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February 2023 Obs/Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Definitely need to dry it out. Back to mud again.

Haven't had mud yet. Ground has to be frozen deep hearing about all the service lines freezing up. Worst possible time for way below zero. No snow cover ground saturated from month of rain.  I was wondering what effect will it have on all those bugs good and bad underground. Unprecedented timing and historical cold on bare wet ground.  Will be interesting to see.

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3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Haven't had mud yet. Ground has to be frozen deep hearing about all the service lines freezing up. Worst possible time for way below zero. No snow cover ground saturated from month of rain.  I was wondering what effect will it have on all those bugs good and bad underground. Unprecedented timing and historical cold on bare wet ground.  Will be interesting to see.

I noticed a very strong smell of soil this morning while out....and I smelled it all over town, so I don't think it was a local construction job or anything. I was wondering if it was the thaw after the it froze down a few inches this weekend.

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18 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Haven't had mud yet. Ground has to be frozen deep hearing about all the service lines freezing up. Worst possible time for way below zero. No snow cover ground saturated from month of rain.  I was wondering what effect will it have on all those bugs good and bad underground. Unprecedented timing and historical cold on bare wet ground.  Will be interesting to see.

Goes to show how important deep pack is. My 4" depth is 33F and 8" depth 34F.

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<45F and rain does suck; but 45F sun, with no wind is pleasant in February. Just find your spot in the sun and the real feel is 10 degrees warmer. Yesterday with a high of 48 was one of those days. Lots of sun and no wind, fully compensated for the temp and dry dews.

I will take. 

45-55F winds and sun make or break it.  

Today is also decent. Was just outside with a fleece and hat. Perfect in the sun. 

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3 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

<45F and rain does suck; but 45F sun, with no wind is pleasant in February. Just find your spot in the sun and the real feel is 10 degrees warmer. Yesterday with a high of 48 was one of those days. Lots of sun and no wind, fully compensated for the temp and the dry dews.

I will take. 

45-55F winds and sun make or break it.  

It's another world down there in the tropics of SE NH. You make me feel like I'm in Coos sometimes.

020623by.jpg

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My pack is a literal glacier.  Between 5" and 9" in spots, my official depth is 7" (at least) and has been since the last significant snowfall on 1/23.  There must be 4" of liquid in the pack.


We had an 1" on 1/25, then again on 1/31, but my depth has been locked since the 23rd.  That event did include 2" of pure sleet, though.

The nearly 3" of rain that fell on the 1/25 only brought the pack from 12" to 10", and eventually to 8" the following day.  

 

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10 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I'm only at 615ft.

150 miles north for every 1000 ft in elevation. Figure 75 miles in your case, correcting for altitude.

Conservatively, you're more like 100 miles north of PSM. And that only puts us on the same plane; doesn't account for the ocean affects.

Yea, in short, it's a huge difference in climate...

I have had more non-frozen precip than frozen this season. And I'm in Dover.  Portsmouth is like 15/85, frozen/liquid; whereas you have been more like 85/15 frozen/liquid season to date. And most of that for you is snow.

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Mixed emotions... 

Like, light or no wind moments in post Feb 8..10th sun, in 48 F, is remarkably sexy to the senses ...and in that soothe the last thing I want is protracted winter.  

But, then later that evening ...the new runs come out with an 1888er out there, and the only thing I wanna see is a cold source available to the vision.

I can turn it on or off pretty quickly when either bias is believable.  

As an aside, February's remind me of the antithesis of August.   You can be sitting in close to triple digit heat on Aug 15, and mere weeks later ... some anomalous cold plume has grapple and air that smells like snow.  You can't say that if it's a hot day in May... 

The same sort of 'seasonal boundary' effect happens going the other way.  Not this year... but it is conceivable to be logging a real winter, and be in a gelid winter storm scenario on the 20th of the February ... and be 80 mere weeks later.   You can't really say that in December. 

Aug and Feb are like unsung boundary months ... For those that are in tune to that affect, knowing that a different world is 'right there,' or could be.  I remember one year recently we had a March Nor'easter. It came in at 27 or so F, with S+, and some wind kicked in toward mid morning. The event totals ~ 10"  Just when it was going to get special, the temp pushed toward 32..33 and snow type went wetter - the invisibility improved... Then there was a couple of flashes of lightning ... We stayed snow and ended dripping at 34F, but I remember the thunder snow like it was more so an homage to this affect. It was like warm season trying to crowd into the event - just symbolic thinking of course...  I think it was finally pushing 70 a week later for the first profound effort to leave that year's cold season.  2017 maybe ?  

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8 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

150 miles north for every 1000 ft in elevation. Figure 75 miles in your case, correcting for altitude.

Conservatively, you're more like 100 miles north of PSM. And that only puts us on the same plane; doesn't account for the ocean affects.

Yea, in short, it's a huge difference in climate...

I have had more non-frozen precip than frozen this season. And I'm in Dover.  Portsmouth is like 15/85, frozen/liquid; whereas you have been more like 85/15 frozen/liquid season to date. And most of that for you is snow.

I don’t think he is at 85/15 or close but maybe I’m wrong 

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25 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

<45F and rain does suck; but 45F sun, with no wind is pleasant in February. Just find your spot in the sun and the real feel is 10 degrees warmer. Yesterday with a high of 48 was one of those days. Lots of sun and no wind, fully compensated for the temp and dry dews.

I will take. 

45-55F winds and sun make or break it.  

Today is also decent. Was just outside with a fleece and hat. Perfect in the sun. 

Lucky sun's gone here but just a tee on although wind is picking up making it colder. Little nip in the air lad.

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12 minutes ago, DJln491 said:

that 12z GFS run must be bad.  not one mention of it.  or I guess it's probably just the same

Yeah.. the three run trend got summarily shut down.  Some guidance were inching back with the week's end event, but all that work over the last 3 .. 4 cycles just got dashed.  

It seems, however, that we are flip flopping with the amount of actual trough mechanics coming off the Pacific.  It seems about every 3rd or so group of runs has been carrying more or less trough potency across the continental mid latitudes. That strikes me as - maybe - data assimilation irregularities.  The governing total mechanical space is entirely contained over the open Pacific expanse until 36+ hours from now. 

This used to be much more of a factor up through about 10 or so years ago, assimilation and detection in data sparse regions. But improvements in assimilation became pretty notable around that time - since then...we don't see as much corrections upon relay off the ocean over western North America.  That being true, it doesn't lend to assimilation irregularities being the cause presently.  Still, these are really quite notable on-off back and forths in handling for some reason. 

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