MJO812 Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 Next weekends storm is most likely done. The models had the first storm weaker and much further east which would drag the trough east to make room for the 2nd storm to come up the storm. Now the models are showing the 1st storm stronger and much further west which is bad for the 2nd storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: So nailing the former has a greater impact than nailing the latter. I wasn’t debating whether or not -10F in EMA has a greater impact than 6-12”. You have no idea on impact. The biggest population center of New England (with a large homeless census) had under forecasted cold which resulted in a huge human and economic impact. 0 in EMA happens a lot. -10 once a generation. If you read the cold thread you’d see the impact. Snow rarely causes the misery cold does because it occurs ironically in moderately cold conditions. When that is an exception the impact is enormous (see Buffalo). Snow is almost always forecasted with enough time for the population to react. It’s almost never much of a problem 36 hours after it stops snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: It should probably be in top 5 for ORH too but I’ve always been skeptical of their identical 10.1” measurements at exactly 10 to 1 QPF for both Feb 6 and 7 1978. Also observed snow depth went from 10” to 30” exactly matching the “storm total”. This tells me it was estimated after the storm ended. All of the evidence I’ve seen points me to about 26-28” at ORH in that storm. But unfortunately that’s what goes into the climate record. I didn't see this before I posted below. There's many accounts of +- 2 feet in '78 in areas of western CT and yet all the official measurements seem low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 46 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: And many were so worried over the lack of it in the summeh lol Just can’t take anymore rain . Another 2 months of it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 32 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Feb 4th with less than 4 inches to go BDL ORH for cripes sake. Good luck man . Gonna need it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Just can’t take anymore rain . Another 2 months of it Another 2 months? Try another 10 more months. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherWilly Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 Rain is the only game in town, because it refuses to snow the few days when it's actually cold enough. Not looking forward to how hot and humid the summers are getting around here now. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 9 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Another 2 months? Try another 10 more months. Well no. It will get Uber dry starting in Napril. Very hot dry summer with huge dews in Aug- Sept 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Well no. It will get Uber dry starting in Napril. Very hot dry summer with huge dews in Aug- Sept Swamp ass sucks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 9 minutes ago, WeatherWilly said: Rain is the only game in town, because it refuses to snow the few days when it's actually cold enough. Not looking forward to how hot and humid the summers are getting around here now. Looking forward to a furnace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Good luck man . Gonna need it 3in snow mean at orh through the end of the run on the eps. Pathetic 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 4 minutes ago, Allsnow said: 3in snow mean at orh through the end of the run on the eps. Pathetic And even in a snowy winter.. that # always means 0. You’d want to see a mean of 8-10 to expect a chance of 1-3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: And even in a snowy winter.. that # always means 0. You’d want to see a mean of 8-10 to expect a chance of 1-3 Yup. its been 0-1 down here all winter and we have .4 to show for it lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 57 minutes ago, Allsnow said: February 2021 was good in that area but it’s sandwiched between lots of clunkers Yeah I knew Feb 2021 was epic in NNJ but theyve been undersold badly outside of that month for a while. They are due for one of those stretches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 GFS looks whacky. The first storm heads through Detroit towards Buffalo, while the second forms over Davenport? I suppose there is a jet entrance there, but we have a ways to go before we throw in the towel. I would think a development much further to the south is possible. At least we have a Rockies Ridge and eastern trough going for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 20 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Yup. its been 0-1 down here all winter and we have .4 to show for it lol Difference is he needs ORH to get less than 4 inches for the rest of the entire winter to win an even money bet. He seems to not be aware that even in a horrific january pattern, they got over a foot. He keeps saying “the pattern will just continue to suck”….well yeah, that could totally be true but it still doesn’t mean you bet money it won’t snow again at 1000 feet over the interior…lol. Its not good pattern over the next 10-15 days but it could easily still snow a few inches. I also think there’s going to be a more favorable pattern later this month. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Difference is he needs ORH to get less than 4 inches for the rest of the entire winter to win an even money bet. He seems to not be aware that even in a horrific january pattern, they got over a foot. He keeps saying “the pattern will just continue to suck”….well yeah, that could totally be true but it still doesn’t mean you bet money it won’t snow again at 1000 feet over the interior…lol. It’s not good pattern over the next 10-15 days but it could easily still snow a few inches. I also think there’s going to be a more favorable pattern later this month. The bet is both ORH and BDL. ORH couid get a 3 foot storm .. but if BDL doesn’t get 4”.. the bet is won. You act as if this is what I want or am rooting for . I want snow . I want to lose. But I also feel very confident that we are done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: The bet is both ORH and BDL. ORH couid get a 3 foot storm .. but if BDL doesn’t get 4”.. the bet is won. You act as if this is what I want or am rooting for . I want snow . I want to lose. But I also feel very confident that we are done Oh I was pretty sure when you and Ginxy made the bet it had to be both that failed for you to win. Its still a terrible bet for BDL but obviously they have a better chance of failing than ORH does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Oh I was pretty sure when you and Ginxy made the bet it had to be both that failed for you to win. Its still a terrible bet for BDL but obviously they have a better chance of failing than ORH does. The bet I thought I made was that both needed to measure 4” for Ginx to win. That was what I thought the bet was . I wouldn’t have made it for just ORH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Next weekends storm is most likely done. The models had the first storm weaker and much further east which would drag the trough east to make room for the 2nd storm to come up the storm. Now the models are showing the 1st storm stronger and much further west which is bad for the 2nd storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 This thread is a mess. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 Just assume rain with every event until something otherwise appears imminent. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 Hopefully NH gets that crushing ice storm on the 18z gfs! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 Just now, CoastalWx said: This winter is a mess. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 1 minute ago, Torch Tiger said: Hopefully NH gets that crushing ice storm on the 18z gfs! Hopefully north of me...no thanks. Dnt care for days of power loss with a new born and two toddlers. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 Funny how the past two epic cold air masses have each occured in terd winters...2015-2016 and this year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: The bet I thought I made was that both needed to measure 4” for Ginx to win. That was what I thought the bet was . I wouldn’t have made it for just ORH Why wouldn’t you just make the bet for BDL then? BDL isn’t getting 4”+ the rest of the season while ORH gets skunked. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Why wouldn’t you just make the bet for BDL then? BDL isn’t getting 4”+ the rest of the season while ORH gets skunked. I saw they were both close to or at 4” needed to not have the least snowiest winter ever . When I saw that, and how the winter futility has gone , pattern persistence and my view of what I see the pattern looking like thru Morch 31.. that is why I made the bet . Maybe it was foolish .. it’s not like I am rooting against snow. No one is a bigger snow lover than me .. I just see a favorable pattern thru end of Morch of more futility . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 36 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I knew Feb 2021 was epic in NNJ but theyve been undersold badly outside of that month for a while. They are due for one of those stretches. Absolutely. I remember as a kid in the 90’s I would have extreme jealousy for those areas, as I was on the jersey shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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