February 2023 Obs/Discussion

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That's what we used to call a "Montreal Express"  ... it's a particularly nasty delivery because it's so direct.  There's a little down slope, but other than that - which is overwhelmed by that magnitude of cold anyway... - the delivery avoids the subtle modulation of the continent and/or Lakes from deliveries that arrive first west and then come east.   There's not a lot of time or means to moderate the cold plume - it's like hello 60 North!

00z ICONoclastic model had that at the end of its run, but backed off considerably on the 12z.   The 06z GFS had it but not as arresting as this 12z version. 

GGEM has the Feb first week storm ... and really just offers and entirely different landscape in that D8 -10 range.  

 

Yeah a large majority of our cold records are from this type of delivery....for the reasons you stated. Typically the mid-atlantic and places further west will get their best cold shots from down through the lakes (partly because they are too far southwest to get the more northerly delivery), but ours do much better when coming out of that Ottawa/Montreal corridor.

[Spanks45]

10 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

That would be so fitting. Rains to maines all winter and then congrats myrtle beach 

Gfs blows the cold load all at once, like we did around Christmas. And here we are still waiting for the cold air to rebuild and move into our region a month later. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Looks like that Valentines Day cold shot a few winters ago that got down to -15 or so. It was like a 36 hour in and out deal. At least for that we had snow OTG from a storm a few days prior. 

[Paleocene]

2 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

If you are a snow lover in the mid Atlantic how do you even maintain a semblance of happiness , there should be some psychological studies that look at developing coping mechanisms and maybe society can benefit from the way these folks have adapted , assuming they aren’t miserable 

Butting in; we do not maintain a semblance of happiness and we are all depressed. Our forum has been mostly a complete disaster since the "epic pattern" and "brutal cold" before christmas produced light flurries and high temps in the high 20s.  But then we get a KU every 7 years and we're ok. 0.0" for the year

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Looks like that Valentines Day cold shot a few winters ago that got down to -15 or so. It was like a 36 hour in and out deal. At least for that we had snow OTG from a storm a few days prior. 

That was 2016…the super Nino. An island of record cold amidst an inferno for the most part.  Mid Atlantic did get the historic blizzard in January, abd I got about 10 inches from the northern fringe. I don’t remember snow on the ground though during that cold shot.  

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

That was 2016…the super Nino. An island of record cold amidst an inferno for the most part.  Mid Atlantic did get the historic blizzard in January, abd I got about 10 inches from the northern fringe. I don’t remember snow on the ground though during that cold shot.  

We had some snow showers and a few squalls prior. I had just under an inch of fluff that sublimated lol.

[ORH_wxman]

I'm all-in on the OP GFS massive NAO block near the end of the run.

[WinterWolf]

Let’s moderate the cold shot(we know it will  be much less intense than what is depicted now), and bring the storm up a lil more north, that would make everyone happy. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

We had some snow showers and a few squalls prior. I had just under an inch of fluff that sublimated lol.

There was more than that on the ground....we had a decent event on 2/8 and it stayed cold until the arctic shot on Vday. I actually still had a bunch OTG too from the 2/5 event as well.

We did get those squalls a couple days before too, but they were on top of existing snowpack IIRC.

[Go Kart Mozart]

4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I have my doubts there's going to be any kind of "March" this year.

What's your thinking on this....giant meteor in late February?

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We had some snow showers and a few squalls prior. I had just under an inch of fluff that sublimated lol.

Ya a few squall’s, but zero cover here that I remember. And it was still a brutal weekend that’s for sure. It was impressive. Had we had a good cover, it really would have been off the charts. 

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm all-in on the OP GFS massive NAO block near the end of the run.

Oh no..that again? Lol. It did zero for us a month ago. But I guess we can roll the dice some more right. 

[WxWatcher007]

You call that a cold shot? Please.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Oh no..that again? Lol. It did zero for us a month ago. But I guess we can roll the dice some more right. 

This time source region to our north is cold on the GFS. 

[Volcanic Winter]

5 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

What's your thinking on this....giant meteor in late February?

Probably thinking the New England magma body erupts early. Probably won’t be a good time for the area… in a few million years. 
 

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/11/171130094142.htm

[Sey-Mour Snow]

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ya a few squall’s, but zero cover here that I remember. And it was still a brutal weekend that’s for sure. It was impressive. Had we had a good cover, it really would have been off the charts. 

We had solid snow cover, here’s a pic from that morning.  We had 2 snow events of 3-6” that week. 

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There was more than that on the ground....we had a decent event on 2/8 and it stayed cold until the arctic shot on Vday. I actually still had a bunch OTG too from the 2/5 event as well.

We did get those squalls a couple days before too, but they were on top of existing snowpack IIRC.

I think there was around 8-10” Otg 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

We had solid snow cover, here’s a pic from that morning.  We had 2 snow events of 3-6” that week. 

 

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I think there was around 8-10” Otg 

Ok, I stand corrected. Thanks boys. 

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This time source region to our north is cold on the GFS. 

Ok..we take IF it happens. 

[WhitinsvilleWX]

54 days till spring

[RedSky]

2 minutes ago, WhitinsvilleWX said:

54 days till spring

34 days to meteorological spring

 

[WhitinsvilleWX]

Just now, RedSky said:

34 days to meteorological spring

 

That too. 

My kind of winter. A little mood snow, not much cold. 

[George001]

4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I have my doubts there's going to be any kind of "March" this year.

How come

[Damage In Tolland]

28 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

 

Ok, I stand corrected. Thanks boys. 

That was another pretty crappy winter. You simply can’t get any worse than this one we are living thru But that kind of cold did a lot of damage to the shrubs and flowering buds as I recall 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Gfs suppresses everything then rips a low through NNE . Literally can’t win.

CMC same kind of idea 

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That was another pretty crappy winter. You simply can’t get any worse than this one we are living they.  . But that kind of cold did a lot of damage to the shrubs and flowering buds as I recall 

A bunch of orchards around here got bad damage from that cold shot. PArticularly the peach trees.

[Typhoon Tip]

30 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

What's your thinking on this....giant meteor in late February?

at this point ?  - perhaps puts us out of our misery

[dendrite]

Can't recall seeing 18z 2m temps modeled that low here before. Hope it moderates a lot.

[UnitedWx]

34 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm all-in on the OP GFS massive NAO block near the end of the run.

We all realize it will most likely materialize around about April 1st... and last most of the month

[WhitinsvilleWX]

At least there's no Stein talk