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February 2023 Obs/Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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13 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I don’t think he is at 85/15 or close but maybe I’m wrong 

No, you are correct....there is a zero percent chance dendrite's frozen to liquid ratio this winter is anywhere close to 85/15.....if it was, he'd have like 4 feet on the ground. The biggest difference over the interior there is they don't melt out due to exceptionally strong CAD while the coast torches.

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Just now, WinterWolf said:

No slush in N. Maine…further south maybe? 

Yeah up by CAR is different world....even back toward Jackman is. But getting down into the lakes region of western ME further south has struggled with milder temps keeping water bars open, etc.

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2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Nothing to track until severe season?

 

Oh, wait,  there’s nothing to track then either. 

This winter has given us snow lovers a good glimpse into what severe wx lovers in New England feel like every year.

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I'd watch Feb 17ish for Tip's potential warm burst...showing up decently on both GFS/GGEM today. Hard to get a clean warm sector, but both have a decent high well southeast of the Atlantic which is what you kind of want to see. You don't want to see any highs lurking up to the north which is almost always a sign of warm sector failure....at least a clean warm sector.

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58 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

No, you are correct....there is a zero percent chance dendrite's frozen to liquid ratio this winter is anywhere close to 85/15.....if it was, he'd have like 4 feet on the ground. The biggest difference over the interior there is they don't melt out due to exceptionally strong CAD while the coast torches.

This logic...

Then how do most areas in an around Presque isle have 20" or less on the ground?

Sublimation. Compaction. And much less so - melting. If it's not snowing, your pack is decreasing in size. Pretty simple. 

Anyway. Throw a ratio out there - it's a lot higher than 50%. 

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It was way offshore yesterday and came well NW. Now it tickled SE a bit.

We'll get just enough compromise to give everyone advisory snow and ruin any fantasies of futility, but not enough for Kevin to be happy he was wrong. :lol:

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