February 2023 Obs/Discussion

[dendrite]

Euro was about to deliver sping d10

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

We'll get just enough compromise to give everyone advisory snow and ruin any fantasies of futility, but not enough for Kevin to be happy he was wrong.

GFS tried for a little.

His bet was a little crazy IMO, but hey...more power to him. 

[CoastalWx]

Man that is a torch on the EPS. Just after mid month.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Man that is a torch on the EPS. Just after mid month.

Yeah like I posted earlier about GFS/GGEM....signal is geting pretty good. You want to see that highest height anomalies shooting up into NNE and S Quebec for the true clean warm sector idea where we make a run at 70. It's hitting the same date too....Feb 17th.

[SJonesWX]

1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

This logic...

Then how do most areas in an around Presque isle have 20" or less on the ground?

Sublimation. Compaction. And much less so - melting. If it's not snowing, your pack is decreasing in size. Pretty simple. 

Anyway. Throw a ratio out there - it's a lot higher than 50%. 

dude-it has rained all the up through Pittsburg multiple times this season. they couldn't even open the snowmobile trails until late January (around the 20th) due to all the rain they got. i would say Pittsburg is prob around 50/50, and @dendrite is around 70/30 rain/snow for the season

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah like I posted earlier about GFS/GGEM....signal is geting pretty good. You want to see that highest height anomalies shooting up into NNE and S Quebec for the true clean warm sector idea where we make a run at 70. It's hitting the same date too....Feb 17th.

That is a toasty look for sure. Nice Bermuda high. Good SW flow and not off the waters due south of us. Torch verbatim. Looks like party ends that weekend.

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah like I posted earlier about GFS/GGEM....signal is geting pretty good. You want to see that highest height anomalies shooting up into NNE and S Quebec for the true clean warm sector idea where we make a run at 70. It's hitting the same date too....Feb 17th.

It's funny how this month is nearly following Feb 18. Some indications we break the chain. Let's hope it follows March 18 as well. 

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That is a toasty look for sure. Nice Bermuda high. Good SW flow and not off the waters due south of us. Torch verbatim. Looks like party ends that weekend.

Yeah it's not a 3-4 day chinook like 2017 , but even a day or two would be nice to dry things out some.

 

EPS trying to give an arctic shot right after it....lol.

[SouthCoastMA]

30 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It was way offshore yesterday and came well NW. Now it tickled SE a bit.

Would be somewhat interested if this was Euro of yore..but unfortunately now it likes to party with Ron Washington on occasion 

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

It's funny how this month is nearly following Feb 18. Some indications we break the chain. Let's hope it follows March 18 as well. 

 

 

We're prob not seeing any blocking like March 2018 walking through that door....but maybe we can pull a Mar 2017 or a late Feb/early Mar 2019 type pattern.

[SnoSki14]

34 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Euro was about to deliver sping d10

Spring is coming fast this year

[Damage In Tolland]

Who will hit 80!!

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Would be somewhat interested if this was Euro of yore..but unfortunately now it likes to party with Ron Washington on occasion 

In its defense, I don't really weight any model right now. So if it has the right idea, great. I'd have to see like two days of consistent solutions like that to buy in. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

In its defense, I don't really weight any model right now. So if it has the right idea, great. I'd have to see like two days of consistent solutions like that to buy in. 

Yeah it has beaten the GFS plenty of times...but it also gets beat regularly too...I basically weight the two evenly at this point. It's a synoptically ugly setup that requires a lot of things to go right, so best course of expectation is to assume nothing wintry will happen until the evidence becomes strong enough to think otherwise.

[mahk_webstah]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it has beaten the GFS plenty of times...but it also gets beat regularly too...I basically weight the two evenly at this point. It's a synoptically ugly setup that requires a lot of things to go right, so best course of expectation is to assume nothing wintry will happen until the evidence becomes strong enough to think otherwise.

My gut says this is fail for most, including me.  It doesn't have the feel of one that is coming together as the trends have not been clear, and mostly warm.  I'm ready to melt out for now, unless and until we can see a wintry stretch.

[Typhoon Tip]

30 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That is a toasty look for sure. Nice Bermuda high. Good SW flow and not off the waters due south of us. Torch verbatim. Looks like party ends that weekend.

Or whatever we wanna call it - good riddance ...

I'd rather 'reset' on the far side of the mid month - ...  The way I figure we got a 2 week window through about Mar 3, then we're in a bowling season ... which is like 60 F blase' faire days that could April '97.

haha...  can you imagine that, 35" of blue to make the season average -

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Who will hit 80!!

That’s the DIT enthusiasm we’ve been missing this winter.  Will throws out a shot at 70F and the response is wondering about 80F.

Usually in winter it’s Will saying “this is how we get 6-12…” and the DIT response is, “Who will get 18-24?”

This year it’s about playing up the warmth.

[Typhoon Tip]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it has beaten the GFS plenty of times...but it also gets beat regularly too...I basically weight the two evenly at this point. It's a synoptically ugly setup that requires a lot of things to go right, so best course of expectation is to assume nothing wintry will happen until the evidence becomes strong enough to think otherwise.

I wrote a paragraph to some other poster with a weird handle like Djii l-m-n-o-p or whatever, earlier about this.

This seems a little different this time. The handling has been too on or off, more wholesale, with whether additional cyclogen will exist along the upper MA at the end of the week.  It's not usually like that  and it makes me wonder about assimilation.  

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Or whatever we wanna call it - good riddance ...

I'd rather 'reset' on the far side of the mid month - ...  The way I figure we got a 2 week window through about Mar 3, then we're in a bowling season ... which is like 60 F blase' faire days that could April.

haha...  can you imagine that, 35" of blue to make the season average -

I know it seems like we all want a torch, but none of us really do. We all want snow deep down...it's early Feb for Christ sake. However, as Will has said....if it's going to be bare and really no chance of snow anytime soon...we might as well get some good weather (50s etc). 

I am all for a good stretch if we can muster it up. We really have 8+ weeks of lousy weather before any good signs of Spring....and you know how April can go. So yeah...if we ever can get a good stretch going...I am all in. But man...that is like pulling teeth lately. I've never seen a pattern like this look half decent on paper, but produce such abysmal results. This isn't a black hole that stretches from the Bering Sea into the PAC NW. At least when we see those, we know it's over. This has been one hell of a head scratcher.

[SnowGoose69]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it has beaten the GFS plenty of times...but it also gets beat regularly too...I basically weight the two evenly at this point. It's a synoptically ugly setup that requires a lot of things to go right, so best course of expectation is to assume nothing wintry will happen until the evidence becomes strong enough to think otherwise.

You'd think with the first system going through and the general screaming progression to the pattern that the Euro/CMC/Icon idea of the next low being east is likely more accurate than the GFS taking it inland, that said the wildly amped up Euro idea is probably wrong.  The CMC/Icon of a nothing system is more likely

[HIPPYVALLEY]

32 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it's not a 3-4 day chinook like 2017 , but even a day or two would be nice to dry things out some.

 

EPS trying to give an arctic shot right after it....lol.

Great, nice burst of warmth to really bud the fruit trees and then arctic plunge. 

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I know it seems like we all want a torch, but none of us really do. We all want snow deep down...it's early Feb for Christ sake. However, as Will has said....if it's going to be bare and really no chance of snow anytime soon...we might as well get some good weather (50s etc). 

I am all for a good stretch if we can muster it up. We really have 8+ weeks of lousy weather before any good signs of Spring....and you know how April can go. So yeah...if we ever can get a good stretch going...I am all in. But man...that is like pulling teeth lately. I've never seen a pattern like this look half decent on paper, but produce such abysmal results. This isn't a black hole that stretches from the Bering Sea into the PAC NW. At least when we see those, we know it's over. This has been one hell of a head scratcher.

The bold is it in a nut shell.  Yup -

I said almost the exact thing in internal monologue earlier today - we are verifying signals really well, but the results have been just about 0%.   Very bizarre.  There is a storm signal on the EC that's been there for 2 weeks, really.  But it's probably going to be too late and clobbering the Maritime region instead.  It's solid signal with nothing to show for it.

It's the persistence in doing that, specifically too.   The Buffalo Bomb.  Again... huge signal, verified ... by soring butts.   w   t    f

I guess the frustration there is that yeah...signals don't guarantee a result - we all know that.  But, never ?  You'd expect after 15 or 20 signals show up, 1 mother f'er would...

[Typhoon Tip]

20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it has beaten the GFS plenty of times...but it also gets beat regularly too...I basically weight the two evenly at this point. It's a synoptically ugly setup that requires a lot of things to go right, so best course of expectation is to assume nothing wintry will happen until the evidence becomes strong enough to think otherwise.

Lol.... like, the way this winter is going, that evidence will have to be yesterday - seems like this year could pull off the quantum uncertainty of snowing 13"/hour while it's plain rain.

[Ginx snewx]

36 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We're prob not seeing any blocking like March 2018 walking through that door....but maybe we can pull a Mar 2017 or a late Feb/early Mar 2019 type pattern.

Nice vortex split. Figure 3 weeks to see.

[forkyfork]

this is like when a late stage cancer patient tries alternative medicine 

[ORH_wxman]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I know it seems like we all want a torch, but none of us really do. We all want snow deep down...it's early Feb for Christ sake. However, as Will has said....if it's going to be bare and really no chance of snow anytime soon...we might as well get some good weather (50s etc). 

I am all for a good stretch if we can muster it up. We really have 8+ weeks of lousy weather before any good signs of Spring....and you know how April can go. So yeah...if we ever can get a good stretch going...I am all in. But man...that is like pulling teeth lately. I've never seen a pattern like this look half decent on paper, but produce such abysmal results. This isn't a black hole that stretches from the Bering Sea into the PAC NW. At least when we see those, we know it's over. This has been one hell of a head scratcher.

Murphy's Law this season....when we actually got blocking and lower heights in December for that 18 day window, they didn't produce shit (in our backyard at least). Then the PV decided to sit its ass over in Siberia for the better part of a month with only a brief visit back over here recently....and during the times the PV was over here, we haven't produced any snow events anyway.

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Lol.... like, the way this winter is going, that evidence will have to be yesterday - seems like this year could pull off the quantum uncertainty of snowing 13"/hour while it's plain rain.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Winds are brisk, was not expecting.  30+ mph gusts

[WinterWolf]

Not to nice out there now..sun gone and breezy. Too warm to snow, too cold to be enjoyable. Sucks. 

[Typhoon Tip]

10 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Not to nice out there now..sun gone and breezy. Too warm to snow, too cold to be enjoyable. Sucks. 

heh...as a morbid experiment... if you took every day's worth of temperature and cloud cover averages for this winter, and averaged them out, I bet that mean would look and feel just exactly like right at this moment.  

This ... this is our winter, 2022-2023  lol