looks potent - 

[qg_omega]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I think the main reason for that is the major SSW event that the weeklies are predicting. pretty much every member flips zonal winds negative, and some do for a prolonged period of time. this would be a serious reason to believe in a shake-up

this is also getting to within a medium range timeframe for this kind of stuff... this isn't 2-3 weeks out as it's been all winter. the initial disruption occurs in a few days, and the strong dipole over Greenland is a classic way to get strong heat fluxes into the stratosphere. in other words, I don't believe that this is voodoo, so to speak. the pattern that's causing the house of cards to collapse is currently ongoing

the mean has 10 m/s easterlies between the 13-17th... taking into account a lag of about three weeks, this takes us to the first week of March, which is when the Weeklies and extended GEFS both develop pretty legit blocking given the lead time. there's an actual 50/50 signal with a trough into Europe. both the AO and NAO flip solidly negative, which makes sense given an obliterated SPV

it's also peculiar that blocking hasn't returned since the spell in December... almost invariably, blocking returns at some point in the winter after coming on that strong in December. I don't have the stats here, but the correlation between highly anomalous Dec blocking and returning blocking in Jan-Mar is very high

either way, I'm honestly intrigued about March now, and I know that @40/70 Benchmark has been for a while, too. obviously, the standard caveats apply with the SSW stuff... the effects still need to couple to the troposphere, after all, but this is a legitimate pattern driver that can deliver some anomalous blocking. at least it's something to think about while the blinds are closed from like the 13th until the last week of the month. it's also worth noting that Feb 2018 also absolutely roasted before March happened

 

[brooklynwx99]

5 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

 

if we're going to go on Twitter to get our ideas, might as well get them from someone who researches this stuff. Lee doesn't honk either, so it's striking seeing him use this kind of verbiage. SSWs are kind of all or nothing when they're that strong, but I'm fine with going for broke at this point

 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We can’t rule out a rain to snow scenario Saturday night . That is possible.. but it would be even more marginal than the event 2 weeks ago today 

No doubt . It’s 100% thread the needle. It’s in the 40s at precip start time, hopefully we trend this a bit more dynamic and flip earlier and colder. 

[Typhoon Tip]

29 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I think the main reason for that is the major SSW event that the weeklies are predicting. pretty much every member flips zonal winds negative, and some do for a prolonged period of time. this would be a serious reason to believe in a shake-up

this is also getting to within a medium range timeframe for this kind of stuff... this isn't 2-3 weeks out as it's been all winter. the initial disruption occurs in a few days, and the strong dipole over Greenland is a classic way to get strong heat fluxes into the stratosphere. in other words, I don't believe that this is voodoo, so to speak. the pattern that's causing the house of cards to collapse is currently ongoing

the mean has 10 m/s easterlies between the 13-17th... taking into account a lag of about three weeks, this takes us to the first week of March, which is when the Weeklies and extended GEFS both develop pretty legit blocking given the lead time. there's an actual 50/50 signal with a trough into Europe. both the AO and NAO flip solidly negative, which makes sense given an obliterated SPV

it's also peculiar that blocking hasn't returned since the spell in December... almost invariably, blocking returns at some point in the winter after coming on that strong in December. I don't have the stats here, but the correlation between highly anomalous Dec blocking and returning blocking in Jan-Mar is very high

either way, I'm honestly intrigued about March now, and I know that @40/70 Benchmark has been for a while, too. obviously, the standard caveats apply with the SSW stuff... the effects still need to couple to the troposphere, after all, but this is a legitimate pattern driver that can deliver some anomalous blocking. at least it's something to think about while the blinds are closed from like the 13th until the last week of the month. it's also worth noting that Feb 2018 also absolutely roasted before March happened

If an SSW happens now ... and proves to be a downward propagating phenomenon/mass ... through the vertical coordinates of the stratospheric column, the tropopausal interaction times for early March... If said evolutionary arc begins in a week, it times for mid March... and so on. There is no -AO correlation prior to that time lagged offset.

That's awfully late in the solar calendar.  The mid latitude flow may be breaking down?  That's the climate for that time of year March --> ... hense 'bowling season'  Cut offs that if timed right, can produce like April '97, but far more commonly they ruin 10 days with 39 F light rain. That is the total circuiting manifold of the AO beginning to disconnect as that month moves on.  In a La Nina year with a history of actually being better coupled (more so than the last year and prior..>)... mm.   La Nina notoriously favor warmer springs.  It's like we are running out of time for SSWs, made even worse by the latter climo suggestion.  

We could actually fit mid month's warm up...followed by a would-be attempt at a 2 week recovery... then fade, nicely prior to any influence at mid latitudes by an SSW ... mid March.   When they are that late... I just wouldn't put much hope in that if I were the crew.

 

[radarman]

15 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

if we're going to go on Twitter to get our ideas, might as well get them from someone who researches this stuff. Lee doesn't honk either, so it's striking seeing him use this kind of verbiage. SSWs are kind of all or nothing when they're that strong, but I'm fine with going for broke at this point

 

Really we just had one... Maybe it gets some credit for the cold shot, but the overall pattern seems to have shrugged it off... I guess you keep playing the odds and hope it works out?

And frankly, I'm not really sure what they're seeing that makes them bullish about another one upcoming.  Wave 2 is dead.  Wave 3 is meh.

 

 

[Torch Tiger]

31 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Not here it isn’t…overcast and damp cool 42 degrees..sucks. 

you missed out on the sunset!  yeah that sucks. way way above normal though, 41.3 here

[radarman]

4 minutes ago, radarman said:

Really we just had one... Maybe it gets some credit for the cold shot, but the overall pattern seems to have shrugged it off... I guess you keep playing the odds and hope it works out?

And frankly, I'm not really sure what they're seeing that makes them bullish about another one upcoming.  Wave 2 is dead.  Wave 3 is meh.

 

As an aside, those graphs show pretty nicely the wave 2 and wave 3 action preceding this last one

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, radarman said:

As an aside, those graphs show pretty nicely the wave 2 and wave 3 action preceding this last one

You need to read the post I put in above - particularly the bold statement.  

SSW doesn't mean anything to the mid latitudes of the planet if that is not happening.  The AO can be negative with or without the SSW factor constructively interfering ... but the correlation between SSW is 3 weeks, then a -AO ensues as the PV stabilizes.

[radarman]

18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

You need to read the post I put in above - particularly the bold statement.  

SSW doesn't mean anything to the mid latitudes of the planet if that is not happening.  The AO can be negative with or without the SSW factor constructively interfering ... but the correlation between SSW is 3 weeks, then a -AO ensues as the PV stabilizes.

Dude the delayed propagation downward is ssw 101.  Enough with the condescension please.  And the 3 weeks delay isn't accurate.  It's shorter than that, and even then only a rule of thumb.  One could argue that the strong HP right over the pole that caused the recent PV displacement was the direct result.  And it shows up in the zonally averaged Z Anom GPH graph I posted even though it was  not a big portion of the total >65N space.  We understand and appreciate that you're into this stuff but turns out you're not the only one.